02-06-2023, 03:47 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2023, 01:46 PM by Caleb_H. Edited 2 times in total.)
This is a fairly basic look at each teams draft needs, based primarily on the TPE each team has available according to the league's TPE tracker. I am taking this approach because I have only joined the league a few days ago and don't really have a pulse on what exactly is going on. I very well may be entirely off-base in a lot of my analysis for a few reasons:
1. I do not believe the TPE tracker has accounted for players leaving/joining in free agency. I have made adjustments where I can, but otherwise the chart is entirely constructed on the assumption that all free agents are returning to their teams for the next season. This will almost certainly not be true, and will alter the actual outcome of the draft significantly.
2. I have no idea what is going on within the team locker rooms.
3. The TPE tracker seems to be slightly outdated. I don't believe this will be a particularly big problem.
4. My analysis does not greatly account for age/development. In regards to age, I am only really looking at whether a player is 'regressing', wherein I am defining a player as 'regressing' if their 'Highest TPE' is greater than their 'Current TPE' (per the TPE tracker). This definition is for convenience's sake and not entirely accurate. Furthermore I am aware that a younger player may have a somewhat low TPE and nevertheless be ahead-of-the-curve in their development.
With that out of the way I'll now introduce the centerpiece of my analysis, which is this fuck-huge spreadsheet which I spent way too much time working on because I don't exactly know how to scrape data from websites. (please pay me extra for the spreadsheet please) There's nothing special here—I've just taken account of the TPE within each teams various position groups. I then took the average TPE/player for each position group, and tried to adjust for low-end outliers by looking only at the TPE values of the top players at each team's positions, i.e. their starters, while making some assumptions:
So I took the top:
1 QB
5 OL (lol)
2 DT
2 DE
3 LB
2 CB
2 S
1 K/P
For the skill positions, I compared a team's FB1, WR3, and TE2 to determine what personnel grouping they would prefer, in which a team with a better fullback would use a 21 personnel (1/14 teams), a team with a better TE2 would use 12 personnel (0/14 teams), and a team with a better WR3 would use 11 personnel (13/14 teams). So under this methodology every team except for OCO is best fit for 11 personnel, so for those teams their WR3 is considered to be a starter. For OCO I consider their FB to be a starter.
Given those averages, we get the following graphs:
If you look at those charts I think they paint a pretty decent at-a-glance picture of what each teams' draft needs might be. For example it is glaringly obvious that HON needs a DT, especially since they only have one at the moment. With all of this in mind I think it's time to start going through the first round of the draft and try to get a sense of where things might land.
R1 Pick 1: Honolulu - KCC DE Alex Armstrong @Duilio05
Oh look! It's Honolulu, and I just a moment ago mentioned their need of DT talent. That being said, they're in bottom 3 in the league for TPE/starter in every defensive position group, and the top of the class has plenty of defensive talent. I think taking a DE first overall will make for an excellent start for Honolulu.
R1 Pick 2: Berlin - NOR RB Howard Coward @JKortesi81
Once again I think Berlin would love to go DT here, however they have a pretty well-rounded roster and can easily afford to take the top RB in the draft, Howard Coward. I don't hate the idea of trading down from this spot, I think they are well-suited for it, as they are in greater need of depth than star power.
R1 Pick 3: Orange County - BBB CB Jamdrian LeBayers @kenvald
In the spreadsheet I mention that one of Orange County's top priorities should be to get younger on defense, and they have the perfect opportunity to do that by taking the highest ranked player overall in Jamdrian LeBayers.
R1 Pick 4: Baltimore - NOR TE Big McLarge Huge @Hydrium
Baltimore would have really loved to go for a top CB here, assuming I'm right in that they only have 1 CB on the roster. Maybe LeBayers drops to them if they're lucky. They already have 4 safeties and 4 linebackers, so they probably won't be especially interested in a lot of the available top talent that's left for them. I think they're in a great position to either trade down or trade up with Berlin, but if they don't, I think taking a top TE will suit them very well.
R1 Pick 5: New York - DAL S Notso Smart @Pib
I think New York is happy to take the best available player. I also think Notso Smart is a good complement to make New York's Safety room very well-rounded.
R1 Pick 6: San Jose - DAL LB Liv Elsathelookout @Bayley
San Jose already has 4 LB's on their roster, and taking a fifth might make their room a little crowded. They may consider reaching for a DT or WR instead, or trading down. Nevertheless Liv is #3 on the S40 TPE charts and San Jose shouldn't be complaining if they take them.
R1 Pick 7: Cape Town - POR LB Fronky Fresh @Fronk
Cape Town is one of the few teams that can really take advantage of this draft's abundance of talent at linebacker, so I think they'd not want to overthink this.
