05-17-2023, 11:19 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2023, 02:07 PM by xenosthelegend. Edited 2 times in total.)
Wow we have a lot to go over. My Week 11 DSFL post didn’t cover the results from Week 13 ISFL betting and didn’t give much information on the that week’s lines. I unfortunately had too many real-life activities going on, which is kind of whack in my opinion. These were actually my two best weeks in recent history so it made me kind of sad I didn’t get to talk about them too much. Week 13 netted me $1.5 million and DSFL Week 11 netted $3.4 million, we are climbing out of the hole! Below are my Week 13 and Week 11 DSFL betting summaries.
![[Image: image.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/166412453108908032/1108408662025846945/image.png)
![[Image: image.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/166412453108908032/1108408861364342844/image.png)
Week 13 Review
In an effort so save time I am only going to talk about the bets I actually made.
Johnny Blaze Jr. (SAR) Touchdowns (0.5) OVER – Poor SAR got absolutely blown out of the water in this game. Johnny had one opportunity for the touchdown but dropped the ball. SAR just didn’t get enough opportunities and it cost me $2M on the bet and another $1M on the parlay. I will always support my tight end bros.
Tolliver Bros (BAL) Scrimmage Yards (109.5) OVER – Biggest lock of the season? This was a nuts option that the casino presented to us. I don’t think I saw a single person take the under. The gameday chat was blowing up as the Tolliver bros racked up play after play. They broke through the line in the 3rd quarter I believe and just kept going. I called this one early and was a huge proponent in chat, you’re welcome world. This one netted me $2.7M
League Total Points (329.5) UNDER – The average score per game required to hit this line was 48, which was well below the average game score for the rest of the season. The total ended up being 290 well below the under. I was pretty confident on this line as well. $1.8M win here.
DSFL Week 11 Review
Eldroh Kove (POR) Rushing Yards (97.5) OVER – Wow I was wrong maybe this was the biggest lock of the season. Kove blew this one out of the water with 180+ yards. In fact he actually blew it up in the first quarter with over 120 yards. I would like to take a moment and pour one out for Cr0ney who was adamant on the under. He may have been the only person on that side of the bet. The you Mr. Kove and Portland for $4.5 million straight into my bank.
Stetson David (NOR) Receptions (6.5) UNDER – This one was a mixed bag and more of a coinflip in my opinion that the other two I put money on. It was looking good until the end of the 3rd quarter. He was sitting at 5 receptions and then catapulted straight to 9 receptions by the end of the game. I’ll take the loss of $1M.
Modest Mussorgsky (MINN) Pancakes (5.5) UNDER – Modest had been averaging under 5.5 pancakes all season so I felt confident to slide under on this one. Just so happened it worked out this time. $900k winner.
Week 15
We are getting so close to the end of the season, where did all the time go? Seems like just yesterday I was blasting away my first few millions into the casino ether. Well now I am a hardened gambler throwing caution to the wind. As we are leading up to the Ultimus teams are working extra hard to squeak out play off spots so the competition has never been stiffer. We have some new names and more overall team lines than we usually have so let’s get to it.
Week 15 Analysis
Rogue Santa-Cruz (BER) Pass Attempts (35.5) OVER – Berlin has been making waves in the last few weeks having made some changes and figured out their offense a little bit more. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see them eek out a win versus the YKW this week. Santa-Cruz is currently averaging 42.6 passes per game. In the last BER vs YKW matchup Santa-Cruz had 54 pass attempts! So there is good precedent for him to hit the over here. Granted that game was an outlier and a kick fest, only field goals scored the whole game. I see Berlin continuing to focus on the pass game so we are going over on this one.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) Rushing Yards (68.5) OVER – Danny Nedelko is Running Back #1 for the Outlaws, but really hasn’t been a key point of the AZ offense, who has opted for a stronger passing game. Nedelko has been averaging 67 yards per game, right about the prop bet line. So if Nedelko were to have a good game this could easily be blown out, but the opposite stands true as well. A middling run game has Nedelko going for 40 or so yards. SJS has a strong run defense with second most Tackles for Loss in the league. With this data I want to go under on this, however I am picking the over and I’ll explain that in a minute.
PeePee Poop-Eater Sr. (NOLA) Receiving Yards (100.5) OVER – PeePee is the #1 Wide Receiver for NOLA who has been running a purely passing offense. Currently he is averaging 96.6 yards per game. Again close to the casino line. This week NOLA is playing against AUS who has a decent pass defense. Looking at AUSs stats they have the 3rd highest passes defended in the league and a solid 14 interceptions. PeePee is going to be the main target for NOLA and the only hope they have at working out a win. In the previous matchup of the two Poop-Eater Sr. had 117 total receiving yards. Despite AUS good pass defense NOLA will just throw the ball to PeePee too many times to stop him from getting less than 101 yards.
David Doug (CHI) Total Punts (4.5) OVER – Yuck, this is gross. Kicking lines are a crock of **it. Total punts is probably up there as the worst of the worst or at least tied. This is going to comedown to CHIs offense versus the Yetis defense. The Yeti have a mid defense so it is hard to draw the line here. A classic coin flip line, I am going over on this one.
