*The Math Behind Containing Opposing Quarterbacks

gucci · 03-18-2020, 09:47 AM

Every NSFL GM is up in iSteg’s DMs right now lol.

Jay_Doctor · 03-18-2020, 10:59 AM

If you aren't at $50 million by now, you are being robbed

**moonlight** · 03-18-2020, 12:10 PM

Awesome article. I'd like to see some data on quarterbacks. Not sure what the topic could be but I'm sure you've got some ideas.

**iStegosauruz** · (This post was last modified: 03-18-2020, 12:28 PM by iStegosauruz.)

(03-18-2020, 06:59 AM)Troen Wrote:The natural other suggestion (to me at least) is that the teams could have had a poor run defense - containing the QB doesn't help as much if you're giving up 200 rushing yards/game. Certainly possible it's more on the offense, but...
(I'm assuming the rushing attempts/yards/TDs in the formula are by the QB only)

And actually, looking at Liberty in S18, they were 7th overall in points scored/game, 4th overall in points allowed/game, 7th overall in rushing yards allowed/game, and (for completeness) 6th overall in passing yards allowed/game. They also had 4 1-score losses and finished 5th with 2 fewer wins than the 2nd place team in the conference, which is interesting.
(Edit: So I'd say the numbers don't really support my hypothetical, shrug)

Yeah so I definitely had the thought while doing the analysis and write-up that there was obviously more being successful on defense than containing opposing quarterbacks - its something I definitely could've plugged into the write up but must've gotten lost in my mind.

In terms of margin of victory I'm looking at a way to factor that in. It actually factors in to a traditional ELO system but I'm also tying to find a way to factor it into other things. I've got a pretty simple regression exercise I'm going to put out at some point that uses it.

(03-18-2020, 11:10 AM)moonlight Wrote:Awesome article. I'd like to see some data on quarterbacks. Not sure what the topic could be but I'm sure you've got some ideas.

Yeah I do but I'm still kicking methodology around in my head. The base level thing to do is to look at TPE compared to a variety of things. I'm trying to find things that more in-depth and innovative than that. My list of things to do keeps growing because I want to work more on a draft pick value chart but I may need more data to do that. I want to do the ELO system but thats going to be a headache. I want to rerun the OL test I did with groups above 550TPE. Lots of stuff piling on.

Also since I don't want to spam people with tags thanks for the feedback everybody - means a lot with how much work goes into these.