03-20-2024, 01:45 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2024, 02:02 PM by wetwilleh. Edited 5 times in total.)
Welcome back to another season of fantasy fantasy football! The real reason we all play football with dots, obviously. As always, these rankings are my rationale for my rankings. If you're looking for a more general fantasy ranking sheet, the SFWG consensus rankings include @jdc4654's and @CROney3's rankings as well (and are probably a little more accurate on the whole, to be perfectly honest; less prone to my hot takes).
If you're in it for my spin on the narratives as well as the rankings, then read on!
Quarterbacks
1) Thor Bollrsveifla -
Last season's finish: QB1
I was tentatively optimistic about Thor last season. In the ISFL, much like in real life, scrambling quarterbacks are something of a cheat code for fantasy. The main worry with Thor came down to the fact that scrambling quarterbacks are notoriously poor passers in the ISFL and he was pretty low TPE coming into his rookie season. Luckily for Thor, the weapons around him were quite possibly the best in the league. Admittedly S46 was something of a down season in terms of quarterback scoring (no quarterback broke 300 points), but Thor was the QB1 nevertheless thanks to his legs and a little help from the elite talent around him. His surrounding weapons are still elite entering S47 and Thor himself is quickly getting better. He should only get better from here.
2) Lenard McRobinson -
Last season's finish: QB14
Thor did great as a rookie, so why not McRobinson? Admittedly McRobinson's weapons aren't quite as good as Thor's were, but you may be surprised to learn that Honolulu's offense is not actually barren of talent, despite how severe their selloff last season appeared. They still have a good running back, they still have a solid WR1, and they still have a decent WR2. Granted, the WR1 and WR2 are both on the trade block, but those players are still on the Hahalua roster as of this writing. Bottom line: running QB go brrrrr.
3) Lloyd Bannings -
Last season's finish: QB4
Bannings was surprisingly inefficient last season, which really puts into perspective just how good Orange County's offense is. Bannings himself is one of the highest TPE quarterbacks in the league. His receivers are all in the ballpark of 1k TPE. His running back is one of the best in the league. His situation is so good that being QB4 last season was actually something of a disappointment. His situation hasn't changed much, and he can't really be any more inefficient. The Otters have a juggernaut offense, and Bannings should easily roll to another solid fantasy season in S47.
4) Octavian Speedings -
Last season's finish: QB3
To be perfectly honest, I'm not quite sure why New Orleans has been as pass happy as they have. Yes, they have a very good quarterback and good receivers. They also have a very good running back. You'd think a more balanced offense would benefit them. Nevertheless, the Second Line have exhibited a strong trend toward being an excessively pass happy team, which means Speedings is likely to continue to be among the leaders in pass attempts in S47. High volume plus high TPE usually leads to pretty strong fantasy numbers. To be perfectly honest, though, even if NOLA took their foot off the gas a little, Speedings and his weapons still have the TPE to produce a highly efficient passing attack. Speedings should be a safe fantasy quarterback regardless of how New Orleans decides to approach their offensive philosophy this season.
5) Josh Patterson -
Last season's finish: QB13
I came out last season in full support of a Josh Patterson breakout. It made sense, given that the Sabercats had a good QB-WR tandem and a mediocre pair of running backs. Clearly that didn't materialize. Kit Fisto fever took over the Sabercats as San Jose fell just shy of 600 pass attempts, only good for 9th in the league. So what changed this season that led me to keep Patterson in the QB1 territory of my rankings despite an abysmal stat line in S46? Well, for starters, I'm stubborn and the numbers make it look like San Jose should pass the ball more. Personal bias aside, though, I've been informed by a little birdy that the Sabercats will indeed commit more to the pass this season. We'll see how well they stick to that commitment, but on paper it makes sense, especially after trading for Florida Man at the trade deadline last season. Patterson has a chance to go wheels up in the passing game.
6) Donovan Winters III -
Last season's finish: QB5
There's no questioning the efficiency of the Outlaws' offense. Only the volume. Despite boasting one of the highest TPE quarterbacks in the league along with one of the deeper receiving corps, Arizona opted to lean into their comparatively low TPE running game. Obviously it works for their success as a team, but won't they think of the poor fantasy implications? Arizona being Arizona, there's little reason to believe a shift in offensive philosophy is coming. The Outlaws' offense will continue to be efficient as always, but a lack of volume will limit Winters' fantasy ceiling.
7) Wolfie McDummy Jr -
Last season's finish: QB10
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third...fourth...I've lost track of how many times I've pumped up McDummy Jr only to be disappointed by his fantasy performance. Truthfully I'm baffled. The Yeti have long had a pass-centric offense featuring much better talent in the passing game than running game. So why can't Wolfie post a better fantasy stat line? Your guess is as good as mine. However, even my eternal optimism has its limits. McDummy is still among the highest TPE quarterbacks in the league, but his receiving corps is really starting to lose its depth. On top of that, the Yeti actually have a pair of solid running backs now. Recent lack of passing success combined with a shift in offensive balance has really sapped my optimism for a good fantasy season moving forward.
8) Maximus Boudreaux -
Last season's finish: QB9
Despite what Money Tolliver's numbers would have you believe, the Wraiths were actually pretty middle of the pack in pass attempts last season. It may not have been the most explosive passing game in the league (8th in pass attempts, 11th in passing yards), but Boudreaux put together a solid stat line for a largely dink-and-dunk offense. Then the Wraiths brought in Nick Williams. Granted, it's not like the situation behind Williams has changed much, but just having that bona fide WR1 can do wonders for offensive success. This is still unlikely to be anything approaching an air raid offense, but just a bit more efficiency could easily push Boudreaux into fantasy relevance.
Notable Omissions:
Jay Cue III - - Last season's finish: QB2
Painted Penguin - - Last season's finish: QB6
That's right, I've dropped two of last season's top 6 quarterbacks out of the top 8 entirely in my rankings. The case against Painted Penguin is fairly easy to make. Penguin himself has regressed well below 1000 TPE and he's only left with one notable receiver (who is still just shy of 1k TPE himself). Penguin's fantasy production last season was boosted by a pass-centric verts offense (especially after trading Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin), but that doesn't seem like a viable strategy with what Chicago has left.
Jay Cue III's drop is likely more surprising, but then again so was his success last season. Cue managed to produce with heavily regressed receivers in S46, but can he do it again with regression hitting his weapons even harder? Wide receivers Delores Bickerman and Zaphod Beeblebrox both have one foot in the grave (quite literally, in Beeblebrox's case), and running back Jeff Newman isn't doing much better flexing out as Austin's WR3. Even if Cue maintains whatever black magic allowed him to produce so spectacularly with such mid weapons, it's unlikely he'll reach the same heights with just how much his weapons are regressing.
Running Backs
1) Frank Dux -
Last season's finish: RB3
Dux has been a fantasy mainstay for several seasons now, and he's showing no signs of letting up. Sure, Dux has hit a bit of regression, but so has the entire Silverback offense. As it stands, Dux appears to be the best part of New York's offense, which gives him a nice, safe floor. On top of that, New York went out and signed fullback Leandre Diarra, who has made it his mission to turn as many running backs as he can into 1st team All Pros. It worked for Ayame last season. There's a good chance it'll work for Dux this season.
2) Nakiri Ayame -
Last season' finish: RB2
Ayame is fresh off setting the scrimmage yard record, and even that couldn't win them the overall RB1 finish for fantasy. Ayame's life hasn't gotten any easier going into S47 either. QB Thor Bollrsveifla is a red zone menace in his own right and now there are two other running backs on the active roster. However, these complications shouldn't be any more than speed bumps for Ayame. Cape Town needed warm bodies as they only have two WRs on the active roster and no TEs, so the spare running backs are more likely to fill in those roles than they are to take away from Ayame's production. Furthermore, there's little reason to suspect any major uptick in pass attempts when the Crash still boast a scrambling quarterback alongside Ayame. Really, it's more accurate to view Ayame as the RB1b rather than RB2.
3) Reginald Shrubbery -
Last season's finish: RB1
And the last of the elite running back trio. Much like Ayame being more of the RB1b than RB2, Shrubbery is really more of the RB1c than RB3. All three have very legitimate cases to be the RB1 overall, and it's likely that these three will be the top fantasy running backs come the end of this season. So why would I put Shrubbery last among them after a dominating performance in S46? Gut feeling, mostly. I was actually quite surprised to see Shrubbery topping the running back fantasy charts last season despite residing in the second lowest rushing volume offense in the league. Obviously his receiving work had a lot to do with that, but will Orange County continue to use Shrubbery so heavily in the passing game? Remember, they have quite possibly the deepest receiving corps in the league with three receivers and a tight end all over 800 TPE. Shrubbery will still benefit from being the workhorse back in a good offense. Just be wary that the Otters' scheme is more fluid that most thanks to their well rounded offense giving them more options.
4) Howard Coward -
Last season's finish: RB7
As the rest of Austin's weapons fade due to regression, Coward's grip on the offense continues to tighten. What's more, he's got a solid fullback in Sean Aldrich plowing the way for him. It's difficult to believe the Copperheads will continue to rely on Jay Cue III's arm when Coward nearly has more TPE than any two other weapons in the offense put together. Austin's offense should operate through Coward's legs, which gives him some nice potential.
5) Ace Anderson -
Last season's finish: RB5
Hell has frozen over. The Sailfish ran the ball last season. I wasn't aware they knew how that worked. Jokes aside, Sarasota's newfound reliance on the running game faded over the course of the season in favor of their more traditional pass-based offense, but the fact remains that they made an effort to get Ace Anderson the ball more often. With Willier Miller fading quickly to regression, it seems likely that Anderson's workload is likely to increase moving forward. That's music to my ears for fantasy purposes.
6) Money Tolliver -
Last season's finish: RB4
The long time centerpiece of the Wraiths' offense is the latest victim to the theft that is regression. It's hardly the end of the line for the star running back, but it is notably the beginning of the end. Tolliver will continue to operate as the workhorse back for Yellowknife, but between his own regression and the arrival of wide receiver Nick Williams he may not be quite the offensive centerpiece we're used to him being.
7) Kyle Crane -
Last season's finish: RB6
To be clear, Crane absolutely has the potential to make it into the same tier as Reginald Shrubbery. Both are high TPE running backs in strong offenses. The potential is there. So why do I have Crane ranked lower? Because New Orleans seems to have an odd aversion to just letting Crane run. What's more, even if they do change up their offense and run more this season, there's now some competition in the backfield. Granted, Crane is still leagues ahead in TPE so it's unlikely to be anything approaching a true timeshare, but it is worth noting nevertheless.
