I do these through out the seasons. Mostly for the money, but also it is interesting to look at how each team gets where they are.
So we have finished six games so far this season, let's break it down.
Records through Six :
Teams at 5-1 : 2 : Chicago Butchers and Yellowknife Wraiths
Teams at 4-2 : 4 : Honolulu Hahalua, San Jose Sabercats, Arizona Outlaws and Sarasota Sailfish
Teams at 3-3 : 2 : New York Silverbacks and Colorado Yeti
Teams at 2-4 : 5 : Orange County Otters, New Orleans Second Line, Austin Copperheads, Berlin Fire Salamanders and Philadelphia Liberty
Teams at 1-5 : 0 :
Teams at 0-6 : 1 : Baltimore Hawks
Parity has lessened since my last post. If I recall after three games the parity was exact. Same amount of teams had a winning record versus a losing record with the rest being tied at .500. Now, we do have an even number of games played here, so that could make a difference.
First thing I notice is more teams with a losing record than winning records. Which points to fewer teams holding on to more wins, which is shown by two teams with five and one records after six games. But, the conference with the two five and one teams also holds the 0 and six team and two of the two and four teams as well. It does make some sense. Of course the fact that there are two one loss teams in the same conference is kind of crazy.
So on to the rankings portion of this article.
Playoff prob scale :
A(most likely making the playoffs)
B(Solid chance to make the playoffs)
C(Can make the playoffs, but will be tough)
D(Most likely not making the playoffs)
E(Nope. Not going to happen)
Top Ranked Team : Yellowknife Wraiths 5-1
I know this might seem to be a little off for a lot of people as the Butchers did beat the Wraiths in week one. (Plus I am a wraith, so of course I would pick the homer choice?) Well, three things to remember in the week one loss, first, it was a week one game in a new sim. Secondly, it was on the road, again week one in a new sim. Thirdly, it was a one possession loss on the road, in a new sim against the only other one loss team after six weeks. So while I do acknowledge there is an argument for the Butchers number one, I think the closeness of the game combined with the Butchers losing a later game at home to the Yeti, puts the Wraiths at the number one spot. How have they been doing it? Well, putting up more points than they give up. Also, winning tight games. Other than the week one loss one the road by less than seven points, they have won three close games by five, seven and three points. Their other two games were blowout wins against the Hawks and the Fire Salamanders. They are averaging twenty seven on offence and nineteen on defense, scoring eight more points a game than they are allowing. They are currently scoring the third most points a game and only allowing tied for the third least points per game. Third in points scored and top three on defense equals a team that is most likely doing well overall. The Wraiths are just continuing their legacy from last season with a potent balanced offense and a stingy defense that just doesn't like to give up points. It worked a season ago in the old sim and appears to working pretty well once again. They are top six in passing and rushing, and they don't make a lot of mistakes. Solid team.
Playoff chances : A
Second Ranked Team : Chicago Butchers 5-1
Now you could easily argue this team is the top rank, or even rank the one A and one B. I think ranking them one A and B is the most accurate way to do it. But for the purposes of having a clear one and two, I am doing it this way. Their one loss was to a three and three Yeti team, but their record is somewhat misleading as they are a good team, just one of their losses was to the Wraiths, another to the Sailfish and the third was to Austin. At this point they are the clear number A/B team in the league and after week thirteen it looks like we will have a very clear picture of the playoffs. After week thirteen they will have played the Wraiths again, Yeti, Outlaws and the Sailfish. How have they done it you ask? Well, pretty simple formula, they score more than they allow. They are averaging thirty one points a game while only allowing twenty point five points a game. Dang near ten points more scored than allowed. They lead the league in points scored with 186 total, about twenty points higher than second place, and they have allowed 123 points, which is good for fifth overall. First and fifth in points scored and allowed is going to get you a good record for sure. They are eight in passing and second in rushing. Good team.
Playoff chances : A
Third Ranked Team : Honolulu Hahalua 4-2
This was the hardest rank to pick, as there are five teams you could make an honest argument for. I settled on them as they have the best record combined with the best point differential. If you look who each team played and how they won or lost those games, you could move Honolulu down as many as three spots. I think with their roster and the fact that they do score on average almost twenty six points a game while one allowing eighteen and a half a game, close to nine point difference. It makes for a solid case to winning more games than they lose. Their two losses came to the Liberty and the Outlaws, both good teams, one's record shows it, the other doesn't. Again, it works well when you average more points a game than you allow. Generally you end up with more wins than losses. They are seventh in passing offense and eighth in rushing, so not bad, but definitely not elite in either one. They are tied for fifth in the league in points scored and are number in points allowed, which helps explain how they are winning games. Don't allow points to the other team and boom, you can win.
Playoff Chance : B+
Fourth Ranked Team : Arizona Outlaws 4-2
Another hard to pick completely subjective choice. Same record as the team above, and they beat them with a some what of a blowout win. So, easy to say they are better as they already beat them, but again I went with the points diff as the tie breaker here. Which team do I think is better? Well, by the end of the season my money is on Arizona moving ahead of the Hahalua. Easy to say right now, the outlaws do have some tough games coming up. As of right now they are averaging twenty six points a game, while allowing only nineteen point three a game. Solid point diff that points to them winning more games as they go forth. They are tied for fifth for points scored and tied for third in points allowed so far. Solid numbers and the best way to have a winning record. They have the top rushing attack in the league and to go with it they have the last place passing attack. Good team.
