10-07-2023, 05:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2023, 03:00 PM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
Hi all! One of the great things about the early season of the ISFL is arguing about why your team is better than everyone else's! Of course, we could talk about a team's record or use point differential, but all of that can be a little subjective when trying to figure out which teams are the favorites to win the Ultimus this season. That's where Dominator Power Rankings come in!
What is Dominator Power Ranking?
(If you don't really care about the math behind the rankings and just want to get to the good part - arguing about why your team is better than what this says - you can skip this part!)
With Dominator Power Rankings, each team can earn a rating between -20 and 20 based on how dominant their team has been during their games this season. To calculate this, a score is assigned to each of the following 5 score possibilities:
Down Multiple Scores: -2
Down One Score: -1
Tied: 0
Up One Score: 1
Up Multiple Scores: 2
For each team, a weighted average is calculated for each quarter based on how much time their team spent in each category. Therefore, each team gets a score for each quarter from -2 to 2 by taking a look at all of their games up to this point. However, you want to be ahead at the end of the game more than at the beginning of the game. So to get the final rating, the sum is taken for the four quarter ratings with a multiplier being applied based on what quarter it is. (x1 for Q1, x2 for Q2, x3 for Q3, x4 for Q4) This number is then a team's Dominator Score that is used to figure out the Dominator Power Ranking. The way the rankings are set up, a score of 0 for any quarter or as a team total will always be the league average. That allows for a quick check of above/below average for each team quickly.
On to this week's rankings!
New Orleans started out strong with a fairly dominant win over Chicago but followed that up with three straight losses, two of them by double digits. In fact, they never led in their three losses. With their dominator score below league average for every quarter, they have room for improvement across the board.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 2-14
13. Chicago Butchers (1-3)
Dominator Score: -8.035
% of Time Winning: 18.7%
% of Time Losing: 53.5%
A very similar season so far to New Orleans just in a different order, the Butchers lost three straight games by double digits to open the season before dominating in their most recent game. Will they be able to continue their success? The also have room for improvement, including a league worst -1.000 score for the fourth quarter.
Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 2-14
12. Sarasota Sailfish (1-3)
Dominator Score: -7.849
% of Time Winning: 14.6%
% of Time Losing: 50.5%
The Sailfish have been in some close games but only recently coming up with a victory (in overtime no less). In fact, 59.9% of their game time has been when the lead (for either team) was within one score (4th highest in the league). With so many close losses, the Sailfiish will need to take the lead early to improve their chances.
Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 2-14
11. Orange County Otters (1-3)
Dominator Score: -6.959
% of Time Winning: 12.2%
% of Time Losing: 50.7%
The Otters have been playing from behind early and often, earning the lowest score in the league for the 1st quarter. Their only win this season was against Sarasota in which it took 24 second half points to pull out the victory. This is another team that will need to figure out how to flip the script on the season quickly.
Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 3-13
10. Yellowknife Wraiths (2-2)
Dominator Score: -3.135
% of Time Winning: 26.3%
% of Time Losing: 42.5%
Yellowknife has alternated wins and losses to start the season but have needed to win late while their losses were not as close. Below league average for every quarter, the second quarter has been their worst with a dominator score of -0.799. Time will tell to see if this lack of dominating opponents is indicative of a team that isn't quite there.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 7-9
9. Baltimore Hawks (2-2)
Dominator Score: -1.071
% of Time Winning: 32.13%
% of Time Losing: 31.79%
The defending champion Hawks have stumbled out of the gate a bit with a blowout loss to start the season and most recently an overtime loss to an inferior Sarasota team. This is the first team to have a positive dominator score for a quarter with a 0.033 score for quarter 2. However, the Hawks have seen a drop off in the second half that leads to their placement here.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 8-8
8. Colorado Yeti (2-2)
Dominator Score: 0.595
% of Time Winning: 37.6%
% of Time Losing: 31.7%
Colorado has been a hot and cold team so far this year. They started the season with two pretty convincing wins (the Berlin game was not as close as the final score appears) followed by two straight double digit losses. I would expect continued volatility until we figure out who they really are.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 9-7
7. Austin Copperheads (2-2)
Dominator Score: 1.104
% of Time Winning: 36.2%
% of Time Losing: 20.9%
Austin has started out games strong on defense, being one of three teams to have never been behind in the first quarter. However, their play after quarter 1 (especially the second half) has been a factor in their two blowout losses. A tough remaining schedule may find them on the outside looking in.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 6-10
6. Honolulu Hahalua (2-2)
Dominator Score: 1.304
% of Time Winning: 37.1%
% of Time Losing: 28.3%
Another team that has never trailed in the first quarter, the Hahalua are another team with a mixed bag so far this season. The recent dismantling of Arizona definitely bumps them up these rankings but we will need to see more consistent play to expect them to make a run this season.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 9-7
