04-16-2023, 10:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-21-2023, 11:18 AM by xenosthelegend. Edited 3 times in total.)
Quick hitter explanation: I took the total TPE of each position on each team compared to what in my personal opinion is the TPE I would expect to see at a given position for a Ultimus-winning team. I then took an average player at each position, which ended up being 8 points, and compared the team to that. I then predicted the record for each team based on their scores compared to their opponents. There are some intangibles for each team that raw score doesn't cover, hence the article. An average offense will have 72 points on offense, 94 points on defense, and 24 points on special teams. I calculated special teams with a .25 weight, offense with a 1.15 weight, and defense with a 1.05 weight.
**DISCLAIMER: I ONLY ACCOUNTED FOR RAW TPE PLACEMENT AND BUILD QUALITY FOR THIS UPCOMING SEASON. THIS ARTICLE DOES NOT AIM TO PREDICT FUTURE SEASONS. YOUNG REBUILDING TEAMS WILL NOT BE GOOD IN THIS METRIC - IT IS NOT A SIGN OF FUTURE SEASONS' SQUADS.**
**DISCLAIMER: I ONLY ACCOUNTED FOR RAW TPE PLACEMENT AND BUILD QUALITY FOR THIS UPCOMING SEASON. THIS ARTICLE DOES NOT AIM TO PREDICT FUTURE SEASONS. YOUNG REBUILDING TEAMS WILL NOT BE GOOD IN THIS METRIC - IT IS NOT A SIGN OF FUTURE SEASONS' SQUADS.**
ASFC
Arizona Outlaws
Offense Score: 81/72 (113%)
Defense Score: 90/96 (94%)
ST Score: 34/24 (142%)
Overall Score: 102.16% (3rd)
Writeup:
The perennial contenders will still be contenders this season. They still have a very strong squad and are perpetual favorites to win the ASFC, except this year. Their offense is the 3rd best in the ASFC, 5th best in the league according to the raw numbers, but that is heavily skewed by my QB calculation. Wendell Sailor is entering what is almost certainly his final season as the Outlaw QB, and he's entering it with a build that scares me a little too much. It is certainly true that lower TPE QBs are able to succeed much more often than in previous iterations of the sim, and having both two good WR and two good RB will certainly help with that. The lack of TE concerns me a bit but AZ seems to be perfectly content without one, and given their track record I am inclined to trust them on that front.
On defense, the squad ranks 7th, but I wouldn't read too much into that. The placement of their TPE is really quite good and my raw data system doesn't quite encapsulate everything perfectly. AZ has two safeties that are directly where I'd want them, two corners a bit higher, a DT well over the mark, and an excellent corps of linebackers. The only true missing piece on that defense is the presence of a solid DE, and really 490 and 385 could be a lot worse for the bookends of the defensive line. On special teams, they have a myriad of choices for PR and KR, but their kicker is the 200 TPE JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ. 200 TPE is of course widely considered to be accepted as a kicker, but given the power of the squad I think that it could potentially cause some issues in close games.
One move that I think Arizona could make would be to trade for DE Xavier Valorian from Chicago. It would provide an upgrade of 400 TPE along that defensive line, and while Xave is no longer active, is a wonderful individual who would be worth the locker room presence he brings when he can be there. It would bump Arizona's defense score from 94% to 103% and overall score to 107.68%, which would be enough to jump into 2nd in overall rankings.
Austin Copperheads
Offense Score: 92/72 (128%)
Defense Score: 111/96 (116%)
ST Score: 31/24 (129%)
Overall Score: 119.84% (1st)
Writeup:
On offense, the Copperheads are nearly exactly where I would expect a Ultimus squad to be at. WR1 is on the mark, QB is on the mark, TE is above, OL are above, WR2 is above. WR3 is below, but that negative is largely negated by the strength at TE. Austin's major worry to me is RB. They do have a solid RBBC option, which is a bit assuring, but 682 is a few hundred below what I'd want to be running out if I wanted this team to be a Ultimus shoe-in. At the end of the day a more careful passing offense should be plenty to carry this team to the playoffs, with the help of the defense.
