09-16-2019, 12:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2019, 02:12 PM by Fordhammer.)
With the trade deadline rapidly approaching at the end of this past week, we saw some pretty big moves across the league. This was a fun and fascinating moment for me as a rookie. I'm not on any of these teams at all, so I was able to look at these trades a bit neutrally and enjoy them for what they were. Some were a bit more impactful than others and some looked a bit desperate. Most of these trades looked like they could be potentially wins for both sides except for one that we will touch on only briefly.
Philadelphia Liberty trade with the Yellowknife Wraiths.
Regardless of what else was involved in that trade between Yellowknife and Philadelphia, Philadelphia giving up a bag of hot and spicy chex mix was too much. I thought that this Philadelphia team was still trying to compete this season, but when you give up this much in a season this tightly contested, you're clearly ready to tank and just move on to the draft. I don't know how you give up something this vital to your team with this much time left in the season, but here we are with Philadelphia losing the rights to the hot and spicy chex mix.
All jokes aside, I think this was a win for both sides. Yellowknife gets an immediate upgrade at defensive end with Luke Smyles, a 459 TPE player who might very well make an impact immediately for a team that is chasing a title. Meanwhile, a Philadelphia team that has been struggling downgrades for Chad Maulolo, 247 TPE defensive end player and a third round pick. The big pickup here for the Liberty is that third rounder. It is looking increasingly likely that this will be an absurdly deep class coming up with fairly active players and solid TPE earners well into the fourth. With both of these defensive end players being inactive, you have a trade where Yellowknife is focusing on their current window where that have a chance at an Ultimus and Philadelphia who is making a potential investment into their future on this lost season. This was an absolute win for both sides and while it wasn't a huge splash, I think it may be my favorite trade of the deadline action.
Colorado Yeti trade with the Arizona Outlaws.
This one is a big harder for me to diagnose. Its hard to read who won this one and who lost this one as both teams gave up some assets. Ultimately I think the person who really won this trade wasn't a team, but a player. Beau Montgomery won this trade so hard he was ready to head to directly to the banks with his winnings. Lets take a bit of a look at this one.
The Outlaws picked up Beau Montgomery from Colorado. He's an active 618 TPE corner who still has a year left in his prime before he hits regression. The Outlaws are looking at a championship this year and so they strengthen what was already a solid roster. they were probably one piece from their second title in as many years and there is a good chance this is the one that pushes them over. More than that, now that he's in Arizona there's a solid chance he spends another season or two here producing for the Outlaws. For Beau Montgomery, this is a dream scenario for a player who has been stuck on a team with no real shot at playoffs for a few seasons now.
Colorado didn't get back quite as much from this as I think they might have been able to. The third round pick has a good chance of being a solid active player at a potential position of need for the team. The fifth round pick might still hold some minor value depending on who falls to the spot, but I can't imagine there being too much left there. The 69th pick is completely irrelevant. This leaves Martavius Mack, a 223 TPE inactive safety. He will have marginal impact if any at all going forward and could easily be replaced with a rookie from this class. I didn't love it, but that is what we have.
I feel like Colorado would have potentially been better off going for a 3rd and a 4th than what they got, but I think this may have been a situation where they wanted to get a loyal player a title as so they made the trade work. I definitely think that Arizona got the better end of this one at this exact moment, but I think we won't know the true winner until the end of the season. If Arizona gets a title out of this, the value of this trade for them skyrockets. If Colorado can turn two of those picks into active contributors, I think the value for them flies up as well. Both teams eventually might come out of this winners, but right now I feel like Arizona got a solid player and all they gave up was some question marks.
Philadelphia Liberty trade with the Baltimore Hawks.
This trade was one of the most interesting made late in the deadline. To understand what is going on here, you need a little back story and dive deep into the lore of the league. Not that deep, go back a little bit. Yeah, right there! Lets take a look at what happened here.
