05-03-2023, 12:50 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-08-2023, 10:29 AM by xenosthelegend. Edited 1 time in total.)
Wow what an exciting week of games. We saw the unfortunate end of HON’s lossless streak getting toppled by the overwhelming offense of BAL. Additionally, SAR took down OCO, I don’t know about you, but I did not see that coming. Despite these two upsets my weekly predictions came back 5/7 so even if I am losing money at least I am netting some sweet, sweet TPE. Immediately following the games my dumbass thought that I won 4/6 prop bets which would have netted me $600k, mixing up my position on the Khali line. That high was quickly crushed by Cr0ney, my bank’s arch nemesis at this point. Let’s take a quick look at my week 8 positions and how that worked out for me.
Blaine Falco (NYS) Completions (19.5) – I took the under on this line given that Mr. Falco had been averaging less than 19 completions per game. Despite NYS only putting up 3 points against CTC Blaine was able to complete 24 of 38 pass attempts. 38 attempts was higher than NYS’ average, so the GMs over there made the conscious effort to come at CTC with a more pass heavy offense. I’ll take this one in stride. GG Falco.
Tyler One (OCO) Rushing Yards (45.5) – Another line I took the under on. Tyler is RB#2 for OCO behind Zane Cold and while being useful in games really hadn’t been putting up that many yards. That is evident by Tyler’s total of 21 yards against SAR. A big portion of this result has to be SARs defense which I didn’t put a whole lot of stock in. SAR managed to hold OCO to only 7 points.
NCADV RAINN (COL) Receiving Yards (75.5) – I took the over on this one correctly thinking the Yeti would go heavy on the pass offense. Unfortunately for me RAINN only held on to 5/9 pass targets totaling 51 yards. This one still feels like it could have gone either way. With a few more targets or a few more catches I firmly believe RAINN would have hit the over on this one. Going forward, though, I am going to put more stock in the depth of the reception chart as it seems the sim does a good job of spreading out the targets.
James Jayne Jay-Jamison (AZ) Missed Kicks (1.5) – I put money on the under knowing that this was a crapshoot from the beginning. Kicking lines have so many different components that any analysis can be proven or debunked imo. Fortunately, JJJJ only missed 1 kick. TY JJJJ.
Great Khali (AUS) Pancakes (3.5) – This damn pick, I was so hype thinking I took the over and he hit 9 pancakes. Finally, a weekly win. Unfortunately, I am dumb and totally missed the fact that I took the UNDER. Oh well you lose some and you lose some.
Liath Squirrel (HON) Tackles (4.5) – My gut said go with HON and my gut was right. Sucks that HON didn’t outright win but at least Liath got 8 tackles and took me to the $900k promised land.
Week 9 Analysis
There are a couple of new prop types in this week’s picks, i.e. touchdowns and kick return average. It is nice to see the casino mix it up so that I take the risk and lose more money. Going into this week I wanted to switch up my strategy. Previously I had bet 1M across the board on each prop, but this week I want to selectively chose 3 to 4 bets and place a bit more on each of them. Hopefully that means the ones that I am most confident hit and I can take my winnings and dig myself out of this massive hole I have dug. I will do a 3 leg parlay though.
Week 9 Props
Nova Montagne (HON) Passing Yards (310.5) UNDER – Hot damn is this a big number. We have seen Nova put up some serious passing yards this season but we have also seen the complete opposite. This season Nova is averaging 290.8 yards per game, coming well under the line. However, these have been totally bipolar performances, although it appears there have only been two total games where she has cracked 311 yards, the two most recent games. This week HON is going up against the Chicago Butchers who have held all of their opponents below 300 passing yards including pass heavy offenses like SAR, COL and BAL. Because of this I am taking the under.
Zane Cold (OCO) Rushing Yards (55.5) OVER – In 3 of OCOs 8 games has Zane not gotten more than 55 yards. Operating as RB#1 for Orange County I would think Zane has plenty of opportunities to crack this line. However OCO is going up against the Yellowknife Wraiths who have been exceptionally strong on the rush defense side of things. Only allowing an RB to break this line a handful of times. Zane is up there with some of the top RBs in the league right now, so I think he has the chance to make it happen. With a little bit of sim luck giving Cold 2 or 3 good runs I see Zane getting 56 yards or more this game. I am going over.
