*NSFL Media Market Analysis

[KoltClassic]

Hello everybody! In this article I thought I'd take a step back and look at the financial viability of the geographic locations of our current NSFL teams. More specifically, I'm aiming to do an analysis of where all of the NSFL teams are located based on their television media markets. I used this table to find market ranks for cities in the United States, and I inferred markets for non-US cities based primarily on population. Any time you see Rank XYZ, that is me referencing the table. Note that I am still very new to the league, and thus do not have much information on exactly *why* a location was chosen to be the home of an NSFL team. Additionally, any critique of a location choice isn't intended to be malicious; I've never actually participated in any games for an NSFL team, so hopefully this can be seen as relatively objective. I've provided "Better Landing Spots" for teams that have locations I don't entirely agree with. Also, apologies for the terrible formatting on this article; I'm still trying to figure out forum-fu with media posts.

NSFC

Colorado Yeti - Denver, Rank 17

- While this definitely wasn't one of the premier markets to select for a founding team, I think that it was a solid choice overall. Denver has a relatively high number of TV households at 1,532,320, and would have had the opportunity to win over nearby fans in the midwest that weren't sold on the Baltimore Hawks.

Baltimore Hawks - Baltimore, Rank 26

While I don't think that this choice was the safest bet as a choice for one of the six founding teams of the league, I think that the Hawks not having a nearby team on the east coast would allow for this team to be successful in the Baltimore market. The proximity to other cities in the area such as New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston would have allowed for a huge opportunity in gaining large viewership numbers. Where I think that this pick becomes worse is after the first NSFL expansion, in which the Philadelphia Liberty moved in next door. This addition to the league, and additionally to the division, would have likely caused a rupture in the Hawks' fanbase (though the increase or decrease in viewership is debatable).

• Better Landing Spots
  • Washington D.C. - Rank 7
    • [li]This seems like it would have been a better landing spot for the Baltimore Hawks initially, but the very close proximity of the cities probably doesn't matter that much for their numbers for now. If the size of the league were to grow even more, this might be seen as a misstep.
  [/li]

Yellowknife Wraiths - Yellowknife Rank > 200 (U.S. Equivalent)

I don't know the exact numbers for TV households in the Yellowknife area (the population to TV household equation doesn't seem to be very consistent city to city), but with a population of 19,569 I would assume that it would be similar to markets like Juneau, Alaska, which has a population of 31,275 and 18,730 TV households or Alpena, Michigan, which has a population of 10,483 and an estimated 14,280 TV households. Regardless of what the actual TV household numbers are for the city of Yellowknife and it's surrounding regions, this seems like a terrible idea financially to house an NSFL team here. The city also does not have an international airport, likely making travel for its players and staff to away games (all of which require international flights ) that much more difficult.

• Better Landing Spots
  • Toronto: Population 2,826,498
    • Similar population to Chicago, would definitely be a top 10 market ( and possibly a top 5 market ) while retaining the Canadian fanbase.
  • Meme answer: Literally anywhere.
    • Whoever owns this team has to be burning money to stay afloat at this point.
  [/li]

Philadelphia Liberty - Philadelphia, Rank 4 (First NSFL Expansion)

Good expansion choice. Large market surrounded by a lot of other markets. Other nearby team is the Hawks who rank 26th, but you've also got New York (Rank 1), Washington D.C. (Rank 7), and Boston (Rank 9) nearby, so plenty of room for gaining fans.

Chicago Butchers - Chicago, Rank 3 (Second NSFL Expansion)

Great second expansion choice. I'm surprised that Chicago wasn't the main choice for the first NSFL expansion, or even one of the founding teams (looking at you, Yellowknife). Choosing to start up a team in the 3rd largest media market, while also having no other media markets taken in the entire midwest makes for a huge opportunity financially. Gathering fans from Detroit (rank 14), Minneapolis-St. Paul (rank 15), and Cleveland (rank 19) would have likely been easier due to proximity, setting the Butchers up very well for high viewership numbers and financial success.

ASFC

Orange County Otters - Los Angeles, Rank 2 and San Jose SaberCats - San Jose, Rank 6

I'm combining the analysis for the Orange County Otters and the San Jose SaberCats as they are extremely similar, with both being founding teams and having a proximity of essentially right next to each other. I think that the California market is too large to avoid, with 3 of the top 20 media markets available ( the third being Sacramento at rank 20). That being said, it is a toss up on how fandom would have solidified during the founding of the league for these two teams. My assumption is that the Orange County Otters would have eventually became the crowd favorite in the surrounding area due to their initial successes and Ultimus championships.

