It's time for team power rankings! I must be low on money, since apparently I only do media for selfish gain! Let's start with the NSFC! First we'll look at Baltimore v Philadelphia, then Yellowknife and Colorado.
Just a quick note before we begin: TPE values were taken from last week's roster pages. Sorry for the outdated info, but this takes quite a bit of time to put together.
Baltimore
QB: 741
WR/TE: 642, 326, 1076, 660, 277
RB: 478, 404
OL: 750, 750, 750, 750, 550
DL: 439, 426, 189, 160
LB: 1002, 196
DB: 435, 336, 289, 241, 303
K: 219
Right off the bat, you can see that the Baltimore offense is a lot deeper than the Baltimore defense. On offense, the team has an amazingly capable group of receivers, with their only weakness being a sub-par WR2, which I currently have as Nagasawa, but will likely end up being Maddox. What's really impressive is that Antonio Summer appears to be the second-best RB on the team behind Owen Taylor. We may see a true RBBC this year, and an amazingly effective one. With 4 T4 OL, plus the blocking from Harp and L'Alto, no team in the league is more prepared to dominate on the run game. On defense, which used to be Baltimore's strength, things are a bit less ideal. Despite losing Asipi and Hendrix, they've done a decent job keeping a respectable front 4, with Kuusela brought in to plug the gap. Roenick continues to dominate at the LB position, but he's just one guy, and their only other LB, Trout, will be just a role-player this season. I'm assuming the third LB spot will be filled by one of their four safeties, still leaving a complete, though not ideal, secondary.
PHI
QB: 591
WR/TE: 835, 428, 338, 255
RB: 641, 506
OL: 550, 550, 550, 550, 350
DL: 841, 250, 217, 150
LB: 389, 250, 249,
DB: 468, 364, 324, 225
K: 316
150 TPE may not seem like a lot, but for a developing QB, it's going to mean a couple more interceptions, a few more incomplete passes, a few more sacks. Over the course of a season, those mistakes add up. Philadelphia clearly boasts a good enough offense to contend, but this year, so does every other team. The run game still looks to be more their strength. It doesn't help that the Liberty lack a reliable TE for blocking, but having Hondo at FB makes up for it, making Brown the clear #1 RB in my book. Their offensive line hasn't yet been purchased, but I am going to assume it is just slightly worse than Baltimore's. On defense, Weathers is still a beast, and may actually be the best DL in the league (if individual defensive fantasy was a thing, he would be a top guy to get), but instead of Kamaka being the alternative threat, it is now Curtis Saul, who just isn't going to "inspire" as many mistakes, and rushers are a bit more likely to slip through. Fortunately, all 3 LBs can be trusted to play cleanup. Philadelphia's biggest strength last year was their #1 pass coverage. While the pass rush was a significant part of that, the loss of Andre Bly leaves a big hole in the secondary, one that the Liberty had likely planned on Carter Bush filling. Unfortunately, that was shot down this weekend, leaving the final coverage spot as a serious question mark on an otherwise solid defense (@BWIII, could you let me know how ya plan to make this work?).
(EDIT: Thanks for the info. I added Cox's offseason TPE)
Before going on to the rest of the NSFC (because who really cares after these two, right?), let's look at a bet.
@iamslm22 made the following bet with @YoungTB
This is a bold bet for Brown, mainly because he can't really afford to lose. So, despite equal stakes, there isn't exactly equal impact. In addition, the wording of the bet makes this even more dangerous. Philly can't just tie Baltimore in record and rely on tie-breakers, they have to actually win more games. Is it possible? Oh hell yes, but the odds are in Baltimore's favor, as a tie means a win for Slim. It's really hard to say which team has the advantage here. On offense, Baltimore clearly has the lead with a better rushing (due to blocking) and passing game, but Philadelphia clearly HAD the better rushing and passing defense when I initially wrote this section. In the light of recent rule changes, however, Philadelphia's pass coverage took a significant hit. All things considered, I think Baltimore has the edge, and put them as #1 in the NSFC, but I think it is close enough for a sim fuck. For the bet, however, I think slm wins this easily.
Before going on, I will address the recent rule change. Last year, it became public knowledge that WRs not only were serviceable DBs, but that they were better in coverage than most actual DBs. This is the latest in revelations that calling our sim engine a potato is insulting to potatos. I liked the idea of two-way players, but I felt they should be a passable patch to a team weakness, and not a better option. In most cases, this is exactly how it works. A DB playing receiver is less ideal than a receiver with the same TPE, and most positions don't translate well anywhere else. Famously, nothing works at RB.
