04-10-2024, 12:56 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2024, 01:06 PM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
We're halfway through the season now, and very few things are set in stone. Baltimore's very much in the driver's seat for the first seed in the NSFC, San Jose and Arizona are probably safe for the playoffs, but otherwise, almost anything and everything could happen over the final 8 weeks of the season.
Let's start with the worst race, as in the race for the worst record.
1 Overall Pick
Contenders:
Other Possibilities:
If not for a walkoff victory on Monday, the Silverbacks might be a stronger contender for the 1st pick in the draft than anyone thought, with head to head games against HON and BER. But now it really feels like it's down to 2 teams with an outside shot at a third. Berlin is disadvantaged in the hunt for last mainly due to the extra win, but they still have a path; it involves Honolulu winning the head to head on Wednesday and then dropping their own game to Colorado on Friday. Really though, this seems like it was always going to come down to the DSFL all star team from last season in Honolulu and the team that sold off half of the talent left on an already untalented roster in Colorado. With that in mind, I feel like this is Colorado's to win, or rather to lose. After Honolulu ended their run of winless games with an upset victory in the Aquarium Color Rush over Yellowknife, they both have one win and play each other in Week 9.
By most people's calculations, Colorado is the worse team and also has the advantage of playing away in the Tank Bowl. They've also played far, far worse than Honolulu in sim, even before Monday's games and Honolulu's first win. As such it seems likely that Colorado will come out of Week 9 with the first overall pick all but in the bag. But if they don't, they're in a ton of trouble for 1st overall. The Hahalua have faced basically all of their even somewhat easy competition and the only games that seem like more than the longest shot of wins are vs Austin and maybe at New York. Colorado, meanwhile, has a few games where you could easily see them picking up wins, partially thanks to the much weaker conference. Most notably, they've got a home game against the Fire Salamanders and a home game against the Wraiths. And if the Wraiths lose to Colorado in Colorado, that's only going to be their 2nd most shocking and inexplicable loss to Colorado of the year.
It's notable that Honolulu just pulled off a trade that makes their passing attack significantly worse, and one that I'm pretty sure applies to the upcoming Colorado game. Exchanging their current WR1 for a guy who will get on the field as a fringe, 300 TPE WR3 could easily make the difference in their battle for Number One Draft Pick.
NSFC Playoff Spots 2 and 3
Contenders:
The above is in order of smilie on site, in case you were wondering.
What a pile of garbage. It seems likely at this point that a playoff team in the NSFC will be a below average team by roster construction, by performance in the sim, or both at this point. Starting from the bottom by record, we have the Crash. Currently a game out of the playoffs and 2 games out of the 2nd seed, the Crash are most notable for boasting the highest point differential among these 4 teams. They're also the best in a few other ways out of this group; average TPE, most TPE, best Casino projections, but they still have the worst record. Why? Well, there's a good reason and a bad reason. The good reason is that the Crash have had a really hard schedule and rolled snake eyes on winning any of their more winnable games; dropping games such as at Sarasota and at New York are both explainable purely on testing, they had difficult games such as vs Arizona and at Baltimore in their first half...then there's the bad reason: losing to Chicago in Chicago. Still, it seems likely that the Crash should be able to at least get into a playoff spot; besides being the best team on paper, they also only have 3 games that should be at all difficult the rest of the season, in their away matchups to Yellowknife and San Jose and their home game against Baltimore. Their only other away game is against the Fire Salamanders.
Next up is the Sailfish, the worst team in terms of point differential among these four and arguably the single worst situated team; the team that was considered worse heading into the season has both made trades and has one more win than them in the Butchers. Sarasota absolutely could crater out of the playoff push shortly; their next 4 games are all varying levels of difficult. They might be in the middle of the single most difficult stretch any team has this season, and they still have away games to Baltimore and New Orleans followed by home games against Orange County and Yellowknife to finish said stretch. Their away game against the Crash late in the season is likely to be exceedingly difficult as well. It seems incredibly likely that the Sailfish wind up in the 5th spot in the conference at this point.
