10-17-2024, 04:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2024, 04:57 PM by Seven Arrows. Edited 1 time in total.)
THE SEASON 50 ULTIMUS AND ULTIMINI GAMES ARE UPON US!
We have 2 great matchups coming at you on Friday night, and just in case your team isn’t playing (or you’re a degenerate gambler like me), why not put some money on the line to make things more enjoyable!
For those that don’t know, I used to write an article for every sportsbook bet for about 2.5 seasons straight. It was quite enjoyable and frankly, I don’t know how I found the time to get it done so often. But I digress. Since S50 is a milestone season, I figured I’d write a sportsbook article for the S50 championship games!
For our far superior Ultimini, we have the Portland Pythons
taking on the Bondi Beach Buccaneers 
. And for our basically irrelevant Ultimus (since Arizona isn't in it), we have the New York Silverbacks 
facing the back to back runner up Baltimore Hawks 
. So now let’s get on to see the bets and how I think they’re going to end up. As always, bet whatever you’re comfortable with and don’t be mad if the sim does sim things. It happens. But still, let’s try to win some money and have some fun!
Wolfie McDummy Jr. (BAL) Passing TDs: 1.5
Can Wolfie get Baltimore over the hump finally? We’ll find out soon! Wolfie was actually towards the bottom of the league in attempts and touchdowns. Baltimore certainly leaned on their 1-2 punch of Skywalker and Shrubbery. With New York having a better run defense compared to their pass defense, I think Baltimore will want to run the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wolfie gets a couple TD passes, but I’m guessing he’ll get 1 and then just hand it off the rest of the night. So I’m taking the under on this one.
Pasta Rockman (POR) Passing Yards: 243.5
Pasta had a phenomenal season, with a 99 passer rating. He averaged 234 yards per game while tossing about 2 TDs per game. In their 2 regular season games against BBB, he averaged 261 yards per game (312 vs BBB, then 211 @ BBB). This game is giving Portland the homefield advantage, so with the line being so close to his season average and the historical data (1 game) with HFA, I’m taking the over.
Scudl McDiddl (NYS) Receptions: 3.5
Scudl averages 3.3 catches per game for NYS this season. New Yorks passing offense is one of the lowest volume in the league, with Dyson attempting only 32 passes per game. Against the Outlaws, he caught 4 passes on 6 targets. Against Honolulu, he caught 1 pass on just 3 targets. So in order to hit the over on this one, you’re trying to estimate game flow and that NYS will need to pass for the majority of the 2nd half. Baltimore boasts one of the best run defenses and one of the worst pass defenses, so it’ll be interesting to see how NYS gameplans. I think they stick to their running ways in an attempt to control the clock. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few garbage time catches to hit the over, but I’d take the under here.
Golden Ericksen (BBB) Receiving TDs: 0.5
Bondi Beach has quite the passing attack, with 2 players over 1.3k receiving yards and 3 players with 8 or more TDs on the season. These coinflip props are always hard to predict. Portland has one of the better pass defenses this season in terms of yardage, but they certainly aren’t a shut down team in terms of points allowed. I’d take the over on this one simply for the coin flip luck as I expect this to be a decently high scoring game.
Elijah Dyson (NYS) Longest Rush: 22.5
Dyson has attempted 125 rushes this season and 7 of them have gone for over 20 yards, which is 5% of his carries (don’t fact check me please). We’ve all seen the long broken runs by QB’s, so this one is certainly a coin flip where it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bust a long run. However, I don’t like the odds of that actually happening, so I’d take the under on this one. Certainly not confident in the under though.
JamesIsRunning Wilder (POR) Total TDs: 0.5
This is a similar argument as the Golden Erickson bet. It’s basically a coinflip to see if he crosses the finish line or not. Good news, this bet doesn’t specify a rush or receiving TD, so that does increase the odds of something good happening here. The future Arizona Outlaws star RB has 15 rushing and 1 receiving TD on the season, good for more than 1 per game! As mentioned, I think this is a high scoring affair, and with the usage that Wilder gets, I’m slamming the over on this one.
Carter Goad (BAL) Sacks: 0.5
Sacks are one of the hardest stats to predict, in my opinion. Goad is certainly one of the best lineman in the league, but this prop will certainly depend on how often New York decides to drop back to pass. As mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to control the ball and run, which will limit the opportunities. I’m taking the under but don’t feel great about it.
Roy Rivers (BBB) Sacks: 0.5
Rookie Roy Rivers has had an amazing season and I can imagine that they hope they cap it off with a victory. Similar question marks as the Goad bet arise. Portland prefers to run the ball (by far the #1 attempts in the league, compared to dead last for passing attempts), so there might not be ample opportunities for Rivers to get a sack. Simply for that reason, I’m taking the under again.
Joe Bazooka (BAL) Tackles: 7.5
Bazooka is averaging 7.4 tackles per game this season. So if the prediction is that New York will run the ball more, this should give Bazooka more opportunities to tackle the ball carrier. As their best defensive player, he’ll have to hope that Goad eats up the offensive line to allow for more tackles. I think he gets it done here as long as New York runs as much as I think they try to. I’ll take the over.