Going back to the season 17 NSFL draft, we saw the Hawks make moves in the draft to trade away capitol for impact players that can help them win immediately rather than developing young players. They feel like they are in their championship window at this exact moment and they are willing to do whatever it takes to get there this season. This brings us to this trade. Once again they are auctioning off draft capitol to pick up just one piece that they think can help them win this season. That piece is 646 TPE running back Vander Jones. Jones has recently announced his retirement and his intentions to hang up his cleats at the end of the season, so Baltimore knew what they were getting when they went into this. They were getting a rental on an impact player that will be gone in just a couple weeks.
This trade sees Philadelphia officially parting ways with their former general manager. He announced he was stepping down and retiring early on in the season in a bit of a bitter press conference. His reasons were his own and they were all solid, valid reasons, but it was hard to swallow for a Liberty team that was left without leadership. Both sides agreed to separate amicably and Vander was going to finish out his season as a member of the Liberty. That changed as Philadelphia hit the half way point in this campaign fighting to stay out of last place. Knowing how badly this season has played out, Philadelphia finally accepted that competing this season just wasn't an option. They needed to look forward to their future and this was an incredible place for them to start. They knew this was Vander Jones' last season and so they were smart to go out and get something for what has actually cost Philadelphia absolutely nothing. They get a fourth round pick out of the deal which has a solid chance to become an active contributor to this team going forward in a deep draft like this. The sixth round doesn't amount to much, but it is at least something.
I think this trade comes out as a draw as both teams got something they desperately wanted. The Hawks got one more piece for their championship run and the Liberty got to move on from a bad situation. No matter how this season plays out, a fourth isn't much for Baltimore to give up for improved chances at a title and at the very least the Liberty get a little compensation for the surprise retirement of their former general manager.
Orange County Otters trade with the Baltimore Hawks.
All of that brings us to the final deadline trade. This trade was the very definition of blockbuster and it blew everyone away when it happened. This was the only one of these trades that had truly massive value being slung around by both sides and it is nearly impossible to know which team won this one as ultimately I think both teams one some and lost some with this swap.
Lets start again with the Hawks. We all know what this is about for Baltimore. They are desperately reaching for a title this season. They believe this is their window and see themselves falling off of a cliff in the near future. They sacrificed a solid player in the last draft when they traded away Ennis and now they give up their first round pick in one of the most loaded draft classes this league has ever been. Its going to be solid for three rounds at least, but it has some heavy weight at the top and these first rounders are going to be premium assets in the seasons to come. Baltimore does get a third round pick in return and there will be actives remaining when they are on the clock, but I'm not sure of the quality remaining there. They gave up a 190 TPE inactive running back who wasn't really a big part of this trade and can be mostly looked over. They also gave up Yulic Nagasawa who is an inactive 500 TPE receiver who is about to hit regression. Neither of those players really matter in the grand scheme of this trade, especially for what they got back. They received the one, the only Sunnycursed. Mr. Sunny Chest himself. Sunny is one of the best receivers in the league. He is a big time play maker in games and his 1222 TPE is an indicator that he may not really regress for at least another season or two. The Hawks made a huge splash for their championship chances with Sunny now on the roster as he immediately makes their offense better in a big way. We've already seen him with Baltimore in two games and you can see they're an entirely new team as their offensive explosion was immediately evident.
Meanwhile, Orange County saw a legend leave the team. Sunnycursed was a big part of this team and has been for a while. He's made plays time and time again for the Otters and is a big reason why they've been as competitive as they are over the last two seasons. This is a team that was playoff bound and looked like they had a solid chance of at least taking one playoff game at home when this news was announced. There is no way around it. Trading Sunny makes this team worse right now. By letting him go, Orange County basically sacrificed their chances this season. It is a decision that baffles me a bit as one of the big off season mysteries was where Sunny might decide to go. Orange County made a big push to keep him on board, he finally decided to stick with them, and then in that same season they traded him away. It was a bit of a surprise for most people, but it seems the Otters have decided to focus on their future. With this trade, they now have three first round picks in this draft. This class is absolutely rife with talent and I think the first round is going to be absolutely loaded with key players that teams will be fighting each other to get. This team was already young and in the middle of a soft rebuild, this move just makes them younger.