The Wraiths currently hold the 3rd seed in the conference, but hold the distinct title of being the most embarrassing and least confident team in the entire league. The team has one good win, and to be fair blowing out the Hawks in Baltimore for their one loss so far on the season is a great win. But other than that, you have a single possession win at home against the Sailfish which took until the final minute to actually score, the exact same circumstance against Austin, also at home, and let up over 30 points against the Fire Salamanders even discounting the garbage time score, a mark that not even the Colorado Yeti let the team reach. Of course, for as mediocre and awful as the Wraiths' wins are, their losses are somehow worse. Losing by 2 possessions against the Butchers at home? Losing by 3 possessions to the Crash away and only scoring 8? Giving Honolulu their first win of the season? Giving Colorado THEIR first win of the season, at HOME? This is a team where I should be comfortable with at least their away games against Colorado and Berlin, but excuse me if I feel like this team could disappoint me and all their users again by losing to a bottom 3 team for the 3rd time this season. Otherwise, they've got a bevy of terrible matchups; at Chicago is winnable but also very losable, same with at Sarasota, they've got home games against the Sabercats, the Crash, and the Hawks left, and they also end their season in an away trip to Arizona. I feel like the Wraiths are thus my prediction for 4th in the conference.
The Butchers should not be here. They should arguably be where the Crash are if not worse. But, whether by hook, by crook, or by stupid sim blessing a team over and over again, Chicago has the inside track to at least a playoff berth. They have the schedule to do it, too; only 3 away games, all against competition that, albeit not exactly easy, is not too difficult; out of the Crash, the Silverbacks, and the Sailfish, I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to only be heavy dogs against Cape Town. Their home matchups also contain the two near freebies of Berlin and Colorado. For Chicago to miss the playoffs, they'd need to actually start losing the away games that they should be uncompetitive in, and also drop the winnable home games against the Copperheads and the Wraiths. Judging by how the season has gone so far, I think it's more likely that Chicago beats Baltimore at home than that Chicago actually misses the playoffs from this position. They even made a trade recently to improve their team dramatically.
ASFC 3rd Seed
Contenders:
One of these teams is going to look at...probably the Butchers, and be extremely annoyed with the fact that they're in the ASFC.
New Orleans has the inside track to the playoffs at this point, despite their status as 4th in the conference at this moment. They only have 1 away game left in the season worth discussing at all, and while it's probably safe to assume that Arizona wins that matchup, NOLA's good enough to win it for sure. Thanks to finishing 6th in the conference last season, NOLA's been blessed with an easy out of conference schedule that means they do probably lose a tiebreak if it gets down to that; I don't see NOLA losing to the Sailfish at home or Colorado away. There are difficult home games still on the docket for NOLA, most notably San Jose and Orange County themselves, but the team is good enough to probably be favored in both of those with the home field advantage. New Orleans has had a couple close calls that might make them jumpy, but close doesn't matter in this sim.
Orange County, meanwhile, just suffered an unforgivable loss against the Butchers that leaves them tied in record and with a much, much harder schedule from here on out. Their away game against an NSFC opponent is the Sailfish instead of the Yeti, and their home game is against Baltimore instead of Sarasota. Granted, I'd still probably favor the Otters in both of those games, but that's a much harder pair of games than the Second Line will face. They have a possibly tricky away day to the Copperheads, and the same likely loss away to Arizona. Not to mention that the head to head matchup between these two is going to be in NOLA. This team is more than good enough to make the playoffs from this position, but as is it feels like NOLA's going to make their first playoff game in nearly 10 seasons. That being said, a single bad loss one way or another really changes the math between these two.
ASFC 1st Seed
Competitors:
As I type, San Jose is in the first seed due to upsetting the Outlaws in Arizona. That being said, this still feels like it could come down to whoever blinks in the 2nd matchup between the two. San Jose has more games that I feel they will be dogs in outside of that; away games against NOLA and Orange County will probably see them as underdogs, and they have matchups they might be favored in by little in their home game against Cape Town and their away game against Yellowknife. Arizona, meanwhile, has an away day against Baltimore, but faces the toughest teams in their conference at home during the 2nd half of the season...outside of San Jose. In Week 15, these two clash, and it feels likely that whoever wins will seal the tiebreaker and the 1st seed. Due to taking place in San Jose, this feels very much like the Sabercats to lose, but they do have more games that I'd describe as tricky on their schedule than Arizona.