The timing of the rule change has raised eyebrows. Last year, and several prior, Baltimore had Trey Willie as a two-way. This year, for the first time in ages, they lack a dominant WR. It is then, and only then, that two way players get banned. To make it more suspicious, the previous year was the first year they didn't have two solid WRs, and last year was the year teams became limited to only 1 two-way player. I will admit that this is concerning.
In the interest of full disclosure, here are two things about my views on this rule.
#1) I think banning it was the wrong move, and instead WRs should have just had their xp on defense lowered considerably.
#2) I still advised run_CMC to vote for the ban.
Part of the reason I urged for the vote was that one particular use of two way players was disgustingly overpowered. I considered it similar to playing an RB at WR back in...S4-ish? It was a case where it was BETTER to play out of position than to have the position called for. The other part was that Arizona had an active defensive back in the DSFL that we could call up. That second part shouldn't matter, but if we hadn't drafted Mughes, we probably would have voted against the ban, because we would have had no time to adjust to it.
To mitigate that second part being a factor, I strongly urge HO to make future rules summit proposals take place the following season. Holding a vote after free agency and the draft gives teams no chance to adjust without getting trade-raped.
Okay, back to the power rankings!
Yellowknife
QB: 1093
WR/TE: 688, 318, 303, 558
RB: 202, 141
OL: 550, 550, 550, 550, 350
DL: 404, 271, 198, 179, 152, 141
LB: 565
DB: 943, 780, 637, 296, 121
K: 312
Yellowknife's offense has undergone a significant and expensive overhaul. With a better QB and better wide receivers, Yellowknife will do a much better job moving the chains than last year. The sole remaining Pennington will be a fantasy stud this year, but Applehort, who the Wraiths gave up Antonio Summer and (effectively) Errol Maddox to acquire, also has Josh Parker, Glenn McPoyal and Budda Browning to target, all four of whom are significant upgrades to Bailey Cook, who began last year as the primary receiver. The running game sees a minor upgrade as well, largely due to a slightly more effective OL. Wizardry should be a very intriguing option, splitting snaps at FB, WR, and RB. Their defense is harder to get a handle on. I'll admit I was surprised by how intimidating their secondary looked. The trio of Taylor, Bly, and Lavelle are practically begging QBs to air it out against them, and their front seven, while clearly the weak link, isn't a disaster. After trading away both Penningtons and receiving basically just Chambers in return (I don't expect Piazza or Pitcher to play), I thought Yellowknife might move to the bottom. They are still comparable to Colorado, but I think Yellowknife has the edge due to their superior secondary and increased options on offense. When I initially wrote this, I had BAL and PHI neck and neck, with Yellowknife significantly behind, but Yellowknife appears to have gained some ground on the Liberty. In fact, I am moving them above Philadelphia. That's how significant a difference this rule made.
Colorado
QB: 1107
WR/TE: 1069, 290, 232, 201, 146
RB: 423, 216
OL: 750*5
DL: 198, 197, 81
LB: 531, 186, 139
DB: 400, 183, 171, 141, 130
K: 164
As I've mentioned multiple times, McCormick played below his TPE last year due to the position change limits, but this year he will begin the season as a complete QB. With the dominant Howard Miller to throw to, you know he's going to find the end zone in the first half of every game. James Bishop is no Dwayne Aaron, but is still a legit WR2 for fantasy based on how much he'll be fed, and is an early favorite for ORotY. After that, though, things get pretty shaky. His #3 receiver will either be Wachter or the newly-drafted Wright, and his TE Alvin Chipmunk continues to be a weakness. For the rushing game, Cansino appears to be the lead back, with Grau built as a proper fullback. Cansino is far from a top tier RB, but he has one major factor in his favor: blocking. While Chipmunk may not offer much as a blocker, a full line of T4 blockers is something no other team can claim, and with the added support from Grau, Cansino should be a viable option. On defense, the Yeti have only really maintained their front seven. It still won't threaten anyone, but it is slightly less likely to make mistakes. Ishigawa should see a mild decrease in tackles. The pass coverage has shown little growth, with newly transitioned Montgomery already the best DB on the team, and Colorado will remain the easiest team to pass on, especially now that their best DB, Howard Miller, will be limited to offense and special teams.
