*NSFL Offenses Are Stuck In The Past

[Modern_Duke]

In the NFL, offensive philosophies shift over time. For example, as teams have incorporated more spread concepts from college football, in conjunction with offense-friendly rule changes, passing offenses have flourished over the last 20 years. Teams throw more often, and with dramatically more success than NFL teams in the 1960's and 1970's. Meanwhile, the days of "three yards and a cloud of dust" are all but dead, as teams run the ball more selectively, and therefore more efficiently.

But this isn't the NFL. How do NSFL offenses compare? Do NSFL offensive philosophies mirror those of Sean McVay, or more like Don Shula? Do we play like we have Patrick Mahomes, or like we have Jim Brown? Let's take a look

Numbers shown are league average, per game

Passing

Play Selection


The total numbers per game match up pretty well with the average NFL team in 1989. And it turns out NSFL really do not throw the ball very often. NSFL teams run more often than they throw, which has not been the case in the NFL since 1983.

Success


1989 is the best comparison again, as the raw numbers were so similar. Interceptions are clearly less prevalent in the NSFL though, which also results in a higher QB rating. The NFL has never seen fewer than 0.8 interceptions per game.

Advanced


*NY/A = (Yards + 20 x TD - 45 x Int) / Attempts

One thing NSFL offenses are certainly good at is avoiding interceptions (*cries in CB*), which made this comparison hard. In fact, the NFL has never had an Int % as low as the NSFL's 2.21% this season (lowest was 2.24% in 2016). But at least from an efficiency standpoint, the NSFL has moved out of the 1980's.

Rushing



And we're right back into the 80's. In terms of volume, the NSFL is actually more in line with the mid-1970's (NFL teams haven't run 33 times per game since 1979), but by efficiency more similar to current day (4.3 yards/carry in 2019). 1983 was something of a nice middle ground. But I suppose that answers the question of why NSFL teams run so much, because it works well, even at high volume.

Totals



NSFL teams play at a faster pace than the NFL ever has, but can't match the overall efficiency of today's NFL (22.8 points per game). The NFL has been over 5.40 yards per play every year since 2008, and over 0.31 points per play every year since 1979. NSFL running offenses work very well, but at the end of the day, an effective passing game like we see in the current NFL seems to get better results.

[iseedoug]

This is a cool article. Nice work.