As I posted in the further study section of my S20 DSFL TPE claiming study, one open question is "How well do DSFL TPE claimed predict NSFL results (both TPE claimed and stats)?" The S21 NSFL season has yet to happen, so I'm going to try and make good use of some free time and analyze the S20 draft class in the fashion I analyzed the S21 class and see if there are any patterns or learnings which could make DSFL TPE claiming useful in a predictive fashion.
(Other reactions to my analysis suggested that the other open question re: my chosen TPE window disadvantaging players who did more pre-draft claiming was in fact an issue - higher TPE totals seemed quite important based on peoples' reactions. I don't have any good ideas on how to correct for that right now but it's an area I'm trying to think about. I will be looking at the TPE claiming ranking vs. draft position and I'm thinking about using claimed plus TPE at time of draft to create a composite score somehow but that's probably some ways off.)
For S20, the first DSFL game was 1/23 and I used the previous update day of 1/18 as my starting point. The first DSFL game of S19 was 12/3 so I'll be using 11/30-12/28 for my TPE gain range. I considered anyone with no updates after 11/30 to be inactive and excluded from gain analysis. Conceptually, someone could have not claimed any TPE during the S19 DSFL season but then resumed activity after. This was the case for Jamie Nkiah and Darnell Johnson[/url so I removed them from the .
[url=https://tpetracker.herokuapp.com/player?playerId=16427]Jah Bur'Berry was also an interesting case as apparently there was a math error with TPE claiming and he actually lost TPE in the early weeks of the season, though he still ended up with a net gain.
Data reference: I looked at 38 S20 players. I considered 14 of them to be active (though as mentioned above, 2 became active again after 12/28). For the active players, the median TPE gained from 11/30 to 12/28 was 57.5 and the standard deviation was about 25.66 (vs. 63 and also just over 29 for S21 players during the S20 DSFL season). I did discard the two players who have resumed activity rather than counting their 0 TPE gained for the median/stddev. All players were copied from team rosters on the TPE tracker on 2/23. For anyone trying to reproduce my work, the player Dre Uzond retired before the draft, so while he does show up as an S20 player in the TPE tracker he was not drafted.
Categories
As with my S20 analysis, I divided players into 5 categories:
* Inactive - no points claimed from 11/30-12/28
* Top claimer - claimed more than 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 84 or more TPE)
* Above median claimer - claimed within 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 58-83)
* Below median claimer - claimed within 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 32-57)
* Bottom claimer - claimed fewer than 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 31 or less TPE)
Top everyone per position
This draft class had 38 players and only WR had more than 5, so I'll just include everyone. I'll be looking at TPE claim rate, draft position (overall and within the position), TPE gained since 12/28, and current TPE. I'm not going to pull up NSFL season stats because I'm lazy and I assume current TPE tends to track those. I'm also not going to link to each player's TPE tracker because I'm lazy and pasting the URLs is time-consuming.
Quarterback
The quarterback position had no players in this draft. Awkward.
Running Backs
The running back position had 4 total players with 3 active and 1 inactive.
1. Siddhu Sarvepally, 86 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 15th overall/2nd RB, 86 TPE claimed since 12/28, 222 current TPE.
2. Darrel Williams, 67 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 7th overall/1st RB, 170 TPE claimed since 12/28, 406 current TPE
3. Ricardo Rose, 40 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 19th overall/3rd RB, 53 TPE claimed since 12/28, 167 current TPE
4. Colonel Tushfinger, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 25th overall/4th RB
Sarvepally was the higher TPE claimer in the season but Williams had a huge lead in TPE (236 vs 136 at time of draft). Williams had the higher claim rate since joining the NSFL and looks like the correct higher pick but Sarvepally isn't a slouch.