Speaking of defense, the Copperheads boast one of the top-3 cornerback duos in the league. Behind them are two safeties that are each just a hair under what would be ideal but certainly serviceable. Up front, Austin outdoes my expectations for all DL positions, which will help both with sacks and with run support - which is huge considering that the LB corps is currently the weakness of the team. It's a solid young core, but with 855, 829, and 707, there isn't really a player that stands out above the crowd. 855 does have regression seasons all in him so should be okay, but it is the only red flag on the defense.
One move I think Austin could make would be to trade for LB Carissa van Campen from New Orleans. NOLA needs the draft capital and Austin has an extra first round pick in the upcoming draft. Upgrading that LB corps would be a temporary thing, as Austin does still need a 3rd long-term option, but in the short term van Campen is a plug and play backer that would up the defense score, already 2nd in the league, to 129%, and bump them to a 126.95% total.
Honolulu Hahalua
Offense Score: 95/72 (132%)
Defense Score: 56/96 (58%)
ST Score: 28/24 (117%)
Overall Score: 91.17% (8th)
Writeup:
Honolulu is an offensive powerhouse who is relying on the strat of "they can't score as much as we can!" Boasting the top offense in the league with a skill position core that I'm not sure I've seen recently in which every single player can produce and produce well, this is a team that is going to score an absolute fuck ton of points and have fun doing it. The only subtractor to the offense is the lack of a human offensive lineman at LT, which could create some issues down the line but also might not.
Defense, however, is a different story. Honolulu has the 1st ranked offense and the 14th ranked defense (by a long shot). Honolulu does not have a single player that meets my "ideal" TPE level on defense outside of their nickelback and 4th LB. That's not to say that they're going to be horrendous by any means - the oldest player on that defense is S34, and both S34 players are IA or barely active - and has 10 solid active earning S38 or after players. It's a young defense, but it's got a lot of promise in the upcoming seasons. This won't be the season for Honolulu though, I don't think. This defense needs another season to mature.
One move that I think Honolulu could make would be to trade for S Chim Rickles from NOLA. Rickles is in regression, but has enough TPE to make a big difference at the back end and is a 700 TPE upgrade, allowing a 200 TPE upgrade at the other safety position. Adding Rickles may be enough to boost Honolulu into a playoff spot if everything falls their way and if it ends up being the right price. Their defense score would go to 74%, and up their overall score to 99.38%.
New Orleans Second Line
Offense Score: 52/72 (72%)
Defense Score: 99/96 (103%)
ST Score: 33/24 (138%)
Overall Score: 89.58% (10th)
Writeup:
This is the first team where there's really a noticable difference from what the score tells me and what my eyes tell me. NOLA is going to be the 3rd-worst offense in the league by the numbers. They have the worst starting RB in the league by a decently large margin, and while Elessar Jones is still in his prime, his only two weapons are around 900 TPE each at the two WR spots. That's good for WR2, but at WR1 that's gonna cause some options, and with the lack of a run game and lack of a TE, I think it will cause Jones to struggle a lot. It is also worth noting that NOLA has 23 points from offensive linemen alone, which is almost half of their total.
On defense, the numbers lie to us a good bit. NOLA has a good defensive line, and a good linebacker core, but it falls apart in the back end. One good corner and a strong FS are the only things supporting the squad, as CB2 and SS are both well below my ideal numbers and will give up a ton of points. They'll be able to stop the run decently well, but won't be able to stop the pass and won't be able to score. NOLA fans should settle in for a long season.
One move that I think New Orleans can make is to rebuild. They have the oldest roster in the league and it's not particularly close. Their high TPE players could be traded for massive draft capital, especially to NSFC squads, and to keep them really won't help them make the playoffs with their weakness on offense. I'd trade Chim Rickles, Carissa van Campen, Charles Chapman, JR Frankenstero, and Ganyu, and I'd field calls on just about any other player on my team too. There just isn't a lot to work with here and selling off the team will help kickstart the rebuild that's only a season off anyways.
