07-26-2017, 09:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2017, 10:44 AM by JBLAZE_THE_BOSS.)
With a lot of bets being made and the league awarding accurate predictions, we at Football Insiders are putting together a three part series where we will be evaluating every team’s expected success in a segment we are calling “Buy the Numbers.” We were going to wait until the preseason ended to do this, but we figured we'd reward our readers by giving them reliable assessments.
Here’s how the formula works. We graded each team’s starting rosters (no depth), making basic allowances for starting players out of position if a similar position group needed a bit of help. We then calculated a total score for each team and compared that to the scores each team would be facing throughout the season. As there are 14 games on each team’s schedule, each team plays the other twice. While not ideal for rivalries, this does mean that every team faces the same difficulty aside from not having to face itself. Due to the random nature of games, the records are more conservatively predicted than you would get from just comparing team talent scores. Here were the results:
Orange County Otters: 11.0 wins. For a team like Orange County, just about any schedule is an easy schedule, but theirs begins a bit oddly. They will play their primary rival, Arizona, in weeks one and seven, but aside from those two games, they will face a lot of one-sided matchups. It’s difficult to imagine Orange County starting any worse than 5-2, and 6-1 seems far more likely, splitting the series with Arizona. They won’t face Colorado or Yellowknife until the second half of the season. Will their early success breed complacency? It’s worth noting that only Las Vegas brought home fewer people in the draft, so if Orange County doesn’t get it done this year or next, that window may very well close for them. However, Orange County seems to clearly be the best team this year.
Arizona Outlaws: 9.2 wins. The holders of the sole Ultimus Trophy will have to work pretty hard if they want to repeat. As is common with champions, many talented players left in the offseason. They’ll have to figure out how to replace those players with the young talent they drafted. Fortunately, despite having to compete against Orange County, they won’t need to worry too much about the rest of the conference, as there seems to be a pretty sharp drop off after the top two teams in each conference. While not as severe as Orange County, their schedule starts off significantly harder, but then will finish with easier matchups, with Arizona likely to win at least 5 of their last 7 games. If they can keep from losing confidence in their plan, this team could be rolling in to the playoffs with a LOT of momentum.
Colorado Yeti: 8.6 wins. This is a team that is almost impossible to reliably nail down. Despite making it to the Ultimus Bowl, they were blown out horribly, something that could have been seen based on their negative point differential throughout the season. It should be noted that the two closest teams in strength were Colorado and Yellowknife, and the second-closest were Colorado and Arizona, so expect a lot of close games. Fortunately for Colorado, this is a great team in close games, and I don’t think it is luck. Colorado may not have quite as many studs as Arizona or Orange County, but they have amazing depth. They can handle all kinds of sub packages without losing strength, and that will definitely come in handy. The Yeti have the misfortune of playing both Yellowknife and Arizona twice each in their first 6 games. Add a week 8 against the Otters, and the Yeti are likely to start 4-4 or even 3-5 before closing out 4 or 5 of their last 6. Like their fellow conference winners from Season One, staying strong through the early weeks is key.
Yellowknife Wraiths: 8.4 wins. As with Colorado, it is very difficult to predict their success, as they play their chief conference rival in weeks one and three. This season will be an emotional roller coaster for Yellowknife, starting with a very challenging five games that will likely start them 2-3 or 3-2, then a six game run of lesser opponents, followed by the toughest three game streak possible: Otters, Outlaws, Otters. Given how close the Yeti and Wraiths are in strength, and the huge difference in when each team faces easier and more difficult games, I think the NSFC race is going to be a lot more fun to watch. If the Wraiths split the series with the Yeti, expect the Wraiths to look like clear conference winners by week 11, only for the Yeti to make it a lot closer in the final weeks. It’s easy to discount Yellowknife’s chances of success, but with what looks to be the #1 offense in the league and a defense capable of making critical red zone stops, this team has almost as good a chance as the teams above it any given Sunday.
San Jose Saber Cats: 6.1 wins. According to our talent grades, the largest adjacent team gap in the league was between Yellowknife and San Jose. What’s sad is that the Cats do have some talent, just not in an ideal way. For example, they have the second-best wide receiver duo in the league (trailing only Orange County) with Bailey Cook and Shane Weston, and a perfectly capable line of blockers, but when the QB in that wonderful system is Ethan Hunt, it all kind of seems like a waste. Admittedly, Christian Adams will likely take over before mid-season, and if I were the Cats GM I would consider doing it even sooner.
