Task 3: ISFL Predictions
I think we'll see Arizona's dominance in the league finally end as Wendell Sailor is deep into regression. He's now at 700 roughly, and while the team is both made to insulate that issue through great running backs and 5 1000 TPE defensive players, I think it will be something that is too much to overcome. My prediction furthermore is that Austin will win the ASFC and get the bye through a great defense and having max TPE players at QB, WR1, WR2, EDGE, and CB. I still think Arizona will make the playoffs, and will likely have home field advantage in a Wild Card game due to what I said earlier in their roster being able to hide Wendell's regression. That defense was so dominant in Season 40 with only allowing 15.6 points per game and the least yards per game. To put it another way; if Arizona only scored 20 points each game, they would have still gone 13-2-1 and hold the top record in the league by a gigantic margin. What's more interesting is how the rest of the ASFC shakes out. I think the easy answer for who ends last is New York again due to a rookie quarterback who's currently below 700 TPE to start the season. Unlike Arizona, their defense is not up to snuff to hide this deficiency. While New York does have a good secondary with 1K TPE players in Dax, Bonzi, and Regina, a remainder of the defense are either too young or not earning. Their defensive line for example has a Season 40 player at 410 TPE as the highest earning player. The rest include a Season 41 rookie, an inactive Season 32 player, and a Season 36 player who has been mostly inactive save for two activity checks between December and April. Honolulu has interesting pieces but their defense outside of two players are Season 39 and later. Even with a top flight offense with Nova, Perez, and Br00ker, that holds them back too much. The last two are New Orleans and Orange County. TPE wise it would be a slam dunk for New Orleans but it seems that the sim hates New Orleans too much for that to happen. Orange County on paid for the services for Adrian St. Christmas for the next two seasons who should be a better passer than Shinomiya (who is still here apparently), but that defense is still too raw excluding some pieces in the secondary.
The NSFC is interesting as well. Yellowknife is the logical choice to win the Conference but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion (it wasn't even that last season as they won via tiebreaker.) Their elite defense from the past three seasons is well into regression, and has the chance to be supplanted as even last season their pass defense was league average. The offense is at it's peak with two max earning Season 35 running backs and a 1K TPE QB throwing to Calvin Spiff and only him. I think Cape Town will be the other expected playoff team with a high earning defense, a 1K TPE QB, and the reigning MVP in Jarvis. The only reservation I'd have would be their receiver core with two decent 800 TPE guys but a 400 TPE at WR3. It's decent but the other playoff teams have much better pass catchers. The 3rd place spot is a mess with Chicago likely falling off a cliff since Adrian leaving, and a defense that is a mix of young guys, regressing guys, and inactive players, maybe a player like Quendyn who is max earning thrown in. I would like to say my team Berlin but based on the last four seasons where our best defense was Season 37 with a bunch of rookies and sophomore was our best performing defense and has regressed each season since despite increasing TPE. Now we have 6 players over 900 TPE, 3 of us over 1K, along with an active running back for once. The receiving core regressed due to Zayne's regression and Perez being gone however. I think Baltimore is too young to compete (if the sim cooperates) and will be at their peak in the next season or two. Colorado finally has a good defensive line with 2 1Ks, along with another pair of 1Ks in the secondary, but the rest looks too
I think we'll see Arizona's dominance in the league finally end as Wendell Sailor is deep into regression. He's now at 700 roughly, and while the team is both made to insulate that issue through great running backs and 5 1000 TPE defensive players, I think it will be something that is too much to overcome. My prediction furthermore is that Austin will win the ASFC and get the bye through a great defense and having max TPE players at QB, WR1, WR2, EDGE, and CB. I still think Arizona will make the playoffs, and will likely have home field advantage in a Wild Card game due to what I said earlier in their roster being able to hide Wendell's regression. That defense was so dominant in Season 40 with only allowing 15.6 points per game and the least yards per game. To put it another way; if Arizona only scored 20 points each game, they would have still gone 13-2-1 and hold the top record in the league by a gigantic margin. What's more interesting is how the rest of the ASFC shakes out. I think the easy answer for who ends last is New York again due to a rookie quarterback who's currently below 700 TPE to start the season. Unlike Arizona, their defense is not up to snuff to hide this deficiency. While New York does have a good secondary with 1K TPE players in Dax, Bonzi, and Regina, a remainder of the defense are either too young or not earning. Their defensive line for example has a Season 40 player at 410 TPE as the highest earning player. The rest include a Season 41 rookie, an inactive Season 32 player, and a Season 36 player who has been mostly inactive save for two activity checks between December and April. Honolulu has interesting pieces but their defense outside of two players are Season 39 and later. Even with a top flight offense with Nova, Perez, and Br00ker, that holds them back too much. The last two are New Orleans and Orange County. TPE wise it would be a slam dunk for New Orleans but it seems that the sim hates New Orleans too much for that to happen. Orange County on paid for the services for Adrian St. Christmas for the next two seasons who should be a better passer than Shinomiya (who is still here apparently), but that defense is still too raw excluding some pieces in the secondary.
The NSFC is interesting as well. Yellowknife is the logical choice to win the Conference but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion (it wasn't even that last season as they won via tiebreaker.) Their elite defense from the past three seasons is well into regression, and has the chance to be supplanted as even last season their pass defense was league average. The offense is at it's peak with two max earning Season 35 running backs and a 1K TPE QB throwing to Calvin Spiff and only him. I think Cape Town will be the other expected playoff team with a high earning defense, a 1K TPE QB, and the reigning MVP in Jarvis. The only reservation I'd have would be their receiver core with two decent 800 TPE guys but a 400 TPE at WR3. It's decent but the other playoff teams have much better pass catchers. The 3rd place spot is a mess with Chicago likely falling off a cliff since Adrian leaving, and a defense that is a mix of young guys, regressing guys, and inactive players, maybe a player like Quendyn who is max earning thrown in. I would like to say my team Berlin but based on the last four seasons where our best defense was Season 37 with a bunch of rookies and sophomore was our best performing defense and has regressed each season since despite increasing TPE. Now we have 6 players over 900 TPE, 3 of us over 1K, along with an active running back for once. The receiving core regressed due to Zayne's regression and Perez being gone however. I think Baltimore is too young to compete (if the sim cooperates) and will be at their peak in the next season or two. Colorado finally has a good defensive line with 2 1Ks, along with another pair of 1Ks in the secondary, but the rest looks too