New York Silverbacks
Offense Score: 71/72 (99%)
Defense Score: 94/96 (98%)
ST Score: 33/24 (138%)
Overall Score: 98.23% (5th)
Writeup:
New York is in an interesting situation. They have a very young QB whose build is not quite where I'd like to see it and is a build that is very prone to sacks, and they are badly in need of an upgrade at WR3 and TE. But their RB, WR1, and WR2 are an electric group that should combine very nicely to help carry Blaine Falco through this first season at the helm. Two solid yet not outstanding pieces at OL complete the offensive side of the group. It's a halfway there, halfway not group that has promise but will need some help.
On defense, the Silverbacks have a quietly strong squad. Their defensive line is in desperate need of a jolt, with all 3 DL barely combining for 1000 TPE, but their linebacker corps is very solid and is pretty much exactly to my parameters. Past that, two very strong cornerbacks are backed up by the highest TPE safety in the league and a 400 TPE counterpart at SS. 400 is fine at SS, to be clear, but the NB is another weak point as less than 300 TPE fills that slot.
One move I think New York should make is to trade for TE Walter McKinley from Chicago. You could also make an argument that DL is a need, but with the strengths on the rest of the defense, I think the move is to upgrade the offense and fill one of the two major holes. By making this move, New York's offense score would go up to 111%, and their overall score to 103.62%.
Orange County Otters
Offense Score: 74/72 (103%)
Defense Score: 76/94 (79%)
ST Score: 36/24 (150%)
Overall Score: 90.57% (9th)
Writeup:
Orange County is in an interesting position. Their offense has been built quite well from the group up over the last 3 or so seasons, boasting journeyman QB Adrian St. Christmas while they wait for Lloyd Bannings to be ready to come up. This allowed Smokin Jay to swap to safety and bolster one of the weak points in the defense. At RB, OCO boasts a... fullback. I don't think that a fullback will be able to have the same affect as a running back due to the differences in speed, and so won't break off any big runs, but should get decent chunks of yardage at a time. At WR, OCO has their top threat at 1294 TPE, and the two following sit at 667 and 660. That's not a great WR2 but is perfect for WR3, and with 478 at TE, it's overall an interesting yet solid offense - helped by a 939 human OL as well.
Defense, however, is not good for OCO. The DL is functional but has no stardom, and the linebacker corps is quite frankly bad. One solid LB at nearly 700 is good, but when your 3 backers behind him are all at under 400, it kinda defeats the purpose. At corners, they have 1477 and 585, which is about an equal a difference as night and day. 585 is still active and earning, which is good, but will likely get torched the remainder of the season. Safeties being at 747 and 669 is also very solid, and would be perfect on a stronger defense, but as is won't be able to help beyond their means.
One move that I think Orange County should make is to trade CB Ace McAlister. He is the brightest spot on this young and budding defense that is going to have the worst season of it's career this season, but he is also regressing and fits the squad's window in the opposite direction. By trading McAlister, OCO's score would drop on all sides, but they would also get at the very least (imo) first and second round picks or perhaps younger prospects.
San Jose Sabercats
Offense Score: 58/72 (81%)
Defense Score: 83/96 (86%)
ST Score: 43/24 (179%)
Overall Score: 85.73% (11th)
Writeup:
This just isn't San Jose's season. Although veteran signal caller Owen Farrell is still at the helm and provides a lift to all of his receivers, their lack of firepower on offense could prove to be too much of a mantle to hurdle. 519 TPE is the RB spot, which is about half of what I'd say is ideal, and while WR1 is 1298, WR2 drops down to 613, and WR3 is 275. TE also sits at 288, and combining that with an offensive lineman under 200 TPE, I think it's reasonable to say that San Jose's offense needs some serious work or development.
On defense, SJS kinda gets a little bit screwed by my system, as they are better than the TPE number gives them credit for. I would say that closer to 95% is where I'd put them on the eye test, though there's certainly holes. 959 at DT is an excellent start, though hampered by 558 and 497 at the DE positions - solid but nothing outstanding. LBs sit at 745, 600, and 513, which is not awful but needs to be better if they want to have a lot of success on the season. In the secondary, they will likely be forced to play safety at corner due to the 600 TPE difference between their best safety and best corner, which means that their corners will essentially be 1000 and 600 TPE once you consider the penalty for playing out of position. 552 at SS is quite fine however, and 410 at NB is shaky but effective.
