05-17-2022, 12:52 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-23-2022, 11:32 AM by allbetsonjames. Edited 1 time in total.)
I have bad takes. Honestly the smart move is probably to bet against me.
Proceed at your own risk. Please gamble responsibly, you filthy degenerates.
Bet 1: Carter Knight (SAR) Passing Yards O/U 260.5 (vs. HON)
Bet: OVER
Meaningless Subjective Personal Confidence Rating: MEDIUM
I quite like the OVER for Carter Knight here. The Sarasota phenom is averaging 280 yards per game, and had well over 261 yards passing in 5 of 8 games so far, including 3 games of 300+ yards. The opponent does give me some pause, however. Honolulu has allowed the fewest points in the league by a significant margin, leads the league in sacks, and with 56 passes broken up trails only New Orleans' 57 PDs. Only 3 opposing QBs have managed to hit this over against Honolulu this season. However, their run defense is even more suffocating; they've held opposing teams under 100 yards rushing for 6 straight weeks, and under 80 yards in 5 of those weeks. Their loss to NOLA in Week 2 is also a defensive outlier; IsHe ReallyInvisible only threw for 141 yards, but only attempted 25 passes as he and The Stig torched the Hahalua for more than 120 yards rushing apiece. Ignoring the NOLA game as an outlier, Honolulu is allowing 263 average yards passing and just 67 average yards rushing. Saleem Spence, Nick Kaepercolin Jr., Lucius Salem, and John Huntsman are all more than capable of significant YAC, and I think they will help Knight to hit this OVER, especially if they have to abandon the run early.
Bet 2: The Stig (NOLA) Rushing Attempts O/U 17.5 (@BER)
Bet: OVER
Confidence: LOW
The rushing threat presented by IsHe ReallyInvisible inevitably cuts into Stig's opportunities, and Berlin's fierce pass rush (31 sacks) could lead to more QB runs. Stig's 4 Unders this season were 10, 12, 14, and 17 attempts, while his Overs were all comfortably over (1 game with 19, 3 games with 20+ attempts). With only 1 close Under and no close Overs, 17.5 is a tricky line. I anticipate a physical, low-scoring game in this matchup, and that makes me lean slightly towards the Over.
Bet 3: Vincent Sharpei Jr. (CHI) Longest Reception O/U 28.5 Yards (vs. NYS)
Bet: UNDER
Confidence: HIGH
This is a difficult bet to assess based on the data, but I prefer the Under. The Over is more than double his average of 12.9 yards per reception. Besides that, it's the veteran Mike Hunt who appears to be the preferred deep target for Kazimir Oles Jr. this season, with 15.5 average yards per reception and 8 TDs to Sharpei's 3 so far. Only 4 of Sharpei's 54 catches on the year hit this Over, and most have been under 20 yards. That being said, the Longest Reception stat is subject to more inherent randomness than most; proceed cautiously. Sharpei's speed can turn any short throw into a long one, but I think the Silverbacks' excellent safeties will keep him in front of them and keep the yardage down.
Bet 4: Raeni Clarke (SJS) Passes Defensed O/U 1.5 (@PHI)
Bet: OVER
Confidence: MEDIUM
Clarke leads the league in PDs with 21, but more than half of them came in the first two weeks of the season. She has cooled off a bit after posting a whopping 8 PDs in Week 1 and 4 more in Week 2. However, she has 2 PDs in 4/6 games since. Philadelphia is a run-heavy team with Lonnie Jackson, but QB Ryan Negs still averages 34 passing attempts per game; I think Clarke can swat at least 2 of them.
Bet 5: Swantavius King (SAR) Longest Field Goal Made O/U 42.5 yards (vs. HON)
Bet: OVER
Confidence: LOW
This is another interesting one with a lot of randomness involved. The outstanding rookie is 7/9 from 40 yards and longer this season, and 6/8 on kicks that would hit the OVER. However, 6 of those 8 attempts from beyond 42.5 yards came in just the past two weeks. He went 5/6 on those attempts. King has both the accuracy and the leg to make these kicks, the question is will he attempt a FG of at least 43 yards against the Hahalua? I think the lines of scrimmage for a 43-57 yard FG attempt fall between the 26 and the 40. Will the Hahalua defense stall at least 1 Sarasota drive in this range? I think it's very possible considering the explosiveness of the Sailfish offense and the stoutness of Honolulu's defense. But there's a lot of randomness here, so the confidence level isn't high.
Bet 6: Bernie Sanders (ARI) Pancakes O/U 7.5 (@BAL)
Bet: UNDER
Confidence: HIGH
Trivia fact! Did you know that the Outlaws' geriatric offensive tackle serves as a U.S. Senator from Vermont in his spare time? Sanders has 8 or more pancakes in 4/8 games so far, but also has games with just 2 and 3 pancakes this season. Baltimore's rush is a little anemic, with just 12 TFLs (t-last) and 23 sacks (9th) so far on the year, and I just don't know if the opportunity is going to be there for Sanders to build much of a stack. I think this line is maybe 1 point too high, O/U 6.5 would have me scratching my head, but I like the Under on 7.5.