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position has 9 total players with 5 active and 4 inactive
1. Jacoby Clay, 99 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 5th overall/2nd WR, 129 TPE claimed since 12/28, 295 current TPE
2. Randy Vuxta, 96 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 4th overall/1st WR, 92 TPE claimed since 12/28, 296 current TPE
3. Tash Thompson, 28 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 24th overall/5th WR, 0 TPE claimed since 12/28, 122 current TPE
4. Kemorian Moore, 27 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 22nd overall/4th WR, 56 TPE claimed since 12/28, 133 current TPE
5. Jah Bur’Berry, 23 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 21st overall/3rd WR, 111 TPE claimed since 12/28, 305 current TPE
6. Darnell Johnson, inactive at time of draft but did come back and make a 12 TPE claim on 1/11 but has since returned to inactivity, drafted 32nd overall/6th WR
6. Bismo Funyuns, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 38th overall/7th WR
Miles Royal, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 39th overall/8th WR
Emilio Cortez, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 40th overall/9th WR
Clay and Vuxta both started strong and have kept it up. Bur'Berry looks like a steal now - very clearly his low claim rate during the DSFL season was not predictive. Bur'Berry also had 171 total TPE entering the season so a lower claim rate may have been reflecting fewer tasks left available to do. Thompson seems to have gone inactive during the season and so I think that led to Moore being selected over him.
Tight Ends
The tight end position has 4 total players with 2 active and 2 inactive.
1. Blake Gragg, 39 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 9th overall/1st TE, 82 TPE claimed since 12/28, 171 current TPE
2. Ben Kenobi, 39 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 18th overall/2nd TE, 55 TPE claimed since 12/28, 144 total TPE
3. David Donaldson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 28th overall/3rd TE
4. Dave Casper jr, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 30th overall/4th TE
With Gragg and Kenobi having the same TPE claim rate, there clearly wasn't a way to differentiate at the time of the draft. Both in fact had the same total TPE on 12/28 so I'm wondering if Gragg going off the board almost a full round earlier reflected a team with a severe need at TE.
Offensive Line
The offensive line position has 1 player and he was inactive.
1. Pancake Maker, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 36th overall/only OL
Maker wins my vote for best name of the draft at least (and yes, that's over McWigglebutts and McCringleberry - no apologies) but has been a non-factor in terms of actual TPE claiming.
Defensive Tackle
The defensive tackle position has 4 total players with 2 active and 2 inactive.
1. Reggie Culbertson, 96 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 3rd overall/1st DT, 98 TPE claimed since 12/28, 244 total TPE
2. Oliver McWigglebutts, 15 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 26th overall/2nd DT, 0 TPE claimed since 12/28, 72 overall TPE
3. George Bjornsson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 34th overall/3rd DT
4. Hingle McCringleberry, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 37th overall/4th DT
Culbertson was the clear DT standout in claim rate and has kept it up. This seems well-reflected in his 3rd-overall selection.
Defensive End
The defensive end position has 5 total players with 3 active and 2 inactive.
1. Kyle Idlewyld, 91 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 1st overall/1st DE, 154 TPE claimed since 12/28, 337 current TPE
2. Bobby Boucher, 70 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 11th overall/3rd DE, 92 TPE claimed since 12/28, 254 total TPE
3. Hal Fassingit, 59 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 8th overall/2nd DE, 107 TPE claimed since 12/28, 216 total TPE
4. Barnabas Cole, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 27th overall/4th DE
5. Randall Jimmerson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 29th overall/5th DE
I'm surprised to see that Fassingit went before Boucher here, but all for the DE position at least the early activity seems to be reflected in continued activity so far.
Linebacker
The linebacker position has 3 total players who were all active.
1. Thor Kirkby, 68 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 6th overall/1st LB, 145 TPE claimed since 12/28, 298 total TPE
2. Inspectah Deck, 56 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 12th overall/2nd LB, 140 TPE claimed since 12/28, 265 total TPE
3. Galf Wilf, 55 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 17th overall/3rd LB, 194 TPE claimed since 12/28, 366 total TPE
Linebacker had no inactives at the time of the draft and all 3 have kept up a torrid pace of TPE claiming. Wilf looks to be in the mix for top steal of the draft, having the second highest total TPE of any S20 player.
Cornerback
The cornerback position has 2 total players who were both active
1. Victor Moreno, 97 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 10th overall/2nd CB, 99 TPE claimed since 12/28, 274 total TPE
2. Desmond Scarlett, 63 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 2nd overall/1st CB, 168 TPE claimed since 12/28, 342 total TPE
In-season claim rate clearly doesn't explain the 2nd overall selection of Scarlett here but both players have sustained thir activity. Scarlett is actually 3rd in TPE claimed since 12/28 for the S20 class but as the second overall that seems more like justification than something unexpected.