Baltimore Hawks: 4.8 wins. If there is any team that has the potential to make me look bad, as in REALLY bad, it’s the Hawks. There are two reasons for this. 1) The Hawks drafted a LOT of good talent in the early rounds of the draft, making them a dangerous late-season opponent. 2) Their schedule starts off kind of easy. Five of their first six games are very winnable, two against the Cats, two against the Legion, and one against the Liberty. Now, I am not predicting they’ll start with five wins, as 2 or 3 is more likely, but with a little luck, they could have a strong start, then genuinely be good late in the season. Admittedly, though, I don’t see it happening.
Las Vegas Legion: 3.7 wins. Remember when I said that Colorado had amazing depth? Well, the Legion have a lot of redundancy. The difference is that depth is when your backup is almost as good as your starter. Redundancy is when your starter is almost as bad as your backup. The Legion employed a very bold strategy of trading for players instead of drafting. In some cases, it was a great idea. The Legion have talented players like Stormblessed and Alexander LeClaire on offense, and Tyler Varga and Mark Ramrio on defense. Unfortunately, I think their GM underestimated the value of mid-round picks, and instead traded for a lot of offensive players that they could have had equals of in the draft. Personally, I think that 3.7 wins is too high. The beginning of their schedule, when they can actually compete, is pretty brutal. By the time they get to face weaker opponents, they may have been left behind by harder working teams.
Philadelphia Liberty: 2.5 wins. Pretty much the opposite of the Legion in strategy, the Liberty might have an almost ideal schedule to leapfrog the Legion and finish above them. Similarly, if the Hawks don’t capitalize on their easy start, the Liberty could well find themselves finishing in 6th. This team is going to have it rough early on, likely not winning more than one of their first six games, but they’ll have a fighting chance to win four of their next eight games. Their general manager made a bold move in the draft by trading away the Season Three first rounder. The message was clear: we are NOT tanking for a top pick. There’s no question that the Liberty have the drive to succeed, but will they be able to make up all the ground they need just to be competitive?
GRADED
Here’s how the formula works. We graded each team’s starting rosters (no depth), making basic allowances for starting players out of position if a similar position group needed a bit of help. We then calculated a total score for each team and compared that to the scores each team would be facing throughout the season. As there are 14 games on each team’s schedule, each team plays the other twice. While not ideal for rivalries, this does mean that every team faces the same difficulty aside from not having to face itself. Due to the random nature of games, the records are more conservatively predicted than you would get from just comparing team talent scores. Here were the results:
Orange County Otters: 11.0 wins. For a team like Orange County, just about any schedule is an easy schedule, but theirs begins a bit oddly. They will play their primary rival, Arizona, in weeks one and seven, but aside from those two games, they will face a lot of one-sided matchups. It’s difficult to imagine Orange County starting any worse than 5-2, and 6-1 seems far more likely, splitting the series with Arizona. They won’t face Colorado or Yellowknife until the second half of the season. Will their early success breed complacency? It’s worth noting that only Las Vegas brought home fewer people in the draft, so if Orange County doesn’t get it done this year or next, that window may very well close for them. However, Orange County seems to clearly be the best team this year.
Arizona Outlaws: 9.2 wins. The holders of the sole Ultimus Trophy will have to work pretty hard if they want to repeat. As is common with champions, many talented players left in the offseason. They’ll have to figure out how to replace those players with the young talent they drafted. Fortunately, despite having to compete against Orange County, they won’t need to worry too much about the rest of the conference, as there seems to be a pretty sharp drop off after the top two teams in each conference. While not as severe as Orange County, their schedule starts off significantly harder, but then will finish with easier matchups, with Arizona likely to win at least 5 of their last 7 games. If they can keep from losing confidence in their plan, this team could be rolling in to the playoffs with a LOT of momentum.