8) Stetson David -
Last season's finish: RB10
The Hahalua had a fire sale at the trade deadline last season, but David survived, as did several of the core pieces of the offense. On the one hand, David's production is likely to take a hit from lining up behind scrambling quarterback Lenard McRobinson and from probably having to play catchup more often than not thanks to an absolutely ravaged defense. On the other hand, David is the single brightest star on Honolulu's offense, and, between McRobinson and David, the Hahalua are likely to be fairly run heavy in S47. Rookie running back Fig Newton might be a bit of a speed bump, but David should operate as the clear lead back.
9) Anakin Skywalker -
Last season's finish: RB8
S46 went shockingly well for Baltimore as they largely rode the Skywalker-JHM tandem to a 12-4 record. Only Cape Town ran the ball more than the Hawks, and no team threw the ball less. With quarterback Preston Beatz and all of Baltimore's wide receivers now down below 700 TPE (!), it doesn't seem particularly likely that the Hawks will change that philosophy. This is good news for Skywalker's volume. It's also worth noting that Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin is fading hard from regression while Skywalker continues to rise. This is also good news for Skywalker as he looks to take a bigger lead in the backfield committee. Where the good news stops, though, is that it's extremely unlikely that an offense so devoid of TPE can find any sort of consistent success. Whatever offense Baltimore has will be on Skywalker's (and Harbinger-Marjin's) legs. I just worry about how much offense that will actually be.
10) Jeff Newman -
Last season's finish: RB11
Perhaps the strangest running back to rank this season, Newman's placement in my rankings has nothing to do with his actual running. Sure, he'll probably chip in to relieve starter Howard Coward on occasion, but Newman's biggest contribution is as a receiver. Newman currently sits at a higher TPE than either of Austin's actual receivers and was already functioning as the team's WR3 last season (108 targets vs 71 carries). I maintain my belief that Austin is likely to lean more into the running game given the TPE imbalance between the running and receiving weapons, but Jay Cue III still needs to throw the ball to someone. Will it be what's left of Delores Bickerman, the literal corpse of Zaphod Beeblebrox... or the still capable Jeff Newman? My money is on Newman getting enough targets to post another solid (if unspectacular) fantasy season.
11) Bertie Mannering-Phipps -
Last season's finish: RB16
The changing of the guard has come in Arizona. Longtime stalwart Danny Nedelko has finally ceded the starting role to up-and-comer Bertie Mannering-Phipps. Mind you, this does not mean BMP is going to get the Nedelko workhorse experience. Nedelko still exists, after all, and the Outlaws did call up yet another running back to join them (albeit mostly because they needed a WR3 after swapping Thomas Sutha to linebacker). Nevertheless, Arizona is notorious for leaning heavily into their running game and they still have enough talent there to make that strategy viable. BMP will be leading a committee backfield that should continue to lead the way for the Outlaws' offense.
12) Kit Fisto -
Last season's finish: RB13
No matter how fervent his fan base, Kit Fisto will not be a workhorse in San Jose. Fisto and Maple Dogwood are still neck-and-neck in TPE and will almost certainly be operating as a pure committee. What's more, if that little birdie I mentioned before was telling the truth, then it'll be a committee backfield splitting an awfully small pie as the Sabercats lean more heavily into their passing game. That all being said, San Jose's offense is really starting to look formidable. It's possible that there are enough scoring opportunities to support a solid fantasy season for Fisto despite all the hurdles in his way, and if San Jose returns to their S46 offensive ways then the volume might very well be there too.
13) Triceracop -
Last season's finish: OL2
Yes, you read that right. Everyone's favorite football-playing dinosaur has lost a bunch of weight and really worked on his hands. Formerly an offensive lineman, Triceracop will now operate as Chicago's lead running back after the team lost both of their backs from last season. However, this isn't a particularly glamorous position to be in. Chicago also called up rookie Corey Trevor, which means this will be a split backfield. Beyond that, the offense as a whole looks to be a bit short on TPE. Quarterback Painted Penguin is now below 900 TPE and the Butchers only have one receiver over 650. A bad offense with a split backfield isn't exactly a recipe for success, but at least Triceracop should be the leader of the backfield and find himself with a fair number of targets.
14) Willie Swaggert -
Last season's finish: N/A
After the retirement of Armor Queen, Berlin calls up rookie Willie Swaggert to fill her shoes. Immediately stepping in as the lead back over the inactive Kyle Bessey, Swaggert has a clear path to some respectable volume. Unfortunately, that volume is more than likely going to be skewed toward receiving volume. Berlin clearly has more TPE in the passing game than running game, so it's unlikely they break from their pass heavy philosophy of recent seasons. Swaggert will probably be involved a fair bit in the passing game if Queen is anything to go by, but a lower TPE rookie also might not have quite the same upside as the veteran Queen did.
15) Danny Nedelko -
Last season's finish: RB12
Like I said above, BMP might be the newly minted lead back for Arizona, but Nedelko ain't dead yet. Arizona always leans heavily into their running game, so even being the RB2 in a committee shouldn't completely torpedo Nedelko's fantasy value. Regression and retirement will claim Nedelko eventually, but it is not this day.
16) Maple Dogwood -
Last season's finish: RB14
Copy the blurb above for Kit Fisto, paste it here for Maple Dogwood. The primary difference between the two backs is that Fisto is out-earning Dogwood by a decent margin. They're currently almost identical in TPE, but it shouldn't be long before Fisto starts pulling ahead. Still, an even timeshare in what should be a good overall offense isn't the worst thing. Just have to hope San Jose runs the ball at a similar rate as last season.
17) Swamp Maiden -
Last season's finish: RB20
Despite the collection of offensive talent Colorado has managed to amass over the seasons, they've really struggled to put up anything decent in terms of fantasy production. This is doubly so for the running backs as the Yeti have broadly preferred to throw the ball over running it. Still, there isn't much left to the passing game in S47. Sure, Wolfie McDummy Jr is an excellent QB and National Treasure is a maxed out receiver, but their next best receiving weapon is a regression ravaged NCADV RAINN? Maiden will have to navigate a split backfield with Hercules Henry, but there's an opportunity here to pick up some more looks in an offense desperately seeking playmakers.
18) Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin -
Last season's finish: RB15
JHM is standing on his last legs, operating as the RB2 in an offense that probably isn't going to be all that good. So why rank him at all? Because whatever Baltimore's offense does manage to achieve will be on the backs of JHM and Skywalker. Skywalker may be the lead back, but JHM will see plenty of looks just by virtue of Skywalker occasionally needing to take a breather in what will certainly be a run heavy attack. If you can accept a lack of significant upside, JHM offers a very safe floor.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Due to the lack of tight ends in the league, the tight end roster slot has been converted to a TE/WR flex slot. As a result, I have combined the wide receivers and tight ends in my rankings.
1) National Treasure -
Last season's finish: WR4
This ranking comes down to two points; Colorado isn't nicknamed the Yeeti for nothing, and who else is Wolfie McDummy Jr going to throw to? There is a chance that Colorado starts to lean a little more run heavy as every single receiving weapon on the roster except for Treasure regresses into oblivion, but that same regression has left Treasure as the only true weapon in the offense. The volume is there, the talent is there, the role is there. Treasure should light up the scoreboard.
2) Hank Mardukas -
Last season's finish: WR3
Mardukas is not without risk here. No one else in New Orleans is quite on Mardukas's level in terms of TPE, but that doesn't mean there is no competition for targets. Kyle Crane being a nearly maxed out running back throws a wrench in the gears as well since it means NOLA could decide to run the ball a bit more often. As it stands, though, the Second Line consistently trot out one of the most pass heavy offenses in the league, featuring Mardukas as the lead receiver. As long as this remains true, Mardukas will be a safe fantasy asset with plenty of upside.
3) Benji Aguilera -
Last season's finish: WR2
Despite being attached to the run heavy Outlaws, Aguilera managed to pad his fantasy stats with absurd efficiency across the board. Generally speaking, such efficiency is difficult to maintain. However, Aguilera might be in a unique position to keep it up for at least a little longer. Aguilera himself is a maxed out receiver, well ahead of WR2 Jordan Bamford, and defenses are more likely to key in on the Outlaws' rushing attack than passing game given their reputation. With no other receivers on the roster after Thomas Sutha's swap to linebacker, Aguilera is primed to continue to attract pretty much all of Donovan Winters III's attention when Arizona does pass the ball.
4) Keanu Calhoun -
Last season's finish: WR18
Don't let that WR18 finish from last season fool you. Calhoun finished last season 9th in yards and 7th in catches. What dragged him down was a passing game that produced just 18 touchdowns, worst in the league. Even if San Jose changes nothing about their offense, that number alone should improve enough to raise Calhoun substantially in the fantasy rankings. And if the Sabercats decide to pass more as well? Look out.
5) Emile Charles -
Last season's finish: WR1
By most accounts, Charles should be able to continue to build on their WR1 finish from last season. Their primary competition for targets was traded away and their veteran running back retired. Charles has a clear path to dominate targets for the pass happy Fire Salamanders. Just one problem, though; new quarterback Tua TurnDaBallOva is a rookie. Granted, Tua comes up with pretty respectable TPE for a rookie quarterback, but it is a consideration since he'll be missing the experience factor that Adrian St. Christmas and Nova Montagne had. Still, there's little reason to believe Berlin will suddenly go run heavy, so even if the efficiency isn't so great Charles will at least get volume.
6) Bread Bowl -
Last season's finish: ~WR3
The first of our only handful of tight ends. Accounting for the new scoring system, Bread Bowl would have finished as the WR3 last season (or WR4, accounting for fellow tight end Mister Hogmally). Reaching that height again might be tricky as Orange County's passing game can't really go any higher in volume and there's a lot of competition for targets, but Bowl only continues to improve in TPE. With the new boost to receiving points for tight ends, Bowl should still be relevant in the Flex tight end era.
7) Nick Williams -
Last season's finish: WR13
On a personal note here, THANK GOD WE FINALLY GOT A WR1! Now then, Yellowknife bias aside, Williams is poised for a strong season. The Wraiths aren't the most pass happy team in the league by any stretch, but they aren't a run first team either. There's plenty of volume to support strong fantasy production for a maxed out receiver like Williams, especially because there's no real competition for targets. His greatest threats for the primary receiver role are tight end Detective Crashmore and running back Money Tolliver, both of whom just hit regression this season. Williams will be fed.
8) Sean Robinson -
Last season's finish: WR8
Many of the notes made above about Nick Williams also apply here for Sean Robinson. Robinson's competition for targets primarily consists of a pair of old, washed up receivers, so when New York passes the ball it's most likely going Robinson's way. However, whereas the Wraiths are likely to see at least a slight uptick in passing volume, the Silverbacks' signing of fullback Leandre Diarra would indicate they're likely heading the other direction. Still, it's unlikely that New York becomes a pure running team, so Robinson should have enough volume to once again produce a solid fantasy season.