Let's start with the worst race, as in the race for the worst record.
1 Overall Pick
Contenders:
Other Possibilities:
If not for a walkoff victory on Monday, the Silverbacks might be a stronger contender for the 1st pick in the draft than anyone thought, with head to head games against HON and BER. But now it really feels like it's down to 2 teams with an outside shot at a third. Berlin is disadvantaged in the hunt for last mainly due to the extra win, but they still have a path; it involves Honolulu winning the head to head on Wednesday and then dropping their own game to Colorado on Friday. Really though, this seems like it was always going to come down to the DSFL all star team from last season in Honolulu and the team that sold off half of the talent left on an already untalented roster in Colorado. With that in mind, I feel like this is Colorado's to win, or rather to lose. After Honolulu ended their run of winless games with an upset victory in the Aquarium Color Rush over Yellowknife, they both have one win and play each other in Week 9.
By most people's calculations, Colorado is the worse team and also has the advantage of playing away in the Tank Bowl. They've also played far, far worse than Honolulu in sim, even before Monday's games and Honolulu's first win. As such it seems likely that Colorado will come out of Week 9 with the first overall pick all but in the bag. But if they don't, they're in a ton of trouble for 1st overall. The Hahalua have faced basically all of their even somewhat easy competition and the only games that seem like more than the longest shot of wins are vs Austin and maybe at New York. Colorado, meanwhile, has a few games where you could easily see them picking up wins, partially thanks to the much weaker conference. Most notably, they've got a home game against the Fire Salamanders and a home game against the Wraiths. And if the Wraiths lose to Colorado in Colorado, that's only going to be their 2nd most shocking and inexplicable loss to Colorado of the year.
It's notable that Honolulu just pulled off a trade that makes their passing attack significantly worse, and one that I'm pretty sure applies to the upcoming Colorado game. Exchanging their current WR1 for a guy who will get on the field as a fringe, 300 TPE WR3 could easily make the difference in their battle for Number One Draft Pick.
NSFC Playoff Spots 2 and 3
Contenders:
The above is in order of smilie on site, in case you were wondering.
What a pile of garbage. It seems likely at this point that a playoff team in the NSFC will be a below average team by roster construction, by performance in the sim, or both at this point. Starting from the bottom by record, we have the Crash. Currently a game out of the playoffs and 2 games out of the 2nd seed, the Crash are most notable for boasting the highest point differential among these 4 teams. They're also the best in a few other ways out of this group; average TPE, most TPE, best Casino projections, but they still have the worst record. Why? Well, there's a good reason and a bad reason. The good reason is that the Crash have had a really hard schedule and rolled snake eyes on winning any of their more winnable games; dropping games such as at Sarasota and at New York are both explainable purely on testing, they had difficult games such as vs Arizona and at Baltimore in their first half...then there's the bad reason: losing to Chicago in Chicago. Still, it seems likely that the Crash should be able to at least get into a playoff spot; besides being the best team on paper, they also only have 3 games that should be at all difficult the rest of the season, in their away matchups to Yellowknife and San Jose and their home game against Baltimore. Their only other away game is against the Fire Salamanders.
Next up is the Sailfish, the worst team in terms of point differential among these four and arguably the single worst situated team; the team that was considered worse heading into the season has both made trades and has one more win than them in the Butchers. Sarasota absolutely could crater out of the playoff push shortly; their next 4 games are all varying levels of difficult. They might be in the middle of the single most difficult stretch any team has this season, and they still have away games to Baltimore and New Orleans followed by home games against Orange County and Yellowknife to finish said stretch. Their away game against the Crash late in the season is likely to be exceedingly difficult as well. It seems incredibly likely that the Sailfish wind up in the 5th spot in the conference at this point.