Safety
The safety position has 3 total players with 2 active and 1 inactive at the time of the draft.
1. Awkward Sexjoke, 59 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 20th overall/2nd S, 154 TPE claimed since 12/28, 323 total TPE
2. Warren Stephens, 29 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 13th overall/1st S, 166 TPE claimed since 12/28, 270 total TPE
3. Jamie Nkiah, inactive at time of draft with 50 TPE, drafted 33rd overall/3rd S, 151 TPE claimed since 12/28, 201 total TPE
Looking at the stats I'm surprised to see Stephens getting selected over Sexjoke here. Certainly they both look like fine selection when it comes to claim rate but it does make me wonder if there's some measurable explaining the difference or if it was personality or interviews that caused the selection order. Bkiah also shows up here as the clear steal of the draft. Any inactive player coming back and being active is likely to be a steal and Nkiah's been claiming TPE at a solid rate.
Kicker/Punter
The kicker/punter position has 3 total players with 2 active and 1 inactive.
1. Silver Banana, 56 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 16th overall/2nd K, 112 TPE claimed since 12/28, 235 total TPE
2. Venus Powers, 55 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 14th overall/1st K, 120 TPE claimed since 12/28, 345 total TPE
3. Vince Hammerson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 23rd overall/3rd K
Powers' selection over Banana seems clearly attributable to higher base TPE at the time of the draft. Both players had very similar claim rates during the season and since so the higher starting point results in a higher state despite the similar trajectories since the DSFL season.
More analysis
Here's a picture:
The x-axis (bottom) is each active player's TPE claimed from 11/30-12/28 while the y-axis (left side) is each player's TPE claimed since 12/28. I did include Nkiah and Johnson in the graph (who were inactive at the time of the draft but have claimed TPE since then).
I didn't bother doing a fit line (because I don't know how) or to do any R^2 analysis (because I'm lazy), but I will claim that high first DSFL season TPE claim rate is a good predictor of high first NSFL season claim rate. The lowest TPE claimed since 12/28 by players with 55+ TPE claimed from 11/30-12/28 was 86. 55 is just a bit below the median of TPE claimed by active players (57.5, or 59 if I include the 2 players that were inactive at time of draft). More generally, low TPE claims in the 11/30-12/28 range weren't accurately predictive of low TPE claim rate since 12/28, and in fact the 4th highest TPE claimer since 12/28 only had 29 TPE claimed in the 11/30-12/28 timeframe. So, sadly, I think that DSFL TPE claim rate will not be a magic tool to figure out the best picks for NSFL team. At least I had fun moving numbers around. And hopefully some readers found some useful information!
Bonus: Top steals
I could try to do a mock draft based on my analysis like I did for the S21 NSFL draft but I'm way too lazy to try and figure out what team needs were then so instead I'll just cover top steals from the draft.
1. Jamie Nkiah, Safety - 33rd overall pick, 201 total TPE
Nkiah was inactive at the time of the draft and I don't think teams can really plan around getting inactive players to return, but this is clearly the top steal of the draft, being basically the only playable player from the 4th round and better than all but one players in the 3rd round.
2. Awkward Sexjoke, Safety - 20th overall pick, 323 total TPE
Sexjoke seems to have been a solid prospect at the time of the draft so I'm surprised to see that he fell to the 20th pick.
3. Jah Bur'Berry, Wide Receiver - 21st overall pick, 305 total TPE
As I said in the WR section, Bur'Berry looks like a great selection in hind sight. His TPE total is just ahead of the 2 WRs taken ahead of him at the 4th and 5th picks so getting him in the 3rd round seems great.
4. Galf Wilf, Linebacker - 17th overall pick, 366 total TPE
Wilf has been the top claimer of the class since 12/28 and so getting him later in the second round seems like a great deal.
5. Darrel Williams, Running Back - 7th overall, 406 total TPE
I assume Williams slipped to the second half of the first round mostly due to team needs, but his 406 total TPE leads the S20 class and his 170 TPE since 12/28 is second after Wilf. I said higher up in the article that I was too lazy to look up stats, but I did do it for him. Williams was 14th in rushing yards with 142 carries at a 4.0y/a average and 12 receptions. Not exactly breaking the league open, but still seems like a good rotational player.