9) Big McLarge Huge -
Last season's finish: WR12
It's truly baffling how Huge could be the WR1 for such a powerhouse offense that led the league in pass attempts and only manage a WR12 finish. I feel like I've done this with many players over the years, but it shouldn't happen twice in a row, right? There is some concern that Huge has entered regression so his ceiling might already be fading, but he's still set to be the WR1 for what should be a juggernaut of an offense. If Orange County can just patch up whatever slowed them down last season, the production will be there.
10) Sem'ga Nah'sim -
Last season's finish: WR9
There are a few competing narratives going on with Chicago this season. Narratives in Nah'sim's favor include the Butchers backfield now consisting of a converted offensive lineman and a rookie; a distinct lack of serious receiving competition in Chicago's receiving corps; and a strong likelihood that the Butchers will be trailing for most of the season, leading to more pass heavy game scripts. Narratives working against Nah'sim include a strong likelihood of the Butchers' offense just being generally bad and quarterback Painted Penguin being deep in regression. It seems to me that most of these competing narratives should balance out, leaving Nah'sim with more or less what he had last season; a stranglehold on whatever passing production the Butchers do manage to dig up, which should be decent (albeit largely be inefficient) volume.
11) Detective Crashmore -
Last season's finish: ~WR9
The second tight end on our board. Crashmore is unlikely to live up to his own lofty standards of the last few seasons, both because the Wraiths brought in an actual WR1 and because of regression starting to chew away at his TPE. Nevertheless, Crashmore remains one of the top receiving threats on the Yellowknife roster. At least, enough of a receiving threat that the boost to tight end scoring should keep him relevant for fantasy.
12) Delores Bickerman -
Last season's finish: WR6
Bickerman doesn't have much left in the tank, but she's here for the same reason I had Jeff Newman ranked reasonably highly among running backs; someone has to catch the ball. Jay Cue III is a solid QB, and clearly the Copperheads figured out some sort of dark magic ritual to make what's left of their receiving corps work for them. With Zaphod Beeblebrox - the only other wide receiver on the roster - already claiming retirement, Bickerman has a clear path to at least be Austin's WR1.
13) Sam Mercury -
Last season's finish: WR20
There appears to be a changing of the guard in store for Sarasota. Mercury has eclipsed Johnny Blaze Jr. in TPE. Admittedly the gap is pretty small, so it wouldn't surprise me if Sarasota kept Blaze Jr in their WR1 slot (in which case, substitute Blaze Jr in here for Mercury). Assuming Mercury takes over as the Sailfish WR1, he does have to contend with a team seemingly interested in changing its offensive identity. For as long as I can remember, Sarasota was one of the more pass happy teams in the league. With the passing game fading to regression, though, the Sailfish appear to be leaning more into rising star running back Ace Anderson. Obviously this isn't exactly great news for Mercury. That being said, the Sailfish absolutely will not abandon the pass, so Mercury will still see plenty of volume as Sarasota's presumptive WR1.
14) Eli Prince -
Last season's finish: WR7
There have been occasions throughout my time of tracking ISFL fantasy production where receivers who are clearly lining up as the WR3 on their teams randomly pop off for spectacular seasons. I have a working theory as to what might lead to this, and that theory is what led me to believe Prince has a chance to repeat his success from last season. The theory is this; the shotgun formations in the sim often have the WR3 running deep routes. Due to sim shenanigans, these deep balls are caught at a higher rate than they probably should be. If you have a receiver fast enough to burn the DB on these deep routes, then these catches turn into long touchdowns at a way higher rate than expected. Mind you, this is an extremely risky pick. Prince is unquestionably the WR3 for New Orleans, and there is a risk that the Second Line could always take their foot off the gas and rely more on their running game. By any conventional wisdom Prince shouldn't even be listed on this board. But I'm curious. So here he is.
15) Diego Lopez de Castilla -
Last season's finish: WR34
Much like Eli Prince above, de Castilla finds himself as the WR3 of an extremely pass happy offense. He's also fast with good hands. If I'm going in on this theory of mine, I'm going all in. I have Prince ranked way higher than he should be, so I'll rank Castilla way higher than he should be too. Obviously this is an extremely risky pick, but the conditions are right for another WR3 explosion in Orange County.
16) Jordan Bamford -
Last season's finish: WR10
Another beneficiary of Arizona's ridiculously efficient passing game, Bamford now finds himself squarely positioned as the WR2 after Thomas Sutha's swap to linebacker. As has been mentioned several times above with regard to the Outlaws passing game, Bamford's ceiling is limited thanks to Arizona's propensity to favor the running game. If they can maintain their efficiency, though, there's still the possibility of another 1k yards, 10 TD season for Bamford.
17) Thomas Passarelli -
Last season's finish: WR14
For what it's worth, this is likely Passarelli's floor. It assumes that Eli Prince lives up to my theory of "fast WR3 on a pass happy offense", which will limit Passarelli's production. That being said, if my theory is incorrect (honestly the more likely scenario), then Passarelli will be the clear WR2 of one of the most pass happy offenses in the league. That's worth something a lot more than WR17. Noteworthy if you don't buy into my theory.
18) Kairo Knight -
Last season's finish: WR25
In almost any other situation in the league, Knight would almost certainly be a top 10 receiver at minimum. So of course he's in Cape Town. Between running back Nakiri Ayame and running quarterback Thor Bollrsveifla, the Crash really prefer running the ball over throwing it. To make matters worse, even when they do throw the ball they're pushing it hard to Ayame, which limits the already small target share for Knight even further. The one bit of potential upside Knight has is that he's one of the highest TPE wide receivers in the league, and Bollrsveifla is only getting better. There won't be much volume, but the hope is the Knight has the talent to turn the small volume into big plays.
19) Orange Julius -
Last season's finish: WR35
Remember what I said above about Eli Prince and Diego Lopez de Castilla being a litmus tests of my working theory about what makes WR3's randomly pop off? Well, here's exhibit number three for S47. Julius is a 100 speed receiver with decent hands currently slated to play WR3 for San Jose. The Sabercats are theoretically going to be much more pass happy this season, which probably means a fair number of shotgun sets that Julius should be able to feast on. Much like Prince and Castilla, this is a major risk. Julius is the WR3 for San Jose, after all. But I want to test my theory, and the best way to do that is to put it on paper. If Julius is the next random WR3 to go off unexpectedly, you won't want to miss out.
20) Speedy Gizmo -
Last season's finish: WR29
Gizmo is in basically the same situation as Kairo Knight, except with lower TPE all around. Honolulu will almost certainly feature a run heavy attack between scrambling quarterback Lenard McRobinson and star running back Stetson David, leaving little chance of volume for the receivers. Even when they do throw, low TPE scrambling quarterbacks are not known for being particularly good passers. The only real potential that Gizmo has is that they're clearly Honolulu's top receiver, so whenever they do throw it's likely going Gizmo's way.
21) Shane Turnbull -
Last season's finish: WR17
To be honest, there isn't much upside for Turnbull. He's rather deep in regression, as is his quarterback. Baltimore figures to be an excessively run heavy team as well, leaving little hope for either of volume or efficiency in the passing game. That being said, someone has to catch passes from what's left of Preston Beatz, and Turnbull is unquestionably the WR1 for the Hawks. It's not much, but it's honest work.
22) Pitter Patter -
Last season's finish: N/A
Unsurprisingly for a rookie, Patter is a little low on the TPE scale. He's also well behind Berlin's WR1 Emile Charles. However, the Fire Salamanders figure to air the ball out plenty, which hopefully means there will be enough targets for Patter to get a fair number of scraps. With enough volume, anything is possible.
23) Johnny Blaze Jr -
Last season's finish: WR28
As noted above, it is entirely possible that Blaze will continue to line up as the WR1 over Sam Mercury. If that is the case, then you can pretty much just flip my rankings of Blaze and Mercury. Under the assumption that Blaze has fallen to WR2 status, however, Sarasota's attempts at leaning more run heavy have not gone unnoticed. Granted, they aren't going to suddenly turn into a run early/run often team, but the fact that they aren't likely to be among the league leaders in pass attempts going forward is noteworthy. Specifically, it does limit the potential ceiling of their WR2.
24) Mister Hogmally -
Last season's finish: ~WR3
There's a few assumptions I'm making in this ranking. First of all, there's the assumption that Colorado continues to yeet the ball. Second, the assumption that Hogmally will continue to feature as a receiver despite the severe toll of regression. Third, the assumption that Hogmally plays ahead of fellow Colorado tight end La'Fluke Paris-Johnson, who now has more TPE than Hogmally. However, if all three of these assumptions are true... well, you can see how Hogmally performed last season under the new scoring. Tight ends have some big time upside if they're actually used.
Offensive Linemen
1) Walrus Jones -
Last season's finish: OL1
The Otters did indeed increase their pass rate as I predicted last season. However, they increased it by way more than I predicted. I never saw Orange County leading the league in pass attempts. Unsurprisingly, their left tackle Walrus Jones was one of the major beneficiaries of this change, cruising to an easy OL1 finish. Jones does have regression to contend with along with his archetype being suboptimal for fantasy purposes, but being the high TPE left tackle for one of the most pass happy teams in the league cures a lot of ailments.
2) Kelijah Verwae -
Last season's finish: OL8
Verwae's lack of TPE last season clearly hurt. Verwae boasts the mauler archetype that's ideal for fantasy, played left tackle, and was on the second most pass happy team in the league. Another season of experience and TPE should do Verwae some good. I expect significant improvement in S47.
3) Klaus von Reinherz -
Last season's finish: OL3
And on the other side of the the TPE issue, you have Reinherz. Reinherz was also left tackle, but for a team that threw the ball considerably less than NOLA and played at a lower TPE. Sim gonna sim. Nevertheless, Reinherz is set up well for another strong performance in S47 so long as the Yeti continue to throw at least as much as they have been.
4) Bruce Talis -
Last season's finish: OL10
Yet another projection based only on the words of a little birdie. If San Jose does indeed intend to pump up the pass rate this season, then their left tackle stands to benefit greatly. The one hangup I have here is that Talis is an athletic archetype lineman, which tends not to be as good for fantasy purposes.
5) Fortified Fridge -
Last season's finish: OL6
Maybe it was the regression finally getting to him, but Fridge certainly underperformed expectations last season. Of course, maybe this should have been our expectation all along. After all, it's pretty well established that offensive linemen get better numbers when their teams pass more, and Arizona certainly doesn't pass much. Still, Fridge is a high TPE, mauler archetype left tackle. He'll be fine.
6) Great Khali -
Last season's finish: OL4
Khali benefitted greatly from Austin unexpectedly airing it out a bit last season. As unlikely as that outcome was last season, it's even more unlikely now. Austin does not have a single receiver over 700 TPE, and that includes running back Jeff Newman functioning as their WR3. The Copperheads should be running more this season, which probably means a drop in production for Khali.