Arizona Outlaws - Phoenix, Rank 11

The Outlaws have a large market at rank 11 here, but I'd be worried that fans would be split between them and other nearby options. Even at the start of the league, the Orange County Otters and the San Jose SaberCats' proximity may have caused divisiveness in otherwise easily-captured west coast markets. The addition of the Austin Copperheads would likely only serve to increase this divisiveness as well, possibly removing the state of Texas from the equation.

New Orleans Second Line - New Orleans, Rank 50 (First NSFL Expansion)

I don't think that this was the greatest pick financially for a first iteration expansion team. New Orleans is the 50th ranked market in the United States, and with their only being six teams in the league pre-expansion, there were many other more financially viable markets. If the league were looking to expand into the southeast US market, I think that a market like Atlanta ( Rank 10) or Tampa (Rank 12) would have been a more responsible choice.

• Better Landing Spots
  • Atlanta, Georgia - Rank 10
    • Larger market and closer proximity to the Carolinas and Florida.
  • Tampa-St.Petersburg, FL: Rank 12
    • Florida man loves his football ( and his crime )
  [/li]

Austin Copperheads - Austin, Rank 40 (Second NSFL Expansion)

- Not a terrible pick to expand here, though choosing the Dallas-Fort Worth area (Rank 5) may have been more of a guarantee. Though I'm sure that due to the close proximities of these cities in Texas that many fans of the Copperheads are located in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. One detriment to the Copperheads is that they are geographically surrounded by other franchises, which might impact their popularity. The Arizona Outlaws, Colorado Yeti, and New Orleans Second Line already having established fanbases around them would likely make a fan's adoption of the Copperheads as their #1 team outside of Texas pretty tough.

• Better Landing Spots
  • Dallas-Fort Worth - Rank 5
    • This is a much better market than Austin, but the close proximity would probably keep the fanbase and viewership relatively the same.
  • Houston - Rank 8
    • I'd make the same argument for Houston as I did for Dallas-Fort Worth. Better markets, but likely wouldn't matter unless the number of teams in the NSFL grew exponentially.
  [/li]

Top Options for Relocation

Here are a few finishing notes that I have for other options that I feel are good landing spots for new or relocating teams. I restricted my options to North America, but it would be interesting to do a future analysis on an expansion to other continents!

US Options

New York: Rank 1

Boston, Mass: Rank 9

Seattle-Tacoma, WA: Rank 13

Detroit, MI: Rank 14

- These choices were mainly made either for pure viewership numbers or for lack of other team options in the immediate area. I think Seattle would be a great combination of a large market with no other teams too close to it.

Non-US Options

Mexico City: Population 8,918,653

- Mexico City would be my first bet for a team looking to relocate or become an expansion team in the future, US or non-US. With a population larger than New York City and no other NSFL teams in Mexico, Mexico City has the opportunity for an enormous fanbase inside and outside of the city. As a matter of fact, the team would likely be able to easily lock down most of the country as the #1 NSFL team to root for. If Tijuana's success in the DSFL is any indicator, a Mexico City team would be a great financial choice.

Toronto: Population 2,826,498

- I mentioned Toronto previously in the Yellowknife section, but this could be a landing spot for many teams. This is a huge market that could be extremely successful financially.

Havana, Cuba: 2,117,625

- I don't really have a justification for this, but I think it would be an awesome choice for relocation if a team ever decided to move.



Given everything that is here, I still think that there is a lot more analysis to be done here. Television markets are just one of the many reasons that a team might choose a location as their home base, and I'm sure my analysis could be easily improved by providing more perspectives. For the time being though, I figured a restricted look at what we currently have could be fun to look at. Thank you for reading, and I'd love to hear your thoughts on what I have!

[Raven]

Before the Second Line moved to New Orleans they were located in Las Vegas and known as the Las Vegas Legion!

Also fun article and thing to look into! Too bad rl marketability is boring and I love a black sheep location for teams.

[FleshBagSoup]

Lmao I never realized that Yellowknife was a so far away and such a small city/town

[Bigred1580]

Hey, Yellowknife is Canada's team. People fly in from all over the country on game day. We quadruple in size on game day! It is truly a site to see!!

But for real, fun article!

[YoungTB]

Someone tag me when Boston gets an expansion team/relocation

[infinitempg]

Another great alternative location for YKW would be Vancouver!

That being said, having a team in the middle of nowhere is awesome

[Jay_Doctor]

Really cool way to look at teams. Nice work man