One move I think that SJS should make is to stay the course. Right now, they are mid-way through a re-tool, and one or two free agents could make or break the team. Trading for a LB or WR or TE is not going to be enough to set SJS on the path to the playoffs, unfortunately, and tearing down would be foolish with the amount of youth still on the team. So, I think keeping on doing what they're already doing is their best option.
ASFC STANDINGS PREDICTION
1. Austin Copperheads: 14-2
2. Arizona Outlaws: 12-4
3. New York Silverbacks: 10-6
4. Honolulu Hahalua: 8-8
5. San Jose Sabercats: 6-10
6. Orange County Otters: 4-12
7. New Orleans Second Line: 3-13
These standings are merely a guess at how things will shake out across the course of the season. You can see exact wins and losses in the spreadsheet linked above. I will also freely admit that I probably am too ambitious with some of these predictions, and I do expect each team to finish plus or minus one/two wins as what I have stated here. I don't think they'll be perfect by any means.
NSFC edition will be coming out within an hour or two (maybe the morning if I get too tired) but it's 10 minutes til double media ends and I'd like to take advantage of that with at least half of the article.
As for my 500 words about niceness to the league, I want to thank each of you for the kind words and congratulations that were given to me not only on my "retirement" post when I stepped away from league employment, but for the congratulations and kind words that were sent my way upon my induction to the User Hall of Fame this past week. The work and hours that I have poured into this league were frankly far too many, but they were poured in out of a love and sense of responsibility for the league. I do not have much of a social life, as you can tell by the data collection process of this article which has taken me 6 hours today to get to this point, but I consider many of the league members friends, and I don't use that word lightly. I would love to get to meet more of the community irl, especially after meeting Mith and Seb in Cincy last year, and hope to one day be able to make that happen. I love that the league allows all of us from incredibly vast backgrounds to all come together and do something that we all enjoy, and even though there is sometimes insane drama that goes on in the league, and leagues surrounding, that drama does at the end of the day always result in more activity and more people being drawn closer together. There are some times that league members don't get along as well, of course, but in our big family some occasional infighting can only be expected, tolerated, and squashed if it gets out of hand.
I also want to take a moment to thank Head Office in general, as a lot of the time I feel that they are suffering from a stained public perception that has nothing to do with their own actions. In HO, I had a lot of fun and enjoyed almost all of my time there. However there were times when I felt that the mistakes made by previous members of Head Office were being held against me personally and there wasn't anything that I could do about it. So I would ask that each member of the league step back, consider what, if any, your issues with HO are, and decide whether or not it is fair to continue to hold those things against our current head office, or if it is unfair. And if it is something with the current head office, please take a moment to consider if it is something that you can bring up to a head office member and see if there is anything that HO can do about the issue. HO is always willing to consider all things, and while they might not always agree with your side of the situation, they do always discuss at length and are willing to reconsider things as well in the light of new evidences.
To close, from the bottom of my heart, thank you, ISFL.
Arizona Outlaws
Offense Score: 81/72 (113%)
Defense Score: 90/96 (94%)
ST Score: 34/24 (142%)
Overall Score: 102.16% (3rd)
Writeup:
The perennial contenders will still be contenders this season. They still have a very strong squad and are perpetual favorites to win the ASFC, except this year. Their offense is the 3rd best in the ASFC, 5th best in the league according to the raw numbers, but that is heavily skewed by my QB calculation. Wendell Sailor is entering what is almost certainly his final season as the Outlaw QB, and he's entering it with a build that scares me a little too much. It is certainly true that lower TPE QBs are able to succeed much more often than in previous iterations of the sim, and having both two good WR and two good RB will certainly help with that. The lack of TE concerns me a bit but AZ seems to be perfectly content without one, and given their track record I am inclined to trust them on that front.
On defense, the squad ranks 7th, but I wouldn't read too much into that. The placement of their TPE is really quite good and my raw data system doesn't quite encapsulate everything perfectly. AZ has two safeties that are directly where I'd want them, two corners a bit higher, a DT well over the mark, and an excellent corps of linebackers. The only true missing piece on that defense is the presence of a solid DE, and really 490 and 385 could be a lot worse for the bookends of the defensive line. On special teams, they have a myriad of choices for PR and KR, but their kicker is the 200 TPE JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ. 200 TPE is of course widely considered to be accepted as a kicker, but given the power of the squad I think that it could potentially cause some issues in close games.