7) Bengal Tigerheart -
Last season's finish: OL15
Here's where the major break point is for offensive linemen. It's well known that left tackles are far and away the best fantasy assets out there, so it says something when I have a right tackle listed here. Granted, I don't really think Tigerheart will actually finish as the OL7 (sim gonna sim, which especially goes for largely random positions like offensive line), but the fact remains that Tigerheart is a reasonably high TPE, mauler archetype lineman on a very pass happy team. That's enough to make him somewhat safe (at least, as safe as a right tackle can be).
8) Remi Musgrave-Smythe -
Last season's finish: OL7
And another right tackle. Notably, I do have RMS ranked below Tigerheart primarily due to Arizona's tendency to be far more run heavy, but otherwise everything I said above applies here too. I'm sure some random left tackle will end up outperforming RMS this season, but I can't even begin to imagine which one. None are anywhere near RMS in terms of TPE.
Kickers
My usual disclaimer; kickers are largely products of the teams around them, being entirely reliant on the rest of the team to even get them scoring opportunities. As a result, my number one criteria for ranking kickers is the offense they're attached to. I only use kicker TPE as a tiebreaker for when I think a few offenses are reasonably close in potency. With that in mind, here are my kicker rankings.
1) King Leonidas I - - Last season's finish: N/A
2) Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison - - Last season's finish: K4
3) Jack Sloth - - Last season's finish: K7
4) Booter McGavin - - Last season's finish: K12
5) Bob Kickerson - - Last season's finish: K11
6) Wing Wang - - Last season's finish: K8
7) Zenzeroni Xystarch II - - Last season's finish: K10
8) Swantavius King - - Last season's finish: K9
Defensive Linemen
1) Lionel Scrimmage -
Last season's finish: DL1
I thought Dub Redd was going to be the primary defensive lineman for the Silverbacks last season, so I actually didn't even have Scrimmage ranked. Thankfully Redd swapped over to linebacker this offseason, which clears the path for Scrimmage to repeat as the DL1. And it's a pretty clear path, too. Other than Dub Redd himself, there isn't another soul in New York's front seven over 500 TPE. Scrimmage is going to win that race into the backfield just about every time.
2) Clint Mustache -
Last season's finish: DL4
One of the things I've learned about fantasy defensive line is that defensive ends simply do not perform as well as defensive tackles in the 3-4 base defense that the league loves to use so much. However, that doesn't mean they are incapable of performing well. Mustache is the clear lynchpin of the Fire Salamanders' front seven, with only linebacker Mike Gesicki even in the same ballpark in terms of TPE. It was enough to overcome the league's anti-DE bias last season, and I think it'll be enough this season as well.
3) Alex Armstrong -
Last season's finish: DL6
Another defensive end at number three! With former MVP Cruella de Ville getting hammered by regression, Armstrong's only real peer in San Jose's front seven is linebacker DJ Maclean. It's not quite an ideal setup, but with only one major competitor for disrupting opponents' backfields Armstrong should find himself with plenty of fantasy production.
4) MC Hammer -
Last season's finish: DL2
Hammer had a good run, but the regression monster comes for everyone eventually. No one really stands out as the clear leader of Baltimore's front seven anymore. Hammer holds a slight advantage over the rest of his competition given his marginal TPE advantage and not marginal experience advantage, but don't be surprised if he's unable to maintain his previous level of production.
5) Sir Tywrell Xah'Aarwone -
Last season's finish: DL5
While Xah'Aawrone does have a stranglehold on the production of Arizona's defensive line, he now has to contend with two linebackers at around 900 TPE after Thomas Sutha swapped over from wide receiver. There should still be plenty of production to go around, but Xah'Aawrone is unlikely to reclaim his peak from a few seasons ago.
6) Bruce White -
Last season's finish: DL7
Talk about a stacked front seven. Bruce White is good. Very good. And he'll be lining up in the coveted RDT slot in NOLA's 3-4 defense. However, the advantages all those traits provide lose some luster when he's got another maxed out defensive linemen lining up opposite him along with a slew of solid linebackers behind him. This New Orleans front seven is likely to be a wrecking ball in S47, but there may be too many mouths to feed for White to truly shine.
7) Carly Rae Jensen -
Last season's finish: DL12
Jensen certainly underperformed last season, and it's not going to get much easier now that regression is really taking a bite out of her TPE. However, Jensen remains the best player on Austin's defensive line, and there's only one linebacker who poses a serious threat to steal production. Jensen probably won't relive her glory days, but I expect at least something of a bounce back from last season's disappointing finish.
8) Mo Gago -
Last season's finish: DL3
Speaking of the regression monster, Gago's reign of terror may finally be coming to and end. On top of no longer being the highest TPE player on Yellowknife's defensive line, the Wraiths' top two linebackers are catching up quickly. Gago will be facing serious competition for backfield disruption for the first time in a long time.
Linebackers
1) Maxwell Friedman -
Last season's finish: LB6
Amidst the chaos of Honolulu's fire sale last season, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that they still have a few solid players scattered around their roster. Friedman is absolutely one of them. More importantly, the nearly maxed out Friedman is the only member of Honolulu's front seven over 450 TPE. Friedman is going to the guy for the Hahalua.
2) Dub Redd -
Last season's finish: DL8
Redd swaps over to linebacker from defensive line for the S47 campaign, and should find success for much the same reason I expect teammate Lionel Scrimmage to find success; their only real competition for production is each other. New York's front seven is horrendously devoid of talent, which means if anyone is going to make it to the backfield it's going to be Redd or Scrimmage.
3) DJ Maclean -
Last season's finish: LB5
Cruella de Ville's reign as the linebacker supreme appears to finally be coming to an end as regression really starts to take its toll. Already filling the void is DJ Maclean, who managed to post a top 6 finish even while technically playing second fiddle to de Ville last season. With this linebacking corps fully in his hands now, Maclean is poised to reach even greater heights.
4) Crasher Wake -
Last season's finish: LB4
The best way I can describe Wake's situation in S47 is that he checks all the boxes you want out of your stud fantasy linebacker, but only half-heartedly. He is the highest TPE player in Austin's front seven... barely. He does outpace his fellow linebackers in TPE... but none of the others are that far behind. Still, even if he doesn't emphatically check every box, he still checks every box. He'll do just fine.
5) John Stark VIII -
Last season's finish: LB17
This one involves a bit of projection. Teammate Sim Sunigh has been a dominant fantasy force for several seasons now. However, Sunigh just got hit by regression hard enough for Stark to take a noticeable TPE lead. The competition among Orange County's linebackers is stiff, but there's not much of a defensive line to compete with. With Stark presumably taking over the Otters' top linebacker spot, my guess is that he'll live up to the standard Sunigh has been setting.
6) Waylen Greene -
Last season's finish: LB10
Greene was actually beat out by teammate Donte Darius last season. Surprising, given the TPE disparity between the pair. This season it appears that Greene's greatest competition is going to come from fellow linebacker Federico Americano. Regardless of how that shakes out, though, Colorado simply doesn't have much of a defensive line for their linebackers to compete with. All of them should do pretty well.
7) Mike Gesicki -
Last season's finish: LB9
While defensive end Clint Mustache is the leader of Berlin's front seven, Gesicki isn't far behind. More importantly, the TPE gap between Gesicki and Mustache is much smaller than the gap between Gesicki and anyone else. Gesicki himself could use a little more TPE before we should really expect a leap to the next level, but he's already in good position to be fantasy relevant.
8) Rolud Onyxgut -
Last season's finish: LB7
Onyxgut is one of the highest TPE linebackers in the league, and there are really only two other members of Cape Town's front seven who pose any sort of threat to Onyxgut's potential production. Unfortunately, those other two players are right on his heels. With production split three ways, it may be tough for Onyxgut to improve from "fantasy relevant" to "fantasy stud".
Defensive Backs
1) Jamdrian LeBayers -
Last season's finish: DB4
The Otters boast a potent offense and the best linebacker corps in the league. When other teams are likely to have a difficult time running against you and incentive to pass anyway, the elite CB1 is going to have some chances to make some plays.
2) Legs McMillion -
Last season's finish: DB2
Honestly there is no good way to attack the Crash's defense. They have elite playmakers at every level. However, the offense is still extremely potent, which means opponents will be incentivized to pass in order to keep up. McMillion has already proved to be capable, so just doing more of the same likely means another strong fantasy finish.
3) Benjamin Duvernay -
Last season's finish: DB5
As always, Arizona's offense figures to be among the best in the league. With Duvernay now hitting peak TPE for his career, he's well positioned to feast on opponents' desperation to keep pace with the Outlaws' offense.
4) Fronky Fresh -
Last season's finish: DB3
Sarasota's offensive identity might be a tad in flux going into S47, but that doesn't mean it'll be bad. The Sailfish still boast plenty of talent to give opposing defenses fits, which means opposing offenses will need to pass a bit more to keep up. On top of that, Sarasota clearly has more strength overall in their front seven than they do in their secondary. Teams will be doubly incentivized to throw, which means more opportunities for CB1 Fresh.
5) Billy Jor-El -
Last season's finish: DB14
New Orleans' situation in the secondary is a bit odd, but the important thing here is that Jor-El will be their CB1. With a ferocious front seven that will punish any rush attempts and a powerhouse offense that should turn most games into shootouts, Jor-El should find plenty of targets coming his way.
6) Blacksmith Andre -
Last season's finish: DB46
There's some ambiguity here for San Jose. Andre has a not insignificant TPE lead over teammate Brooks Piggott, but Piggott has that sweet, sweet experience advantage. My assumption here is that Andre will be the CB1, but if it looks like that isn't the case then Piggott can slide in nicely into this slot instead. The bottom line is that Piggott finished as the DB8 last season filling the Sabercats' CB1 role, and San Jose figures to turn more games into shootouts this season with an improved passing game. Whoever the CB1 is will certainly be fantasy relevant.
7) The Riddler -
Last season's finish: DB6
It took a while for the Silverbacks to really hit their stride last season, but they really showed what they could do when they finally did. The Riddler is hitting his peak TPE this season, so as long as New York can maintain their offensive effectiveness from last season then The Riddler should continue to be a relevant name for fantasy.
8) Kadarius Claypool II -
Last season's finish: DB9
With the addition of wide receiver Nick Williams, the Wraiths' offense might actually start producing some more high scoring games. Perfectly times for Claypool's peak TPE season.
Notable Omissions:
Heiiajs D. Owidhuse - - Last season's finish: DB1
While it is true that Owidhuse is coming off back to back DB1 finishes, I honestly couldn't explain to you why that is. He hadn't been that high in TPE before this season (with cornerback being one of the most reliant positions on TPE to actually be good), and it's not like Chicago has been forcing people to pass. Their offense has been decidedly mid, and their front seven really hasn't been good enough to justify attacking their defense exclusively through the air. Neither of those issues are likely to improve this season. Is it possible for Owidhuse to be elite once again? Sure, especially since I have no idea why he's been elite in the first place. It's hard to place my faith in such an outcome, though, when doing so violates pretty much every guideline I've observed of what makes a DB good for fantasy.
