04-19-2020, 01:48 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-19-2020, 11:37 AM by iStegosauruz.)
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Introduction and Methodology[/div]
Just like that the Season 22 NSFL draft is over. Gone in a flash - 284 names read off, 284 new players finding new teams. One of the most exciting aspects of the draft is the build up to it. Speculation fills the air as everyone tries to craft the perfect mock draft, only to realize that they’re all essentially guesses. 194 people submitted a mock draft this year to the mock draft point task. This seasonal point task asks users to predict the first round of the draft. Trades do not matter - you just have to place the right player in the right slot.
I decided to figure out how accurate the league was with these mock drafts, who was the best at them, and where everyone screwed up. I went player by player and constructed a table with everyone’s picks that should showcase who was right and who was wrong at each slot. You can find that table here if you’re interested in looking at it. I’ll say this now as well, but just in case this is not a way for you to claim your TPE. My calculations may be wrong or have errors. Claim it from the point thread when it is posted there.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]First Overall
Austin Copperheads select Colt Mendoza (CB) Dallas Birddogs
[/div]
This was the pick that was correct the highest percentage of the time in the mock drafts - 98.5% of the mocks were correct with this pick. Of the 1.5% that weren’t - so 3 mocks - the picks were Mario von Pebbles, Susan Cash Jr., and Phat Boi.
The prediction of Mario von Pebbles was the farthest off here. He was eventually selected by the Philadelphia Liberty in the seventh round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Second Overall
New Orleans Second Line select Magnus Rikiya (DT) Norfolk Seawolves
[/div]
The second overall pick follows closely behind the first overall pick in terms of the amount of mocks that had it correct. 95.4% of mock draft respondents had this pick correct. Of the 4.6% that did not - 9 total mocks - top picks were Matt Cross with 6 mocks predicting him to go second overall and Buck Thornton, Phat Boi, and Ben Slothlisberger each with one mock predicting they’d go second overall.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who selected Buck Thornton here. Thornton eventually went to the Honolulu Hahalua at the start of the third round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Third Overall
Philadelphia Liberty select Matt Cross (S) Norfolk Seawolves
[/div]
Finally, a contentious pick. Only 16.5% of mock draft respondents had Matt Cross going third overall. He was mocked the most to Yellowknife at eleventh overall - 51% of the time. The favorite at this pick by far was Tyler Oles Jr., who was mocked here 44.3% of the time. Oles ended up sliding to the fourth pick in the second round.
The respondents who mocked Tyler Oles Jr. here were actually the farthest off of any respondents. All other players who were mocked here were chosen closer to this selection than Tylers Oles Jr.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Fourth Overall
Philadelphia Liberty select Brandon Booker (CB) Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
[/div]
The second cornerback in the first four picks comes off the board to Philadelphia here after a trade up with Arizona. With that in mind, however, all respondents had to do was get the player right here - the team didn't matter - and many thought that Arizona would take secondary help. Johnny Hellzapoppin, a safety, was mocked here the most - 28.4% of the time - while Tyler Oles Jr., a cornerback, was mocked here 19.1% of the time. Brandon Booker was predicted to go here 8.8% of the time.
The farthest off for this pick was the respondent who predicted the Liberty would take Lawrence Bass here. Bass eventually was selected by the San Jose Sabercats in the third round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Fifth Overall
San Jose Sabercats select Chester Sweets (CB) Kansas City Coyotes
[/div]
Teams are picking cornerbacks like they’re shopping for toilet paper during a pandemic. The third cornerback in the first five picks is snagged by San Jose here. He was tied for fourth in the amount of mocks that had him going here - 5.2%. Phat Boi was predicted here the most with 36.6% of the time, Derred de Ville was second at 29.9% of the time, and Johnny Hellzapoppin was third at 13.4% of the time.
The farthest off for this pick was the respondent who selected Jamar Lackson here. Lackson did end up with the Sabercats, however it was in the seventh round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Sixth Overall
Arizona Outlaws select Stanislaw Koniecpolski (LB) Dallas Birddogs
[/div]
Although this pick was originally Philadelphia’s, the community still nailed the prediction that Koniecpolski would be the sixth player off the board. 46.9% of mock drafts predicted he’d land here. His next most predicted location was to Baltimore at ninth overall with 33.5% of mocks having him going there. The runner-up to Koniecpolski in this spot was Johnny Hellzapoppin who was mocked here 19.6% of the time.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who selected Zamir Kehla here. Although Kehla did eventually wind up with the eventual owners of this pick, the Arizona Outlaws, that wasn’t until the fifth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Seventh Overall
Honolulu Hahalua select Phat Boi (DT) Kansas City Coyotes
[/div]
The community was close on this pick. 43.3% of mock drafts thought that Troen Egghands would land here, however he went to Austin with the seventh pick in the second round. Instead, Honolulu selected Phat Boi, who was mocked here 33.5% of the time.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who selected Sebastian Vettel here. Vettel eventually went to the other expansion team - the Sarasota Sailfish - in the eighth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Eight Overall
Colorado Yeti select Mo Magic (DT) Minnesota Grey Ducks
[/div]
This is the first pick in the draft that no one in the community got correct. 86.6% of people thought that Colorado would target Thubba Bumper here. Although the Yeti did end up targeting Bumper, they got him with the second pick in the second round, Mo Magic was the selection here for the Yeti.