That's the NSFC. Now let's look at the ridiculously competitive ASFC. For this, since teams are so close, I am going to review them all in fairly random order and then rank them afterward.
San Jose
QB: 568
WR/TE: 605, 571, 399, 229, 219*
RB: 358, 302
OL: 550*5
DL: 203, 169, 136*
LB: 860, 731, 707
DB: 633, 562, 548, 471, 195
K: 123
When an S9 player is on page 2 of your roster, your team has a lot of young talent...or some players you need to remove from your roster. Maybe both. What can you say about a team that already has 2 of the best linebackers in the league and thinks "hey, whaddaya say we grab ourselves another LB?" We'll get to that later. First off, offense. Joliet Christ isn't quite where he needs to be to contend. I've mentioned "effective peak" for QB in the 800s, and Fitzpatrick started Week 1 of his 3rd season at 700. The best thing going for him is a pair of threatening wide receivers in Xavier Flash and Kazimir Oles. Brannigan clears the bar as a reliable target from TE, and at the moment it's unclear who the #4 target will be. Currently, Ty Justice has the lead with 229, but Jorel Tuck at 147 is on pace to catch up very quickly. For the Tuck brothers, I listed their TPE after this week's updates, because the current totals were extremely misleading. If management trusts Christ to air it out, lack of viable targets won't be the issue. In the running game, Jerrod Canton proved himself as a phenomenal young talent, and Orosz as more than competent depth. Their defense is a bit less certain. Bayley, Poopsie, and Troyski are a more than capable trio of corners, but the addition of Thad Pennington gives them someone over the top, which was San Jose's biggest weakness. Their front seven has three great linebackers, but a very weak DL. Expect them to have to blitz a lot to get any pressure, but expect the coverage to perform well enough while blitzing, too. If you go to San Jose without a run game, then it is game over. This roster is absolutely deadly to a lot of teams, most notably conference rival New Orleans, but after last year, I still worry that the offense can limit turnovers enough while still putting up points. The talent is definitely there, but I am still wary.
New Orleans
QB: 1295
WR/TE: 1059, 270, 321, 212
RB: 249
OL: 750, 750, 550, 550, 550
DL: 447, 194, 94
LB: 829, 518, 399, 349
DB: 778, 670, 246, 221
K: 170
Last year's Ultimus Champions. As amazing as it is to see such a strong team decline so much, they have been fighting off the rebuild for a while. QB Maximus is, by TPE, the best in the league, but, like McCormick, his options are less than ideal. Outside of Fyodorovich, his next-best receiver is a developing tight end, which doesn't bode well. A trade for Borro Gore gives New Orleans a running game to replace Smallwood, and with their above average OL I believe he'll perform adequately enough, but not near enough to carry games. On defense, the loss of Bayley is a significant one, but I don't think they are horrible without him. Oakes, Harrison, Hornbacher and Rove should be adequate, even if not threatening. The ASFC is the more volatile conference, and New Orleans is the most volatile team. Even when the odds are in their favor they default to risky gameplans, making them the most exciting team to watch, but the more I look at this roster, the less afraid I am of facing it.
Orange County
QB: 637
WR/TE: 957, 838, 375
RB: 501, 382
OL: 750, 550, 550, 550, 550
DL: 421, 332, 330, 192
LB: 821, 512, 206
DB: 1204, 612, 408, 247
K: 125
Well, the Orange County Otters went from appearing in 4 straight Ultimus games, then became the runner-up in 3 straight seasons, so naturally it is time to continue their decline and fall...up? Are you kidding me? Yeah, I'll do the breakdown in a minute, but I actually have Orange County as not only my favorite to win the ASFC, but currently my favorite to win the whole damn thing. Let's look at why. On offense, Showbiz has turned a corner, and still boasts the top WR duo in the league. The offensive line is slightly better than last year as well, leaving him free to air it out as well as adding a bit to Adams' running efficiency. With more reliable receivers, better blocking, and a good enough run game with some depth, I think this offense is impossible to stop, which is a lot, but not all they have going for them. On defense, I was really hoping regression was going to hit their front 4 harder than it really did. Winchester is in his 12th season, and he's STILL going to be damn near 500 TPE by week 1. They have 3 players on the line who can stop a play, then the best LB in the league to clean up whatever gets through. Their secondary boasts the best overall DB in the league with Jaylon Broxton, and the combination of Grithead, Spector, and Rice made them comfortable without putting Crush two way either.
