Despite what will most likely be three straight years of seeing the same two teams in the Ultimus, the power in the league is noticeably shifting. For an example, here's each team's Point Differential in S11, S9, and how much it is shifted.
NOLA 124 333 -209
BAL 77 233 -156
YKW -77 64 -141
OC 63 152 -89
COL 5 -14 +19
SJS -183 -291 +108
ARI -5 -214 +209
PHI -4 -263 +259
(Fun fact: Baltimore and Yellowknife had the exact same PF and PA, just in the opposite spots)
You'll notice three teams have significantly improved since S9. Let's look at them a bit more in-depth.
The San Jose SaberCats have started 3 different QBs from S9 to S11, but appear to have someone they can get behind...eventually. Joliet Christ struggled in his rookie season, playing almost identical to Brad Pennington in the same situation despite much better weapons. Next year, his receiving corps will only improve with the addition of Ty Justice, and Oles, Flash, and Brannigan will all improve. Aided by the strength of Jerrod Canton, San Jose's offense will be quite intimidating...on paper. Unfortunately, the game plans never quite seem to come together in San Jose. This was the 5th consecutive year that San Jose has had a bottom 3 QB in passer rating, and with no QBs regressing or retiring, and Christ currently in last, that streak will continue into S12. On defense, the team loses Ja Brill and Bastion Barnhardt, and will see Clifford Rove and Calkewlated Chambers regressed beyond usefulness. Add in that Thomas Kane III and Odell Marrett are both below 100 TPE, and that's 6 defensive positions that need to be filled (7 if you include Piazza who is still at 121 TPE). If SJS pulls off some good trades, they could get 5 useful, mainly active, defensive players, but that is best case scenario and is beyond unlikely. The most likely situation is 3 active defenders, meaning the SJS defense will be a liability for years to come.
The Philadelphia Liberty have shown about two and a half times the improvement since their first season of Logan Noble, and actually performed worse in S10 before a huge leap forward in S11 that nearly brought them to the playoffs. Of all teams, they have improved the most in terms of point differential, despite not having been the worst team in S9. This is clearly a team on an upward climb, and appears, at a glance, to have the most promise, yet you probably noticed that I chose to talk about them second, and not last. As with San Jose, let's start with the offense, which is also on the rise with a second year QB. Adriana Falconi had an impressively productive year compared to Christ, though was still significantly below the marks set by Fitzpatrick or Showbiz. Next year, the entire offense should be more capable, and Falconi should have a breakout year, though Marquise Brown will be the feature, as he will be the best RB in the league. The only loss on offense is Connall "Damien Kroetch" O'Sullivan, but those 3 carries a game shouldn't have any significant impact as the passing role will be ready to increase. As with San Jose, though, the red flags are on defense. Drew Davidson, Perry Tucker, and, far most importantly, Eli Kamaka, all retire after this season. The loss of Kamaka will force defensive backs to spend a lot more time in coverage as well as open up the run game. In addition, there is significant concern that Andre Bly will leave in free agency. With his activity check this week, they can no longer extend him as an inactive. His loss, along with Kamaka's, turns Philadelphia's league leading pass coverage into a weakness. If all four are lost (and 3 are guaranteed departures), Philadelphia will take a huge step back. What makes it worse is that in order to acquire Bly and Kamaka, Philadelphia surrendered an S12 Rd 2, so they won't even have the draft picks to replace two of the four holes now in need of filling.
The Arizona Outlaws have improved almost as much as Philadelphia, but without giving up nearly as much. They will be without a S13 3rd rounder, but as the S13 class seems smaller than S12, and a 3rd is less significant than a 2nd (it's that kind of analysis that brings folks back), it's safe to say that the loss will not be felt nearly as much. On offense, Fitzpatrick was definitely turning heads, posting the best TD:INT ratio in the league and adding an extra 486 yards from last year despite 4 fewer passing plays. While S12 will probably show only minor improvement in the passing game, improvement isn't really needed at all, as he was already well above the league average mark. What does need improvement is the running game, as Arizona was second to last in rushing yards, and tied for last in rushing TDs, the only team to be in the bottom two of both categories. Fortunately, there is a lot of help coming. Arizona will be calling up TE Steven Moore and RB Slim Shady, both of whom are already upgrades. Moore will be replacing Fresh Booter, and Shady replacing the veteran Mackworthy. Offensively, Arizona is basically in the same situation as Philadelphia, only reversed, with one aspect of the offense already clicking, and the other improving to adequate level. However, the reason Arizona is so high on this list is their defense. Rather than seeing several needed players regress and retire, Arizona is already improving their run defense and pass coverage. They have 9 of 11 defensive spots filled by a capable player, meaning that they can afford to draft defense in the first and second round again and still add depth on offense with their 19th overall pick. Going into S12, Arizona is a complete team, with enough youth to challenge for many seasons to come.