The farthest off on this selection was the respondent who mocked Dax Kennedy in this spot. Kennedy eventually went to the Baltimore Hawks in the sixth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Ninth Overall
Baltimore Hawks select Derred de Ville (LB) London Royals
[/div]
The ninth overall pick was another pick that the community accurately predicted. 47.4% of mock drafters had Derred de Ville landing with the Hawks. Stanislaw Koniecpolski was second with 33.5% of mock drafts thinking he’d end up in Baltimore.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who had Bo Jangles mocked to go here. Jangles eventually went to the Sarasota Sailfish in the twelfth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Tenth Overall
Orange County Otters select Jeffrey Phillips (TE) Dallas Birddogs
[/div]
One of the most heavily predicted picks in the draft, 58.8% of respondents had Phillips landing with the Otters. A significant chunk of the community - 33% - felt that this pick would be running back and eventual first pick in the second round, White Goodman.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who predicted that Matt Krause would be the selection. Krause eventually went to the San Jose Sabercats in the seventh round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Eleventh Overall
Yellowknife Wraiths select Johnny Hellzapoppin (S) Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
[/div]
The community was close to predicting this pick correctly - Johnny Hellzapoppin was the third most popular pick for the Wraiths with 14.4% of respondents expecting them to take him. 51% thought that the Wraiths would end up with Matt Cross, the eventual third overall pick. 17% thought they would take Troen Egghands here.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who had Alexander Hamilton II selected here. He eventually went to the Philadelphia Liberty in the tenth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Twelfth Overall
New Orleans Second Line select Andrew Witten (CB) Tijuana Luchadores
[/div]
Similarly to eighth overall, no one in the community accurately predicted this pick. Ben Slothlisberger was the runaway favorite for this slot with 94.3% of the community thinking he’d end up in New Orleans. He eventually did, they selected him with the fifth pick in the second round. The only other player who was mocked to this spot more than one was Tyler Oles Jr., who was predicted to land here by two respondents.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who thought that the Second Line would make Luke Skywalker the selection here. Skywalker eventually was selected by the Honolulu Hahalua in the sixth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Conclusion[/div]
All in all the community only averaged 4.25 correct picks per mock draft. That is around a 35% accuracy rate per pick.
Just like that the Season 22 NSFL draft is over. Gone in a flash - 284 names read off, 284 new players finding new teams. One of the most exciting aspects of the draft is the build up to it. Speculation fills the air as everyone tries to craft the perfect mock draft, only to realize that they’re all essentially guesses. 194 people submitted a mock draft this year to the mock draft point task. This seasonal point task asks users to predict the first round of the draft. Trades do not matter - you just have to place the right player in the right slot.
I decided to figure out how accurate the league was with these mock drafts, who was the best at them, and where everyone screwed up. I went player by player and constructed a table with everyone’s picks that should showcase who was right and who was wrong at each slot. You can find that table here if you’re interested in looking at it. I’ll say this now as well, but just in case this is not a way for you to claim your TPE. My calculations may be wrong or have errors. Claim it from the point thread when it is posted there.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]First Overall
Austin Copperheads select Colt Mendoza (CB) Dallas Birddogs
[/div]
This was the pick that was correct the highest percentage of the time in the mock drafts - 98.5% of the mocks were correct with this pick. Of the 1.5% that weren’t - so 3 mocks - the picks were Mario von Pebbles, Susan Cash Jr., and Phat Boi.
The prediction of Mario von Pebbles was the farthest off here. He was eventually selected by the Philadelphia Liberty in the seventh round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Second Overall
New Orleans Second Line select Magnus Rikiya (DT) Norfolk Seawolves
[/div]
The second overall pick follows closely behind the first overall pick in terms of the amount of mocks that had it correct. 95.4% of mock draft respondents had this pick correct. Of the 4.6% that did not - 9 total mocks - top picks were Matt Cross with 6 mocks predicting him to go second overall and Buck Thornton, Phat Boi, and Ben Slothlisberger each with one mock predicting they’d go second overall.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who selected Buck Thornton here. Thornton eventually went to the Honolulu Hahalua at the start of the third round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Third Overall
Philadelphia Liberty select Matt Cross (S) Norfolk Seawolves
[/div]
Finally, a contentious pick. Only 16.5% of mock draft respondents had Matt Cross going third overall. He was mocked the most to Yellowknife at eleventh overall - 51% of the time. The favorite at this pick by far was Tyler Oles Jr., who was mocked here 44.3% of the time. Oles ended up sliding to the fourth pick in the second round.