Arizona
QB: 816
WR/TE: 723, 648, 510, 259, 249
RB: 261, 259
OL: 550, 550, 550, 550, 350
DL: 451, 402, 287, 189
LB: 451, 214, 204
DB: 737, 736, 323, 197
K: 962
Amazing how much a team's identity can change in a few seasons. In S9, the Outlaws had an amazing run game, a clearly bottom half pass game, and a capable defense. A year later, they had a slightly below average run game and pass game, and the defense had dropped off as well. In S11, they had a top 3 passing game, a bottom 2 run game, and a below average defense. This year, they may have the best passing offense, their run game looks to be 5th or so, and the defense confidently average (and only average due to a suspension). The biggest thing going against the offense is a tied for league-worst OL, but with Fitzpatrick's mobility, I doubt it will hurt them much. Willie and Squanch can be counted on for a lot of long touchdowns, and Shady should outperform Mack even with the worse OL thanks to extra blocking from TE Moore. In games where the run game needs to carry (such as against SJS and YKW), Asipi will flex between RB and WR, making them a nightmare against any defense. On defense, expect David, Reese, and Sackerman to create a lot of pressure. Reigning DPotY Selich should have even fewer blockers in his way to making plays. Morris and Barnes should be capable enough on the outside, but there are gaps to be found if QBs can hold onto the ball long enough.
Now, the final results:
NSFC
#1: Baltimore - the most complete team in the conference.
#2: Yellowknife - A good passing game and great CB duo gives them the edge in shootouts.
#3: Philadelphia - A lot of young talent, but they'll need one more season to get back into the postseason.
#4: Colorado - Still the league's worst defense, and not deep enough on offense to catch back up.
ASFC
#1: Orange County - The only team I feel has 0 weaknesses.
#2: Arizona - I think SJS has the slightly better roster, but Arizona has a better idea of what they need to do.
#3: San Jose - If Christ can turn it around big, I may regret this, but more than average improvement is needed.
#4: New Orleans - Just too many weaknesses to make up for.
Despite the rankings, I want to stress again how close this league is. There is not a single team that I think will be under 4 wins, or a single team I expect with more than 10, and I think even that is a bit bold.
Let me know what you think.
Just a quick note before we begin: TPE values were taken from last week's roster pages. Sorry for the outdated info, but this takes quite a bit of time to put together.
Baltimore
QB: 741
WR/TE: 642, 326, 1076, 660, 277
RB: 478, 404
OL: 750, 750, 750, 750, 550
DL: 439, 426, 189, 160
LB: 1002, 196
DB: 435, 336, 289, 241, 303
K: 219
Right off the bat, you can see that the Baltimore offense is a lot deeper than the Baltimore defense. On offense, the team has an amazingly capable group of receivers, with their only weakness being a sub-par WR2, which I currently have as Nagasawa, but will likely end up being Maddox. What's really impressive is that Antonio Summer appears to be the second-best RB on the team behind Owen Taylor. We may see a true RBBC this year, and an amazingly effective one. With 4 T4 OL, plus the blocking from Harp and L'Alto, no team in the league is more prepared to dominate on the run game. On defense, which used to be Baltimore's strength, things are a bit less ideal. Despite losing Asipi and Hendrix, they've done a decent job keeping a respectable front 4, with Kuusela brought in to plug the gap. Roenick continues to dominate at the LB position, but he's just one guy, and their only other LB, Trout, will be just a role-player this season. I'm assuming the third LB spot will be filled by one of their four safeties, still leaving a complete, though not ideal, secondary.
PHI
QB: 591
WR/TE: 835, 428, 338, 255
RB: 641, 506
OL: 550, 550, 550, 550, 350
DL: 841, 250, 217, 150
LB: 389, 250, 249,
DB: 468, 364, 324, 225
K: 316
150 TPE may not seem like a lot, but for a developing QB, it's going to mean a couple more interceptions, a few more incomplete passes, a few more sacks. Over the course of a season, those mistakes add up. Philadelphia clearly boasts a good enough offense to contend, but this year, so does every other team. The run game still looks to be more their strength. It doesn't help that the Liberty lack a reliable TE for blocking, but having Hondo at FB makes up for it, making Brown the clear #1 RB in my book. Their offensive line hasn't yet been purchased, but I am going to assume it is just slightly worse than Baltimore's. On defense, Weathers is still a beast, and may actually be the best DL in the league (if individual defensive fantasy was a thing, he would be a top guy to get), but instead of Kamaka being the alternative threat, it is now Curtis Saul, who just isn't going to "inspire" as many mistakes, and rushers are a bit more likely to slip through. Fortunately, all 3 LBs can be trusted to play cleanup. Philadelphia's biggest strength last year was their #1 pass coverage. While the pass rush was a significant part of that, the loss of Andre Bly leaves a big hole in the secondary, one that the Liberty had likely planned on Carter Bush filling. Unfortunately, that was shot down this weekend, leaving the final coverage spot as a serious question mark on an otherwise solid defense (@BWIII, could you let me know how ya plan to make this work?).