At the end of the day I think both teams got something they wanted. Baltimore is selling the entire farm for a championship this season. They received one of the biggest play makers in the league in a boom or bust deal. They showed in the S17 draft that this was the direction they were going and now they've gone all in. If Baltimore now fails to win this season 17 championship, they've now basically traded away their future and two separate players that will likely have long careers and big impacts in this league. I think there are some dark, dark days ahead in Baltimore if these decisions go south. For Orange County, I feel like they have done the exact opposite in their campaign. I think by letting go of one of their best players, the Otters have basically decided that they are forfeiting this season. They might still have a strong enough roster to pull out a win in the playoffs, but I do think this was the nail in the coffin for any real playoffs aspirations. That said, they've made some big investments in their future as they're entering a talent rich draft. They should be able to pick at least three young players that should be able to develop with this team along with young stars on their roster like Hugh Mongo and Franklin Armstrong. Give it another two seasons or so and I think the Otters may be a terrifying force to match up against.
Teams that perhaps should have made moves.
Austin Copperheads: This team has been surprisingly competitive so far this season when no one really expected them to be. They've pulled out multiple wins and have played close games with teams at the top of the standings. They're even in the playoff race still for this season. The Copperheads look to be one or two players away from taking the next step and I'm a little surprised they didn't try to make that move now. I know they are working with limited assets, but if they could have gotten another first or second round pick in this draft or traded for a veteran on the far side of their prime, I think this team gets real scary next season. Perhaps they know exactly what they are doing. They've got a lot of youth and development that will be coming in over the off season, so maybe they don't need that extra push. I just feel like it could have done them some good.
San Jose SaberCats: I don't quite understand why this team isn't in sell now mode. This team is old. Old as in ancient and creaky. They have 15 players who are either in regression or will be entering it at the end of this season. Their star quarterback Joliet L. Christ just announced his retirement and this team is falling apart rapidly. The door hasn't closed on this team, it was slammed shut. They have no window anymore and they should be hitting the panic button right now. They have no plans in place for when this team starts tumbling down hill and I think they had a chance to get a head start on their rebuild. Unfortunately, they didn't make any moves and they'll be entering a huge draft without any extra picks that I think they could have used. They'll likely make an early exit in the playoffs and be wondering why they didn't collect assets while they still could.
Chicago Butchers: I don't think this team is desperate for anything right now, but I also don't know why they let themselves stagnate. They're in the thick of the championship race right now with a three way first place tie in the NSFC. Their two conference rivals made moves to get better right now for this championship push. Chicago did not. I do think Chicago is a strong team and I wouldn't say that them not making a move weakens their chances at a championship. What I will say is if this Chicago team had gotten someone like Sunnycursed, I think they become a favorite for the Ultimus this season. They currently have the first ranked defense in the NSFL and they have put together the league's best rushing attack with Sam Torenson and Aksel Danielsson. If they could have given Rose Jenkins someone reliable to throw the ball when things go south for this rushing attack, I think you have a juggernaut in Chicago. Unfortunately they didn't make a move and who knows, by the end of the season I may be looking silly for thinking they needed to.
Team that didn't panic for good reason.
New Orleans Second Line: New Orleans has a very solid young core of players that quite frankly played under their expectations this season. They've got play makers at almost every position and this season they simply didn't make plays. There is a lot of talk about why that is, but universally teams, players, and general managers thought that New Orleans should break into the playoffs this season. Instead they are sitting at the bottom of the standings. They've not lived up to the hype and that is currently fine. They could have panicked and made moves and desperately fought to meet expectations, but they held steady. Even had this Second Line roster made playoffs, chances of them making it past the first round was slim. By embracing their foul luck, they've come out the other end potentially looking like a rose. They should have both the number one and number 11 picks, which should allow them to add an additional pair of big impact active youths to their roster. They're in the middle of developing the bulk of their players and adding two more to the mix absolutely can't hurt. If you're not going to win the Ultimus, landing the first pick in a draft like this is certainly a consolation prize. I think in another season or two, this young team is going to hit their stride and it'll be fascinating to watch.
At the end of the day, it is still too early to say if anyone really won or lost at this trade deadline. We don't know who is going to lift the trophy, we don't know how these draft picks are going to shape up, and we don't know how players who have moved teams are going to adjust. I will say that as the next month plays out, you're going to have some very vivid winners and losers in this and we'll be able to check back to see who failed in negotiations and who got absolute steals.