5. Arizona Outlaws (3-1)
Dominator Score: 4.421
% of Time Winning: 38.8%
% of Time Losing: 20.3%
The Outlaws have started out a bit slow (below league average for quarter 1 dominator score) but have been able to finish games well with the fourth best fourth quarter score. Also, two wins over teams ranked higher than them on this list are a good sign. The Outlaws should see their ranking increase if they keep it up. A blowout loss to Honolulu recently is the only reason we see them at 5.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Ranking: 12-4
4. Berlin Fire Salamanders (2-2)
Dominator Score: 5.016
% of Time Winning: 44.6%
% of Time Losing: 36.7%
Berlin is the second team in a row that has started out slow only to turn it on later in the game. In fact, Berlin has the highest quarter 3 score in the league at 1.044. A blown 4th quarter lead against Baltimore week 2 is the only thing standing between them and contender status at the moment.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Ranking: 11-5
3. San Jose SaberCats (2-2)
Dominator Score: 7.001
% of Time Winning: 52.0%
% of Time Losing: 12.9%
The SaberCats are an interesting case and challenge to this model. They are the only team in the league to be winning over half the time and have spent the least time trailing so far this season. However, they have a .500 record so far this season. To add to this, they have also spend the most time in the league in one score games at 65.6% of the time. So they are winning but not winning big. In fact, all four of their games have ended as one score contests. If the Dominator Rankings hold true, we should see the SaberCats outperform their current record.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 13-3
2. New York Silverbacks (3-1)
Dominator Score: 7.602
% of Time Winning: 41.5%
% of Time Losing: 18.1%
The Silverbacks lost their first game but have since had three solid performances. Like the top team on this list, New York's Dominator Score increase for every quarter of play. A solid team that we expect to continue their solid play and be in the hunt for an Ultimus.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 13-3
1. Cape Town Crash (4-0)
Dominator Score: 8.834
% of Time Winning: 46.5%
% of Time Losing: 16.6%
The Crash look like the team to beat so far this year with three games in which they dominated and a fourth victory in comeback fashion against Yellowknife week 2. As the only undefeated team so far this season, how far can they take their dominance?
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 15-1
Which team is over/underperforming so far this year? Do you think the season predictions will hold true? Check back next weekend for another installment!
What is Dominator Power Ranking?
(If you don't really care about the math behind the rankings and just want to get to the good part - arguing about why your team is better than what this says - you can skip this part!)
With Dominator Power Rankings, each team can earn a rating between -20 and 20 based on how dominant their team has been during their games this season. To calculate this, a score is assigned to each of the following 5 score possibilities:
Down Multiple Scores: -2
Down One Score: -1
Tied: 0
Up One Score: 1
Up Multiple Scores: 2
For each team, a weighted average is calculated for each quarter based on how much time their team spent in each category. Therefore, each team gets a score for each quarter from -2 to 2 by taking a look at all of their games up to this point. However, you want to be ahead at the end of the game more than at the beginning of the game. So to get the final rating, the sum is taken for the four quarter ratings with a multiplier being applied based on what quarter it is. (x1 for Q1, x2 for Q2, x3 for Q3, x4 for Q4) This number is then a team's Dominator Score that is used to figure out the Dominator Power Ranking. The way the rankings are set up, a score of 0 for any quarter or as a team total will always be the league average. That allows for a quick check of above/below average for each team quickly.
On to this week's rankings!
ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - Week 4
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14. New Orleans Secondline (1-3)
Dominator Score; -8.829
% of Time Winning: 17.7%
% of Time Losing: 51.5%
Dominator Score; -8.829
% of Time Winning: 17.7%
% of Time Losing: 51.5%
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 2-14
13. Chicago Butchers (1-3)
Dominator Score: -8.035
% of Time Winning: 18.7%
% of Time Losing: 53.5%
A very similar season so far to New Orleans just in a different order, the Butchers lost three straight games by double digits to open the season before dominating in their most recent game. Will they be able to continue their success? The also have room for improvement, including a league worst -1.000 score for the fourth quarter.
Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 2-14
12. Sarasota Sailfish (1-3)
Dominator Score: -7.849
% of Time Winning: 14.6%
% of Time Losing: 50.5%
The Sailfish have been in some close games but only recently coming up with a victory (in overtime no less). In fact, 59.9% of their game time has been when the lead (for either team) was within one score (4th highest in the league). With so many close losses, the Sailfiish will need to take the lead early to improve their chances.
Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 2-14
11. Orange County Otters (1-3)
Dominator Score: -6.959
% of Time Winning: 12.2%
% of Time Losing: 50.7%
The Otters have been playing from behind early and often, earning the lowest score in the league for the 1st quarter. Their only win this season was against Sarasota in which it took 24 second half points to pull out the victory. This is another team that will need to figure out how to flip the script on the season quickly.
Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 3-13
10. Yellowknife Wraiths (2-2)
Dominator Score: -3.135
% of Time Winning: 26.3%
% of Time Losing: 42.5%
Yellowknife has alternated wins and losses to start the season but have needed to win late while their losses were not as close. Below league average for every quarter, the second quarter has been their worst with a dominator score of -0.799. Time will tell to see if this lack of dominating opponents is indicative of a team that isn't quite there.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 7-9
9. Baltimore Hawks (2-2)
Dominator Score: -1.071
% of Time Winning: 32.13%
% of Time Losing: 31.79%
The defending champion Hawks have stumbled out of the gate a bit with a blowout loss to start the season and most recently an overtime loss to an inferior Sarasota team. This is the first team to have a positive dominator score for a quarter with a 0.033 score for quarter 2. However, the Hawks have seen a drop off in the second half that leads to their placement here.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 8-8
8. Colorado Yeti (2-2)
Dominator Score: 0.595
% of Time Winning: 37.6%
% of Time Losing: 31.7%
Colorado has been a hot and cold team so far this year. They started the season with two pretty convincing wins (the Berlin game was not as close as the final score appears) followed by two straight double digit losses. I would expect continued volatility until we figure out who they really are.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 9-7
7. Austin Copperheads (2-2)
Dominator Score: 1.104
% of Time Winning: 36.2%
% of Time Losing: 20.9%
Austin has started out games strong on defense, being one of three teams to have never been behind in the first quarter. However, their play after quarter 1 (especially the second half) has been a factor in their two blowout losses. A tough remaining schedule may find them on the outside looking in.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 6-10
6. Honolulu Hahalua (2-2)
Dominator Score: 1.304
% of Time Winning: 37.1%
% of Time Losing: 28.3%
Another team that has never trailed in the first quarter, the Hahalua are another team with a mixed bag so far this season. The recent dismantling of Arizona definitely bumps them up these rankings but we will need to see more consistent play to expect them to make a run this season.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 9-7
5. Arizona Outlaws (3-1)
Dominator Score: 4.421
% of Time Winning: 38.8%
% of Time Losing: 20.3%
The Outlaws have started out a bit slow (below league average for quarter 1 dominator score) but have been able to finish games well with the fourth best fourth quarter score. Also, two wins over teams ranked higher than them on this list are a good sign. The Outlaws should see their ranking increase if they keep it up. A blowout loss to Honolulu recently is the only reason we see them at 5.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Ranking: 12-4
4. Berlin Fire Salamanders (2-2)
Dominator Score: 5.016
% of Time Winning: 44.6%
% of Time Losing: 36.7%
Berlin is the second team in a row that has started out slow only to turn it on later in the game. In fact, Berlin has the highest quarter 3 score in the league at 1.044. A blown 4th quarter lead against Baltimore week 2 is the only thing standing between them and contender status at the moment.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Ranking: 11-5
3. San Jose SaberCats (2-2)
Dominator Score: 7.001
% of Time Winning: 52.0%
% of Time Losing: 12.9%
The SaberCats are an interesting case and challenge to this model. They are the only team in the league to be winning over half the time and have spent the least time trailing so far this season. However, they have a .500 record so far this season. To add to this, they have also spend the most time in the league in one score games at 65.6% of the time. So they are winning but not winning big. In fact, all four of their games have ended as one score contests. If the Dominator Rankings hold true, we should see the SaberCats outperform their current record.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 13-3
2. New York Silverbacks (3-1)
Dominator Score: 7.602
% of Time Winning: 41.5%
% of Time Losing: 18.1%
The Silverbacks lost their first game but have since had three solid performances. Like the top team on this list, New York's Dominator Score increase for every quarter of play. A solid team that we expect to continue their solid play and be in the hunt for an Ultimus.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 13-3
1. Cape Town Crash (4-0)
Dominator Score: 8.834
% of Time Winning: 46.5%
% of Time Losing: 16.6%
The Crash look like the team to beat so far this year with three games in which they dominated and a fourth victory in comeback fashion against Yellowknife week 2. As the only undefeated team so far this season, how far can they take their dominance?
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 15-1
Which team is over/underperforming so far this year? Do you think the season predictions will hold true? Check back next weekend for another installment!
DSFL S43 Draft - Round 4 Pick 30
ISFL S44 Draft - Round 1 Pick 12
S43 DSFL Pro Bowl
S44 DSFL Pro Bowl
S45 All Rookie Team
S48 ISFL Pro Bowl
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Gemini Media Awards
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Best Article (Limited) - S43 "Do Penalties Really Matter?"
Best Author - S43, S44