06-30-2023, 03:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-09-2023, 05:01 PM by xenosthelegend. Edited 1 time in total.)
The red zone is one of my favorite concepts in football. It's the kind of field position that causes priorities to shift. The offense goes from just wanting points on the board to pushing for six. For the defense, just forcing a field goal feels like a victory. That's not even mentioning how a turnover can completely change the balance of a game. Unfortunately the index doesn't track red zone stats, so I've decided to go through and find out myself just how effective the DSFL teams are at playing with a short field!
First, we have to define when a team is in the red zone. A red zone attempt is started when a team runs a play from within the opposing 20 yard line. Of course, this does mean that not all red zone attempts are created equal. A team with 4th & 7 from the 20 is obviously different from a team with 1st & goal from the 1. It's not a perfect system, but it gives a general idea of how these teams do with a short field ahead of or behind them. The only exception made is for teams who are leading as the game ends. Those teams aren't looking to take any risks, and the clock running out is better for them than putting more points on the board. With that in mind, I went back through each of the 28 games played so far this season and counted how many times each team made the red zone and the results (as well as making those same tallies for the opposing defense). I also only counted field goal attempts without regard to whether the field goal was made or missed-- we aren't focusing on the kickers (unfortunately). With that out of the way, let's look at the offenses first.
OFFENSE
Here we see each team's offense split into overall stats and red zone attempts/results. Minnesota has been in the red zone more than any other team, and they're the only offense who hasn't walked off the field without giving their kicker a chance. Unfortunately, they're also the offense who's handed it off to their kicker the most. While they haven't made any big mistakes in the red zone, the Grey Ducks may need to take a couple more risks to maintain their lead in the North.
Portland and Tijuana tie for 2nd most red zone appearances, but their red zone profiles are anything but the same. The Pythons have the second highest TD rate of any team, with all but 3 of their total TDs coming from inside the 20. Meanwhile the Luchadores have comparatively struggled to finish drives, but they've found that they can rely on huge plays more than any other team in the league. Norfolk is similar in relying on scores from outside the redzone, but struggle even moreso inside it with a league-leading number of failures to score.
London is on the lower end of red zone attempts, but they boast the best efficiency on finishing drives with a touchdown. Part of this may come from their running game, which is arguably the best in the DSFL. Time will tell if they can get more drives into the red zone to make use of that efficiency... or if that would cause it to regress.
The remaining 3 offenses have some concerns to address. Dallas, though not among the lower group in terms of red zone trips, have struggled to get things going even in the open field. They trail the league in both yards and touchdowns and are one of 3 offenses who have called on the kicker in the red zone 10 or more times. Bondi Beach and Kansas City are last in terms of appearances, and while both have a decent TD rate it's hard to say they finish drives. KC is 7th yards, but t-2nd in TD plays of over 20 yards. The Buccaneers heavily rely on the passing game, and while it is effective in some instances there are other cases where they struggle... like defensively.
DEFENSE
Note: Defensive Efficiency is defined as the rate at which a defense forces a result other than a touchdown.
Since I've already said it, I'm going to start with Bondi Beach and Kansas City at the bottom. They have allowed teams to reach the red zone and score touchdowns more than anybody else. Though their efficiency at holding teams to field goals or forcing turnovers may not be among the worst, the sheer volume is what hurts them as teams.
The best in terms of defensive efficiency is Portland, the only team to force more field goals than touchdowns, not to mention tying for the most turnovers. The most similar team there is Dallas, who seem to be relying very heavily on their defense to win games. Minnesota meanwhile are playing well on both sides of the football, manufacturing more red zone drives for their offense and preventing their defense from fighting with their backs against the wall. Unlike their offense, they feature a 3rd-ranked ability to make an offense settle for 3.
The rest of the defenses are a mixed bag. The Luchadores have the 2nd fewest red zone trips allowed, but the 2nd worst rate of touchdowns allowed. The Royals are similar but worse off on both accounts, allowing a few more RZ visits and a few more TDs. Norfolk once again leave something to be desired, as the Seawolves have room to improve in both RZ drives allowed and TDs allowed.
Overall it's been fun taking a look at these short yardage situations. They may not actually have much of an impact, but it's helped me understand some of the dynamics at play in the DSFL right now. If I had to draw a few conclusions, this is what I'd say:
They should have a bigger lead over the North, they just need to finish better in the red zone on offense.
They could be a dangerous team if they can manufacture more short-field drives.
They need some more big plays to close the gap, as they already have fantastic short yardage offense and defense.
Their explosive offense and good open field defense is a fantastic mix that could lead to another Ultimini.
Troubling signs for this squad. It doesn't seem like these numbers can sustain their current record for much longer.