Thanks for joining me in this dive into the trade deadline. I hope you all enjoyed it!
Philadelphia Liberty trade with the Yellowknife Wraiths.
Regardless of what else was involved in that trade between Yellowknife and Philadelphia, Philadelphia giving up a bag of hot and spicy chex mix was too much. I thought that this Philadelphia team was still trying to compete this season, but when you give up this much in a season this tightly contested, you're clearly ready to tank and just move on to the draft. I don't know how you give up something this vital to your team with this much time left in the season, but here we are with Philadelphia losing the rights to the hot and spicy chex mix.
All jokes aside, I think this was a win for both sides. Yellowknife gets an immediate upgrade at defensive end with Luke Smyles, a 459 TPE player who might very well make an impact immediately for a team that is chasing a title. Meanwhile, a Philadelphia team that has been struggling downgrades for Chad Maulolo, 247 TPE defensive end player and a third round pick. The big pickup here for the Liberty is that third rounder. It is looking increasingly likely that this will be an absurdly deep class coming up with fairly active players and solid TPE earners well into the fourth. With both of these defensive end players being inactive, you have a trade where Yellowknife is focusing on their current window where that have a chance at an Ultimus and Philadelphia who is making a potential investment into their future on this lost season. This was an absolute win for both sides and while it wasn't a huge splash, I think it may be my favorite trade of the deadline action.
Colorado Yeti trade with the Arizona Outlaws.
This one is a big harder for me to diagnose. Its hard to read who won this one and who lost this one as both teams gave up some assets. Ultimately I think the person who really won this trade wasn't a team, but a player. Beau Montgomery won this trade so hard he was ready to head to directly to the banks with his winnings. Lets take a bit of a look at this one.
The Outlaws picked up Beau Montgomery from Colorado. He's an active 618 TPE corner who still has a year left in his prime before he hits regression. The Outlaws are looking at a championship this year and so they strengthen what was already a solid roster. they were probably one piece from their second title in as many years and there is a good chance this is the one that pushes them over. More than that, now that he's in Arizona there's a solid chance he spends another season or two here producing for the Outlaws. For Beau Montgomery, this is a dream scenario for a player who has been stuck on a team with no real shot at playoffs for a few seasons now.
Colorado didn't get back quite as much from this as I think they might have been able to. The third round pick has a good chance of being a solid active player at a potential position of need for the team. The fifth round pick might still hold some minor value depending on who falls to the spot, but I can't imagine there being too much left there. The 69th pick is completely irrelevant. This leaves Martavius Mack, a 223 TPE inactive safety. He will have marginal impact if any at all going forward and could easily be replaced with a rookie from this class. I didn't love it, but that is what we have.
I feel like Colorado would have potentially been better off going for a 3rd and a 4th than what they got, but I think this may have been a situation where they wanted to get a loyal player a title as so they made the trade work. I definitely think that Arizona got the better end of this one at this exact moment, but I think we won't know the true winner until the end of the season. If Arizona gets a title out of this, the value of this trade for them skyrockets. If Colorado can turn two of those picks into active contributors, I think the value for them flies up as well. Both teams eventually might come out of this winners, but right now I feel like Arizona got a solid player and all they gave up was some question marks.
Philadelphia Liberty trade with the Baltimore Hawks.
This trade was one of the most interesting made late in the deadline. To understand what is going on here, you need a little back story and dive deep into the lore of the league. Not that deep, go back a little bit. Yeah, right there! Lets take a look at what happened here.
Going back to the season 17 NSFL draft, we saw the Hawks make moves in the draft to trade away capitol for impact players that can help them win immediately rather than developing young players. They feel like they are in their championship window at this exact moment and they are willing to do whatever it takes to get there this season. This brings us to this trade. Once again they are auctioning off draft capitol to pick up just one piece that they think can help them win this season. That piece is 646 TPE running back Vander Jones. Jones has recently announced his retirement and his intentions to hang up his cleats at the end of the season, so Baltimore knew what they were getting when they went into this. They were getting a rental on an impact player that will be gone in just a couple weeks.
