05-09-2023, 06:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2023, 09:05 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 2 times in total.)
Welcome back to your last-minute pick tips from me, Ult! I try and badly analyze this week’s prop bets and try and give you an answer based on Advanced Statistics (Looking at Averages) and Expert Opinions (My Gut Feeling). However, before we get into this week's (DSFL!) props, let us look at last week’s prop bets, and how the betting community did.
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1101561647849545879/1105613786586550432/image.png)
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1101561647849545879/1105613809424531586/image.png)
How about that, I’m starting to pick up some steam. 6/7 on Total bets and 3/3 on all bets of the week, I’m starting to feel like I know how to set em up and knock em down. CR0ney finished with the same line as me, with our only differences being how we bet on Lucius Salem and Cedric Wilkins II. Seb is also heating up, as he is 2/2 again, extending his 100% streak to 2 weeks. Lips also did very well, still hitting 5/7 total bets, and went 3/4 on Bets of the week. Our recap starts off with Nova Montagne only throwing 1 touchdown, landing them firmly in the under category. Arizona got stuck in the trenches for running, as the paring of Nedelko and Bluee could only muster up 71 yards.Lucius Salem ate GOOD, and I mean GOOD against chicago. The Sailfish piled on 51 points on the Butchers, and Lucius Salem got himself 8 catches for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns, a statement game for him, and well over the 4.5 for the prop. Cruella de Ville gave me a heart attack by getting over on the prop by the hook, getting 8 tackles in a close one for me. Christian Marciano only had 1 sack/negative play against NOLA, and the weirdest research I had done for the season paid off. Cedric Wilkins II only tallied up 25 return yards on the day, which was well under the line here. For the Berlin/Baltimore game, I predicted correctly that “... this game is going to be dictated by Berlin’s Stout defense, so I’ll take the under.” Both sides only put up a 23 points combined, which was almost half of what the line of 39.5 points put out. Now on to our season recap of the Degens™.
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1101561647849545879/1105613838658842734/image.png)
Everyone is still on the upswing here, as all numbers across the board improve, and everyone's standings from last week is staying as is. CR0ney is still putting up insane numbers, and Seb is on a rocket streak to the highest total bets of the season.
Now let's get onto this week's bets.
……..
……..
*AHEM**AHEM*, THIS WEEKS BETS
……..
BETS?! WHERE ARE THE W11 BETS? WHERE ARE THEY.
…….
……..
Soooooo, they got canceled
W11 Bets of the week
![[Image: Z.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1075671115936059494/1105615126540845197/Z.png)
………
I HAVE BREAKING NEWS, WE ARE HAVING A DSFL W8 PROP DAY!!! PRAISE THE SUN GOD FOR WE ARE SAVED!!!
Donovan Winters III (POR) : Turnovers 1.5 O/U - Under
Donovan Winters III comes in off of a subpar start to his final season in the DSFL, With a total of 8 interceptions and 3 fumbles, which combined gives an average of 1.57 turnovers a game. Portland is facing Minnesota this week, and MINN has forced 8 interceptions and 8 fumbles. It's going to be a close line till the final whistle, but Donovan has had a streak of only 1 INT thrown, I’m very shaky but I'll take the under.
Sailor Moon (NOR) : Rushing Attempts 10.5 O/U - Under
This is a hard bet to quantify, as Attempts are controlled by the playbook and the sim gods, and if Norfolk wins. Whenever Norfolk wins, Sailor Moon always eclipses the 10.5 mark, however 3/4 times they have lost, they have hit under 10.5 attempts, and by a wide margin. More or less a coinflip, Under
Keanu Calhoun (DAL) : Receiving Yards 84.5 O/U - Under
Keanu Calhoun is having a spectacular season so far, averaging 92.1 yards a game. This may be due to Calhoun's insane 91-speed. Calhoun currently out speeds anyone on the Luchadores' defense, making Calhoun a target for any deep bombs. Now Calhoun normally either puts up a 125+ Yard game or a 70 or less yard game. Since by terms of targets Calhoun is going up against Luchadores #1 CB, Synester Gates. Another 50/50, I’ll take it under
Chaos Vert (MINN) : Pass Deflections 1.5 O/U - Under
Chaos Vert puts up 1.857 Pass Deflections a game, and PD is a sim god type of bet. However, when looking at Minnesota's opponent, Portland, Has only allowed 3 players to get more than 2 PD in a game, which tracks when you look at the target distribution for Portland. They Normally target across the board, which should give less opportunity for one CB to rack up targets. Ill take the Under
Bubba Chub (KCC) : Pancakes 4.5 - Over
Pancakes, yipee. Bubba Chubb averages 4.285 Pancakes a game. 4/7 games, they have 4 or fewer pancakes. Augh, I’m doing a coinflip, Heads Over, Tails Under