R1 Pick 8: Orange County - LON DT Lionel Scrimmage @Mojojojo
Orange County has a lot of decent options here; taking a wide receiver wouldn't be a bad idea, taking a linebacker might be justifiable (OCO already has 5 linebackers listed, however, and may not want to add to that). One team has to be the one to reach down for a DT, however, and I think Orange County is going to have to bite the bullet. As the top DT of the draft, Lionel Scrimmage is going to be very popular amongst the numerous DT-deplete teams.
R1 Pick 9: Sarasota - POR RB Tyler One @pauadrian
Sarasota is probably going into the draft looking for a new running back to fill out their room, and a top RB is readily available for them here.
R1 Pick 10: Austin - KCC TE Clint Mustache @manicmav36
I don't think it would be unwise for Austin to take the best available player here; they could use some depth at linebacker, but I also don't think they mind taking the second tight end of the draft, either. They could potentially try to hold out and wait for a S41 class that could be stacked with TE talent, but I think taking a tight end here will be perfectly satisfactory to them.
R1 Pick 11: Baltimore - KCC WR Jimmy Ryder @AJW
Baltimore is getting pretty old at wide receiver and would be ecstatic to take the first wide receiver of the draft. Between this pick and their #4 pick overall of tight end, Baltimore would feel much better about their skill position group going into the next season.
R1 Pick 12: Chicago - MIN LB Wälter Gunther @KenitohMenara
Chicago's needs are at wide receiver and the defensive line, but they'd have to reach pretty far to take a wide receiver over the best available linebacker, who might do well to keep Chicago fresh at the position.
R1 Pick 13: Arizona - BBB LB Money Tolliver @jeffie43
I think Arizona would love to trade out of this spot, as they are not in great need of a running back or tight end. They don't mind a linebacker but also might not be actively seeking them out, either.
R1 Pick 14: Honolulu - MIN DT Sir Tywrell Xah’Aawrone @Rabidsponge21
For the final pick of the first round Honolulu should love to take even more defensive line talent, especially a defensive tackle. Between their two picks that sandwich the first round, Honolulu would be much more comfortable with their defensive line going into the next season.
Okay, that's all I've got for now. I wouldn't be especially surprised to be entirely off-base here, so I guess I'll just have to wait and see what happens. Best of luck to everyone in the draft, and thank you for reading.
LINK TO THE SPREADSHEET
1. I do not believe the TPE tracker has accounted for players leaving/joining in free agency. I have made adjustments where I can, but otherwise the chart is entirely constructed on the assumption that all free agents are returning to their teams for the next season. This will almost certainly not be true, and will alter the actual outcome of the draft significantly.
2. I have no idea what is going on within the team locker rooms.
3. The TPE tracker seems to be slightly outdated. I don't believe this will be a particularly big problem.
4. My analysis does not greatly account for age/development. In regards to age, I am only really looking at whether a player is 'regressing', wherein I am defining a player as 'regressing' if their 'Highest TPE' is greater than their 'Current TPE' (per the TPE tracker). This definition is for convenience's sake and not entirely accurate. Furthermore I am aware that a younger player may have a somewhat low TPE and nevertheless be ahead-of-the-curve in their development.
With that out of the way I'll now introduce the centerpiece of my analysis, which is this fuck-huge spreadsheet which I spent way too much time working on because I don't exactly know how to scrape data from websites. (please pay me extra for the spreadsheet please) There's nothing special here—I've just taken account of the TPE within each teams various position groups. I then took the average TPE/player for each position group, and tried to adjust for low-end outliers by looking only at the TPE values of the top players at each team's positions, i.e. their starters, while making some assumptions:
- Teams will use the WR-RB-TE personnel grouping that maximizes the TPE on the field.
- Teams will use a base 4-3 defense.
So I took the top:
1 QB
5 OL (lol)
2 DT
2 DE
3 LB
2 CB
2 S
1 K/P
For the skill positions, I compared a team's FB1, WR3, and TE2 to determine what personnel grouping they would prefer, in which a team with a better fullback would use a 21 personnel (1/14 teams), a team with a better TE2 would use 12 personnel (0/14 teams), and a team with a better WR3 would use 11 personnel (13/14 teams). So under this methodology every team except for OCO is best fit for 11 personnel, so for those teams their WR3 is considered to be a starter. For OCO I consider their FB to be a starter.
Given those averages, we get the following graphs:
If you look at those charts I think they paint a pretty decent at-a-glance picture of what each teams' draft needs might be. For example it is glaringly obvious that HON needs a DT, especially since they only have one at the moment. With all of this in mind I think it's time to start going through the first round of the draft and try to get a sense of where things might land.