This trade sees Philadelphia officially parting ways with their former general manager. He announced he was stepping down and retiring early on in the season in a bit of a bitter press conference. His reasons were his own and they were all solid, valid reasons, but it was hard to swallow for a Liberty team that was left without leadership. Both sides agreed to separate amicably and Vander was going to finish out his season as a member of the Liberty. That changed as Philadelphia hit the half way point in this campaign fighting to stay out of last place. Knowing how badly this season has played out, Philadelphia finally accepted that competing this season just wasn't an option. They needed to look forward to their future and this was an incredible place for them to start. They knew this was Vander Jones' last season and so they were smart to go out and get something for what has actually cost Philadelphia absolutely nothing. They get a fourth round pick out of the deal which has a solid chance to become an active contributor to this team going forward in a deep draft like this. The sixth round doesn't amount to much, but it is at least something.
I think this trade comes out as a draw as both teams got something they desperately wanted. The Hawks got one more piece for their championship run and the Liberty got to move on from a bad situation. No matter how this season plays out, a fourth isn't much for Baltimore to give up for improved chances at a title and at the very least the Liberty get a little compensation for the surprise retirement of their former general manager.
Orange County Otters trade with the Baltimore Hawks.
All of that brings us to the final deadline trade. This trade was the very definition of blockbuster and it blew everyone away when it happened. This was the only one of these trades that had truly massive value being slung around by both sides and it is nearly impossible to know which team won this one as ultimately I think both teams one some and lost some with this swap.
Lets start again with the Hawks. We all know what this is about for Baltimore. They are desperately reaching for a title this season. They believe this is their window and see themselves falling off of a cliff in the near future. They sacrificed a solid player in the last draft when they traded away Ennis and now they give up their first round pick in one of the most loaded draft classes this league has ever been. Its going to be solid for three rounds at least, but it has some heavy weight at the top and these first rounders are going to be premium assets in the seasons to come. Baltimore does get a third round pick in return and there will be actives remaining when they are on the clock, but I'm not sure of the quality remaining there. They gave up a 190 TPE inactive running back who wasn't really a big part of this trade and can be mostly looked over. They also gave up Yulic Nagasawa who is an inactive 500 TPE receiver who is about to hit regression. Neither of those players really matter in the grand scheme of this trade, especially for what they got back. They received the one, the only Sunnycursed. Mr. Sunny Chest himself. Sunny is one of the best receivers in the league. He is a big time play maker in games and his 1222 TPE is an indicator that he may not really regress for at least another season or two. The Hawks made a huge splash for their championship chances with Sunny now on the roster as he immediately makes their offense better in a big way. We've already seen him with Baltimore in two games and you can see they're an entirely new team as their offensive explosion was immediately evident.
Meanwhile, Orange County saw a legend leave the team. Sunnycursed was a big part of this team and has been for a while. He's made plays time and time again for the Otters and is a big reason why they've been as competitive as they are over the last two seasons. This is a team that was playoff bound and looked like they had a solid chance of at least taking one playoff game at home when this news was announced. There is no way around it. Trading Sunny makes this team worse right now. By letting him go, Orange County basically sacrificed their chances this season. It is a decision that baffles me a bit as one of the big off season mysteries was where Sunny might decide to go. Orange County made a big push to keep him on board, he finally decided to stick with them, and then in that same season they traded him away. It was a bit of a surprise for most people, but it seems the Otters have decided to focus on their future. With this trade, they now have three first round picks in this draft. This class is absolutely rife with talent and I think the first round is going to be absolutely loaded with key players that teams will be fighting each other to get. This team was already young and in the middle of a soft rebuild, this move just makes them younger.