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1075671115936059494/1105636031136546906/image.png)
Coin Gods have decided
Wing Wang (TIJ) : Kicks Made 5.5 - Over
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1075671115936059494/1105622976050757672/image.png)
That's All I need
Here are this week's bets (I have very little confidence in any of these, dont take this week as advice)
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1101561647849545879/1105637123702390816/image.png)
How about that, I’m starting to pick up some steam. 6/7 on Total bets and 3/3 on all bets of the week, I’m starting to feel like I know how to set em up and knock em down. CR0ney finished with the same line as me, with our only differences being how we bet on Lucius Salem and Cedric Wilkins II. Seb is also heating up, as he is 2/2 again, extending his 100% streak to 2 weeks. Lips also did very well, still hitting 5/7 total bets, and went 3/4 on Bets of the week. Our recap starts off with Nova Montagne only throwing 1 touchdown, landing them firmly in the under category. Arizona got stuck in the trenches for running, as the paring of Nedelko and Bluee could only muster up 71 yards.Lucius Salem ate GOOD, and I mean GOOD against chicago. The Sailfish piled on 51 points on the Butchers, and Lucius Salem got himself 8 catches for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns, a statement game for him, and well over the 4.5 for the prop. Cruella de Ville gave me a heart attack by getting over on the prop by the hook, getting 8 tackles in a close one for me. Christian Marciano only had 1 sack/negative play against NOLA, and the weirdest research I had done for the season paid off. Cedric Wilkins II only tallied up 25 return yards on the day, which was well under the line here. For the Berlin/Baltimore game, I predicted correctly that “... this game is going to be dictated by Berlin’s Stout defense, so I’ll take the under.” Both sides only put up a 23 points combined, which was almost half of what the line of 39.5 points put out. Now on to our season recap of the Degens™.
Everyone is still on the upswing here, as all numbers across the board improve, and everyone's standings from last week is staying as is. CR0ney is still putting up insane numbers, and Seb is on a rocket streak to the highest total bets of the season.
Now let's get onto this week's bets.
……..
……..
*AHEM**AHEM*, THIS WEEKS BETS
……..
BETS?! WHERE ARE THE W11 BETS? WHERE ARE THEY.
…….
……..
Soooooo, they got canceled
W11 Bets of the week
………
I HAVE BREAKING NEWS, WE ARE HAVING A DSFL W8 PROP DAY!!! PRAISE THE SUN GOD FOR WE ARE SAVED!!!
Donovan Winters III (POR) : Turnovers 1.5 O/U - Under
Donovan Winters III comes in off of a subpar start to his final season in the DSFL, With a total of 8 interceptions and 3 fumbles, which combined gives an average of 1.57 turnovers a game. Portland is facing Minnesota this week, and MINN has forced 8 interceptions and 8 fumbles. It's going to be a close line till the final whistle, but Donovan has had a streak of only 1 INT thrown, I’m very shaky but I'll take the under.
Sailor Moon (NOR) : Rushing Attempts 10.5 O/U - Under
This is a hard bet to quantify, as Attempts are controlled by the playbook and the sim gods, and if Norfolk wins. Whenever Norfolk wins, Sailor Moon always eclipses the 10.5 mark, however 3/4 times they have lost, they have hit under 10.5 attempts, and by a wide margin. More or less a coinflip, Under
Keanu Calhoun (DAL) : Receiving Yards 84.5 O/U - Under
Keanu Calhoun is having a spectacular season so far, averaging 92.1 yards a game. This may be due to Calhoun's insane 91-speed. Calhoun currently out speeds anyone on the Luchadores' defense, making Calhoun a target for any deep bombs. Now Calhoun normally either puts up a 125+ Yard game or a 70 or less yard game. Since by terms of targets Calhoun is going up against Luchadores #1 CB, Synester Gates. Another 50/50, I’ll take it under
Chaos Vert (MINN) : Pass Deflections 1.5 O/U - Under
Chaos Vert puts up 1.857 Pass Deflections a game, and PD is a sim god type of bet. However, when looking at Minnesota's opponent, Portland, Has only allowed 3 players to get more than 2 PD in a game, which tracks when you look at the target distribution for Portland. They Normally target across the board, which should give less opportunity for one CB to rack up targets. Ill take the Under
Bubba Chub (KCC) : Pancakes 4.5 - Over
Pancakes, yipee. Bubba Chubb averages 4.285 Pancakes a game. 4/7 games, they have 4 or fewer pancakes. Augh, I’m doing a coinflip, Heads Over, Tails Under
Coin Gods have decided
Wing Wang (TIJ) : Kicks Made 5.5 - Over
That's All I need
Here are this week's bets (I have very little confidence in any of these, dont take this week as advice)
![[Image: Ultimatedestroye.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/Ultimatedestroye.gif)
![[Image: Ultimatedestroyes.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/Ultimatedestroyes.gif)
![[Image: dinonuggets.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/dinonuggets.gif)