One move that I think Arizona could make would be to trade for DE Xavier Valorian from Chicago. It would provide an upgrade of 400 TPE along that defensive line, and while Xave is no longer active, is a wonderful individual who would be worth the locker room presence he brings when he can be there. It would bump Arizona's defense score from 94% to 103% and overall score to 107.68%, which would be enough to jump into 2nd in overall rankings.
Austin Copperheads
Offense Score: 92/72 (128%)
Defense Score: 111/96 (116%)
ST Score: 31/24 (129%)
Overall Score: 119.84% (1st)
Writeup:
On offense, the Copperheads are nearly exactly where I would expect a Ultimus squad to be at. WR1 is on the mark, QB is on the mark, TE is above, OL are above, WR2 is above. WR3 is below, but that negative is largely negated by the strength at TE. Austin's major worry to me is RB. They do have a solid RBBC option, which is a bit assuring, but 682 is a few hundred below what I'd want to be running out if I wanted this team to be a Ultimus shoe-in. At the end of the day a more careful passing offense should be plenty to carry this team to the playoffs, with the help of the defense.
Speaking of defense, the Copperheads boast one of the top-3 cornerback duos in the league. Behind them are two safeties that are each just a hair under what would be ideal but certainly serviceable. Up front, Austin outdoes my expectations for all DL positions, which will help both with sacks and with run support - which is huge considering that the LB corps is currently the weakness of the team. It's a solid young core, but with 855, 829, and 707, there isn't really a player that stands out above the crowd. 855 does have regression seasons all in him so should be okay, but it is the only red flag on the defense.
One move I think Austin could make would be to trade for LB Carissa van Campen from New Orleans. NOLA needs the draft capital and Austin has an extra first round pick in the upcoming draft. Upgrading that LB corps would be a temporary thing, as Austin does still need a 3rd long-term option, but in the short term van Campen is a plug and play backer that would up the defense score, already 2nd in the league, to 129%, and bump them to a 126.95% total.
Honolulu Hahalua
Offense Score: 95/72 (132%)
Defense Score: 56/96 (58%)
ST Score: 28/24 (117%)
Overall Score: 91.17% (8th)
Writeup:
Honolulu is an offensive powerhouse who is relying on the strat of "they can't score as much as we can!" Boasting the top offense in the league with a skill position core that I'm not sure I've seen recently in which every single player can produce and produce well, this is a team that is going to score an absolute fuck ton of points and have fun doing it. The only subtractor to the offense is the lack of a human offensive lineman at LT, which could create some issues down the line but also might not.
Defense, however, is a different story. Honolulu has the 1st ranked offense and the 14th ranked defense (by a long shot). Honolulu does not have a single player that meets my "ideal" TPE level on defense outside of their nickelback and 4th LB. That's not to say that they're going to be horrendous by any means - the oldest player on that defense is S34, and both S34 players are IA or barely active - and has 10 solid active earning S38 or after players. It's a young defense, but it's got a lot of promise in the upcoming seasons. This won't be the season for Honolulu though, I don't think. This defense needs another season to mature.
One move that I think Honolulu could make would be to trade for S Chim Rickles from NOLA. Rickles is in regression, but has enough TPE to make a big difference at the back end and is a 700 TPE upgrade, allowing a 200 TPE upgrade at the other safety position. Adding Rickles may be enough to boost Honolulu into a playoff spot if everything falls their way and if it ends up being the right price. Their defense score would go to 74%, and up their overall score to 99.38%.
New Orleans Second Line
Offense Score: 52/72 (72%)
Defense Score: 99/96 (103%)
ST Score: 33/24 (138%)
Overall Score: 89.58% (10th)
Writeup:
This is the first team where there's really a noticable difference from what the score tells me and what my eyes tell me. NOLA is going to be the 3rd-worst offense in the league by the numbers. They have the worst starting RB in the league by a decently large margin, and while Elessar Jones is still in his prime, his only two weapons are around 900 TPE each at the two WR spots. That's good for WR2, but at WR1 that's gonna cause some options, and with the lack of a run game and lack of a TE, I think it will cause Jones to struggle a lot. It is also worth noting that NOLA has 23 points from offensive linemen alone, which is almost half of their total.
