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Ready to be graded (2776 words)
Draft article (double media payout)
This article, like my previous one, examines a handful of rookies and attempts to predict which team might take them in next week's NSFL draft. The first article looked at players from the San Antonio Marshals; this article focuses on a player from each of the other DSFL teams. Again, this article is meant to be pure speculation, and all the information I used to draw my conclusions is publicly available. Some of these guesses might be wrong (in fact, I expect most of them to be wrong), but I figured I'd take a shot anyway. So without further ado, my official guesses:
Franklin Armstrong, QB (@moonlight)
I think it’s safe to say that Armstrong has been the DSFL’s biggest surprise this season. Not many people would have predicted that a quarterback picked in the 11th round would have had the kind of season Armstrong has had. Look at the numbers: 2,614 passing yards (second place) on 239 completions (also second place). 22 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions, and his passer rating of 86 is the best in the DSFL, beating out players like Cooter Bigsby and Corvo Havran. He also led his team to an NFC championship and an Ultimini title. I think it goes without saying that Armstrong will be the first quarterback taken in this year’s NSFL draft, and will have tremendous success in the next stage of his career.
When I started writing this article, I thought it would be easy to determine where Armstrong would end up. All the current NSFL teams are set at quarterback, so I was confident that Armstrong would end up with an expansion team. And it makes sense: Armstrong gets another year to improve on an already impressive career, and the team can rest easy knowing they’ll have a solid quarterback from day one. I thought this was a no-brainer. But then came the plot twist: two quarterbacks--Childish Gambino and Micycle McCormick--announced that season 15 would be their last season, and these announcements came on the same day. On top of that, New Orleans’ Borkus Maximus III took a huge regression hit, and one has to wonder how much longer he’ll be able to stay in the league. Suddenly, three teams have to figure out what they’re going to do at quarterback, and now, shockingly, Armstrong’s draft stock has risen even further. Baltimore, having drafted Corvo Havran last season, and New Orleans, whose quarterback hasn’t announced retirement at the time of this writing, are both a little more secure. Either of these teams could draft Armstrong, let him play in the DSFL during their quarterback’s final season (or possibly final, in New Orleans’ case), and have an NSFL-ready quarterback come season 16. However, as a season 15 draftee, Armstrong will be automatically protected in the upcoming expansion draft--Havran will not. So Baltimore, although they don’t technically need Armstrong at the moment, might take him anyway. That way, if Havran gets poached in the expansion draft, they’re still set at quarterback. Colorado, unfortunately, doesn’t have the same security as Baltimore does. Their quarterback is definitely retiring after this season, and they do not have another quarterback on roster. Taking Armstrong would give them great peace of mind going forward: they have an automatically protected quarterback ready to take over when McCormick hangs it up. It’s an interesting debate, and I think the Armstrong debate will be one of the hottest issues going into this draft. New Orleans is in the best position here, picking #2 and #3 overall. Austin and Louisville/Chicago have picks #5 and #6; if Armstrong does fall past the third pick, I’d expect one of those two teams to snag him. Anything can happen before and on draft day, though, and while players are the most curious about where they themselves end up, I think people will be eagerly waiting to hear Armstrong’s name called as well.
My Prediction: New Orleans
My Outrageous Prediction: Colorado trades for the third overall pick in order to draft Armstrong.
Ryan Leaf, Jr., DT (@ValorX77)
There are a lot of things you can say about Ryan Leaf, Jr. Most of them, at one point or another, have been said by Leaf himself. Out of all the prospects in this draft, Leaf is almost certainly the most polarizing. Thus, any discussion about him runs the risk of focusing less on pure stats and figures, and more on the things he’s said and written. So, in order to avoid falling into that trap, I will simply list some cold hard facts about Leaf, and leave you (dear reader) to draw your own conclusions about them:
- At the time of this writing, Leaf’s total TPE is listed at 93. That includes the 50 TPE applied at character creation, meaning Leaf has earned 43 TPE since he created.
- As a defensive tackle, Leaf recorded 11 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and forced one fumble. It should be noted that Leaf switched position midway through the season, and his stats are understandably lower than those of his counterparts, who played at DT all season long.
- Leaf has been active on both the forums and the Discord servers since joining the site. According to his forum profile, he is averaging just over two posts per day. Discord doesn’t keep track of data like that (as far as I know), but he participates in conversations there most every day.
My Prediction: Arizona
My Outrageous Prediction: Leaf declares a holdout and doesn’t play until after Week 4 of the regular season.
Martavius Mack, SS (@`Allplanet`)
Mack is another player I was in the Prospect Bowl with, and although he’s now a dirty dirty Luchadore, I still have a soft spot for the guy. He and I grew close during our time on the rollercoaster of emotions that was the Central Grizzlies, and I’m glad he found success in the DSFL. He ended the season with 83 tackles, which is third among safeties. He also generated some turnovers for Tijuana: he picked off two passes and recorded a forced fumble and fumble recovery. His activity level has dropped recently: he’s not in Discord as much as he used to be, and his forum activity at this point is largely in activity checks and point tasks. That’s not bad by any means, but unfortunately it’s been a while since he’s actually applied that TPE. While I don’t know for sure, I’d argue that he’s waiting to claim that TPE until he gets drafted: that way, he can build exactly how his new team wants him to build. The flip side of that decision is that your player seems worse than they are, which could hurt his draft stock. But speaking from experience, he’s a great guy to have in the locker room, and I think he’ll have no problem succeeding in the NSFL.
