*So You Want To Get Drafted?

[Colabear]

EDIT: It turns out this analysis is based on a flawed understanding of how the NSFL draft works - the comments under help shed light on the actual mechanics. I'll leave it to stand as a testament to my idiocy.

I've done a little bit of analysis to understand what it takes to get drafted in the S21 NSFL draft.

Every draft class is unique, so take caution in thinking that the results of this draft will apply to any other draft. This is especially true of the extra-large S22 draft intake.

Top 20 Players by TPE

jeffie43 - Prince Vegeta - 259 TPE - S
Frostbite - Dax Frost - 241 TPE - RB
nunccoepi - Immanuel Blackstone - 241 TPE - DE
MSombrero - Matt Murphy - 241 TPE - S
KoltClassic - Otis Allen - 230 TPE - DT
Voltaqe - Chris Kross - 226 TPE - WR
HalfEatenOnionBagel - Osiris Firestorm-Fjord - 226 TPE - TE
MN_Moosey - Leon McDavid - 212 TPE - TE
Vorshayla - HeHateMe PickSix - 211 TPE - CB
HENDRIX 2.0 - Douglas Quaid - 210 TPE - LB
Get_Right - Jerome Davis - 206 TPE - WR
iseedoug - Dougie Smalls - 206 TPE - K/P
SemiCharmedMike - Holden Summers - 203 TPE - LB
josh30601 - Sardine Beaner - 196 TPE - DT
SwagSloth - Baby Yoda - 194 TPE - RB
mcast55 - Chip Otle - 189 TPE - DE
BRNXB0MBERS - Pete "Plop" Miller - 189 TPE - DT
Leafer - George O’Donnell - 187 TPE - QB
Jackets28 - Zero Two - 186 TPE - QB
Lemon - Remon Kurisuto - 185 TPE - WR

We all know the big names who will go in the first and second rounds but let's focus on the lower rounds, the players on the edge of taking the step up to the big leagues.

With 10 teams and 6 rounds, there are 60 selections to be made. That means that if GMs drafted purely based on TPE, Herb Altee (S - Seawolves) would be the 60th player selected with 90 TPE and his teammate Jeff Personsacker (DE - Seawolves) would just miss out on 88 TPE.

14 Players on the Edge

frithjofr - Ugarth the Dissector - 105 TPE - LB
3lewsers - James Lewandowski - 103 TPE - TE
Iamdumberdore - Gronk Robertoswki - 100 TPE - TE
Raheem James - Raheem Okusi - 99 TPE - WR
Big Trusss - Smolder Bravestone - 97 TPE - WR
ap8333 - Jeremy Quellers - 95 TPE - CB
vulfgravy - Herb Altee - 90 TPE - S
jeffpersonsacker - Jeff Personsacker - 88 TPE - DE
Confusion - Hunter Young - 88 TPE - DE
Shak24 - Shakir Ahmed - 82 TPE - TE
H0PPY75 - Emmett Higgins - 82 TPE - OL
rubachikin - Rub A. Chikin - 82 TPE - S
MisObvious - Dillard Holcombe - 81 TPE - S
jmarnette - Jack Marnette - 80 TPE - CB

But as we all know teams' needs are deeper than just TPE and you can't always just draft the best available player. Positions matter. So what sort of balance do with find in those top 60 TPE players?

Position by position

Offence: 26
QB: 4
RB: 8
WR: 7
TE: 7
OL: 2

Defence: 29
DE: 7
DT: 6
LB: 8
CB: 4
S: 4

Special Teams
K/P: 3

With 26 offensive and 29 defensive players (along with 3 kickers) it's reasonably balanced on both sides of the ball. There are four quarterbacks and just two offensive linemen are in line to step up to the NSFL. Defensively expect the stock of defensive backs to rise with 4 cornerbacks and safeties in that group.

Of course it also comes down to how those TPE are distributed? What sorts of characters are behind them? Will they fit into the locker rooms? What direction are they trending? All these are questions for the experienced heads of NSFL GMs.

What do you think what surprises are in store in the coming draft?

[AdamS]

For the record they don't stop at 60. They'll keep going til it's done.

[Colabear]

Really? I saw someone say people often end up spending more than one year in the DSFL.

[Huskies311]

Really? I saw someone say people often end up spending more than one year in the DSFL.

In that situation, they’ll still be drafted. The NSFL GMs just won’t choose to bring you up

[Colabear]

In that situation, they’ll still be drafted. The NSFL GMs just won’t choose to bring you up

So the GMs are more just getting the rights to the player rather than making any commitment to having them on their team/roster?

How many players are typically brought up by each team each year?

[DeadlyPlayer]

So the GMs are more just getting the rights to the player rather than making any commitment to having them on their team/roster?

How many players are typically brought up by each team each year?

Exactly, and players getting sent up or down just depends on how the player and gms feel.

[Huskies311]

So the GMs are more just getting the rights to the player rather than making any commitment to having them on their team/roster?

How many players are typically brought up by each team each year?

That first part is essentially right. Every player will be drafted. That includes low TPE inactives, and people who created and don’t do anything else.

The second part is really dependent on a team’s roster and your position but generally, max earners won’t stay down at all, and semi-active earners will be down at most 1 season.

[nunccoepi]

Also, I'll add in there that whether the player plays in the DSFL or NSFL should be a collaborative decision by GM and player together. Sometimes it doesn't feel that way since a GM has a plan they're trying to work out, but try to keep it in mind.

[Colabear]

Thanks @nunccoepi @Huskies311 @DeadlyPlayer @AdamS, all super-helpful replies.

I've added a note on the original to highlight the errors and the answers within the comments, but I'll leave the original up since some may still find it interesting.

[Duilio05]

Despite the false permise, as a GM i still enjoyed your break down by position of the top 60 players. Nice to see how DB numbers compare to LB to DLine to Offense.

Dont' know if 60 was picked by accident, but as a GM i'll be suprised if anyone taken past pick 60 is still active. maybe one or two fall through the cracks of all the GM's scouting efforts, but I think that's a good expected cut off for this draft between drafting actives and inactives.

Of course where that cut off occurs is dependent on each individual class. Part of why I put the S21 class active/inactive cut off at about 60 is

1) one the size of the class, its just plain huge. a smaller class would have the cutoff in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.
2) this class has stayed a lot more active than similarly large previous classes, at least in my opinion. Think the active/inactive cut for S18 class was closer to 45.

But as said by others, we will draft every player regardless if they are active or not, but part of having a winning draft class is being able to find those players in the later rounds that are still active, if just barely, while your GM competition is taking inactives.

Edit: So that all said, some content to help connect your title to your work would be to look at the tpe level of those that are still active vs the tpe level of those that are inactive (defined as not made a forum post in over two weeks)