(Other reactions to my analysis suggested that the other open question re: my chosen TPE window disadvantaging players who did more pre-draft claiming was in fact an issue - higher TPE totals seemed quite important based on peoples' reactions. I don't have any good ideas on how to correct for that right now but it's an area I'm trying to think about. I will be looking at the TPE claiming ranking vs. draft position and I'm thinking about using claimed plus TPE at time of draft to create a composite score somehow but that's probably some ways off.)
For S20, the first DSFL game was 1/23 and I used the previous update day of 1/18 as my starting point. The first DSFL game of S19 was 12/3 so I'll be using 11/30-12/28 for my TPE gain range. I considered anyone with no updates after 11/30 to be inactive and excluded from gain analysis. Conceptually, someone could have not claimed any TPE during the S19 DSFL season but then resumed activity after. This was the case for Jamie Nkiah and Darnell Johnson[/url so I removed them from the .
[url=https://tpetracker.herokuapp.com/player?playerId=16427]Jah Bur'Berry was also an interesting case as apparently there was a math error with TPE claiming and he actually lost TPE in the early weeks of the season, though he still ended up with a net gain.
Data reference: I looked at 38 S20 players. I considered 14 of them to be active (though as mentioned above, 2 became active again after 12/28). For the active players, the median TPE gained from 11/30 to 12/28 was 57.5 and the standard deviation was about 25.66 (vs. 63 and also just over 29 for S21 players during the S20 DSFL season). I did discard the two players who have resumed activity rather than counting their 0 TPE gained for the median/stddev. All players were copied from team rosters on the TPE tracker on 2/23. For anyone trying to reproduce my work, the player Dre Uzond retired before the draft, so while he does show up as an S20 player in the TPE tracker he was not drafted.
Categories
As with my S20 analysis, I divided players into 5 categories:
* Inactive - no points claimed from 11/30-12/28
* Top claimer - claimed more than 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 84 or more TPE)
* Above median claimer - claimed within 1 standard deviation above the median (aka 58-83)
* Below median claimer - claimed within 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 32-57)
* Bottom claimer - claimed fewer than 1 standard deviation below the median (aka 31 or less TPE)
Top everyone per position
This draft class had 38 players and only WR had more than 5, so I'll just include everyone. I'll be looking at TPE claim rate, draft position (overall and within the position), TPE gained since 12/28, and current TPE. I'm not going to pull up NSFL season stats because I'm lazy and I assume current TPE tends to track those. I'm also not going to link to each player's TPE tracker because I'm lazy and pasting the URLs is time-consuming.
Quarterback
The quarterback position had no players in this draft. Awkward.
Running Backs
The running back position had 4 total players with 3 active and 1 inactive.
1. Siddhu Sarvepally, 86 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 15th overall/2nd RB, 86 TPE claimed since 12/28, 222 current TPE.
2. Darrel Williams, 67 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 7th overall/1st RB, 170 TPE claimed since 12/28, 406 current TPE
3. Ricardo Rose, 40 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 19th overall/3rd RB, 53 TPE claimed since 12/28, 167 current TPE
4. Colonel Tushfinger, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 25th overall/4th RB
Sarvepally was the higher TPE claimer in the season but Williams had a huge lead in TPE (236 vs 136 at time of draft). Williams had the higher claim rate since joining the NSFL and looks like the correct higher pick but Sarvepally isn't a slouch.
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position has 9 total players with 5 active and 4 inactive
1. Jacoby Clay, 99 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 5th overall/2nd WR, 129 TPE claimed since 12/28, 295 current TPE
2. Randy Vuxta, 96 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 4th overall/1st WR, 92 TPE claimed since 12/28, 296 current TPE
3. Tash Thompson, 28 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 24th overall/5th WR, 0 TPE claimed since 12/28, 122 current TPE
4. Kemorian Moore, 27 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 22nd overall/4th WR, 56 TPE claimed since 12/28, 133 current TPE
5. Jah Bur’Berry, 23 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 21st overall/3rd WR, 111 TPE claimed since 12/28, 305 current TPE
6. Darnell Johnson, inactive at time of draft but did come back and make a 12 TPE claim on 1/11 but has since returned to inactivity, drafted 32nd overall/6th WR
6. Bismo Funyuns, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 38th overall/7th WR
Miles Royal, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 39th overall/8th WR
Emilio Cortez, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 40th overall/9th WR
Clay and Vuxta both started strong and have kept it up. Bur'Berry looks like a steal now - very clearly his low claim rate during the DSFL season was not predictive. Bur'Berry also had 171 total TPE entering the season so a lower claim rate may have been reflecting fewer tasks left available to do. Thompson seems to have gone inactive during the season and so I think that led to Moore being selected over him.