Meguru Bachira (POR) Tackles: 6.5
Bachira is averaging 6.8 tackles per game, so over this line. In both games against BBB, Bachira had 6 tackles in 1 game and 5 tackles in the other. That’s not boding well for her here. I do think BBB will attempt to pass more, leading to more tackling opportunities, but that 5-6 range feels about right, so I’ll be taking the under on this one.
Wing Wang (NYS) 50+ yard FGs: 0.5
I hate kicking props, mainly because the sim has the worst logic out there. So we’ll have to figure out how many times we think New York attempts a 50+ yard field goal, and how good is Wang at those attempts. Good news, Wang is tied for most attempts over 50 yards with 9 attempts this season. He has hit 6 of them, so he’s actually pretty good at the long range ones. He also has a long of 65, so apparently the sim is ok with Wang trying those long ones. I think New York might struggle on 3rd downs, so there might be a few opportunities for Wang to hit one. This is certainly a coin flip bet, but I’ll take the over because I’m a gambling man.
Jack Wolf (BBB) XPM: 2.5
Wolf is 41 for 42 for XP’s this season, which is pretty damn good for the DSFL. So do we expect Wolf to have 3 to 4 chances for extra points? If you think he does, then I’d take the over. If you think BBB will get shut down, then you should take the under. As mentioned before, I think it’ll be a fairly high scoring game so I’m taking the over on this one, as well.
To Recap:
Wolfie McDummy Jr. (BAL) Passing TDs: 1.5 (Under)
Pasta Rockman (POR) Passing Yards: 243.5 (Over)
Scudl McDiddl (NYS) Receptions: 3.5 (Under)
Golden Ericksen (BBB) Receiving TDs: 0.5 (Over)
Elijah Dyson (NYS) Longest Rush: 22.5 (Under)
JamesIsRunning Wilder (POR) Total TDs: 0.5 (Over)
Carter Goad (BAL) Sacks: 0.5 (Under)
Roy Rivers (BBB) Sacks: 0.5 (Under)
Joe Bazooka (BAL) Tackles: 7.5 (Over)
Meguru Bachira (POR) Tackles: 6.5 (Under)
Wing Wang (NYS) 50+ yard FGs: 0.5 (Over)
Jack Wolf (BBB) XPM: 2.5 (Over)
As a friendly reminder, I've always hated betting the under on players. I wish we all could get all the stats, so please don't take it personally. The sim is a fickle beast. Good luck to all our S50 championship competitors and even better luck to you gamblers out there reading this (not so good) advice!
We have 2 great matchups coming at you on Friday night, and just in case your team isn’t playing (or you’re a degenerate gambler like me), why not put some money on the line to make things more enjoyable!
For those that don’t know, I used to write an article for every sportsbook bet for about 2.5 seasons straight. It was quite enjoyable and frankly, I don’t know how I found the time to get it done so often. But I digress. Since S50 is a milestone season, I figured I’d write a sportsbook article for the S50 championship games!
For our far superior Ultimini, we have the Portland Pythons
taking on the Bondi Beach Buccaneers . And for our basically irrelevant Ultimus (since Arizona isn't in it), we have the New York Silverbacks facing the back to back runner up Baltimore Hawks . So now let’s get on to see the bets and how I think they’re going to end up. As always, bet whatever you’re comfortable with and don’t be mad if the sim does sim things. It happens. But still, let’s try to win some money and have some fun! Wolfie McDummy Jr. (BAL) Passing TDs: 1.5Can Wolfie get Baltimore over the hump finally? We’ll find out soon! Wolfie was actually towards the bottom of the league in attempts and touchdowns. Baltimore certainly leaned on their 1-2 punch of Skywalker and Shrubbery. With New York having a better run defense compared to their pass defense, I think Baltimore will want to run the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wolfie gets a couple TD passes, but I’m guessing he’ll get 1 and then just hand it off the rest of the night. So I’m taking the under on this one.
Pasta Rockman (POR) Passing Yards: 243.5Pasta had a phenomenal season, with a 99 passer rating. He averaged 234 yards per game while tossing about 2 TDs per game. In their 2 regular season games against BBB, he averaged 261 yards per game (312 vs BBB, then 211 @ BBB). This game is giving Portland the homefield advantage, so with the line being so close to his season average and the historical data (1 game) with HFA, I’m taking the over.
Scudl McDiddl (NYS) Receptions: 3.5Scudl averages 3.3 catches per game for NYS this season. New Yorks passing offense is one of the lowest volume in the league, with Dyson attempting only 32 passes per game. Against the Outlaws, he caught 4 passes on 6 targets. Against Honolulu, he caught 1 pass on just 3 targets. So in order to hit the over on this one, you’re trying to estimate game flow and that NYS will need to pass for the majority of the 2nd half. Baltimore boasts one of the best run defenses and one of the worst pass defenses, so it’ll be interesting to see how NYS gameplans. I think they stick to their running ways in an attempt to control the clock. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few garbage time catches to hit the over, but I’d take the under here.