(EDIT: Thanks for the info. I added Cox's offseason TPE)
Before going on to the rest of the NSFC (because who really cares after these two, right?), let's look at a bet.
@iamslm22 made the following bet with @YoungTB
Quote:YoungTB bets PHI finishes S12 with a better a record than BAL.
I bet they don't.
10M each.
This is a bold bet for Brown, mainly because he can't really afford to lose. So, despite equal stakes, there isn't exactly equal impact. In addition, the wording of the bet makes this even more dangerous. Philly can't just tie Baltimore in record and rely on tie-breakers, they have to actually win more games. Is it possible? Oh hell yes, but the odds are in Baltimore's favor, as a tie means a win for Slim. It's really hard to say which team has the advantage here. On offense, Baltimore clearly has the lead with a better rushing (due to blocking) and passing game, but Philadelphia clearly HAD the better rushing and passing defense when I initially wrote this section. In the light of recent rule changes, however, Philadelphia's pass coverage took a significant hit. All things considered, I think Baltimore has the edge, and put them as #1 in the NSFC, but I think it is close enough for a sim fuck. For the bet, however, I think slm wins this easily.
Before going on, I will address the recent rule change. Last year, it became public knowledge that WRs not only were serviceable DBs, but that they were better in coverage than most actual DBs. This is the latest in revelations that calling our sim engine a potato is insulting to potatos. I liked the idea of two-way players, but I felt they should be a passable patch to a team weakness, and not a better option. In most cases, this is exactly how it works. A DB playing receiver is less ideal than a receiver with the same TPE, and most positions don't translate well anywhere else. Famously, nothing works at RB.
The timing of the rule change has raised eyebrows. Last year, and several prior, Baltimore had Trey Willie as a two-way. This year, for the first time in ages, they lack a dominant WR. It is then, and only then, that two way players get banned. To make it more suspicious, the previous year was the first year they didn't have two solid WRs, and last year was the year teams became limited to only 1 two-way player. I will admit that this is concerning.
In the interest of full disclosure, here are two things about my views on this rule.
#1) I think banning it was the wrong move, and instead WRs should have just had their xp on defense lowered considerably.
#2) I still advised run_CMC to vote for the ban.
Part of the reason I urged for the vote was that one particular use of two way players was disgustingly overpowered. I considered it similar to playing an RB at WR back in...S4-ish? It was a case where it was BETTER to play out of position than to have the position called for. The other part was that Arizona had an active defensive back in the DSFL that we could call up. That second part shouldn't matter, but if we hadn't drafted Mughes, we probably would have voted against the ban, because we would have had no time to adjust to it.
To mitigate that second part being a factor, I strongly urge HO to make future rules summit proposals take place the following season. Holding a vote after free agency and the draft gives teams no chance to adjust without getting trade-raped.
Okay, back to the power rankings!
Yellowknife
QB: 1093
WR/TE: 688, 318, 303, 558
RB: 202, 141
OL: 550, 550, 550, 550, 350
DL: 404, 271, 198, 179, 152, 141
LB: 565
DB: 943, 780, 637, 296, 121
K: 312
Yellowknife's offense has undergone a significant and expensive overhaul. With a better QB and better wide receivers, Yellowknife will do a much better job moving the chains than last year. The sole remaining Pennington will be a fantasy stud this year, but Applehort, who the Wraiths gave up Antonio Summer and (effectively) Errol Maddox to acquire, also has Josh Parker, Glenn McPoyal and Budda Browning to target, all four of whom are significant upgrades to Bailey Cook, who began last year as the primary receiver. The running game sees a minor upgrade as well, largely due to a slightly more effective OL. Wizardry should be a very intriguing option, splitting snaps at FB, WR, and RB. Their defense is harder to get a handle on. I'll admit I was surprised by how intimidating their secondary looked. The trio of Taylor, Bly, and Lavelle are practically begging QBs to air it out against them, and their front seven, while clearly the weak link, isn't a disaster. After trading away both Penningtons and receiving basically just Chambers in return (I don't expect Piazza or Pitcher to play), I thought Yellowknife might move to the bottom. They are still comparable to Colorado, but I think Yellowknife has the edge due to their superior secondary and increased options on offense. When I initially wrote this, I had BAL and PHI neck and neck, with Yellowknife significantly behind, but Yellowknife appears to have gained some ground on the Liberty. In fact, I am moving them above Philadelphia. That's how significant a difference this rule made.