On defense, the numbers lie to us a good bit. NOLA has a good defensive line, and a good linebacker core, but it falls apart in the back end. One good corner and a strong FS are the only things supporting the squad, as CB2 and SS are both well below my ideal numbers and will give up a ton of points. They'll be able to stop the run decently well, but won't be able to stop the pass and won't be able to score. NOLA fans should settle in for a long season.
One move that I think New Orleans can make is to rebuild. They have the oldest roster in the league and it's not particularly close. Their high TPE players could be traded for massive draft capital, especially to NSFC squads, and to keep them really won't help them make the playoffs with their weakness on offense. I'd trade Chim Rickles, Carissa van Campen, Charles Chapman, JR Frankenstero, and Ganyu, and I'd field calls on just about any other player on my team too. There just isn't a lot to work with here and selling off the team will help kickstart the rebuild that's only a season off anyways.
New York Silverbacks
Offense Score: 71/72 (99%)
Defense Score: 94/96 (98%)
ST Score: 33/24 (138%)
Overall Score: 98.23% (5th)
Writeup:
New York is in an interesting situation. They have a very young QB whose build is not quite where I'd like to see it and is a build that is very prone to sacks, and they are badly in need of an upgrade at WR3 and TE. But their RB, WR1, and WR2 are an electric group that should combine very nicely to help carry Blaine Falco through this first season at the helm. Two solid yet not outstanding pieces at OL complete the offensive side of the group. It's a halfway there, halfway not group that has promise but will need some help.
On defense, the Silverbacks have a quietly strong squad. Their defensive line is in desperate need of a jolt, with all 3 DL barely combining for 1000 TPE, but their linebacker corps is very solid and is pretty much exactly to my parameters. Past that, two very strong cornerbacks are backed up by the highest TPE safety in the league and a 400 TPE counterpart at SS. 400 is fine at SS, to be clear, but the NB is another weak point as less than 300 TPE fills that slot.
One move I think New York should make is to trade for TE Walter McKinley from Chicago. You could also make an argument that DL is a need, but with the strengths on the rest of the defense, I think the move is to upgrade the offense and fill one of the two major holes. By making this move, New York's offense score would go up to 111%, and their overall score to 103.62%.
Orange County Otters
Offense Score: 74/72 (103%)
Defense Score: 76/94 (79%)
ST Score: 36/24 (150%)
Overall Score: 90.57% (9th)
Writeup:
Orange County is in an interesting position. Their offense has been built quite well from the group up over the last 3 or so seasons, boasting journeyman QB Adrian St. Christmas while they wait for Lloyd Bannings to be ready to come up. This allowed Smokin Jay to swap to safety and bolster one of the weak points in the defense. At RB, OCO boasts a... fullback. I don't think that a fullback will be able to have the same affect as a running back due to the differences in speed, and so won't break off any big runs, but should get decent chunks of yardage at a time. At WR, OCO has their top threat at 1294 TPE, and the two following sit at 667 and 660. That's not a great WR2 but is perfect for WR3, and with 478 at TE, it's overall an interesting yet solid offense - helped by a 939 human OL as well.
Defense, however, is not good for OCO. The DL is functional but has no stardom, and the linebacker corps is quite frankly bad. One solid LB at nearly 700 is good, but when your 3 backers behind him are all at under 400, it kinda defeats the purpose. At corners, they have 1477 and 585, which is about an equal a difference as night and day. 585 is still active and earning, which is good, but will likely get torched the remainder of the season. Safeties being at 747 and 669 is also very solid, and would be perfect on a stronger defense, but as is won't be able to help beyond their means.
One move that I think Orange County should make is to trade CB Ace McAlister. He is the brightest spot on this young and budding defense that is going to have the worst season of it's career this season, but he is also regressing and fits the squad's window in the opposite direction. By trading McAlister, OCO's score would drop on all sides, but they would also get at the very least (imo) first and second round picks or perhaps younger prospects.