R1 Pick 1: Honolulu - KCC DE Alex Armstrong @Duilio05
Oh look! It's Honolulu, and I just a moment ago mentioned their need of DT talent. That being said, they're in bottom 3 in the league for TPE/starter in every defensive position group, and the top of the class has plenty of defensive talent. I think taking a DE first overall will make for an excellent start for Honolulu.
R1 Pick 2: Berlin - NOR RB Howard Coward @JKortesi81
Once again I think Berlin would love to go DT here, however they have a pretty well-rounded roster and can easily afford to take the top RB in the draft, Howard Coward. I don't hate the idea of trading down from this spot, I think they are well-suited for it, as they are in greater need of depth than star power.
R1 Pick 3: Orange County - BBB CB Jamdrian LeBayers @kenvald
In the spreadsheet I mention that one of Orange County's top priorities should be to get younger on defense, and they have the perfect opportunity to do that by taking the highest ranked player overall in Jamdrian LeBayers.
R1 Pick 4: Baltimore - NOR TE Big McLarge Huge @Hydrium
Baltimore would have really loved to go for a top CB here, assuming I'm right in that they only have 1 CB on the roster. Maybe LeBayers drops to them if they're lucky. They already have 4 safeties and 4 linebackers, so they probably won't be especially interested in a lot of the available top talent that's left for them. I think they're in a great position to either trade down or trade up with Berlin, but if they don't, I think taking a top TE will suit them very well.
R1 Pick 5: New York - DAL S Notso Smart @Pib
I think New York is happy to take the best available player. I also think Notso Smart is a good complement to make New York's Safety room very well-rounded.
R1 Pick 6: San Jose - DAL LB Liv Elsathelookout @Bayley
San Jose already has 4 LB's on their roster, and taking a fifth might make their room a little crowded. They may consider reaching for a DT or WR instead, or trading down. Nevertheless Liv is #3 on the S40 TPE charts and San Jose shouldn't be complaining if they take them.
R1 Pick 7: Cape Town - POR LB Fronky Fresh @Fronk
Cape Town is one of the few teams that can really take advantage of this draft's abundance of talent at linebacker, so I think they'd not want to overthink this.
R1 Pick 8: Orange County - LON DT Lionel Scrimmage @Mojojojo
Orange County has a lot of decent options here; taking a wide receiver wouldn't be a bad idea, taking a linebacker might be justifiable (OCO already has 5 linebackers listed, however, and may not want to add to that). One team has to be the one to reach down for a DT, however, and I think Orange County is going to have to bite the bullet. As the top DT of the draft, Lionel Scrimmage is going to be very popular amongst the numerous DT-deplete teams.
R1 Pick 9: Sarasota - POR RB Tyler One @pauadrian
Sarasota is probably going into the draft looking for a new running back to fill out their room, and a top RB is readily available for them here.
R1 Pick 10: Austin - KCC TE Clint Mustache @manicmav36
I don't think it would be unwise for Austin to take the best available player here; they could use some depth at linebacker, but I also don't think they mind taking the second tight end of the draft, either. They could potentially try to hold out and wait for a S41 class that could be stacked with TE talent, but I think taking a tight end here will be perfectly satisfactory to them.
R1 Pick 11: Baltimore - KCC WR Jimmy Ryder @AJW
Baltimore is getting pretty old at wide receiver and would be ecstatic to take the first wide receiver of the draft. Between this pick and their #4 pick overall of tight end, Baltimore would feel much better about their skill position group going into the next season.
R1 Pick 12: Chicago - MIN LB Wälter Gunther @KenitohMenara
Chicago's needs are at wide receiver and the defensive line, but they'd have to reach pretty far to take a wide receiver over the best available linebacker, who might do well to keep Chicago fresh at the position.
R1 Pick 13: Arizona - BBB LB Money Tolliver @jeffie43
I think Arizona would love to trade out of this spot, as they are not in great need of a running back or tight end. They don't mind a linebacker but also might not be actively seeking them out, either.
R1 Pick 14: Honolulu - MIN DT Sir Tywrell Xah’Aawrone @Rabidsponge21
For the final pick of the first round Honolulu should love to take even more defensive line talent, especially a defensive tackle. Between their two picks that sandwich the first round, Honolulu would be much more comfortable with their defensive line going into the next season.
Okay, that's all I've got for now. I wouldn't be especially surprised to be entirely off-base here, so I guess I'll just have to wait and see what happens. Best of luck to everyone in the draft, and thank you for reading.
LINK TO THE SPREADSHEET