At the end of the day I think both teams got something they wanted. Baltimore is selling the entire farm for a championship this season. They received one of the biggest play makers in the league in a boom or bust deal. They showed in the S17 draft that this was the direction they were going and now they've gone all in. If Baltimore now fails to win this season 17 championship, they've now basically traded away their future and two separate players that will likely have long careers and big impacts in this league. I think there are some dark, dark days ahead in Baltimore if these decisions go south. For Orange County, I feel like they have done the exact opposite in their campaign. I think by letting go of one of their best players, the Otters have basically decided that they are forfeiting this season. They might still have a strong enough roster to pull out a win in the playoffs, but I do think this was the nail in the coffin for any real playoffs aspirations. That said, they've made some big investments in their future as they're entering a talent rich draft. They should be able to pick at least three young players that should be able to develop with this team along with young stars on their roster like Hugh Mongo and Franklin Armstrong. Give it another two seasons or so and I think the Otters may be a terrifying force to match up against.
Teams that perhaps should have made moves.
Austin Copperheads: This team has been surprisingly competitive so far this season when no one really expected them to be. They've pulled out multiple wins and have played close games with teams at the top of the standings. They're even in the playoff race still for this season. The Copperheads look to be one or two players away from taking the next step and I'm a little surprised they didn't try to make that move now. I know they are working with limited assets, but if they could have gotten another first or second round pick in this draft or traded for a veteran on the far side of their prime, I think this team gets real scary next season. Perhaps they know exactly what they are doing. They've got a lot of youth and development that will be coming in over the off season, so maybe they don't need that extra push. I just feel like it could have done them some good.
San Jose SaberCats: I don't quite understand why this team isn't in sell now mode. This team is old. Old as in ancient and creaky. They have 15 players who are either in regression or will be entering it at the end of this season. Their star quarterback Joliet L. Christ just announced his retirement and this team is falling apart rapidly. The door hasn't closed on this team, it was slammed shut. They have no window anymore and they should be hitting the panic button right now. They have no plans in place for when this team starts tumbling down hill and I think they had a chance to get a head start on their rebuild. Unfortunately, they didn't make any moves and they'll be entering a huge draft without any extra picks that I think they could have used. They'll likely make an early exit in the playoffs and be wondering why they didn't collect assets while they still could.
Chicago Butchers: I don't think this team is desperate for anything right now, but I also don't know why they let themselves stagnate. They're in the thick of the championship race right now with a three way first place tie in the NSFC. Their two conference rivals made moves to get better right now for this championship push. Chicago did not. I do think Chicago is a strong team and I wouldn't say that them not making a move weakens their chances at a championship. What I will say is if this Chicago team had gotten someone like Sunnycursed, I think they become a favorite for the Ultimus this season. They currently have the first ranked defense in the NSFL and they have put together the league's best rushing attack with Sam Torenson and Aksel Danielsson. If they could have given Rose Jenkins someone reliable to throw the ball when things go south for this rushing attack, I think you have a juggernaut in Chicago. Unfortunately they didn't make a move and who knows, by the end of the season I may be looking silly for thinking they needed to.
Team that didn't panic for good reason.
New Orleans Second Line: New Orleans has a very solid young core of players that quite frankly played under their expectations this season. They've got play makers at almost every position and this season they simply didn't make plays. There is a lot of talk about why that is, but universally teams, players, and general managers thought that New Orleans should break into the playoffs this season. Instead they are sitting at the bottom of the standings. They've not lived up to the hype and that is currently fine. They could have panicked and made moves and desperately fought to meet expectations, but they held steady. Even had this Second Line roster made playoffs, chances of them making it past the first round was slim. By embracing their foul luck, they've come out the other end potentially looking like a rose. They should have both the number one and number 11 picks, which should allow them to add an additional pair of big impact active youths to their roster. They're in the middle of developing the bulk of their players and adding two more to the mix absolutely can't hurt. If you're not going to win the Ultimus, landing the first pick in a draft like this is certainly a consolation prize. I think in another season or two, this young team is going to hit their stride and it'll be fascinating to watch.
At the end of the day, it is still too early to say if anyone really won or lost at this trade deadline. We don't know who is going to lift the trophy, we don't know how these draft picks are going to shape up, and we don't know how players who have moved teams are going to adjust. I will say that as the next month plays out, you're going to have some very vivid winners and losers in this and we'll be able to check back to see who failed in negotiations and who got absolute steals.
Thanks for joining me in this dive into the trade deadline. I hope you all enjoyed it!