05-31-2022, 05:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022, 08:47 PM by soevil. Edited 1 time in total.)
The spreadsheet right below is all 128 possible outcomes when it comes to the NSFC playoffs. I thought of writing something to explain, but I guess I can add sheets to it, based on demand. I have the most crazy scenario of all laid out already in a nice sheet, cascading into how it will be solved by the sim. I guess enjoy, and see you at the top. We are in for an insane finish.
To give the ASFC peeps something to chew on, any combination of OCO wins and SJS losses that adds up to at least 2, sends OCO to the post season and the cats at home. However, if SJS wins out and OCO drops a game, SJS makes it in, by having a better divisional record. As for the bye, HON wins out and gets it. OR one win and a AZ loss. HON has a better division record than AZ. AZ needs one more win than HON in the last two games.
Click here!
However, I want to point some interesting things I saw in the counting of every scenario of the seven games involving the six NSFC teams separated by one win. Let's start by seeing the teams and their records after 14 games, and the games we are interested in.
As you can see, it is six teams separated by one win. By some basic math, and excluding ties, as ties rarely show up, there is 2*2*2*2*2*2*2=2^7=128 scenarios. All mapped out in the sheet above. What I have not mapped out is how each scenario plays out with the ties. Again, I can start adding some if there is enough demand, but I can definitely remind you all of the tiebreaking rules, that are as follows:
If, in any step, the number of the teams tied is reduced, it reverts to step 1.
Now, let's see something interesting:
What does this tell us? How many times a certain number of teams, as shown in the left column, has the number of wins noted in the top row. So, yes, there is a chance we get a 6-way tie for 1st in the NSFC among all six teams. How does that go? I have it laid out in the spreadsheet, but let's also post the images here, so you can get a taste of what's to come.
First, The games should go like this:
And the final standings are as follows:
What does that scenario tell us? That nothing gets decided tomorrow. It will all come down to Friday. The only thing that can be decided in week 15 is Chicago securing the berth or not. All they need is to defeat Yellowknife, and they are in. You will see above that there is a scenario where 4 teams tie with 9 wins, but it goes as follows:
Which means that, in this case, it will come down to how much Chicago and Baltimore end up scoring, to determine HFA through the NSFC. As HFA through Ultimus will go to the ASFC winner. I know we are using neutral locations, but the sim does not really do that.
So, buckle up, we are in for a wild ride. I will come back with an update, and more detail as it will only be 8 scenarios to cover after tomorrow's sim! Take care everyone! And don't hesitate if you want to see any specific scenario laid out. Just tell me what column to look at.
To give the ASFC peeps something to chew on, any combination of OCO wins and SJS losses that adds up to at least 2, sends OCO to the post season and the cats at home. However, if SJS wins out and OCO drops a game, SJS makes it in, by having a better divisional record. As for the bye, HON wins out and gets it. OR one win and a AZ loss. HON has a better division record than AZ. AZ needs one more win than HON in the last two games.
Click here!
However, I want to point some interesting things I saw in the counting of every scenario of the seven games involving the six NSFC teams separated by one win. Let's start by seeing the teams and their records after 14 games, and the games we are interested in.
As you can see, it is six teams separated by one win. By some basic math, and excluding ties, as ties rarely show up, there is 2*2*2*2*2*2*2=2^7=128 scenarios. All mapped out in the sheet above. What I have not mapped out is how each scenario plays out with the ties. Again, I can start adding some if there is enough demand, but I can definitely remind you all of the tiebreaking rules, that are as follows:
- Head-to-head record among teams in question.
- Division record
- Points For
- Cointoss by the sim
If, in any step, the number of the teams tied is reduced, it reverts to step 1.
Now, let's see something interesting:
What does this tell us? How many times a certain number of teams, as shown in the left column, has the number of wins noted in the top row. So, yes, there is a chance we get a 6-way tie for 1st in the NSFC among all six teams. How does that go? I have it laid out in the spreadsheet, but let's also post the images here, so you can get a taste of what's to come.
First, The games should go like this:
And the final standings are as follows:
What does that scenario tell us? That nothing gets decided tomorrow. It will all come down to Friday. The only thing that can be decided in week 15 is Chicago securing the berth or not. All they need is to defeat Yellowknife, and they are in. You will see above that there is a scenario where 4 teams tie with 9 wins, but it goes as follows:
Which means that, in this case, it will come down to how much Chicago and Baltimore end up scoring, to determine HFA through the NSFC. As HFA through Ultimus will go to the ASFC winner. I know we are using neutral locations, but the sim does not really do that.
So, buckle up, we are in for a wild ride. I will come back with an update, and more detail as it will only be 8 scenarios to cover after tomorrow's sim! Take care everyone! And don't hesitate if you want to see any specific scenario laid out. Just tell me what column to look at.