If their offense can find even a bit more success, they can ride their defense to the South championship game.
& It's not looking good for either team, and with the rest of the South so far in front it may already be over for Bondi Beach.
Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed my ramblings about how teams play within an arbitrarily defined portion of the field!
First, we have to define when a team is in the red zone. A red zone attempt is started when a team runs a play from within the opposing 20 yard line. Of course, this does mean that not all red zone attempts are created equal. A team with 4th & 7 from the 20 is obviously different from a team with 1st & goal from the 1. It's not a perfect system, but it gives a general idea of how these teams do with a short field ahead of or behind them. The only exception made is for teams who are leading as the game ends. Those teams aren't looking to take any risks, and the clock running out is better for them than putting more points on the board. With that in mind, I went back through each of the 28 games played so far this season and counted how many times each team made the red zone and the results (as well as making those same tallies for the opposing defense). I also only counted field goal attempts without regard to whether the field goal was made or missed-- we aren't focusing on the kickers (unfortunately). With that out of the way, let's look at the offenses first.
OFFENSE
Here we see each team's offense split into overall stats and red zone attempts/results. Minnesota has been in the red zone more than any other team, and they're the only offense who hasn't walked off the field without giving their kicker a chance. Unfortunately, they're also the offense who's handed it off to their kicker the most. While they haven't made any big mistakes in the red zone, the Grey Ducks may need to take a couple more risks to maintain their lead in the North.
Portland and Tijuana tie for 2nd most red zone appearances, but their red zone profiles are anything but the same. The Pythons have the second highest TD rate of any team, with all but 3 of their total TDs coming from inside the 20. Meanwhile the Luchadores have comparatively struggled to finish drives, but they've found that they can rely on huge plays more than any other team in the league. Norfolk is similar in relying on scores from outside the redzone, but struggle even moreso inside it with a league-leading number of failures to score.
London is on the lower end of red zone attempts, but they boast the best efficiency on finishing drives with a touchdown. Part of this may come from their running game, which is arguably the best in the DSFL. Time will tell if they can get more drives into the red zone to make use of that efficiency... or if that would cause it to regress.
The remaining 3 offenses have some concerns to address. Dallas, though not among the lower group in terms of red zone trips, have struggled to get things going even in the open field. They trail the league in both yards and touchdowns and are one of 3 offenses who have called on the kicker in the red zone 10 or more times. Bondi Beach and Kansas City are last in terms of appearances, and while both have a decent TD rate it's hard to say they finish drives. KC is 7th yards, but t-2nd in TD plays of over 20 yards. The Buccaneers heavily rely on the passing game, and while it is effective in some instances there are other cases where they struggle... like defensively.
DEFENSE
Note: Defensive Efficiency is defined as the rate at which a defense forces a result other than a touchdown.
Since I've already said it, I'm going to start with Bondi Beach and Kansas City at the bottom. They have allowed teams to reach the red zone and score touchdowns more than anybody else. Though their efficiency at holding teams to field goals or forcing turnovers may not be among the worst, the sheer volume is what hurts them as teams.
The best in terms of defensive efficiency is Portland, the only team to force more field goals than touchdowns, not to mention tying for the most turnovers. The most similar team there is Dallas, who seem to be relying very heavily on their defense to win games. Minnesota meanwhile are playing well on both sides of the football, manufacturing more red zone drives for their offense and preventing their defense from fighting with their backs against the wall. Unlike their offense, they feature a 3rd-ranked ability to make an offense settle for 3.
The rest of the defenses are a mixed bag. The Luchadores have the 2nd fewest red zone trips allowed, but the 2nd worst rate of touchdowns allowed. The Royals are similar but worse off on both accounts, allowing a few more RZ visits and a few more TDs. Norfolk once again leave something to be desired, as the Seawolves have room to improve in both RZ drives allowed and TDs allowed.
Overall it's been fun taking a look at these short yardage situations. They may not actually have much of an impact, but it's helped me understand some of the dynamics at play in the DSFL right now. If I had to draw a few conclusions, this is what I'd say:
They should have a bigger lead over the North, they just need to finish better in the red zone on offense.
They could be a dangerous team if they can manufacture more short-field drives.
They need some more big plays to close the gap, as they already have fantastic short yardage offense and defense.
Their explosive offense and good open field defense is a fantastic mix that could lead to another Ultimini.
Troubling signs for this squad. It doesn't seem like these numbers can sustain their current record for much longer.
If their offense can find even a bit more success, they can ride their defense to the South championship game.
& It's not looking good for either team, and with the rest of the South so far in front it may already be over for Bondi Beach.
Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed my ramblings about how teams play within an arbitrarily defined portion of the field!