Money Tolliver (BAL) Receiving Yards (25.5) OVER – Tolliver is a great running back but BAL has also been slotting him into receiver and giving him plenty of targets. Currently Tolliver is averaging 49 receiving yards per game, only being deflated by a couple of nights with low completion rates. With BALs heavy passing offense Tolliver is getting plenty of opportunities to take the ball 26 yards. This seems like the easiest pick out of the seven. Going over on this one.
Johnny Blaze Jr. (SAR) Receptions (6.5) UNDER – Johnny hasn’t caught the ball more than 6 times in 6 out of 8n games this season. To be honest my gut feeling is that this is going to be a coinflip. Going up against AZ who should have a good pass defense but has definitely been underperforming this season makes this even more of a toss up. Statistically I think the under is the move on this prop, but I won’t be putting any money on it.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Touchdowns (0.5) UNDER – Cool to see the casino begin branching out this season., sad to see it is with McHollywood. He let me down on his last prop for receiving yards, coming about 30 yards short of the line. Double sucks is this guy is on my fantasy team. So I would hope he can 1 touchdown tonight, but let’s see what the stats say. McHollywood has 6 TDs over 8 games, so the average is already against us. Additionally, NYS is up against Berlin the certified top defense in the league. More so, NYS put up only 3 points last game against CTC so momentum isn’t on their side either. Because of the fickle nature of 1 TD I won’t be putting money on this one, but I am saying this will be an under.
Solace Avenger (NOLA) Tackles (8.5) OVER – Defensive lines are so tricky seems. NOLA is generally trash, especially after trading away their whole team so their opponents get to make a lot of plays, so I’d think that Solace would have the opportunity to make a lot of tackles. Currently Mr. Avenger is averaging 10 tackles a game so the over seems like a great opportunity. COL is NOLAs opponent this week and has a pass heavy offense. Though Solace appears to keep up his tackle numbers despite which style of offense NOLA is up against. As much as I think defensive lines are a trap, I am going over on this one and putting money on it.
Delores Bickerman (AUS) Kick Return Average (23.5) UNDER – What. This one is really out there. What a stat to keep track of. This season Bickerman is averaging 27.4 yards per return over a total of 12 returns with the largest being 42 yards. AUS is going up against CTC this week which is a strong team that would present a lot of opportunities for kick returns. The more kicks returned the harder it is to maintain a higher average. Because of that I am going under on this one.
Below is a summary of this weeks bets.
Hopefully this week will be the week where I strike it rich!
Total Wagered: $29,000,000 ($7,000,000 Pending Week 9)
Total Profit: -$4,900,000
Blaine Falco (NYS) Completions (19.5) – I took the under on this line given that Mr. Falco had been averaging less than 19 completions per game. Despite NYS only putting up 3 points against CTC Blaine was able to complete 24 of 38 pass attempts. 38 attempts was higher than NYS’ average, so the GMs over there made the conscious effort to come at CTC with a more pass heavy offense. I’ll take this one in stride. GG Falco.
Tyler One (OCO) Rushing Yards (45.5) – Another line I took the under on. Tyler is RB#2 for OCO behind Zane Cold and while being useful in games really hadn’t been putting up that many yards. That is evident by Tyler’s total of 21 yards against SAR. A big portion of this result has to be SARs defense which I didn’t put a whole lot of stock in. SAR managed to hold OCO to only 7 points.
NCADV RAINN (COL) Receiving Yards (75.5) – I took the over on this one correctly thinking the Yeti would go heavy on the pass offense. Unfortunately for me RAINN only held on to 5/9 pass targets totaling 51 yards. This one still feels like it could have gone either way. With a few more targets or a few more catches I firmly believe RAINN would have hit the over on this one. Going forward, though, I am going to put more stock in the depth of the reception chart as it seems the sim does a good job of spreading out the targets.
James Jayne Jay-Jamison (AZ) Missed Kicks (1.5) – I put money on the under knowing that this was a crapshoot from the beginning. Kicking lines have so many different components that any analysis can be proven or debunked imo. Fortunately, JJJJ only missed 1 kick. TY JJJJ.
Great Khali (AUS) Pancakes (3.5) – This damn pick, I was so hype thinking I took the over and he hit 9 pancakes. Finally, a weekly win. Unfortunately, I am dumb and totally missed the fact that I took the UNDER. Oh well you lose some and you lose some.