San Jose Sabercats
Offense Score: 58/72 (81%)
Defense Score: 83/96 (86%)
ST Score: 43/24 (179%)
Overall Score: 85.73% (11th)
Writeup:
This just isn't San Jose's season. Although veteran signal caller Owen Farrell is still at the helm and provides a lift to all of his receivers, their lack of firepower on offense could prove to be too much of a mantle to hurdle. 519 TPE is the RB spot, which is about half of what I'd say is ideal, and while WR1 is 1298, WR2 drops down to 613, and WR3 is 275. TE also sits at 288, and combining that with an offensive lineman under 200 TPE, I think it's reasonable to say that San Jose's offense needs some serious work or development.
On defense, SJS kinda gets a little bit screwed by my system, as they are better than the TPE number gives them credit for. I would say that closer to 95% is where I'd put them on the eye test, though there's certainly holes. 959 at DT is an excellent start, though hampered by 558 and 497 at the DE positions - solid but nothing outstanding. LBs sit at 745, 600, and 513, which is not awful but needs to be better if they want to have a lot of success on the season. In the secondary, they will likely be forced to play safety at corner due to the 600 TPE difference between their best safety and best corner, which means that their corners will essentially be 1000 and 600 TPE once you consider the penalty for playing out of position. 552 at SS is quite fine however, and 410 at NB is shaky but effective.
One move I think that SJS should make is to stay the course. Right now, they are mid-way through a re-tool, and one or two free agents could make or break the team. Trading for a LB or WR or TE is not going to be enough to set SJS on the path to the playoffs, unfortunately, and tearing down would be foolish with the amount of youth still on the team. So, I think keeping on doing what they're already doing is their best option.
ASFC STANDINGS PREDICTION
1. Austin Copperheads: 14-2
2. Arizona Outlaws: 12-4
3. New York Silverbacks: 10-6
4. Honolulu Hahalua: 8-8
5. San Jose Sabercats: 6-10
6. Orange County Otters: 4-12
7. New Orleans Second Line: 3-13
These standings are merely a guess at how things will shake out across the course of the season. You can see exact wins and losses in the spreadsheet linked above. I will also freely admit that I probably am too ambitious with some of these predictions, and I do expect each team to finish plus or minus one/two wins as what I have stated here. I don't think they'll be perfect by any means.
NSFC edition will be coming out within an hour or two (maybe the morning if I get too tired) but it's 10 minutes til double media ends and I'd like to take advantage of that with at least half of the article.
As for my 500 words about niceness to the league, I want to thank each of you for the kind words and congratulations that were given to me not only on my "retirement" post when I stepped away from league employment, but for the congratulations and kind words that were sent my way upon my induction to the User Hall of Fame this past week. The work and hours that I have poured into this league were frankly far too many, but they were poured in out of a love and sense of responsibility for the league. I do not have much of a social life, as you can tell by the data collection process of this article which has taken me 6 hours today to get to this point, but I consider many of the league members friends, and I don't use that word lightly. I would love to get to meet more of the community irl, especially after meeting Mith and Seb in Cincy last year, and hope to one day be able to make that happen. I love that the league allows all of us from incredibly vast backgrounds to all come together and do something that we all enjoy, and even though there is sometimes insane drama that goes on in the league, and leagues surrounding, that drama does at the end of the day always result in more activity and more people being drawn closer together. There are some times that league members don't get along as well, of course, but in our big family some occasional infighting can only be expected, tolerated, and squashed if it gets out of hand.
I also want to take a moment to thank Head Office in general, as a lot of the time I feel that they are suffering from a stained public perception that has nothing to do with their own actions. In HO, I had a lot of fun and enjoyed almost all of my time there. However there were times when I felt that the mistakes made by previous members of Head Office were being held against me personally and there wasn't anything that I could do about it. So I would ask that each member of the league step back, consider what, if any, your issues with HO are, and decide whether or not it is fair to continue to hold those things against our current head office, or if it is unfair. And if it is something with the current head office, please take a moment to consider if it is something that you can bring up to a head office member and see if there is anything that HO can do about the issue. HO is always willing to consider all things, and while they might not always agree with your side of the situation, they do always discuss at length and are willing to reconsider things as well in the light of new evidences.
To close, from the bottom of my heart, thank you, ISFL.