If you're in it for my spin on the narratives as well as the rankings, then read on!
Quarterbacks
1) Thor Bollrsveifla -
Last season's finish: QB1
I was tentatively optimistic about Thor last season. In the ISFL, much like in real life, scrambling quarterbacks are something of a cheat code for fantasy. The main worry with Thor came down to the fact that scrambling quarterbacks are notoriously poor passers in the ISFL and he was pretty low TPE coming into his rookie season. Luckily for Thor, the weapons around him were quite possibly the best in the league. Admittedly S46 was something of a down season in terms of quarterback scoring (no quarterback broke 300 points), but Thor was the QB1 nevertheless thanks to his legs and a little help from the elite talent around him. His surrounding weapons are still elite entering S47 and Thor himself is quickly getting better. He should only get better from here.
2) Lenard McRobinson -
Last season's finish: QB14
Thor did great as a rookie, so why not McRobinson? Admittedly McRobinson's weapons aren't quite as good as Thor's were, but you may be surprised to learn that Honolulu's offense is not actually barren of talent, despite how severe their selloff last season appeared. They still have a good running back, they still have a solid WR1, and they still have a decent WR2. Granted, the WR1 and WR2 are both on the trade block, but those players are still on the Hahalua roster as of this writing. Bottom line: running QB go brrrrr.
3) Lloyd Bannings -
Last season's finish: QB4
Bannings was surprisingly inefficient last season, which really puts into perspective just how good Orange County's offense is. Bannings himself is one of the highest TPE quarterbacks in the league. His receivers are all in the ballpark of 1k TPE. His running back is one of the best in the league. His situation is so good that being QB4 last season was actually something of a disappointment. His situation hasn't changed much, and he can't really be any more inefficient. The Otters have a juggernaut offense, and Bannings should easily roll to another solid fantasy season in S47.
4) Octavian Speedings -
Last season's finish: QB3
To be perfectly honest, I'm not quite sure why New Orleans has been as pass happy as they have. Yes, they have a very good quarterback and good receivers. They also have a very good running back. You'd think a more balanced offense would benefit them. Nevertheless, the Second Line have exhibited a strong trend toward being an excessively pass happy team, which means Speedings is likely to continue to be among the leaders in pass attempts in S47. High volume plus high TPE usually leads to pretty strong fantasy numbers. To be perfectly honest, though, even if NOLA took their foot off the gas a little, Speedings and his weapons still have the TPE to produce a highly efficient passing attack. Speedings should be a safe fantasy quarterback regardless of how New Orleans decides to approach their offensive philosophy this season.
5) Josh Patterson -
Last season's finish: QB13
I came out last season in full support of a Josh Patterson breakout. It made sense, given that the Sabercats had a good QB-WR tandem and a mediocre pair of running backs. Clearly that didn't materialize. Kit Fisto fever took over the Sabercats as San Jose fell just shy of 600 pass attempts, only good for 9th in the league. So what changed this season that led me to keep Patterson in the QB1 territory of my rankings despite an abysmal stat line in S46? Well, for starters, I'm stubborn and the numbers make it look like San Jose should pass the ball more. Personal bias aside, though, I've been informed by a little birdy that the Sabercats will indeed commit more to the pass this season. We'll see how well they stick to that commitment, but on paper it makes sense, especially after trading for Florida Man at the trade deadline last season. Patterson has a chance to go wheels up in the passing game.
6) Donovan Winters III -
Last season's finish: QB5
There's no questioning the efficiency of the Outlaws' offense. Only the volume. Despite boasting one of the highest TPE quarterbacks in the league along with one of the deeper receiving corps, Arizona opted to lean into their comparatively low TPE running game. Obviously it works for their success as a team, but won't they think of the poor fantasy implications? Arizona being Arizona, there's little reason to believe a shift in offensive philosophy is coming. The Outlaws' offense will continue to be efficient as always, but a lack of volume will limit Winters' fantasy ceiling.
7) Wolfie McDummy Jr -
Last season's finish: QB10
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third...fourth...I've lost track of how many times I've pumped up McDummy Jr only to be disappointed by his fantasy performance. Truthfully I'm baffled. The Yeti have long had a pass-centric offense featuring much better talent in the passing game than running game. So why can't Wolfie post a better fantasy stat line? Your guess is as good as mine. However, even my eternal optimism has its limits. McDummy is still among the highest TPE quarterbacks in the league, but his receiving corps is really starting to lose its depth. On top of that, the Yeti actually have a pair of solid running backs now. Recent lack of passing success combined with a shift in offensive balance has really sapped my optimism for a good fantasy season moving forward.
8) Maximus Boudreaux -
Last season's finish: QB9
Despite what Money Tolliver's numbers would have you believe, the Wraiths were actually pretty middle of the pack in pass attempts last season. It may not have been the most explosive passing game in the league (8th in pass attempts, 11th in passing yards), but Boudreaux put together a solid stat line for a largely dink-and-dunk offense. Then the Wraiths brought in Nick Williams. Granted, it's not like the situation behind Williams has changed much, but just having that bona fide WR1 can do wonders for offensive success. This is still unlikely to be anything approaching an air raid offense, but just a bit more efficiency could easily push Boudreaux into fantasy relevance.
Notable Omissions:
Jay Cue III - - Last season's finish: QB2
Painted Penguin - - Last season's finish: QB6
That's right, I've dropped two of last season's top 6 quarterbacks out of the top 8 entirely in my rankings. The case against Painted Penguin is fairly easy to make. Penguin himself has regressed well below 1000 TPE and he's only left with one notable receiver (who is still just shy of 1k TPE himself). Penguin's fantasy production last season was boosted by a pass-centric verts offense (especially after trading Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin), but that doesn't seem like a viable strategy with what Chicago has left.
Jay Cue III's drop is likely more surprising, but then again so was his success last season. Cue managed to produce with heavily regressed receivers in S46, but can he do it again with regression hitting his weapons even harder? Wide receivers Delores Bickerman and Zaphod Beeblebrox both have one foot in the grave (quite literally, in Beeblebrox's case), and running back Jeff Newman isn't doing much better flexing out as Austin's WR3. Even if Cue maintains whatever black magic allowed him to produce so spectacularly with such mid weapons, it's unlikely he'll reach the same heights with just how much his weapons are regressing.
Running Backs
1) Frank Dux -
Last season's finish: RB3
Dux has been a fantasy mainstay for several seasons now, and he's showing no signs of letting up. Sure, Dux has hit a bit of regression, but so has the entire Silverback offense. As it stands, Dux appears to be the best part of New York's offense, which gives him a nice, safe floor. On top of that, New York went out and signed fullback Leandre Diarra, who has made it his mission to turn as many running backs as he can into 1st team All Pros. It worked for Ayame last season. There's a good chance it'll work for Dux this season.
2) Nakiri Ayame -
Last season' finish: RB2
Ayame is fresh off setting the scrimmage yard record, and even that couldn't win them the overall RB1 finish for fantasy. Ayame's life hasn't gotten any easier going into S47 either. QB Thor Bollrsveifla is a red zone menace in his own right and now there are two other running backs on the active roster. However, these complications shouldn't be any more than speed bumps for Ayame. Cape Town needed warm bodies as they only have two WRs on the active roster and no TEs, so the spare running backs are more likely to fill in those roles than they are to take away from Ayame's production. Furthermore, there's little reason to suspect any major uptick in pass attempts when the Crash still boast a scrambling quarterback alongside Ayame. Really, it's more accurate to view Ayame as the RB1b rather than RB2.
3) Reginald Shrubbery -
Last season's finish: RB1
And the last of the elite running back trio. Much like Ayame being more of the RB1b than RB2, Shrubbery is really more of the RB1c than RB3. All three have very legitimate cases to be the RB1 overall, and it's likely that these three will be the top fantasy running backs come the end of this season. So why would I put Shrubbery last among them after a dominating performance in S46? Gut feeling, mostly. I was actually quite surprised to see Shrubbery topping the running back fantasy charts last season despite residing in the second lowest rushing volume offense in the league. Obviously his receiving work had a lot to do with that, but will Orange County continue to use Shrubbery so heavily in the passing game? Remember, they have quite possibly the deepest receiving corps in the league with three receivers and a tight end all over 800 TPE. Shrubbery will still benefit from being the workhorse back in a good offense. Just be wary that the Otters' scheme is more fluid that most thanks to their well rounded offense giving them more options.
4) Howard Coward -
Last season's finish: RB7
As the rest of Austin's weapons fade due to regression, Coward's grip on the offense continues to tighten. What's more, he's got a solid fullback in Sean Aldrich plowing the way for him. It's difficult to believe the Copperheads will continue to rely on Jay Cue III's arm when Coward nearly has more TPE than any two other weapons in the offense put together. Austin's offense should operate through Coward's legs, which gives him some nice potential.
5) Ace Anderson -
Last season's finish: RB5
Hell has frozen over. The Sailfish ran the ball last season. I wasn't aware they knew how that worked. Jokes aside, Sarasota's newfound reliance on the running game faded over the course of the season in favor of their more traditional pass-based offense, but the fact remains that they made an effort to get Ace Anderson the ball more often. With Willier Miller fading quickly to regression, it seems likely that Anderson's workload is likely to increase moving forward. That's music to my ears for fantasy purposes.
6) Money Tolliver -
Last season's finish: RB4
The long time centerpiece of the Wraiths' offense is the latest victim to the theft that is regression. It's hardly the end of the line for the star running back, but it is notably the beginning of the end. Tolliver will continue to operate as the workhorse back for Yellowknife, but between his own regression and the arrival of wide receiver Nick Williams he may not be quite the offensive centerpiece we're used to him being.
7) Kyle Crane -
Last season's finish: RB6
To be clear, Crane absolutely has the potential to make it into the same tier as Reginald Shrubbery. Both are high TPE running backs in strong offenses. The potential is there. So why do I have Crane ranked lower? Because New Orleans seems to have an odd aversion to just letting Crane run. What's more, even if they do change up their offense and run more this season, there's now some competition in the backfield. Granted, Crane is still leagues ahead in TPE so it's unlikely to be anything approaching a true timeshare, but it is worth noting nevertheless.
8) Stetson David -
Last season's finish: RB10
The Hahalua had a fire sale at the trade deadline last season, but David survived, as did several of the core pieces of the offense. On the one hand, David's production is likely to take a hit from lining up behind scrambling quarterback Lenard McRobinson and from probably having to play catchup more often than not thanks to an absolutely ravaged defense. On the other hand, David is the single brightest star on Honolulu's offense, and, between McRobinson and David, the Hahalua are likely to be fairly run heavy in S47. Rookie running back Fig Newton might be a bit of a speed bump, but David should operate as the clear lead back.