Golden Ericksen (BBB) Receiving TDs: 0.5Bondi Beach has quite the passing attack, with 2 players over 1.3k receiving yards and 3 players with 8 or more TDs on the season. These coinflip props are always hard to predict. Portland has one of the better pass defenses this season in terms of yardage, but they certainly aren’t a shut down team in terms of points allowed. I’d take the over on this one simply for the coin flip luck as I expect this to be a decently high scoring game.
Elijah Dyson (NYS) Longest Rush: 22.5Dyson has attempted 125 rushes this season and 7 of them have gone for over 20 yards, which is 5% of his carries (don’t fact check me please). We’ve all seen the long broken runs by QB’s, so this one is certainly a coin flip where it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bust a long run. However, I don’t like the odds of that actually happening, so I’d take the under on this one. Certainly not confident in the under though.
JamesIsRunning Wilder (POR) Total TDs: 0.5This is a similar argument as the Golden Erickson bet. It’s basically a coinflip to see if he crosses the finish line or not. Good news, this bet doesn’t specify a rush or receiving TD, so that does increase the odds of something good happening here. The future Arizona Outlaws star RB has 15 rushing and 1 receiving TD on the season, good for more than 1 per game! As mentioned, I think this is a high scoring affair, and with the usage that Wilder gets, I’m slamming the over on this one.
Carter Goad (BAL) Sacks: 0.5Sacks are one of the hardest stats to predict, in my opinion. Goad is certainly one of the best lineman in the league, but this prop will certainly depend on how often New York decides to drop back to pass. As mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to control the ball and run, which will limit the opportunities. I’m taking the under but don’t feel great about it.
Roy Rivers (BBB) Sacks: 0.5Rookie Roy Rivers has had an amazing season and I can imagine that they hope they cap it off with a victory. Similar question marks as the Goad bet arise. Portland prefers to run the ball (by far the #1 attempts in the league, compared to dead last for passing attempts), so there might not be ample opportunities for Rivers to get a sack. Simply for that reason, I’m taking the under again.
Joe Bazooka (BAL) Tackles: 7.5Bazooka is averaging 7.4 tackles per game this season. So if the prediction is that New York will run the ball more, this should give Bazooka more opportunities to tackle the ball carrier. As their best defensive player, he’ll have to hope that Goad eats up the offensive line to allow for more tackles. I think he gets it done here as long as New York runs as much as I think they try to. I’ll take the over.
Meguru Bachira (POR) Tackles: 6.5Bachira is averaging 6.8 tackles per game, so over this line. In both games against BBB, Bachira had 6 tackles in 1 game and 5 tackles in the other. That’s not boding well for her here. I do think BBB will attempt to pass more, leading to more tackling opportunities, but that 5-6 range feels about right, so I’ll be taking the under on this one.
Wing Wang (NYS) 50+ yard FGs: 0.5I hate kicking props, mainly because the sim has the worst logic out there. So we’ll have to figure out how many times we think New York attempts a 50+ yard field goal, and how good is Wang at those attempts. Good news, Wang is tied for most attempts over 50 yards with 9 attempts this season. He has hit 6 of them, so he’s actually pretty good at the long range ones. He also has a long of 65, so apparently the sim is ok with Wang trying those long ones. I think New York might struggle on 3rd downs, so there might be a few opportunities for Wang to hit one. This is certainly a coin flip bet, but I’ll take the over because I’m a gambling man.
Jack Wolf (BBB) XPM: 2.5Wolf is 41 for 42 for XP’s this season, which is pretty damn good for the DSFL. So do we expect Wolf to have 3 to 4 chances for extra points? If you think he does, then I’d take the over. If you think BBB will get shut down, then you should take the under. As mentioned before, I think it’ll be a fairly high scoring game so I’m taking the over on this one, as well.
To Recap:
Wolfie McDummy Jr. (BAL) Passing TDs: 1.5 (Under)
Pasta Rockman (POR) Passing Yards: 243.5 (Over)
Scudl McDiddl (NYS) Receptions: 3.5 (Under)
Golden Ericksen (BBB) Receiving TDs: 0.5 (Over)
Elijah Dyson (NYS) Longest Rush: 22.5 (Under)
JamesIsRunning Wilder (POR) Total TDs: 0.5 (Over)
Carter Goad (BAL) Sacks: 0.5 (Under)
Roy Rivers (BBB) Sacks: 0.5 (Under)
Joe Bazooka (BAL) Tackles: 7.5 (Over)
Meguru Bachira (POR) Tackles: 6.5 (Under)
Wing Wang (NYS) 50+ yard FGs: 0.5 (Over)
Jack Wolf (BBB) XPM: 2.5 (Over)
As a friendly reminder, I've always hated betting the under on players. I wish we all could get all the stats, so please don't take it personally. The sim is a fickle beast. Good luck to all our S50 championship competitors and even better luck to you gamblers out there reading this (not so good) advice!
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