NOLA 124 333 -209
BAL 77 233 -156
YKW -77 64 -141
OC 63 152 -89
COL 5 -14 +19
SJS -183 -291 +108
ARI -5 -214 +209
PHI -4 -263 +259
(Fun fact: Baltimore and Yellowknife had the exact same PF and PA, just in the opposite spots)
You'll notice three teams have significantly improved since S9. Let's look at them a bit more in-depth.
The San Jose SaberCats have started 3 different QBs from S9 to S11, but appear to have someone they can get behind...eventually. Joliet Christ struggled in his rookie season, playing almost identical to Brad Pennington in the same situation despite much better weapons. Next year, his receiving corps will only improve with the addition of Ty Justice, and Oles, Flash, and Brannigan will all improve. Aided by the strength of Jerrod Canton, San Jose's offense will be quite intimidating...on paper. Unfortunately, the game plans never quite seem to come together in San Jose. This was the 5th consecutive year that San Jose has had a bottom 3 QB in passer rating, and with no QBs regressing or retiring, and Christ currently in last, that streak will continue into S12. On defense, the team loses Ja Brill and Bastion Barnhardt, and will see Clifford Rove and Calkewlated Chambers regressed beyond usefulness. Add in that Thomas Kane III and Odell Marrett are both below 100 TPE, and that's 6 defensive positions that need to be filled (7 if you include Piazza who is still at 121 TPE). If SJS pulls off some good trades, they could get 5 useful, mainly active, defensive players, but that is best case scenario and is beyond unlikely. The most likely situation is 3 active defenders, meaning the SJS defense will be a liability for years to come.
The Philadelphia Liberty have shown about two and a half times the improvement since their first season of Logan Noble, and actually performed worse in S10 before a huge leap forward in S11 that nearly brought them to the playoffs. Of all teams, they have improved the most in terms of point differential, despite not having been the worst team in S9. This is clearly a team on an upward climb, and appears, at a glance, to have the most promise, yet you probably noticed that I chose to talk about them second, and not last. As with San Jose, let's start with the offense, which is also on the rise with a second year QB. Adriana Falconi had an impressively productive year compared to Christ, though was still significantly below the marks set by Fitzpatrick or Showbiz. Next year, the entire offense should be more capable, and Falconi should have a breakout year, though Marquise Brown will be the feature, as he will be the best RB in the league. The only loss on offense is Connall "Damien Kroetch" O'Sullivan, but those 3 carries a game shouldn't have any significant impact as the passing role will be ready to increase. As with San Jose, though, the red flags are on defense. Drew Davidson, Perry Tucker, and, far most importantly, Eli Kamaka, all retire after this season. The loss of Kamaka will force defensive backs to spend a lot more time in coverage as well as open up the run game. In addition, there is significant concern that Andre Bly will leave in free agency. With his activity check this week, they can no longer extend him as an inactive. His loss, along with Kamaka's, turns Philadelphia's league leading pass coverage into a weakness. If all four are lost (and 3 are guaranteed departures), Philadelphia will take a huge step back. What makes it worse is that in order to acquire Bly and Kamaka, Philadelphia surrendered an S12 Rd 2, so they won't even have the draft picks to replace two of the four holes now in need of filling.
The Arizona Outlaws have improved almost as much as Philadelphia, but without giving up nearly as much. They will be without a S13 3rd rounder, but as the S13 class seems smaller than S12, and a 3rd is less significant than a 2nd (it's that kind of analysis that brings folks back), it's safe to say that the loss will not be felt nearly as much. On offense, Fitzpatrick was definitely turning heads, posting the best TD:INT ratio in the league and adding an extra 486 yards from last year despite 4 fewer passing plays. While S12 will probably show only minor improvement in the passing game, improvement isn't really needed at all, as he was already well above the league average mark. What does need improvement is the running game, as Arizona was second to last in rushing yards, and tied for last in rushing TDs, the only team to be in the bottom two of both categories. Fortunately, there is a lot of help coming. Arizona will be calling up TE Steven Moore and RB Slim Shady, both of whom are already upgrades. Moore will be replacing Fresh Booter, and Shady replacing the veteran Mackworthy. Offensively, Arizona is basically in the same situation as Philadelphia, only reversed, with one aspect of the offense already clicking, and the other improving to adequate level. However, the reason Arizona is so high on this list is their defense. Rather than seeing several needed players regress and retire, Arizona is already improving their run defense and pass coverage. They have 9 of 11 defensive spots filled by a capable player, meaning that they can afford to draft defense in the first and second round again and still add depth on offense with their 19th overall pick. Going into S12, Arizona is a complete team, with enough youth to challenge for many seasons to come.