810 words
Please do not @ me about how bad my picks are.
Proceed at your own risk. Please gamble responsibly, you filthy degenerates.
Bet 1: Carter Knight (SAR) Passing Yards O/U 260.5 (vs. HON)
Bet: OVER
Meaningless Subjective Personal Confidence Rating: MEDIUM
I quite like the OVER for Carter Knight here. The Sarasota phenom is averaging 280 yards per game, and had well over 261 yards passing in 5 of 8 games so far, including 3 games of 300+ yards. The opponent does give me some pause, however. Honolulu has allowed the fewest points in the league by a significant margin, leads the league in sacks, and with 56 passes broken up trails only New Orleans' 57 PDs. Only 3 opposing QBs have managed to hit this over against Honolulu this season. However, their run defense is even more suffocating; they've held opposing teams under 100 yards rushing for 6 straight weeks, and under 80 yards in 5 of those weeks. Their loss to NOLA in Week 2 is also a defensive outlier; IsHe ReallyInvisible only threw for 141 yards, but only attempted 25 passes as he and The Stig torched the Hahalua for more than 120 yards rushing apiece. Ignoring the NOLA game as an outlier, Honolulu is allowing 263 average yards passing and just 67 average yards rushing. Saleem Spence, Nick Kaepercolin Jr., Lucius Salem, and John Huntsman are all more than capable of significant YAC, and I think they will help Knight to hit this OVER, especially if they have to abandon the run early.
Bet 2: The Stig (NOLA) Rushing Attempts O/U 17.5 (@BER)
Bet: OVER
Confidence: LOW
The rushing threat presented by IsHe ReallyInvisible inevitably cuts into Stig's opportunities, and Berlin's fierce pass rush (31 sacks) could lead to more QB runs. Stig's 4 Unders this season were 10, 12, 14, and 17 attempts, while his Overs were all comfortably over (1 game with 19, 3 games with 20+ attempts). With only 1 close Under and no close Overs, 17.5 is a tricky line. I anticipate a physical, low-scoring game in this matchup, and that makes me lean slightly towards the Over.
Bet 3: Vincent Sharpei Jr. (CHI) Longest Reception O/U 28.5 Yards (vs. NYS)
Bet: UNDER
Confidence: HIGH
This is a difficult bet to assess based on the data, but I prefer the Under. The Over is more than double his average of 12.9 yards per reception. Besides that, it's the veteran Mike Hunt who appears to be the preferred deep target for Kazimir Oles Jr. this season, with 15.5 average yards per reception and 8 TDs to Sharpei's 3 so far. Only 4 of Sharpei's 54 catches on the year hit this Over, and most have been under 20 yards. That being said, the Longest Reception stat is subject to more inherent randomness than most; proceed cautiously. Sharpei's speed can turn any short throw into a long one, but I think the Silverbacks' excellent safeties will keep him in front of them and keep the yardage down.
Bet 4: Raeni Clarke (SJS) Passes Defensed O/U 1.5 (@PHI)
Bet: OVER
Confidence: MEDIUM
Clarke leads the league in PDs with 21, but more than half of them came in the first two weeks of the season. She has cooled off a bit after posting a whopping 8 PDs in Week 1 and 4 more in Week 2. However, she has 2 PDs in 4/6 games since. Philadelphia is a run-heavy team with Lonnie Jackson, but QB Ryan Negs still averages 34 passing attempts per game; I think Clarke can swat at least 2 of them.
Bet 5: Swantavius King (SAR) Longest Field Goal Made O/U 42.5 yards (vs. HON)
Bet: OVER
Confidence: LOW
This is another interesting one with a lot of randomness involved. The outstanding rookie is 7/9 from 40 yards and longer this season, and 6/8 on kicks that would hit the OVER. However, 6 of those 8 attempts from beyond 42.5 yards came in just the past two weeks. He went 5/6 on those attempts. King has both the accuracy and the leg to make these kicks, the question is will he attempt a FG of at least 43 yards against the Hahalua? I think the lines of scrimmage for a 43-57 yard FG attempt fall between the 26 and the 40. Will the Hahalua defense stall at least 1 Sarasota drive in this range? I think it's very possible considering the explosiveness of the Sailfish offense and the stoutness of Honolulu's defense. But there's a lot of randomness here, so the confidence level isn't high.
Bet 6: Bernie Sanders (ARI) Pancakes O/U 7.5 (@BAL)
Bet: UNDER
Confidence: HIGH
Trivia fact! Did you know that the Outlaws' geriatric offensive tackle serves as a U.S. Senator from Vermont in his spare time? Sanders has 8 or more pancakes in 4/8 games so far, but also has games with just 2 and 3 pancakes this season. Baltimore's rush is a little anemic, with just 12 TFLs (t-last) and 23 sacks (9th) so far on the year, and I just don't know if the opportunity is going to be there for Sanders to build much of a stack. I think this line is maybe 1 point too high, O/U 6.5 would have me scratching my head, but I like the Under on 7.5.
810 words
Please do not @ me about how bad my picks are.