The S1 MVP will be…

Stormblessed · 06-13-2017, 10:32 AM

“The S1 MVP will be…” - $1,000,000 bonus - min 400 words - June 15

In the inaugural season of a brand new league, it is incredibly complicated for ANYONE to make an MVP prediction after one game and the pre-season. Pre-season can basically be thrown out as it was deciding most of the position battles and is not reflective of the season at large.

So, how can we decide? We need to outline a set of criteria by which the MVP will be selected and narrow down our results based on that. Let’s do it:

Criteria 1: Must be a Quarterback or Running Back

The NFL has been awarding MVPs for 62 seasons. Of those seasons, the MVP has been a QB or a RB a whopping 59 times. Only TWICE was the MVP awarded to a defender (1 DT and 1 LB), and one single time was a special teamer the MVP (a Kicker). It is more likely to be a QB, but for the purposes of this article we will include both.

Criteria 2: Must Play on a Winning Team

Feels a bit unfair, doesn’t it? Can’t you be the most valuable player on a losing team? Unfortunately, precedent suggests NO. Call it the ‘Drew Brees syndrome’ if you like. The voters need to see the MVP come from a team that has a winning record and makes the playoffs. This is the hardest part of the projection to make as we’ve only played one game. The Yeti, Wraiths and Outlaws all won in week one so they’ll have a leg up.

Criteria 3: Must Have Role Locked Down

In order to eliminate candidates, we must start to look at things like market share. An MVP is not going to be locked into a position battle or a timeshare. So let’s look at the various situations from around the league:

Hawks
- QB Kyubee seems locked in as the starter.
- RBs appears to be a bit of a timeshare. They ran 18 times, and only 61% of the carries went to their primary RB.

Yeti
- QB Noble seems locked in as the starter here.
- RBs are almost a complete 50/50 split. Their carries were plentiful (37 in total) but were split between two backs 54% to 46%.

Outlaws
- QB Draxel seems safe enough, though he had a very poor game only completing 8 passes.
- RBs are a complete mess. They divided 23 carries almost in thirds as Mackworthy led the backfield with only 9 carries.

Otters
- QB Boss is in trouble after week one. He threw an astonishing 6 interceptions. The Otters will likely look to other options.
- RBs are again, a timeshare. They ran 25 times and the leading rusher only received 60% of the carries.

SaberCats
- QB Christ also seems safe, but the Cats got blown out and it’s possible they look to shake things up here.
- RB is as close to a timeshare as possible. They ran 24 times with the lead rusher receiving exactly 50% of the carries.

Wraiths
- QB Orosz seems safe as the long term starter.
- RB is the only situation in the league that isn’t a timeshare. They ran 25 times, and Nuck carried the ball 84% of the time.

So what does this mean?

We are probably looking at a three horse race for MVP, between Noble, Orosz and Nuck. Outside dart throw at Kyubee as he was the only QB not to throw a pick – though he was in a losing effort.

My MVP prediction is: Logan Noble, QB, Yeti. Noble is the only show in town on a winning team. The Wraiths duo will eventually start to take stats away from each other. I also believe that the league will start to skew more towards the pass as player get better and that is where Noble will shine.