The Wraiths currently hold the 3rd seed in the conference, but hold the distinct title of being the most embarrassing and least confident team in the entire league. The team has one good win, and to be fair blowing out the Hawks in Baltimore for their one loss so far on the season is a great win. But other than that, you have a single possession win at home against the Sailfish which took until the final minute to actually score, the exact same circumstance against Austin, also at home, and let up over 30 points against the Fire Salamanders even discounting the garbage time score, a mark that not even the Colorado Yeti let the team reach. Of course, for as mediocre and awful as the Wraiths' wins are, their losses are somehow worse. Losing by 2 possessions against the Butchers at home? Losing by 3 possessions to the Crash away and only scoring 8? Giving Honolulu their first win of the season? Giving Colorado THEIR first win of the season, at HOME? This is a team where I should be comfortable with at least their away games against Colorado and Berlin, but excuse me if I feel like this team could disappoint me and all their users again by losing to a bottom 3 team for the 3rd time this season. Otherwise, they've got a bevy of terrible matchups; at Chicago is winnable but also very losable, same with at Sarasota, they've got home games against the Sabercats, the Crash, and the Hawks left, and they also end their season in an away trip to Arizona. I feel like the Wraiths are thus my prediction for 4th in the conference.
The Butchers should not be here. They should arguably be where the Crash are if not worse. But, whether by hook, by crook, or by stupid sim blessing a team over and over again, Chicago has the inside track to at least a playoff berth. They have the schedule to do it, too; only 3 away games, all against competition that, albeit not exactly easy, is not too difficult; out of the Crash, the Silverbacks, and the Sailfish, I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to only be heavy dogs against Cape Town. Their home matchups also contain the two near freebies of Berlin and Colorado. For Chicago to miss the playoffs, they'd need to actually start losing the away games that they should be uncompetitive in, and also drop the winnable home games against the Copperheads and the Wraiths. Judging by how the season has gone so far, I think it's more likely that Chicago beats Baltimore at home than that Chicago actually misses the playoffs from this position. They even made a trade recently to improve their team dramatically.
ASFC 3rd Seed
Contenders:
One of these teams is going to look at...probably the Butchers, and be extremely annoyed with the fact that they're in the ASFC.
New Orleans has the inside track to the playoffs at this point, despite their status as 4th in the conference at this moment. They only have 1 away game left in the season worth discussing at all, and while it's probably safe to assume that Arizona wins that matchup, NOLA's good enough to win it for sure. Thanks to finishing 6th in the conference last season, NOLA's been blessed with an easy out of conference schedule that means they do probably lose a tiebreak if it gets down to that; I don't see NOLA losing to the Sailfish at home or Colorado away. There are difficult home games still on the docket for NOLA, most notably San Jose and Orange County themselves, but the team is good enough to probably be favored in both of those with the home field advantage. New Orleans has had a couple close calls that might make them jumpy, but close doesn't matter in this sim.
Orange County, meanwhile, just suffered an unforgivable loss against the Butchers that leaves them tied in record and with a much, much harder schedule from here on out. Their away game against an NSFC opponent is the Sailfish instead of the Yeti, and their home game is against Baltimore instead of Sarasota. Granted, I'd still probably favor the Otters in both of those games, but that's a much harder pair of games than the Second Line will face. They have a possibly tricky away day to the Copperheads, and the same likely loss away to Arizona. Not to mention that the head to head matchup between these two is going to be in NOLA. This team is more than good enough to make the playoffs from this position, but as is it feels like NOLA's going to make their first playoff game in nearly 10 seasons. That being said, a single bad loss one way or another really changes the math between these two.
ASFC 1st Seed
Competitors:
As I type, San Jose is in the first seed due to upsetting the Outlaws in Arizona. That being said, this still feels like it could come down to whoever blinks in the 2nd matchup between the two. San Jose has more games that I feel they will be dogs in outside of that; away games against NOLA and Orange County will probably see them as underdogs, and they have matchups they might be favored in by little in their home game against Cape Town and their away game against Yellowknife. Arizona, meanwhile, has an away day against Baltimore, but faces the toughest teams in their conference at home during the 2nd half of the season...outside of San Jose. In Week 15, these two clash, and it feels likely that whoever wins will seal the tiebreaker and the 1st seed. Due to taking place in San Jose, this feels very much like the Sabercats to lose, but they do have more games that I'd describe as tricky on their schedule than Arizona.