Colorado
QB: 1107
WR/TE: 1069, 290, 232, 201, 146
RB: 423, 216
OL: 750*5
DL: 198, 197, 81
LB: 531, 186, 139
DB: 400, 183, 171, 141, 130
K: 164
As I've mentioned multiple times, McCormick played below his TPE last year due to the position change limits, but this year he will begin the season as a complete QB. With the dominant Howard Miller to throw to, you know he's going to find the end zone in the first half of every game. James Bishop is no Dwayne Aaron, but is still a legit WR2 for fantasy based on how much he'll be fed, and is an early favorite for ORotY. After that, though, things get pretty shaky. His #3 receiver will either be Wachter or the newly-drafted Wright, and his TE Alvin Chipmunk continues to be a weakness. For the rushing game, Cansino appears to be the lead back, with Grau built as a proper fullback. Cansino is far from a top tier RB, but he has one major factor in his favor: blocking. While Chipmunk may not offer much as a blocker, a full line of T4 blockers is something no other team can claim, and with the added support from Grau, Cansino should be a viable option. On defense, the Yeti have only really maintained their front seven. It still won't threaten anyone, but it is slightly less likely to make mistakes. Ishigawa should see a mild decrease in tackles. The pass coverage has shown little growth, with newly transitioned Montgomery already the best DB on the team, and Colorado will remain the easiest team to pass on, especially now that their best DB, Howard Miller, will be limited to offense and special teams.
That's the NSFC. Now let's look at the ridiculously competitive ASFC. For this, since teams are so close, I am going to review them all in fairly random order and then rank them afterward.
San Jose
QB: 568
WR/TE: 605, 571, 399, 229, 219*
RB: 358, 302
OL: 550*5
DL: 203, 169, 136*
LB: 860, 731, 707
DB: 633, 562, 548, 471, 195
K: 123
When an S9 player is on page 2 of your roster, your team has a lot of young talent...or some players you need to remove from your roster. Maybe both. What can you say about a team that already has 2 of the best linebackers in the league and thinks "hey, whaddaya say we grab ourselves another LB?" We'll get to that later. First off, offense. Joliet Christ isn't quite where he needs to be to contend. I've mentioned "effective peak" for QB in the 800s, and Fitzpatrick started Week 1 of his 3rd season at 700. The best thing going for him is a pair of threatening wide receivers in Xavier Flash and Kazimir Oles. Brannigan clears the bar as a reliable target from TE, and at the moment it's unclear who the #4 target will be. Currently, Ty Justice has the lead with 229, but Jorel Tuck at 147 is on pace to catch up very quickly. For the Tuck brothers, I listed their TPE after this week's updates, because the current totals were extremely misleading. If management trusts Christ to air it out, lack of viable targets won't be the issue. In the running game, Jerrod Canton proved himself as a phenomenal young talent, and Orosz as more than competent depth. Their defense is a bit less certain. Bayley, Poopsie, and Troyski are a more than capable trio of corners, but the addition of Thad Pennington gives them someone over the top, which was San Jose's biggest weakness. Their front seven has three great linebackers, but a very weak DL. Expect them to have to blitz a lot to get any pressure, but expect the coverage to perform well enough while blitzing, too. If you go to San Jose without a run game, then it is game over. This roster is absolutely deadly to a lot of teams, most notably conference rival New Orleans, but after last year, I still worry that the offense can limit turnovers enough while still putting up points. The talent is definitely there, but I am still wary.