Liath Squirrel (HON) Tackles (4.5) – My gut said go with HON and my gut was right. Sucks that HON didn’t outright win but at least Liath got 8 tackles and took me to the $900k promised land.
Week 9 Analysis
There are a couple of new prop types in this week’s picks, i.e. touchdowns and kick return average. It is nice to see the casino mix it up so that I take the risk and lose more money. Going into this week I wanted to switch up my strategy. Previously I had bet 1M across the board on each prop, but this week I want to selectively chose 3 to 4 bets and place a bit more on each of them. Hopefully that means the ones that I am most confident hit and I can take my winnings and dig myself out of this massive hole I have dug. I will do a 3 leg parlay though.
Week 9 Props
Nova Montagne (HON) Passing Yards (310.5) UNDER – Hot damn is this a big number. We have seen Nova put up some serious passing yards this season but we have also seen the complete opposite. This season Nova is averaging 290.8 yards per game, coming well under the line. However, these have been totally bipolar performances, although it appears there have only been two total games where she has cracked 311 yards, the two most recent games. This week HON is going up against the Chicago Butchers who have held all of their opponents below 300 passing yards including pass heavy offenses like SAR, COL and BAL. Because of this I am taking the under.
Zane Cold (OCO) Rushing Yards (55.5) OVER – In 3 of OCOs 8 games has Zane not gotten more than 55 yards. Operating as RB#1 for Orange County I would think Zane has plenty of opportunities to crack this line. However OCO is going up against the Yellowknife Wraiths who have been exceptionally strong on the rush defense side of things. Only allowing an RB to break this line a handful of times. Zane is up there with some of the top RBs in the league right now, so I think he has the chance to make it happen. With a little bit of sim luck giving Cold 2 or 3 good runs I see Zane getting 56 yards or more this game. I am going over.
Money Tolliver (BAL) Receiving Yards (25.5) OVER – Tolliver is a great running back but BAL has also been slotting him into receiver and giving him plenty of targets. Currently Tolliver is averaging 49 receiving yards per game, only being deflated by a couple of nights with low completion rates. With BALs heavy passing offense Tolliver is getting plenty of opportunities to take the ball 26 yards. This seems like the easiest pick out of the seven. Going over on this one.
Johnny Blaze Jr. (SAR) Receptions (6.5) UNDER – Johnny hasn’t caught the ball more than 6 times in 6 out of 8n games this season. To be honest my gut feeling is that this is going to be a coinflip. Going up against AZ who should have a good pass defense but has definitely been underperforming this season makes this even more of a toss up. Statistically I think the under is the move on this prop, but I won’t be putting any money on it.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Touchdowns (0.5) UNDER – Cool to see the casino begin branching out this season., sad to see it is with McHollywood. He let me down on his last prop for receiving yards, coming about 30 yards short of the line. Double sucks is this guy is on my fantasy team. So I would hope he can 1 touchdown tonight, but let’s see what the stats say. McHollywood has 6 TDs over 8 games, so the average is already against us. Additionally, NYS is up against Berlin the certified top defense in the league. More so, NYS put up only 3 points last game against CTC so momentum isn’t on their side either. Because of the fickle nature of 1 TD I won’t be putting money on this one, but I am saying this will be an under.
Solace Avenger (NOLA) Tackles (8.5) OVER – Defensive lines are so tricky seems. NOLA is generally trash, especially after trading away their whole team so their opponents get to make a lot of plays, so I’d think that Solace would have the opportunity to make a lot of tackles. Currently Mr. Avenger is averaging 10 tackles a game so the over seems like a great opportunity. COL is NOLAs opponent this week and has a pass heavy offense. Though Solace appears to keep up his tackle numbers despite which style of offense NOLA is up against. As much as I think defensive lines are a trap, I am going over on this one and putting money on it.
Delores Bickerman (AUS) Kick Return Average (23.5) UNDER – What. This one is really out there. What a stat to keep track of. This season Bickerman is averaging 27.4 yards per return over a total of 12 returns with the largest being 42 yards. AUS is going up against CTC this week which is a strong team that would present a lot of opportunities for kick returns. The more kicks returned the harder it is to maintain a higher average. Because of that I am going under on this one.
Below is a summary of this weeks bets.
Hopefully this week will be the week where I strike it rich!
Total Wagered: $29,000,000 ($7,000,000 Pending Week 9)
Total Profit: -$4,900,000