Tight Ends
The tight end position has 4 total players with 2 active and 2 inactive.
1. Blake Gragg, 39 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 9th overall/1st TE, 82 TPE claimed since 12/28, 171 current TPE
2. Ben Kenobi, 39 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 18th overall/2nd TE, 55 TPE claimed since 12/28, 144 total TPE
3. David Donaldson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 28th overall/3rd TE
4. Dave Casper jr, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 30th overall/4th TE
With Gragg and Kenobi having the same TPE claim rate, there clearly wasn't a way to differentiate at the time of the draft. Both in fact had the same total TPE on 12/28 so I'm wondering if Gragg going off the board almost a full round earlier reflected a team with a severe need at TE.
Offensive Line
The offensive line position has 1 player and he was inactive.
1. Pancake Maker, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 36th overall/only OL
Maker wins my vote for best name of the draft at least (and yes, that's over McWigglebutts and McCringleberry - no apologies) but has been a non-factor in terms of actual TPE claiming.
Defensive Tackle
The defensive tackle position has 4 total players with 2 active and 2 inactive.
1. Reggie Culbertson, 96 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 3rd overall/1st DT, 98 TPE claimed since 12/28, 244 total TPE
2. Oliver McWigglebutts, 15 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 26th overall/2nd DT, 0 TPE claimed since 12/28, 72 overall TPE
3. George Bjornsson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 34th overall/3rd DT
4. Hingle McCringleberry, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 37th overall/4th DT
Culbertson was the clear DT standout in claim rate and has kept it up. This seems well-reflected in his 3rd-overall selection.
Defensive End
The defensive end position has 5 total players with 3 active and 2 inactive.
1. Kyle Idlewyld, 91 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 1st overall/1st DE, 154 TPE claimed since 12/28, 337 current TPE
2. Bobby Boucher, 70 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 11th overall/3rd DE, 92 TPE claimed since 12/28, 254 total TPE
3. Hal Fassingit, 59 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 8th overall/2nd DE, 107 TPE claimed since 12/28, 216 total TPE
4. Barnabas Cole, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 27th overall/4th DE
5. Randall Jimmerson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 29th overall/5th DE
I'm surprised to see that Fassingit went before Boucher here, but all for the DE position at least the early activity seems to be reflected in continued activity so far.
Linebacker
The linebacker position has 3 total players who were all active.
1. Thor Kirkby, 68 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 6th overall/1st LB, 145 TPE claimed since 12/28, 298 total TPE
2. Inspectah Deck, 56 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 12th overall/2nd LB, 140 TPE claimed since 12/28, 265 total TPE
3. Galf Wilf, 55 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 17th overall/3rd LB, 194 TPE claimed since 12/28, 366 total TPE
Linebacker had no inactives at the time of the draft and all 3 have kept up a torrid pace of TPE claiming. Wilf looks to be in the mix for top steal of the draft, having the second highest total TPE of any S20 player.
Cornerback
The cornerback position has 2 total players who were both active
1. Victor Moreno, 97 TPE claimed, top claimer, drafted 10th overall/2nd CB, 99 TPE claimed since 12/28, 274 total TPE
2. Desmond Scarlett, 63 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 2nd overall/1st CB, 168 TPE claimed since 12/28, 342 total TPE
In-season claim rate clearly doesn't explain the 2nd overall selection of Scarlett here but both players have sustained thir activity. Scarlett is actually 3rd in TPE claimed since 12/28 for the S20 class but as the second overall that seems more like justification than something unexpected.
Safety
The safety position has 3 total players with 2 active and 1 inactive at the time of the draft.