New Orleans
QB: 1295
WR/TE: 1059, 270, 321, 212
RB: 249
OL: 750, 750, 550, 550, 550
DL: 447, 194, 94
LB: 829, 518, 399, 349
DB: 778, 670, 246, 221
K: 170
Last year's Ultimus Champions. As amazing as it is to see such a strong team decline so much, they have been fighting off the rebuild for a while. QB Maximus is, by TPE, the best in the league, but, like McCormick, his options are less than ideal. Outside of Fyodorovich, his next-best receiver is a developing tight end, which doesn't bode well. A trade for Borro Gore gives New Orleans a running game to replace Smallwood, and with their above average OL I believe he'll perform adequately enough, but not near enough to carry games. On defense, the loss of Bayley is a significant one, but I don't think they are horrible without him. Oakes, Harrison, Hornbacher and Rove should be adequate, even if not threatening. The ASFC is the more volatile conference, and New Orleans is the most volatile team. Even when the odds are in their favor they default to risky gameplans, making them the most exciting team to watch, but the more I look at this roster, the less afraid I am of facing it.
Orange County
QB: 637
WR/TE: 957, 838, 375
RB: 501, 382
OL: 750, 550, 550, 550, 550
DL: 421, 332, 330, 192
LB: 821, 512, 206
DB: 1204, 612, 408, 247
K: 125
Well, the Orange County Otters went from appearing in 4 straight Ultimus games, then became the runner-up in 3 straight seasons, so naturally it is time to continue their decline and fall...up? Are you kidding me? Yeah, I'll do the breakdown in a minute, but I actually have Orange County as not only my favorite to win the ASFC, but currently my favorite to win the whole damn thing. Let's look at why. On offense, Showbiz has turned a corner, and still boasts the top WR duo in the league. The offensive line is slightly better than last year as well, leaving him free to air it out as well as adding a bit to Adams' running efficiency. With more reliable receivers, better blocking, and a good enough run game with some depth, I think this offense is impossible to stop, which is a lot, but not all they have going for them. On defense, I was really hoping regression was going to hit their front 4 harder than it really did. Winchester is in his 12th season, and he's STILL going to be damn near 500 TPE by week 1. They have 3 players on the line who can stop a play, then the best LB in the league to clean up whatever gets through. Their secondary boasts the best overall DB in the league with Jaylon Broxton, and the combination of Grithead, Spector, and Rice made them comfortable without putting Crush two way either.
Arizona
QB: 816
WR/TE: 723, 648, 510, 259, 249
RB: 261, 259
OL: 550, 550, 550, 550, 350
DL: 451, 402, 287, 189
LB: 451, 214, 204
DB: 737, 736, 323, 197
K: 962
Amazing how much a team's identity can change in a few seasons. In S9, the Outlaws had an amazing run game, a clearly bottom half pass game, and a capable defense. A year later, they had a slightly below average run game and pass game, and the defense had dropped off as well. In S11, they had a top 3 passing game, a bottom 2 run game, and a below average defense. This year, they may have the best passing offense, their run game looks to be 5th or so, and the defense confidently average (and only average due to a suspension). The biggest thing going against the offense is a tied for league-worst OL, but with Fitzpatrick's mobility, I doubt it will hurt them much. Willie and Squanch can be counted on for a lot of long touchdowns, and Shady should outperform Mack even with the worse OL thanks to extra blocking from TE Moore. In games where the run game needs to carry (such as against SJS and YKW), Asipi will flex between RB and WR, making them a nightmare against any defense. On defense, expect David, Reese, and Sackerman to create a lot of pressure. Reigning DPotY Selich should have even fewer blockers in his way to making plays. Morris and Barnes should be capable enough on the outside, but there are gaps to be found if QBs can hold onto the ball long enough.
Now, the final results:
NSFC
#1: Baltimore - the most complete team in the conference.
#2: Yellowknife - A good passing game and great CB duo gives them the edge in shootouts.
#3: Philadelphia - A lot of young talent, but they'll need one more season to get back into the postseason.
#4: Colorado - Still the league's worst defense, and not deep enough on offense to catch back up.
ASFC
#1: Orange County - The only team I feel has 0 weaknesses.
#2: Arizona - I think SJS has the slightly better roster, but Arizona has a better idea of what they need to do.
#3: San Jose - If Christ can turn it around big, I may regret this, but more than average improvement is needed.
#4: New Orleans - Just too many weaknesses to make up for.
Despite the rankings, I want to stress again how close this league is. There is not a single team that I think will be under 4 wins, or a single team I expect with more than 10, and I think even that is a bit bold.
Let me know what you think.