Colorado Yeti: 8.6 wins. This is a team that is almost impossible to reliably nail down. Despite making it to the Ultimus Bowl, they were blown out horribly, something that could have been seen based on their negative point differential throughout the season. It should be noted that the two closest teams in strength were Colorado and Yellowknife, and the second-closest were Colorado and Arizona, so expect a lot of close games. Fortunately for Colorado, this is a great team in close games, and I don’t think it is luck. Colorado may not have quite as many studs as Arizona or Orange County, but they have amazing depth. They can handle all kinds of sub packages without losing strength, and that will definitely come in handy. The Yeti have the misfortune of playing both Yellowknife and Arizona twice each in their first 6 games. Add a week 8 against the Otters, and the Yeti are likely to start 4-4 or even 3-5 before closing out 4 or 5 of their last 6. Like their fellow conference winners from Season One, staying strong through the early weeks is key.
Yellowknife Wraiths: 8.4 wins. As with Colorado, it is very difficult to predict their success, as they play their chief conference rival in weeks one and three. This season will be an emotional roller coaster for Yellowknife, starting with a very challenging five games that will likely start them 2-3 or 3-2, then a six game run of lesser opponents, followed by the toughest three game streak possible: Otters, Outlaws, Otters. Given how close the Yeti and Wraiths are in strength, and the huge difference in when each team faces easier and more difficult games, I think the NSFC race is going to be a lot more fun to watch. If the Wraiths split the series with the Yeti, expect the Wraiths to look like clear conference winners by week 11, only for the Yeti to make it a lot closer in the final weeks. It’s easy to discount Yellowknife’s chances of success, but with what looks to be the #1 offense in the league and a defense capable of making critical red zone stops, this team has almost as good a chance as the teams above it any given Sunday.
San Jose Saber Cats: 6.1 wins. According to our talent grades, the largest adjacent team gap in the league was between Yellowknife and San Jose. What’s sad is that the Cats do have some talent, just not in an ideal way. For example, they have the second-best wide receiver duo in the league (trailing only Orange County) with Bailey Cook and Shane Weston, and a perfectly capable line of blockers, but when the QB in that wonderful system is Ethan Hunt, it all kind of seems like a waste. Admittedly, Christian Adams will likely take over before mid-season, and if I were the Cats GM I would consider doing it even sooner.
Baltimore Hawks: 4.8 wins. If there is any team that has the potential to make me look bad, as in REALLY bad, it’s the Hawks. There are two reasons for this. 1) The Hawks drafted a LOT of good talent in the early rounds of the draft, making them a dangerous late-season opponent. 2) Their schedule starts off kind of easy. Five of their first six games are very winnable, two against the Cats, two against the Legion, and one against the Liberty. Now, I am not predicting they’ll start with five wins, as 2 or 3 is more likely, but with a little luck, they could have a strong start, then genuinely be good late in the season. Admittedly, though, I don’t see it happening.
Las Vegas Legion: 3.7 wins. Remember when I said that Colorado had amazing depth? Well, the Legion have a lot of redundancy. The difference is that depth is when your backup is almost as good as your starter. Redundancy is when your starter is almost as bad as your backup. The Legion employed a very bold strategy of trading for players instead of drafting. In some cases, it was a great idea. The Legion have talented players like Stormblessed and Alexander LeClaire on offense, and Tyler Varga and Mark Ramrio on defense. Unfortunately, I think their GM underestimated the value of mid-round picks, and instead traded for a lot of offensive players that they could have had equals of in the draft. Personally, I think that 3.7 wins is too high. The beginning of their schedule, when they can actually compete, is pretty brutal. By the time they get to face weaker opponents, they may have been left behind by harder working teams.
Philadelphia Liberty: 2.5 wins. Pretty much the opposite of the Legion in strategy, the Liberty might have an almost ideal schedule to leapfrog the Legion and finish above them. Similarly, if the Hawks don’t capitalize on their easy start, the Liberty could well find themselves finishing in 6th. This team is going to have it rough early on, likely not winning more than one of their first six games, but they’ll have a fighting chance to win four of their next eight games. Their general manager made a bold move in the draft by trading away the Season Three first rounder. The message was clear: we are NOT tanking for a top pick. There’s no question that the Liberty have the drive to succeed, but will they be able to make up all the ground they need just to be competitive?
GRADED