The respondents who mocked Tyler Oles Jr. here were actually the farthest off of any respondents. All other players who were mocked here were chosen closer to this selection than Tylers Oles Jr.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Fourth Overall
Philadelphia Liberty select Brandon Booker (CB) Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
[/div]
The second cornerback in the first four picks comes off the board to Philadelphia here after a trade up with Arizona. With that in mind, however, all respondents had to do was get the player right here - the team didn't matter - and many thought that Arizona would take secondary help. Johnny Hellzapoppin, a safety, was mocked here the most - 28.4% of the time - while Tyler Oles Jr., a cornerback, was mocked here 19.1% of the time. Brandon Booker was predicted to go here 8.8% of the time.
The farthest off for this pick was the respondent who predicted the Liberty would take Lawrence Bass here. Bass eventually was selected by the San Jose Sabercats in the third round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Fifth Overall
San Jose Sabercats select Chester Sweets (CB) Kansas City Coyotes
[/div]
Teams are picking cornerbacks like they’re shopping for toilet paper during a pandemic. The third cornerback in the first five picks is snagged by San Jose here. He was tied for fourth in the amount of mocks that had him going here - 5.2%. Phat Boi was predicted here the most with 36.6% of the time, Derred de Ville was second at 29.9% of the time, and Johnny Hellzapoppin was third at 13.4% of the time.
The farthest off for this pick was the respondent who selected Jamar Lackson here. Lackson did end up with the Sabercats, however it was in the seventh round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Sixth Overall
Arizona Outlaws select Stanislaw Koniecpolski (LB) Dallas Birddogs
[/div]
Although this pick was originally Philadelphia’s, the community still nailed the prediction that Koniecpolski would be the sixth player off the board. 46.9% of mock drafts predicted he’d land here. His next most predicted location was to Baltimore at ninth overall with 33.5% of mocks having him going there. The runner-up to Koniecpolski in this spot was Johnny Hellzapoppin who was mocked here 19.6% of the time.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who selected Zamir Kehla here. Although Kehla did eventually wind up with the eventual owners of this pick, the Arizona Outlaws, that wasn’t until the fifth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Seventh Overall
Honolulu Hahalua select Phat Boi (DT) Kansas City Coyotes
[/div]
The community was close on this pick. 43.3% of mock drafts thought that Troen Egghands would land here, however he went to Austin with the seventh pick in the second round. Instead, Honolulu selected Phat Boi, who was mocked here 33.5% of the time.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who selected Sebastian Vettel here. Vettel eventually went to the other expansion team - the Sarasota Sailfish - in the eighth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Eight Overall
Colorado Yeti select Mo Magic (DT) Minnesota Grey Ducks
[/div]
This is the first pick in the draft that no one in the community got correct. 86.6% of people thought that Colorado would target Thubba Bumper here. Although the Yeti did end up targeting Bumper, they got him with the second pick in the second round, Mo Magic was the selection here for the Yeti.
The farthest off on this selection was the respondent who mocked Dax Kennedy in this spot. Kennedy eventually went to the Baltimore Hawks in the sixth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Ninth Overall
Baltimore Hawks select Derred de Ville (LB) London Royals
[/div]
The ninth overall pick was another pick that the community accurately predicted. 47.4% of mock drafters had Derred de Ville landing with the Hawks. Stanislaw Koniecpolski was second with 33.5% of mock drafts thinking he’d end up in Baltimore.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who had Bo Jangles mocked to go here. Jangles eventually went to the Sarasota Sailfish in the twelfth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Tenth Overall
Orange County Otters select Jeffrey Phillips (TE) Dallas Birddogs
[/div]
One of the most heavily predicted picks in the draft, 58.8% of respondents had Phillips landing with the Otters. A significant chunk of the community - 33% - felt that this pick would be running back and eventual first pick in the second round, White Goodman.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who predicted that Matt Krause would be the selection. Krause eventually went to the San Jose Sabercats in the seventh round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Eleventh Overall
Yellowknife Wraiths select Johnny Hellzapoppin (S) Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
[/div]
The community was close to predicting this pick correctly - Johnny Hellzapoppin was the third most popular pick for the Wraiths with 14.4% of respondents expecting them to take him. 51% thought that the Wraiths would end up with Matt Cross, the eventual third overall pick. 17% thought they would take Troen Egghands here.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who had Alexander Hamilton II selected here. He eventually went to the Philadelphia Liberty in the tenth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Twelfth Overall
New Orleans Second Line select Andrew Witten (CB) Tijuana Luchadores
[/div]
Similarly to eighth overall, no one in the community accurately predicted this pick. Ben Slothlisberger was the runaway favorite for this slot with 94.3% of the community thinking he’d end up in New Orleans. He eventually did, they selected him with the fifth pick in the second round. The only other player who was mocked to this spot more than one was Tyler Oles Jr., who was predicted to land here by two respondents.
The farthest off on this pick was the respondent who thought that the Second Line would make Luke Skywalker the selection here. Skywalker eventually was selected by the Honolulu Hahalua in the sixth round.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Conclusion[/div]
All in all the community only averaged 4.25 correct picks per mock draft. That is around a 35% accuracy rate per pick.