9) Anakin Skywalker -
Last season's finish: RB8
S46 went shockingly well for Baltimore as they largely rode the Skywalker-JHM tandem to a 12-4 record. Only Cape Town ran the ball more than the Hawks, and no team threw the ball less. With quarterback Preston Beatz and all of Baltimore's wide receivers now down below 700 TPE (!), it doesn't seem particularly likely that the Hawks will change that philosophy. This is good news for Skywalker's volume. It's also worth noting that Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin is fading hard from regression while Skywalker continues to rise. This is also good news for Skywalker as he looks to take a bigger lead in the backfield committee. Where the good news stops, though, is that it's extremely unlikely that an offense so devoid of TPE can find any sort of consistent success. Whatever offense Baltimore has will be on Skywalker's (and Harbinger-Marjin's) legs. I just worry about how much offense that will actually be.
10) Jeff Newman -
Last season's finish: RB11
Perhaps the strangest running back to rank this season, Newman's placement in my rankings has nothing to do with his actual running. Sure, he'll probably chip in to relieve starter Howard Coward on occasion, but Newman's biggest contribution is as a receiver. Newman currently sits at a higher TPE than either of Austin's actual receivers and was already functioning as the team's WR3 last season (108 targets vs 71 carries). I maintain my belief that Austin is likely to lean more into the running game given the TPE imbalance between the running and receiving weapons, but Jay Cue III still needs to throw the ball to someone. Will it be what's left of Delores Bickerman, the literal corpse of Zaphod Beeblebrox... or the still capable Jeff Newman? My money is on Newman getting enough targets to post another solid (if unspectacular) fantasy season.
11) Bertie Mannering-Phipps -
Last season's finish: RB16
The changing of the guard has come in Arizona. Longtime stalwart Danny Nedelko has finally ceded the starting role to up-and-comer Bertie Mannering-Phipps. Mind you, this does not mean BMP is going to get the Nedelko workhorse experience. Nedelko still exists, after all, and the Outlaws did call up yet another running back to join them (albeit mostly because they needed a WR3 after swapping Thomas Sutha to linebacker). Nevertheless, Arizona is notorious for leaning heavily into their running game and they still have enough talent there to make that strategy viable. BMP will be leading a committee backfield that should continue to lead the way for the Outlaws' offense.
12) Kit Fisto -
Last season's finish: RB13
No matter how fervent his fan base, Kit Fisto will not be a workhorse in San Jose. Fisto and Maple Dogwood are still neck-and-neck in TPE and will almost certainly be operating as a pure committee. What's more, if that little birdie I mentioned before was telling the truth, then it'll be a committee backfield splitting an awfully small pie as the Sabercats lean more heavily into their passing game. That all being said, San Jose's offense is really starting to look formidable. It's possible that there are enough scoring opportunities to support a solid fantasy season for Fisto despite all the hurdles in his way, and if San Jose returns to their S46 offensive ways then the volume might very well be there too.
13) Triceracop -
Last season's finish: OL2
Yes, you read that right. Everyone's favorite football-playing dinosaur has lost a bunch of weight and really worked on his hands. Formerly an offensive lineman, Triceracop will now operate as Chicago's lead running back after the team lost both of their backs from last season. However, this isn't a particularly glamorous position to be in. Chicago also called up rookie Corey Trevor, which means this will be a split backfield. Beyond that, the offense as a whole looks to be a bit short on TPE. Quarterback Painted Penguin is now below 900 TPE and the Butchers only have one receiver over 650. A bad offense with a split backfield isn't exactly a recipe for success, but at least Triceracop should be the leader of the backfield and find himself with a fair number of targets.
14) Willie Swaggert -
Last season's finish: N/A
After the retirement of Armor Queen, Berlin calls up rookie Willie Swaggert to fill her shoes. Immediately stepping in as the lead back over the inactive Kyle Bessey, Swaggert has a clear path to some respectable volume. Unfortunately, that volume is more than likely going to be skewed toward receiving volume. Berlin clearly has more TPE in the passing game than running game, so it's unlikely they break from their pass heavy philosophy of recent seasons. Swaggert will probably be involved a fair bit in the passing game if Queen is anything to go by, but a lower TPE rookie also might not have quite the same upside as the veteran Queen did.
15) Danny Nedelko -
Last season's finish: RB12
Like I said above, BMP might be the newly minted lead back for Arizona, but Nedelko ain't dead yet. Arizona always leans heavily into their running game, so even being the RB2 in a committee shouldn't completely torpedo Nedelko's fantasy value. Regression and retirement will claim Nedelko eventually, but it is not this day.
16) Maple Dogwood -
Last season's finish: RB14
Copy the blurb above for Kit Fisto, paste it here for Maple Dogwood. The primary difference between the two backs is that Fisto is out-earning Dogwood by a decent margin. They're currently almost identical in TPE, but it shouldn't be long before Fisto starts pulling ahead. Still, an even timeshare in what should be a good overall offense isn't the worst thing. Just have to hope San Jose runs the ball at a similar rate as last season.
17) Swamp Maiden -
Last season's finish: RB20
Despite the collection of offensive talent Colorado has managed to amass over the seasons, they've really struggled to put up anything decent in terms of fantasy production. This is doubly so for the running backs as the Yeti have broadly preferred to throw the ball over running it. Still, there isn't much left to the passing game in S47. Sure, Wolfie McDummy Jr is an excellent QB and National Treasure is a maxed out receiver, but their next best receiving weapon is a regression ravaged NCADV RAINN? Maiden will have to navigate a split backfield with Hercules Henry, but there's an opportunity here to pick up some more looks in an offense desperately seeking playmakers.
18) Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin -
Last season's finish: RB15
JHM is standing on his last legs, operating as the RB2 in an offense that probably isn't going to be all that good. So why rank him at all? Because whatever Baltimore's offense does manage to achieve will be on the backs of JHM and Skywalker. Skywalker may be the lead back, but JHM will see plenty of looks just by virtue of Skywalker occasionally needing to take a breather in what will certainly be a run heavy attack. If you can accept a lack of significant upside, JHM offers a very safe floor.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Due to the lack of tight ends in the league, the tight end roster slot has been converted to a TE/WR flex slot. As a result, I have combined the wide receivers and tight ends in my rankings.
1) National Treasure -
Last season's finish: WR4
This ranking comes down to two points; Colorado isn't nicknamed the Yeeti for nothing, and who else is Wolfie McDummy Jr going to throw to? There is a chance that Colorado starts to lean a little more run heavy as every single receiving weapon on the roster except for Treasure regresses into oblivion, but that same regression has left Treasure as the only true weapon in the offense. The volume is there, the talent is there, the role is there. Treasure should light up the scoreboard.
2) Hank Mardukas -
Last season's finish: WR3
Mardukas is not without risk here. No one else in New Orleans is quite on Mardukas's level in terms of TPE, but that doesn't mean there is no competition for targets. Kyle Crane being a nearly maxed out running back throws a wrench in the gears as well since it means NOLA could decide to run the ball a bit more often. As it stands, though, the Second Line consistently trot out one of the most pass heavy offenses in the league, featuring Mardukas as the lead receiver. As long as this remains true, Mardukas will be a safe fantasy asset with plenty of upside.
3) Benji Aguilera -
Last season's finish: WR2
Despite being attached to the run heavy Outlaws, Aguilera managed to pad his fantasy stats with absurd efficiency across the board. Generally speaking, such efficiency is difficult to maintain. However, Aguilera might be in a unique position to keep it up for at least a little longer. Aguilera himself is a maxed out receiver, well ahead of WR2 Jordan Bamford, and defenses are more likely to key in on the Outlaws' rushing attack than passing game given their reputation. With no other receivers on the roster after Thomas Sutha's swap to linebacker, Aguilera is primed to continue to attract pretty much all of Donovan Winters III's attention when Arizona does pass the ball.
4) Keanu Calhoun -
Last season's finish: WR18
Don't let that WR18 finish from last season fool you. Calhoun finished last season 9th in yards and 7th in catches. What dragged him down was a passing game that produced just 18 touchdowns, worst in the league. Even if San Jose changes nothing about their offense, that number alone should improve enough to raise Calhoun substantially in the fantasy rankings. And if the Sabercats decide to pass more as well? Look out.
5) Emile Charles -
Last season's finish: WR1
By most accounts, Charles should be able to continue to build on their WR1 finish from last season. Their primary competition for targets was traded away and their veteran running back retired. Charles has a clear path to dominate targets for the pass happy Fire Salamanders. Just one problem, though; new quarterback Tua TurnDaBallOva is a rookie. Granted, Tua comes up with pretty respectable TPE for a rookie quarterback, but it is a consideration since he'll be missing the experience factor that Adrian St. Christmas and Nova Montagne had. Still, there's little reason to believe Berlin will suddenly go run heavy, so even if the efficiency isn't so great Charles will at least get volume.
6) Bread Bowl -
Last season's finish: ~WR3
The first of our only handful of tight ends. Accounting for the new scoring system, Bread Bowl would have finished as the WR3 last season (or WR4, accounting for fellow tight end Mister Hogmally). Reaching that height again might be tricky as Orange County's passing game can't really go any higher in volume and there's a lot of competition for targets, but Bowl only continues to improve in TPE. With the new boost to receiving points for tight ends, Bowl should still be relevant in the Flex tight end era.
7) Nick Williams -
Last season's finish: WR13
On a personal note here, THANK GOD WE FINALLY GOT A WR1! Now then, Yellowknife bias aside, Williams is poised for a strong season. The Wraiths aren't the most pass happy team in the league by any stretch, but they aren't a run first team either. There's plenty of volume to support strong fantasy production for a maxed out receiver like Williams, especially because there's no real competition for targets. His greatest threats for the primary receiver role are tight end Detective Crashmore and running back Money Tolliver, both of whom just hit regression this season. Williams will be fed.
8) Sean Robinson -
Last season's finish: WR8
Many of the notes made above about Nick Williams also apply here for Sean Robinson. Robinson's competition for targets primarily consists of a pair of old, washed up receivers, so when New York passes the ball it's most likely going Robinson's way. However, whereas the Wraiths are likely to see at least a slight uptick in passing volume, the Silverbacks' signing of fullback Leandre Diarra would indicate they're likely heading the other direction. Still, it's unlikely that New York becomes a pure running team, so Robinson should have enough volume to once again produce a solid fantasy season.
9) Big McLarge Huge -
Last season's finish: WR12
It's truly baffling how Huge could be the WR1 for such a powerhouse offense that led the league in pass attempts and only manage a WR12 finish. I feel like I've done this with many players over the years, but it shouldn't happen twice in a row, right? There is some concern that Huge has entered regression so his ceiling might already be fading, but he's still set to be the WR1 for what should be a juggernaut of an offense. If Orange County can just patch up whatever slowed them down last season, the production will be there.