Cape Town Crash Total Points (26.5) OVER – In only 5 of the Crash’s 14 games have they scored less than 27 points, although one of them was against this weeks opponent, the Sarasota Sailfish. I have the confidence that Cape Town has reworked their scheme and has put in the effort to sim test enough to get a convincing win here. Going with the over.
HON Rushing Attempts (27.5) UNDER – This is a well designed line. HON has been all over the place in the rushing game. Their Running Back #1 bean Delphine Jr. has been averaging 24.8 rush attempts per game but is really either running 18 or 30+ times, no in between. This week HON is going up against the New York Silverbacks who may have one of the worse rushing defenses in the league. If HON opts for a stronger run game they will blow up this line. In the previous matchup HON opted for a strong pass defense, attempting 59 passes and only running the ball 16 times. Because of all this I am going with the under.
OCO vs BAL total points (46.5) OVER – These are two teams with a lot of explosive potential to score a lot of points. BAL loves to rack up big numbers and OCO is not shy to throw the ball downfield. OCO is currently averaging 25.9 points per game and BAL is averaging 21.2 points per game. Combined that is 47.1 points per game beating the line. Unfortunately, this is the meetup of the teams this season so no historical evidence to go off of. I think this one may turn into a bit of a shootout, so I am going over!
But WAIT there’s more! Inspired to go the extra step this week thanks to a certain someone I simmed (mad props to London) Week 20 times and took a look at each of these lines. See the summary below.
![[Image: pNcGO4g.png]](https://i.imgur.com/pNcGO4g.png)
As it turns out, the casino really knows what they were doing. A lot of these lines were a lot closer than I had originally thought based on my analysis. The biggest standout is the PeePee Poop-Eater Sr. line where he averaged 117.8 yards per game over the 100.5 line. The most annoying is the CTC total points, over 20 games they managed to hit the line exactly, how frustrating. My faith in CTC has me going over since the numbers aren’t giving me much information. This was really neat to do but was kind of a nightmare to do by hand so not sure I will keep this up. I know there are methods out there to automate this process, but any sort of coding is wizard nonsense to me. Maybe I will dip my toe in one day.
In keeping with my successful trend I am only going to be betting on the lines that I have the most confidence in. I am taking both my analysis and the simmed games into account to make these decisions. As always I combined the bets I make into an additional parlay so that I can hopefully strike it rich. See the betting summary below.
![[Image: cnaC7v9.png]](https://i.imgur.com/cnaC7v9.png)
We will see if incorporating the sim into my analysis actually helped out or just gave fooled me. At least if I lose, I can call it an “anomaly” and say that it was not supported by the facts. AKA sim gonna sim. Happy betting everyone and good luck!
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $76,000,000 ($8,000,000 pending Week 15)
Total Profit: -$5,300,000
Week 13 Review
In an effort so save time I am only going to talk about the bets I actually made.
Johnny Blaze Jr. (SAR) Touchdowns (0.5) OVER – Poor SAR got absolutely blown out of the water in this game. Johnny had one opportunity for the touchdown but dropped the ball. SAR just didn’t get enough opportunities and it cost me $2M on the bet and another $1M on the parlay. I will always support my tight end bros.
Tolliver Bros (BAL) Scrimmage Yards (109.5) OVER – Biggest lock of the season? This was a nuts option that the casino presented to us. I don’t think I saw a single person take the under. The gameday chat was blowing up as the Tolliver bros racked up play after play. They broke through the line in the 3rd quarter I believe and just kept going. I called this one early and was a huge proponent in chat, you’re welcome world. This one netted me $2.7M
League Total Points (329.5) UNDER – The average score per game required to hit this line was 48, which was well below the average game score for the rest of the season. The total ended up being 290 well below the under. I was pretty confident on this line as well. $1.8M win here.
DSFL Week 11 Review
Eldroh Kove (POR) Rushing Yards (97.5) OVER – Wow I was wrong maybe this was the biggest lock of the season. Kove blew this one out of the water with 180+ yards. In fact he actually blew it up in the first quarter with over 120 yards. I would like to take a moment and pour one out for Cr0ney who was adamant on the under. He may have been the only person on that side of the bet. The you Mr. Kove and Portland for $4.5 million straight into my bank.
Stetson David (NOR) Receptions (6.5) UNDER – This one was a mixed bag and more of a coinflip in my opinion that the other two I put money on. It was looking good until the end of the 3rd quarter. He was sitting at 5 receptions and then catapulted straight to 9 receptions by the end of the game. I’ll take the loss of $1M.
Modest Mussorgsky (MINN) Pancakes (5.5) UNDER – Modest had been averaging under 5.5 pancakes all season so I felt confident to slide under on this one. Just so happened it worked out this time. $900k winner.