Playoff chance : A-
So we have finished six games so far this season, let's break it down.
Records through Six :
Teams at 5-1 : 2 : Chicago Butchers and Yellowknife Wraiths
Teams at 4-2 : 4 : Honolulu Hahalua, San Jose Sabercats, Arizona Outlaws and Sarasota Sailfish
Teams at 3-3 : 2 : New York Silverbacks and Colorado Yeti
Teams at 2-4 : 5 : Orange County Otters, New Orleans Second Line, Austin Copperheads, Berlin Fire Salamanders and Philadelphia Liberty
Teams at 1-5 : 0 :
Teams at 0-6 : 1 : Baltimore Hawks
Parity has lessened since my last post. If I recall after three games the parity was exact. Same amount of teams had a winning record versus a losing record with the rest being tied at .500. Now, we do have an even number of games played here, so that could make a difference.
First thing I notice is more teams with a losing record than winning records. Which points to fewer teams holding on to more wins, which is shown by two teams with five and one records after six games. But, the conference with the two five and one teams also holds the 0 and six team and two of the two and four teams as well. It does make some sense. Of course the fact that there are two one loss teams in the same conference is kind of crazy.
So on to the rankings portion of this article.
Playoff prob scale :
A(most likely making the playoffs)
B(Solid chance to make the playoffs)
C(Can make the playoffs, but will be tough)
D(Most likely not making the playoffs)
E(Nope. Not going to happen)
Top Ranked Team : Yellowknife Wraiths 5-1
I know this might seem to be a little off for a lot of people as the Butchers did beat the Wraiths in week one. (Plus I am a wraith, so of course I would pick the homer choice?) Well, three things to remember in the week one loss, first, it was a week one game in a new sim. Secondly, it was on the road, again week one in a new sim. Thirdly, it was a one possession loss on the road, in a new sim against the only other one loss team after six weeks. So while I do acknowledge there is an argument for the Butchers number one, I think the closeness of the game combined with the Butchers losing a later game at home to the Yeti, puts the Wraiths at the number one spot. How have they been doing it? Well, putting up more points than they give up. Also, winning tight games. Other than the week one loss one the road by less than seven points, they have won three close games by five, seven and three points. Their other two games were blowout wins against the Hawks and the Fire Salamanders. They are averaging twenty seven on offence and nineteen on defense, scoring eight more points a game than they are allowing. They are currently scoring the third most points a game and only allowing tied for the third least points per game. Third in points scored and top three on defense equals a team that is most likely doing well overall. The Wraiths are just continuing their legacy from last season with a potent balanced offense and a stingy defense that just doesn't like to give up points. It worked a season ago in the old sim and appears to working pretty well once again. They are top six in passing and rushing, and they don't make a lot of mistakes. Solid team.
Playoff chances : A
Second Ranked Team : Chicago Butchers 5-1
Now you could easily argue this team is the top rank, or even rank the one A and one B. I think ranking them one A and B is the most accurate way to do it. But for the purposes of having a clear one and two, I am doing it this way. Their one loss was to a three and three Yeti team, but their record is somewhat misleading as they are a good team, just one of their losses was to the Wraiths, another to the Sailfish and the third was to Austin. At this point they are the clear number A/B team in the league and after week thirteen it looks like we will have a very clear picture of the playoffs. After week thirteen they will have played the Wraiths again, Yeti, Outlaws and the Sailfish. How have they done it you ask? Well, pretty simple formula, they score more than they allow. They are averaging thirty one points a game while only allowing twenty point five points a game. Dang near ten points more scored than allowed. They lead the league in points scored with 186 total, about twenty points higher than second place, and they have allowed 123 points, which is good for fifth overall. First and fifth in points scored and allowed is going to get you a good record for sure. They are eight in passing and second in rushing. Good team.
Playoff chances : A
Third Ranked Team : Honolulu Hahalua 4-2
This was the hardest rank to pick, as there are five teams you could make an honest argument for. I settled on them as they have the best record combined with the best point differential. If you look who each team played and how they won or lost those games, you could move Honolulu down as many as three spots. I think with their roster and the fact that they do score on average almost twenty six points a game while one allowing eighteen and a half a game, close to nine point difference. It makes for a solid case to winning more games than they lose. Their two losses came to the Liberty and the Outlaws, both good teams, one's record shows it, the other doesn't. Again, it works well when you average more points a game than you allow. Generally you end up with more wins than losses. They are seventh in passing offense and eighth in rushing, so not bad, but definitely not elite in either one. They are tied for fifth in the league in points scored and are number in points allowed, which helps explain how they are winning games. Don't allow points to the other team and boom, you can win.
Playoff Chance : B+
Fourth Ranked Team : Arizona Outlaws 4-2
Another hard to pick completely subjective choice. Same record as the team above, and they beat them with a some what of a blowout win. So, easy to say they are better as they already beat them, but again I went with the points diff as the tie breaker here. Which team do I think is better? Well, by the end of the season my money is on Arizona moving ahead of the Hahalua. Easy to say right now, the outlaws do have some tough games coming up. As of right now they are averaging twenty six points a game, while allowing only nineteen point three a game. Solid point diff that points to them winning more games as they go forth. They are tied for fifth for points scored and tied for third in points allowed so far. Solid numbers and the best way to have a winning record. They have the top rushing attack in the league and to go with it they have the last place passing attack. Good team.
Playoff chance : A-
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