10) Sem'ga Nah'sim -
Last season's finish: WR9
There are a few competing narratives going on with Chicago this season. Narratives in Nah'sim's favor include the Butchers backfield now consisting of a converted offensive lineman and a rookie; a distinct lack of serious receiving competition in Chicago's receiving corps; and a strong likelihood that the Butchers will be trailing for most of the season, leading to more pass heavy game scripts. Narratives working against Nah'sim include a strong likelihood of the Butchers' offense just being generally bad and quarterback Painted Penguin being deep in regression. It seems to me that most of these competing narratives should balance out, leaving Nah'sim with more or less what he had last season; a stranglehold on whatever passing production the Butchers do manage to dig up, which should be decent (albeit largely be inefficient) volume.
11) Detective Crashmore -
Last season's finish: ~WR9
The second tight end on our board. Crashmore is unlikely to live up to his own lofty standards of the last few seasons, both because the Wraiths brought in an actual WR1 and because of regression starting to chew away at his TPE. Nevertheless, Crashmore remains one of the top receiving threats on the Yellowknife roster. At least, enough of a receiving threat that the boost to tight end scoring should keep him relevant for fantasy.
12) Delores Bickerman -
Last season's finish: WR6
Bickerman doesn't have much left in the tank, but she's here for the same reason I had Jeff Newman ranked reasonably highly among running backs; someone has to catch the ball. Jay Cue III is a solid QB, and clearly the Copperheads figured out some sort of dark magic ritual to make what's left of their receiving corps work for them. With Zaphod Beeblebrox - the only other wide receiver on the roster - already claiming retirement, Bickerman has a clear path to at least be Austin's WR1.
13) Sam Mercury -
Last season's finish: WR20
There appears to be a changing of the guard in store for Sarasota. Mercury has eclipsed Johnny Blaze Jr. in TPE. Admittedly the gap is pretty small, so it wouldn't surprise me if Sarasota kept Blaze Jr in their WR1 slot (in which case, substitute Blaze Jr in here for Mercury). Assuming Mercury takes over as the Sailfish WR1, he does have to contend with a team seemingly interested in changing its offensive identity. For as long as I can remember, Sarasota was one of the more pass happy teams in the league. With the passing game fading to regression, though, the Sailfish appear to be leaning more into rising star running back Ace Anderson. Obviously this isn't exactly great news for Mercury. That being said, the Sailfish absolutely will not abandon the pass, so Mercury will still see plenty of volume as Sarasota's presumptive WR1.
14) Eli Prince -
Last season's finish: WR7
There have been occasions throughout my time of tracking ISFL fantasy production where receivers who are clearly lining up as the WR3 on their teams randomly pop off for spectacular seasons. I have a working theory as to what might lead to this, and that theory is what led me to believe Prince has a chance to repeat his success from last season. The theory is this; the shotgun formations in the sim often have the WR3 running deep routes. Due to sim shenanigans, these deep balls are caught at a higher rate than they probably should be. If you have a receiver fast enough to burn the DB on these deep routes, then these catches turn into long touchdowns at a way higher rate than expected. Mind you, this is an extremely risky pick. Prince is unquestionably the WR3 for New Orleans, and there is a risk that the Second Line could always take their foot off the gas and rely more on their running game. By any conventional wisdom Prince shouldn't even be listed on this board. But I'm curious. So here he is.
15) Diego Lopez de Castilla -
Last season's finish: WR34
Much like Eli Prince above, de Castilla finds himself as the WR3 of an extremely pass happy offense. He's also fast with good hands. If I'm going in on this theory of mine, I'm going all in. I have Prince ranked way higher than he should be, so I'll rank Castilla way higher than he should be too. Obviously this is an extremely risky pick, but the conditions are right for another WR3 explosion in Orange County.
16) Jordan Bamford -
Last season's finish: WR10
Another beneficiary of Arizona's ridiculously efficient passing game, Bamford now finds himself squarely positioned as the WR2 after Thomas Sutha's swap to linebacker. As has been mentioned several times above with regard to the Outlaws passing game, Bamford's ceiling is limited thanks to Arizona's propensity to favor the running game. If they can maintain their efficiency, though, there's still the possibility of another 1k yards, 10 TD season for Bamford.
17) Thomas Passarelli -
Last season's finish: WR14
For what it's worth, this is likely Passarelli's floor. It assumes that Eli Prince lives up to my theory of "fast WR3 on a pass happy offense", which will limit Passarelli's production. That being said, if my theory is incorrect (honestly the more likely scenario), then Passarelli will be the clear WR2 of one of the most pass happy offenses in the league. That's worth something a lot more than WR17. Noteworthy if you don't buy into my theory.
18) Kairo Knight -
Last season's finish: WR25
In almost any other situation in the league, Knight would almost certainly be a top 10 receiver at minimum. So of course he's in Cape Town. Between running back Nakiri Ayame and running quarterback Thor Bollrsveifla, the Crash really prefer running the ball over throwing it. To make matters worse, even when they do throw the ball they're pushing it hard to Ayame, which limits the already small target share for Knight even further. The one bit of potential upside Knight has is that he's one of the highest TPE wide receivers in the league, and Bollrsveifla is only getting better. There won't be much volume, but the hope is the Knight has the talent to turn the small volume into big plays.
19) Orange Julius -
Last season's finish: WR35
Remember what I said above about Eli Prince and Diego Lopez de Castilla being a litmus tests of my working theory about what makes WR3's randomly pop off? Well, here's exhibit number three for S47. Julius is a 100 speed receiver with decent hands currently slated to play WR3 for San Jose. The Sabercats are theoretically going to be much more pass happy this season, which probably means a fair number of shotgun sets that Julius should be able to feast on. Much like Prince and Castilla, this is a major risk. Julius is the WR3 for San Jose, after all. But I want to test my theory, and the best way to do that is to put it on paper. If Julius is the next random WR3 to go off unexpectedly, you won't want to miss out.
20) Speedy Gizmo -
Last season's finish: WR29
Gizmo is in basically the same situation as Kairo Knight, except with lower TPE all around. Honolulu will almost certainly feature a run heavy attack between scrambling quarterback Lenard McRobinson and star running back Stetson David, leaving little chance of volume for the receivers. Even when they do throw, low TPE scrambling quarterbacks are not known for being particularly good passers. The only real potential that Gizmo has is that they're clearly Honolulu's top receiver, so whenever they do throw it's likely going Gizmo's way.
21) Shane Turnbull -
Last season's finish: WR17
To be honest, there isn't much upside for Turnbull. He's rather deep in regression, as is his quarterback. Baltimore figures to be an excessively run heavy team as well, leaving little hope for either of volume or efficiency in the passing game. That being said, someone has to catch passes from what's left of Preston Beatz, and Turnbull is unquestionably the WR1 for the Hawks. It's not much, but it's honest work.
22) Pitter Patter -
Last season's finish: N/A
Unsurprisingly for a rookie, Patter is a little low on the TPE scale. He's also well behind Berlin's WR1 Emile Charles. However, the Fire Salamanders figure to air the ball out plenty, which hopefully means there will be enough targets for Patter to get a fair number of scraps. With enough volume, anything is possible.
23) Johnny Blaze Jr -
Last season's finish: WR28
As noted above, it is entirely possible that Blaze will continue to line up as the WR1 over Sam Mercury. If that is the case, then you can pretty much just flip my rankings of Blaze and Mercury. Under the assumption that Blaze has fallen to WR2 status, however, Sarasota's attempts at leaning more run heavy have not gone unnoticed. Granted, they aren't going to suddenly turn into a run early/run often team, but the fact that they aren't likely to be among the league leaders in pass attempts going forward is noteworthy. Specifically, it does limit the potential ceiling of their WR2.
24) Mister Hogmally -
Last season's finish: ~WR3
There's a few assumptions I'm making in this ranking. First of all, there's the assumption that Colorado continues to yeet the ball. Second, the assumption that Hogmally will continue to feature as a receiver despite the severe toll of regression. Third, the assumption that Hogmally plays ahead of fellow Colorado tight end La'Fluke Paris-Johnson, who now has more TPE than Hogmally. However, if all three of these assumptions are true... well, you can see how Hogmally performed last season under the new scoring. Tight ends have some big time upside if they're actually used.
Offensive Linemen
1) Walrus Jones -
Last season's finish: OL1
The Otters did indeed increase their pass rate as I predicted last season. However, they increased it by way more than I predicted. I never saw Orange County leading the league in pass attempts. Unsurprisingly, their left tackle Walrus Jones was one of the major beneficiaries of this change, cruising to an easy OL1 finish. Jones does have regression to contend with along with his archetype being suboptimal for fantasy purposes, but being the high TPE left tackle for one of the most pass happy teams in the league cures a lot of ailments.
2) Kelijah Verwae -
Last season's finish: OL8
Verwae's lack of TPE last season clearly hurt. Verwae boasts the mauler archetype that's ideal for fantasy, played left tackle, and was on the second most pass happy team in the league. Another season of experience and TPE should do Verwae some good. I expect significant improvement in S47.
3) Klaus von Reinherz -
Last season's finish: OL3
And on the other side of the the TPE issue, you have Reinherz. Reinherz was also left tackle, but for a team that threw the ball considerably less than NOLA and played at a lower TPE. Sim gonna sim. Nevertheless, Reinherz is set up well for another strong performance in S47 so long as the Yeti continue to throw at least as much as they have been.
4) Bruce Talis -
Last season's finish: OL10
Yet another projection based only on the words of a little birdie. If San Jose does indeed intend to pump up the pass rate this season, then their left tackle stands to benefit greatly. The one hangup I have here is that Talis is an athletic archetype lineman, which tends not to be as good for fantasy purposes.
5) Fortified Fridge -
Last season's finish: OL6
Maybe it was the regression finally getting to him, but Fridge certainly underperformed expectations last season. Of course, maybe this should have been our expectation all along. After all, it's pretty well established that offensive linemen get better numbers when their teams pass more, and Arizona certainly doesn't pass much. Still, Fridge is a high TPE, mauler archetype left tackle. He'll be fine.
6) Great Khali -
Last season's finish: OL4
Khali benefitted greatly from Austin unexpectedly airing it out a bit last season. As unlikely as that outcome was last season, it's even more unlikely now. Austin does not have a single receiver over 700 TPE, and that includes running back Jeff Newman functioning as their WR3. The Copperheads should be running more this season, which probably means a drop in production for Khali.
7) Bengal Tigerheart -
Last season's finish: OL15
Here's where the major break point is for offensive linemen. It's well known that left tackles are far and away the best fantasy assets out there, so it says something when I have a right tackle listed here. Granted, I don't really think Tigerheart will actually finish as the OL7 (sim gonna sim, which especially goes for largely random positions like offensive line), but the fact remains that Tigerheart is a reasonably high TPE, mauler archetype lineman on a very pass happy team. That's enough to make him somewhat safe (at least, as safe as a right tackle can be).