There are several potential landing spots for Mack, but things get a bit muddied when you consider he’ll probably fall in the draft. By the time the draft gets to him, teams that need safeties might already have drafted them. I imagine that Mack will be drafted and end up spending the next season in the DSFL, working towards finalizing his build so he’s ready for the NSFL. In that case, the expansion teams (Austin and Louisville/Chicago) are the most logical choices. Their players are already going to spend next season in the DSFL anyway, which would give Mack plenty of time to develop. And one of the most important aspects of building a team from scratch is establishing a good locker room attitude early, and Mack would be a great guy to help do that. Of the existing teams, New Orleans could use a safety who is both active and a positive locker room presence. Arizona, with their abundance of draft picks, could take a chance on him too: one of their two safeties is a 57 TPE inactive, so Mack could land a starting job right away. Ultimately, while I think Mack is bound to go late in the draft, I think that in a few seasons teams will regret not taking him when they had the chance.
My Prediction: Austin
My Outrageous Prediction: In Season 17, Mack will be a finalist for Safety of the Year.
Terry Taffy, RB (@KingCollins)
Expectations for Taffy were extremely high coming into the season. And why wouldn’t they be? Taffy dominated the Prospect Bowl, rushing for six touchdowns, the most of any running back, and 565 yards. And yeah, the Prospect Bowl is pretty meaningless, but the hype around “The Candyman” was huge during that time. He was--and remains--active on the forums and on the Discord, and people assumed that his success with the Southwest Foxes would carry over into the DSFL. But, unfortunately, that didn’t seem to be the case. There are, I think, two big reasons for this, and their names are Farley Hank and Ryan Leaf, Jr. More specifically, the problem is that they all ended up on Kansas City. Farley Hank was the Coyotes’ first round pick, Leaf was their third, and Taffy was their fifth. Two running backs being on a single roster isn’t typically an issue--two running backs and a QB specifically built to be a running QB is. The team also suffered from massive conflicts in the locker room: early in the season, reports circulated that the Kansas City players were demoralized by their 0-5 start, as well as the highly public friction between Leaf and established Coyotes quarterback Rose Jenkins. All of this resulted in a less than optimal season for Taffy. He rushed for 837 yards on 197 attempts (averaging 4.2 yards per carry), and only scored two touchdowns. To his credit, he stayed around and worked to get better--he’s currently sitting at 216 TPE, the second most of any rookie running back. But his poor showing this season will definitely affect his draft stock.
The other force working against Taffy is the low demand for running backs at the NSFL level. Most teams have their first-option running back locked up for the next two or three seasons--even Austin, a team so new it doesn’t even have a mascot yet, will be getting Dick Wizardry from Yellowknife due to league GM/player rules. All of this to say, Taffy will have a hard time finding a job in the NSFL right off the bat. But that’s doesn’t mean he won’t find that job eventually. Austin has Wizardry, yes, but it’ll be another season before that team plays a single down, which gives Taffy time to refine his game. They’ll also need a second option at running back, so having both Wizardry and Taffy could help them establish a fearsome ground game early on. Some established teams could use him, too; Arizona’s Borro Gore was recently auto-retired, and with their surplus of picks, Arizona might snap Taffy up in one of the later rounds. Over in Colorado, Mark Grau is starting to feel the effects of regression, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Yeti grabbed Taffy as a potential future replacement for him. I think the best plan for Taffy is to spend another season in the DSFL. That gives him time to develop and be ready when regression catches up to the current crop of running backs. I don’t doubt that he has the ability to be a top-tier running back in the NSFL, especially if he’s put in the right system. I think that, at the end of the day, Terry Taffy will have a...sweet career.
My Prediction: Louisville/Chicago
My Outrageous Prediction: “The Candyman” is the highest scoring running back in the DSFL next season.
Nacho Varga, WR (@Fordhammer)
If the draft was based on nothing but player names and signature cards, Nacho Varga would be a lock for first overall pick. But alas, that isn’t how the draft works (and our world is slightly worse for it). Despite that, Varga doesn’t have to worry going into this draft. Palm Beach might have struggled this season, but he got a respectable season out of it. He did struggle to find the endzone, only scoring two touchdowns. But he did pick up 552 yards on 52 catches--averaging a first down per catch (10.6 yards) is nothing to sneeze at. He’s also been highly active on the forums and Discord: his “DSFL Draft Deep-Dive” series of articles in particular are insightful and well written. His total TPE could be better (197 TPE, fourth among rookie wide receivers), but that’s still a respectable number, and when coupled with everything else about him as a player, it becomes a non-issue.
Varga is coming into the league at an exciting time, and he’s set himself up to have great success down the line. The most obvious landing spot for Varga is one of the two expansion teams. Because the expansion teams won’t actually play until season 16, Varga has an entire season to develop and improve in the DSFL, which would make him even more deadly by the time he hits the NSFL. Louisville/Chicago is gaining a star in Kazimir Oles, but after another season of development, Varga could be a solid second option for the team. Austin could use him too: with Dick Wizardry on the ground, Varga could help establish the team’s aerial game. That’s not to say there aren’t established franchises that could use him, however. Colorado currently has an inactive wide receiver on roster; worse than that, his contract for $1,000,000 goes through next season. The Yeti could let Varga develop while they ride out that contract, then call him up when they dump it after next season. San Jose might use Varga to help patch the hole that Oles will leave when he departs for Louisville/Chicago. Trey Willie (yes, that Trey Willie) was just auto-retired; Arizona could give Varga the chance to start right away, if he wanted. Varga’s situation is pretty win-win: Either he gets to immediately start in the NSFL and have a solid season, or he can spend another season refining his game in the DSFL. It’s a good position to be in, as both a player and a team looking to draft that player. Varga might not be the highest-rated wide receiver on some draft boards, but in a few seasons, he’ll be looked back on as a steal.
My Prediction: San Jose
My Outrageous Prediction: Varga catches a game-winning touchdown to send San Jose to the season 16 playoffs.