Week 15
We are getting so close to the end of the season, where did all the time go? Seems like just yesterday I was blasting away my first few millions into the casino ether. Well now I am a hardened gambler throwing caution to the wind. As we are leading up to the Ultimus teams are working extra hard to squeak out play off spots so the competition has never been stiffer. We have some new names and more overall team lines than we usually have so let’s get to it.
Week 15 Analysis
Rogue Santa-Cruz (BER) Pass Attempts (35.5) OVER – Berlin has been making waves in the last few weeks having made some changes and figured out their offense a little bit more. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see them eek out a win versus the YKW this week. Santa-Cruz is currently averaging 42.6 passes per game. In the last BER vs YKW matchup Santa-Cruz had 54 pass attempts! So there is good precedent for him to hit the over here. Granted that game was an outlier and a kick fest, only field goals scored the whole game. I see Berlin continuing to focus on the pass game so we are going over on this one.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) Rushing Yards (68.5) OVER – Danny Nedelko is Running Back #1 for the Outlaws, but really hasn’t been a key point of the AZ offense, who has opted for a stronger passing game. Nedelko has been averaging 67 yards per game, right about the prop bet line. So if Nedelko were to have a good game this could easily be blown out, but the opposite stands true as well. A middling run game has Nedelko going for 40 or so yards. SJS has a strong run defense with second most Tackles for Loss in the league. With this data I want to go under on this, however I am picking the over and I’ll explain that in a minute.
PeePee Poop-Eater Sr. (NOLA) Receiving Yards (100.5) OVER – PeePee is the #1 Wide Receiver for NOLA who has been running a purely passing offense. Currently he is averaging 96.6 yards per game. Again close to the casino line. This week NOLA is playing against AUS who has a decent pass defense. Looking at AUSs stats they have the 3rd highest passes defended in the league and a solid 14 interceptions. PeePee is going to be the main target for NOLA and the only hope they have at working out a win. In the previous matchup of the two Poop-Eater Sr. had 117 total receiving yards. Despite AUS good pass defense NOLA will just throw the ball to PeePee too many times to stop him from getting less than 101 yards.
David Doug (CHI) Total Punts (4.5) OVER – Yuck, this is gross. Kicking lines are a crock of **it. Total punts is probably up there as the worst of the worst or at least tied. This is going to comedown to CHIs offense versus the Yetis defense. The Yeti have a mid defense so it is hard to draw the line here. A classic coin flip line, I am going over on this one.
Cape Town Crash Total Points (26.5) OVER – In only 5 of the Crash’s 14 games have they scored less than 27 points, although one of them was against this weeks opponent, the Sarasota Sailfish. I have the confidence that Cape Town has reworked their scheme and has put in the effort to sim test enough to get a convincing win here. Going with the over.
HON Rushing Attempts (27.5) UNDER – This is a well designed line. HON has been all over the place in the rushing game. Their Running Back #1 bean Delphine Jr. has been averaging 24.8 rush attempts per game but is really either running 18 or 30+ times, no in between. This week HON is going up against the New York Silverbacks who may have one of the worse rushing defenses in the league. If HON opts for a stronger run game they will blow up this line. In the previous matchup HON opted for a strong pass defense, attempting 59 passes and only running the ball 16 times. Because of all this I am going with the under.
OCO vs BAL total points (46.5) OVER – These are two teams with a lot of explosive potential to score a lot of points. BAL loves to rack up big numbers and OCO is not shy to throw the ball downfield. OCO is currently averaging 25.9 points per game and BAL is averaging 21.2 points per game. Combined that is 47.1 points per game beating the line. Unfortunately, this is the meetup of the teams this season so no historical evidence to go off of. I think this one may turn into a bit of a shootout, so I am going over!
But WAIT there’s more! Inspired to go the extra step this week thanks to a certain someone I simmed (mad props to London) Week 20 times and took a look at each of these lines. See the summary below.
As it turns out, the casino really knows what they were doing. A lot of these lines were a lot closer than I had originally thought based on my analysis. The biggest standout is the PeePee Poop-Eater Sr. line where he averaged 117.8 yards per game over the 100.5 line. The most annoying is the CTC total points, over 20 games they managed to hit the line exactly, how frustrating. My faith in CTC has me going over since the numbers aren’t giving me much information. This was really neat to do but was kind of a nightmare to do by hand so not sure I will keep this up. I know there are methods out there to automate this process, but any sort of coding is wizard nonsense to me. Maybe I will dip my toe in one day.
In keeping with my successful trend I am only going to be betting on the lines that I have the most confidence in. I am taking both my analysis and the simmed games into account to make these decisions. As always I combined the bets I make into an additional parlay so that I can hopefully strike it rich. See the betting summary below.
We will see if incorporating the sim into my analysis actually helped out or just gave fooled me. At least if I lose, I can call it an “anomaly” and say that it was not supported by the facts. AKA sim gonna sim. Happy betting everyone and good luck!
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $76,000,000 ($8,000,000 pending Week 15)
Total Profit: -$5,300,000
![[Image: ChickenLips.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/ChickenLips.gif)