8) Remi Musgrave-Smythe -
Last season's finish: OL7
And another right tackle. Notably, I do have RMS ranked below Tigerheart primarily due to Arizona's tendency to be far more run heavy, but otherwise everything I said above applies here too. I'm sure some random left tackle will end up outperforming RMS this season, but I can't even begin to imagine which one. None are anywhere near RMS in terms of TPE.
Kickers
My usual disclaimer; kickers are largely products of the teams around them, being entirely reliant on the rest of the team to even get them scoring opportunities. As a result, my number one criteria for ranking kickers is the offense they're attached to. I only use kicker TPE as a tiebreaker for when I think a few offenses are reasonably close in potency. With that in mind, here are my kicker rankings.
1) King Leonidas I - - Last season's finish: N/A
2) Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison - - Last season's finish: K4
3) Jack Sloth - - Last season's finish: K7
4) Booter McGavin - - Last season's finish: K12
5) Bob Kickerson - - Last season's finish: K11
6) Wing Wang - - Last season's finish: K8
7) Zenzeroni Xystarch II - - Last season's finish: K10
8) Swantavius King - - Last season's finish: K9
Defensive Linemen
1) Lionel Scrimmage -
Last season's finish: DL1
I thought Dub Redd was going to be the primary defensive lineman for the Silverbacks last season, so I actually didn't even have Scrimmage ranked. Thankfully Redd swapped over to linebacker this offseason, which clears the path for Scrimmage to repeat as the DL1. And it's a pretty clear path, too. Other than Dub Redd himself, there isn't another soul in New York's front seven over 500 TPE. Scrimmage is going to win that race into the backfield just about every time.
2) Clint Mustache -
Last season's finish: DL4
One of the things I've learned about fantasy defensive line is that defensive ends simply do not perform as well as defensive tackles in the 3-4 base defense that the league loves to use so much. However, that doesn't mean they are incapable of performing well. Mustache is the clear lynchpin of the Fire Salamanders' front seven, with only linebacker Mike Gesicki even in the same ballpark in terms of TPE. It was enough to overcome the league's anti-DE bias last season, and I think it'll be enough this season as well.
3) Alex Armstrong -
Last season's finish: DL6
Another defensive end at number three! With former MVP Cruella de Ville getting hammered by regression, Armstrong's only real peer in San Jose's front seven is linebacker DJ Maclean. It's not quite an ideal setup, but with only one major competitor for disrupting opponents' backfields Armstrong should find himself with plenty of fantasy production.
4) MC Hammer -
Last season's finish: DL2
Hammer had a good run, but the regression monster comes for everyone eventually. No one really stands out as the clear leader of Baltimore's front seven anymore. Hammer holds a slight advantage over the rest of his competition given his marginal TPE advantage and not marginal experience advantage, but don't be surprised if he's unable to maintain his previous level of production.
5) Sir Tywrell Xah'Aarwone -
Last season's finish: DL5
While Xah'Aawrone does have a stranglehold on the production of Arizona's defensive line, he now has to contend with two linebackers at around 900 TPE after Thomas Sutha swapped over from wide receiver. There should still be plenty of production to go around, but Xah'Aawrone is unlikely to reclaim his peak from a few seasons ago.
6) Bruce White -
Last season's finish: DL7
Talk about a stacked front seven. Bruce White is good. Very good. And he'll be lining up in the coveted RDT slot in NOLA's 3-4 defense. However, the advantages all those traits provide lose some luster when he's got another maxed out defensive linemen lining up opposite him along with a slew of solid linebackers behind him. This New Orleans front seven is likely to be a wrecking ball in S47, but there may be too many mouths to feed for White to truly shine.
7) Carly Rae Jensen -
Last season's finish: DL12
Jensen certainly underperformed last season, and it's not going to get much easier now that regression is really taking a bite out of her TPE. However, Jensen remains the best player on Austin's defensive line, and there's only one linebacker who poses a serious threat to steal production. Jensen probably won't relive her glory days, but I expect at least something of a bounce back from last season's disappointing finish.
8) Mo Gago -
Last season's finish: DL3
Speaking of the regression monster, Gago's reign of terror may finally be coming to and end. On top of no longer being the highest TPE player on Yellowknife's defensive line, the Wraiths' top two linebackers are catching up quickly. Gago will be facing serious competition for backfield disruption for the first time in a long time.
Linebackers
1) Maxwell Friedman -
Last season's finish: LB6
Amidst the chaos of Honolulu's fire sale last season, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that they still have a few solid players scattered around their roster. Friedman is absolutely one of them. More importantly, the nearly maxed out Friedman is the only member of Honolulu's front seven over 450 TPE. Friedman is going to the guy for the Hahalua.
2) Dub Redd -
Last season's finish: DL8
Redd swaps over to linebacker from defensive line for the S47 campaign, and should find success for much the same reason I expect teammate Lionel Scrimmage to find success; their only real competition for production is each other. New York's front seven is horrendously devoid of talent, which means if anyone is going to make it to the backfield it's going to be Redd or Scrimmage.
3) DJ Maclean -
Last season's finish: LB5
Cruella de Ville's reign as the linebacker supreme appears to finally be coming to an end as regression really starts to take its toll. Already filling the void is DJ Maclean, who managed to post a top 6 finish even while technically playing second fiddle to de Ville last season. With this linebacking corps fully in his hands now, Maclean is poised to reach even greater heights.
4) Crasher Wake -
Last season's finish: LB4
The best way I can describe Wake's situation in S47 is that he checks all the boxes you want out of your stud fantasy linebacker, but only half-heartedly. He is the highest TPE player in Austin's front seven... barely. He does outpace his fellow linebackers in TPE... but none of the others are that far behind. Still, even if he doesn't emphatically check every box, he still checks every box. He'll do just fine.
5) John Stark VIII -
Last season's finish: LB17
This one involves a bit of projection. Teammate Sim Sunigh has been a dominant fantasy force for several seasons now. However, Sunigh just got hit by regression hard enough for Stark to take a noticeable TPE lead. The competition among Orange County's linebackers is stiff, but there's not much of a defensive line to compete with. With Stark presumably taking over the Otters' top linebacker spot, my guess is that he'll live up to the standard Sunigh has been setting.
6) Waylen Greene -
Last season's finish: LB10
Greene was actually beat out by teammate Donte Darius last season. Surprising, given the TPE disparity between the pair. This season it appears that Greene's greatest competition is going to come from fellow linebacker Federico Americano. Regardless of how that shakes out, though, Colorado simply doesn't have much of a defensive line for their linebackers to compete with. All of them should do pretty well.
7) Mike Gesicki -
Last season's finish: LB9
While defensive end Clint Mustache is the leader of Berlin's front seven, Gesicki isn't far behind. More importantly, the TPE gap between Gesicki and Mustache is much smaller than the gap between Gesicki and anyone else. Gesicki himself could use a little more TPE before we should really expect a leap to the next level, but he's already in good position to be fantasy relevant.
8) Rolud Onyxgut -
Last season's finish: LB7
Onyxgut is one of the highest TPE linebackers in the league, and there are really only two other members of Cape Town's front seven who pose any sort of threat to Onyxgut's potential production. Unfortunately, those other two players are right on his heels. With production split three ways, it may be tough for Onyxgut to improve from "fantasy relevant" to "fantasy stud".
Defensive Backs
1) Jamdrian LeBayers -
Last season's finish: DB4
The Otters boast a potent offense and the best linebacker corps in the league. When other teams are likely to have a difficult time running against you and incentive to pass anyway, the elite CB1 is going to have some chances to make some plays.
2) Legs McMillion -
Last season's finish: DB2
Honestly there is no good way to attack the Crash's defense. They have elite playmakers at every level. However, the offense is still extremely potent, which means opponents will be incentivized to pass in order to keep up. McMillion has already proved to be capable, so just doing more of the same likely means another strong fantasy finish.
3) Benjamin Duvernay -
Last season's finish: DB5
As always, Arizona's offense figures to be among the best in the league. With Duvernay now hitting peak TPE for his career, he's well positioned to feast on opponents' desperation to keep pace with the Outlaws' offense.
4) Fronky Fresh -
Last season's finish: DB3
Sarasota's offensive identity might be a tad in flux going into S47, but that doesn't mean it'll be bad. The Sailfish still boast plenty of talent to give opposing defenses fits, which means opposing offenses will need to pass a bit more to keep up. On top of that, Sarasota clearly has more strength overall in their front seven than they do in their secondary. Teams will be doubly incentivized to throw, which means more opportunities for CB1 Fresh.
5) Billy Jor-El -
Last season's finish: DB14
New Orleans' situation in the secondary is a bit odd, but the important thing here is that Jor-El will be their CB1. With a ferocious front seven that will punish any rush attempts and a powerhouse offense that should turn most games into shootouts, Jor-El should find plenty of targets coming his way.
6) Blacksmith Andre -
Last season's finish: DB46
There's some ambiguity here for San Jose. Andre has a not insignificant TPE lead over teammate Brooks Piggott, but Piggott has that sweet, sweet experience advantage. My assumption here is that Andre will be the CB1, but if it looks like that isn't the case then Piggott can slide in nicely into this slot instead. The bottom line is that Piggott finished as the DB8 last season filling the Sabercats' CB1 role, and San Jose figures to turn more games into shootouts this season with an improved passing game. Whoever the CB1 is will certainly be fantasy relevant.
7) The Riddler -
Last season's finish: DB6
It took a while for the Silverbacks to really hit their stride last season, but they really showed what they could do when they finally did. The Riddler is hitting his peak TPE this season, so as long as New York can maintain their offensive effectiveness from last season then The Riddler should continue to be a relevant name for fantasy.
8) Kadarius Claypool II -
Last season's finish: DB9
With the addition of wide receiver Nick Williams, the Wraiths' offense might actually start producing some more high scoring games. Perfectly times for Claypool's peak TPE season.
Notable Omissions:
Heiiajs D. Owidhuse - - Last season's finish: DB1
While it is true that Owidhuse is coming off back to back DB1 finishes, I honestly couldn't explain to you why that is. He hadn't been that high in TPE before this season (with cornerback being one of the most reliant positions on TPE to actually be good), and it's not like Chicago has been forcing people to pass. Their offense has been decidedly mid, and their front seven really hasn't been good enough to justify attacking their defense exclusively through the air. Neither of those issues are likely to improve this season. Is it possible for Owidhuse to be elite once again? Sure, especially since I have no idea why he's been elite in the first place. It's hard to place my faith in such an outcome, though, when doing so violates pretty much every guideline I've observed of what makes a DB good for fantasy.