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4. “Sim gonna sim” is a popular expression in the league. Write about teams that have been graced by the sim gods and had amazing performances despite statistical odds, and/or about teams that were considered favorites but may have dealt with some bad sim luck that hampered their efforts. How much of an impact did it have on their season(s)?
As soon as I saw this prompt, I instantly knew that I had another opportunity to vent about my team’s woes this season. As I mentioned in a recent media post the Chicago Butchers had an awful run of luck this season, so I’ll take this time to examine some of the more egregious ‘sim gonna sim’ moments in detail. First, it should be said that the Butchers should not have been a bad team this season. Average perhaps, but certainly undeserving of their 6-10 record. One can simply look to their -22 point differential (compare to Colorado’s -20 at 8-8 or Honolulu’s impressive -38 at 9-7), their 23,000 TPE (which of course includes an all human offensive line but is still in the upper echelon of teams), or their record of 4-8 in one possession games. Most of Chicago’s losses came down to the final drive, or even a single play.
WEEK 3, PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY AT CHICAGO BUTCHERS
Chicago kicker Sam Sidekick has just nailed a 53 yard field goal to give the Butchers a two point lead with five seconds to go in a hotly contested game. A properly coached football team would simply execute a squib kick—instead, Liberty wide receiver Flash Panda (@juniped) takes the kick out of their own end zone and returns it 102 yards to win the game for Philadelphia.
A heartbreaking loss for certain, but how improbable was it? According to the index, there were 624 kick returns this season, 3 of which were returned for a touchdown. This gives a ratio of 0.5%, but it does not account for kickoffs that result in touchbacks. However, I’ve no idea what the odds of a successful 75-yard hail mary would be after said touchback, so let’s keep it at 0.5% for now.
WEEK 9, SAN JOSE SABERCATS AT CHICAGO BUTCHERS
Déjà vu! Chicago kicker Sam Sidekick has just tacked on another would-be game winner, this time from 24 yards with 1:04 remaining. Even though it would be uncommon, 64 seconds is definitely enough time for a team to march down the field and get into scoring position. After a 23-yard return, the Sabercats managed consecutive gains of 12, 6, 1, and 10 yards and found themselves at the Butchers 46-yard line. This turned out to be of little consequence to San Jose kicker Matthew McDairmid (@Matty7478), who promptly nailed a 63-yard field goal to win the game for the Sabercats.
Without going through every single game in the index to see if field goals of this length were even attempted, hopefully I can convey the likelihood of this event by stating that 63 yards was the longest field goal of the season. In recent seasons a few 63-yard field goals have been scored, and in all instances they have been scored by either McDairmid or Yellowknife Wraiths kicker Blago Kokot. Both of these kickers are the only ones in the league with a Kick Power rating of 100, so I would postulate that other kickers are not even capable of making field goals of this length. Simply put, Chicago wins outright against 11 of 13 teams in this scenario. Let’s be conservative and use the San Jose and Yellowknife conversion rates on field goals of 50+ of 9/11 and 4/7 respectively for an approximate probability of (9/11 + 4/7) / 13 ~= 10.7%, though a field goal of 50 yards must surely be easier than one from 64.
WEEK 11, CHICAGO BUTCHERS AT SARASOTA SAILFISH
After Sarasota kicker Jacob Small (@bjkman) made a 51-yard field goal to tie the game with 19 seconds to go, I assumed that the worst case scenario would be an overtime loss to the Sailfish. The monkey’s paw curled (though the middle digit may still have been extended) to avoid this outcome entirely. The ensuing kickoff went through the end zone for a touchback—even if this had simply not transpired and a return of any length had occurred, there would not have been enough time left for the remaining chain of events. First down—O’Donnell throws an incomplete pass that is broken up by Mango-Panda. Three seconds elapse, 0:16 remaining. Second down—O’Donnell throws another incomplete pass in the direction of Tree Gelbman. Six seconds elapse, 0:10 remaining. Third down—a completion to Gelbman but it’s only for eight yards, bringing up 4th down.
At this point, a normal team would simply let time expire (or perhaps the defense would call a timeout to hope for a punt block or miracle punt return, but Sarasota had none remaining). Instead, the Butchers called a time-out. Inadvisable, but perhaps the logic here is that they can attempt a hail mary—stranger things have happened. With four seconds to go, the Butchers … run the ball? That’s right, we ran the ball on 4th and 2 from our own 33 yard line. The team was appropriately punished for this horrendous decision, as Hayes was stopped after just one yard, and the Sarasota timekeeper suspiciously only let the game clock run for a whopping two seconds to give the ball back to the Sailfish with enough time for Small to make his second 51-yard field goal in a seventeen second span. Of additional note here is that outside of this game, Small was 2/4 on field goals of 50 yards or more.
As for the probability, it's a little too complex for me to figure out. Let's just say that this will probably never happen again. Surely no team would make the same mistake twice. ...Right?