1. Awkward Sexjoke, 59 TPE claimed, above median claimer, drafted 20th overall/2nd S, 154 TPE claimed since 12/28, 323 total TPE
2. Warren Stephens, 29 TPE claimed, bottom claimer, drafted 13th overall/1st S, 166 TPE claimed since 12/28, 270 total TPE
3. Jamie Nkiah, inactive at time of draft with 50 TPE, drafted 33rd overall/3rd S, 151 TPE claimed since 12/28, 201 total TPE
Looking at the stats I'm surprised to see Stephens getting selected over Sexjoke here. Certainly they both look like fine selection when it comes to claim rate but it does make me wonder if there's some measurable explaining the difference or if it was personality or interviews that caused the selection order. Bkiah also shows up here as the clear steal of the draft. Any inactive player coming back and being active is likely to be a steal and Nkiah's been claiming TPE at a solid rate.
Kicker/Punter
The kicker/punter position has 3 total players with 2 active and 1 inactive.
1. Silver Banana, 56 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 16th overall/2nd K, 112 TPE claimed since 12/28, 235 total TPE
2. Venus Powers, 55 TPE claimed, below median claimer, drafted 14th overall/1st K, 120 TPE claimed since 12/28, 345 total TPE
3. Vince Hammerson, inactive at time of draft and still inactive, drafted 23rd overall/3rd K
Powers' selection over Banana seems clearly attributable to higher base TPE at the time of the draft. Both players had very similar claim rates during the season and since so the higher starting point results in a higher state despite the similar trajectories since the DSFL season.
More analysis
Here's a picture:
The x-axis (bottom) is each active player's TPE claimed from 11/30-12/28 while the y-axis (left side) is each player's TPE claimed since 12/28. I did include Nkiah and Johnson in the graph (who were inactive at the time of the draft but have claimed TPE since then).
I didn't bother doing a fit line (because I don't know how) or to do any R^2 analysis (because I'm lazy), but I will claim that high first DSFL season TPE claim rate is a good predictor of high first NSFL season claim rate. The lowest TPE claimed since 12/28 by players with 55+ TPE claimed from 11/30-12/28 was 86. 55 is just a bit below the median of TPE claimed by active players (57.5, or 59 if I include the 2 players that were inactive at time of draft). More generally, low TPE claims in the 11/30-12/28 range weren't accurately predictive of low TPE claim rate since 12/28, and in fact the 4th highest TPE claimer since 12/28 only had 29 TPE claimed in the 11/30-12/28 timeframe. So, sadly, I think that DSFL TPE claim rate will not be a magic tool to figure out the best picks for NSFL team. At least I had fun moving numbers around. And hopefully some readers found some useful information!
Bonus: Top steals
I could try to do a mock draft based on my analysis like I did for the S21 NSFL draft but I'm way too lazy to try and figure out what team needs were then so instead I'll just cover top steals from the draft.
1. Jamie Nkiah, Safety - 33rd overall pick, 201 total TPE
Nkiah was inactive at the time of the draft and I don't think teams can really plan around getting inactive players to return, but this is clearly the top steal of the draft, being basically the only playable player from the 4th round and better than all but one players in the 3rd round.
2. Awkward Sexjoke, Safety - 20th overall pick, 323 total TPE
Sexjoke seems to have been a solid prospect at the time of the draft so I'm surprised to see that he fell to the 20th pick.
3. Jah Bur'Berry, Wide Receiver - 21st overall pick, 305 total TPE
As I said in the WR section, Bur'Berry looks like a great selection in hind sight. His TPE total is just ahead of the 2 WRs taken ahead of him at the 4th and 5th picks so getting him in the 3rd round seems great.
4. Galf Wilf, Linebacker - 17th overall pick, 366 total TPE
Wilf has been the top claimer of the class since 12/28 and so getting him later in the second round seems like a great deal.
5. Darrel Williams, Running Back - 7th overall, 406 total TPE
I assume Williams slipped to the second half of the first round mostly due to team needs, but his 406 total TPE leads the S20 class and his 170 TPE since 12/28 is second after Wilf. I said higher up in the article that I was too lazy to look up stats, but I did do it for him. Williams was 14th in rushing yards with 142 carries at a 4.0y/a average and 12 receptions. Not exactly breaking the league open, but still seems like a good rotational player.
Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki