Following a brief hiatus during which I was unfortunately otherwise occupied, I am back for another edition of the weekly community power rankings series! We have made it through eight weeks of the NSFL regular season and it has been thrilling. The NSFC is still as wide open as ever and Orange County has shown a hint of weakness, making the ASFC race a little bit more interesting. Before I spoil it all, here are this week’s community power rankings! Thank you to the nine people other than me who voted and, as always, if you’d like to participate please reach out to me and I will send you the poll as soon as it is created.
Last place in the eyes of the esteemed voters this week belongs to Arizona. The Outlaws are coming off a 12 point loss to last week’s bottom finisher. Losing to the previously last place team is usually a good way to find yourself at the bottom of the list, especially when your record now matches that team at an ugly 2-6. The bad news doesn’t stop there for the Outlaws, though, as they also find themselves down two places from eighth to tenth in the expected wins projections, where they are now predicted to win 3.8 games on the season. I’m not sure it’s totally realistic to expect a team that has won two games out of eight to win two more out of the remaining five, but it’s theoretically possible. Through the rest of the season, Arizona matches up against New Orleans, Austin, Baltimore, Colorado, and Yellowknife. I do not believe Arizona has much of a chance against New Orleans, who are my favorite at this point to win the Ultimus. The odds are slightly better against Baltimore, but still not very good. Arizona’s defense leads the league in points allowed and Baltimore’s offense has been difficult to stop this season. That means the Outlaws would have to win two games against Austin, Colorado, or Yellowknife. I don’t believe they win more than one of these games. One half of the voters placed Arizona in dead last and their highest vote was seventh.
San Jose fans who let out a sigh of relief when realizing they weren’t last can take it back now. The SaberCats were only one point ahead of Arizona in this week’s power rankings. Following week five, which is the last time I published the power rankings, San Jose was put in last. This week, they escape to ninth, edging out the Outlaws by the slimmest of margins (it was one point). The SaberCats defeated the Outlaws, raising their record to 2-6 on the season. They fared slightly better in expected wins, where they move from tenth to eighth, improving their expected win total from 3.6 to 4.4. San Jose is another team I have a hard time seeing winning four games on the season. In the remainder of the season, they square off with Orange County, Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Colorado. The game against Orange County will almost certainly be a loss, and I don’t expect them to beat Baltimore either. Philadelphia has looked beatable this season, so it is entirely possible they could pull a win out of that game. To achieve four wins, though, they would have to win another game against either Chicago or Colorado. I expect them to manage one win, but two may be a bit of a stretch for the remainder of the season. San Jose received two last place votes and half of the total voters slotted them into ninth.
Eighth place this week belongs to Philadelphia, who were in a tie with Chicago for 7th/8th in the last installment of this series. The Liberty ended their lengthy losing streak with a win at home against the Yeti, bringing their record up to 2-6. Although the win was enough to elevate their expected win total from 3.7 to 4.2, the increase was not enough to bring them up out of ninth place. The Liberty have Baltimore, Chicago, Yellowknife, San Jose, and Austin on the plate for the remainder of their season. Baltimore is likely the least winnable of those games, but with so many division games remaining and being only one game behind Chicago, it is entirely possible Philadelphia could still claim a slot in the playoffs. Whether this is likely is another question altogether. The Liberty were blown out 45-13 in their last matchup against Chicago. Whether this is indicative of a future loss or just ammunition to put some fire in their bellies for the second matchup remains to be seen. The Liberty received two last place votes, though the majority of voters slotted them in eighth or higher. One voter has them all the way up into sixth place.
Seventh place was bestowed upon Chicago, who was tied for 7th/8th with the Liberty following week five. The Butchers spent week eight losing to Baltimore in a game that had the unusual score of 10-5 at the half. They now sit at 3-5, one game ahead of last place Philadelphia and only two games behind division leading Baltimore. Despite the loss and a decrease of .1 in expected wins that dropped them to 6.3, Chicago sits fourth in the expected wins projections. Still on their plate this season is Austin, Philadelphia, San Jose, Orange County, and New Orleans. The back to back challenge of Orange County and New Orleans is rough, but it seems entirely possible San Jose will win at least two of those games, and possibly three. Philadelphia and San Jose are games I expect Chicago to at least be competitive in and Austin has not exactly been impressive to date this season. Chicago received votes as high as fourth, but half the voters saw them in seventh and another all the way in ninth.
The first team out of the top half in this week’s standings goes to Colorado, who missed out on belonging to the top half by just five points. In the previous edition, Colorado was tied with Austin for 4th/5th. There were two ties last time. Fortunately we avoided such travesty this time around. The Yeti fell on the road to Philadelphia in week eight, costing them a spot in the top five. In terms of expected wins, Colorado fares slightly better and just squeezes into the top half at 6.2 expected wins, behind Chicago by just .1. At an even 4-4, Colorado seems as good a team as any to hit their six win projection. Next week, the Yeti face off against the Wraiths, who also own a 4-4 record and would like to elevate their seeding in the playoffs. The Yeti will also square off against Orange County, Austin, Arizona, and San Jose. Although Colorado may have a shot at challenging Orange County, I have a hard time seeing them winning. They should handle San Jose and Arizona with relatively ease and should provide entertaining games against Yellowknife and Austin. Colorado received three votes as high as fourth and one as low as ninth. Ultimately, the spread was relatively wide but most voters pegged them between fourth and sixth.
The first team to squeeze into the top half this week is Yellowknife. Up from sixth place after week five, the Wraiths come in after an upset of Orange County in which their defense was dominant, limiting Orange County to only six points. The Wraiths are one of the three 4-4 teams through eight weeks and are one of the challengers for the second seed out of the NSFC. Their expected wins jumped from 5.3 to 5.8, which nudges them up into sixth and adds to the growing list of teams expected to come out of the regular season with six wins. The wraiths face off against Colorado next week and then move on to square off against New Orleans, Philadelphia, Austin, and Arizona. Philadelphia and Arizona certainly seem beatable, which would get Yellowknife up to six wins. Austin may prove to be more of a struggle, and New Orleans certainly seems to be the tallest hurdle for anyone this season. It seems entirely possible the Wraiths will win six and potentially could even snatch a seventh. Yellowknife received votes as high as second and had one salty voter limit them to tenth.
The first team off the podium this week is Austin. The Copperheads were the most recent team to be blown out by New Orleans. Austin has been an up and down team this season and appears balanced in most regards, with a 4-4 overall record and a 2-2 record both at home and on the road. Their expected win totals dropped to 5.4 after their week 8 loss, lowering them into seventh. The Copperheads will face off against Chicago, Arizona, Colorado, Yellowknife, and Philadelphia. Compared to some of the other schedules features, many of those games are winnable and it seems Austin may have simply suffered from some bad scheduling luck in the early parts of the season. One voter had Austin as high as second and none placed them lower than seventh. Seven of the ten respondents had them in the top half of the league.
Third place once again belongs to Baltimore. They picked up their fifth win by toppling the Butchers and move to 5-3 on the season. Baltimore has fallen off slightly through the middle portion of the season, but still retains their place atop the NSFC and in third in the power rankings and expected wins, which increased by .1 to a grand total of 7.5. Baltimore will close out the season by facing Philadelphia, San Jose, Arizona, New Orleans, and Orange County. They should win the first three with relative ease before ending the season with two consecutive games that are realistic Ultimus matchups. I think the Hawks will end the regular season as the NSFC champions with eight wins. The voters placed them no higher than third and no lower than fifth.
Second place belongs, again, to Orange County. The Otters suffered their second loss last week, a painful 17-6 defeat administered by the Wraiths. The Otters have been a strong contender all season and will surely be looking to rebound next week. Their expected wins fell from 10.4 top 9.8 following their loss, but they remain in second place in that ranking as well. They have not been lower than second at any point this season. The Otters look forward to facing San Jose, Colorado, a rematch on the road against New Orleans, Chicago, and end the season on the road against Baltimore. San Jose, Chicago, and probably Colorado will likely be relatively easy challenges for the dominant Otters. After losing at home to New Orleans, their second matchup becomes even more important and will likely be their toughest game of the home stretch. I expect them to beat Baltimore, although the homefield advantage is working in favor of the Hawks. In any case, I expect Orange County to finish the season with ten wins. The Otters received nine votes in second place and one from a disgruntled manic dropped them all the way into ninth. That person should probably be institutionalized.
New Orleans once again captures the first place spot, unanimously this time. The SecondLine bashed the Copperheads to pick up their eighth consecutive win and remain undefeated. I was intentionally slightly misleading during the section on Orange County to provide an even more surprising twist in this section. New Orleans and Orange county are, in fact, TIED, in expected wins at 9.8. Apparently the fact that New Orleans has scored 35 points more and allowed 12 fewer means nothing to the Excel sheet. This is the first time since week three that New Orleans has not been in sole possession of first place in the expected wins standings. The SecondLine close out their season by facing off against Arizona, Yellowknife, Orange County, Baltimore, and Chicago. According to their expected wins totals, they will only pick up two more wins out of those games. I think New Orleans will outperform their expected totals and win 11. For the sake of drama, I want them to lose to Orange County and Baltimore. I feel like that would make the end of the regular season and the playoffs a little more spicy. New Orleans certainly looks good to be the regular season ASFC champions, though it should be an interesting race to the finish.
Expected wins:
T1. New Orleans – 9.8
T1. Orange County – 9.8
3. Baltimore – 7.5
4. Chicago – 6.3
5. Colorado – 6.2
6. Yellowknife – 5.8
7. Austin – 5.4
8. San Jose – 4.4
9. Philadelphia – 4.2
10. Arizona – 3.8
Power Rankings:
1. New Orleans – 90
2. Orange County – 73
3. Baltimore – 61
4. Austin – 57
5. Yellowknife – 49
6. Colorado – 44
7. Chicago – 36
8. Philadelphia – 19
9. San Jose – 11
10. Arizona - 10
Last place in the eyes of the esteemed voters this week belongs to Arizona. The Outlaws are coming off a 12 point loss to last week’s bottom finisher. Losing to the previously last place team is usually a good way to find yourself at the bottom of the list, especially when your record now matches that team at an ugly 2-6. The bad news doesn’t stop there for the Outlaws, though, as they also find themselves down two places from eighth to tenth in the expected wins projections, where they are now predicted to win 3.8 games on the season. I’m not sure it’s totally realistic to expect a team that has won two games out of eight to win two more out of the remaining five, but it’s theoretically possible. Through the rest of the season, Arizona matches up against New Orleans, Austin, Baltimore, Colorado, and Yellowknife. I do not believe Arizona has much of a chance against New Orleans, who are my favorite at this point to win the Ultimus. The odds are slightly better against Baltimore, but still not very good. Arizona’s defense leads the league in points allowed and Baltimore’s offense has been difficult to stop this season. That means the Outlaws would have to win two games against Austin, Colorado, or Yellowknife. I don’t believe they win more than one of these games. One half of the voters placed Arizona in dead last and their highest vote was seventh.
San Jose fans who let out a sigh of relief when realizing they weren’t last can take it back now. The SaberCats were only one point ahead of Arizona in this week’s power rankings. Following week five, which is the last time I published the power rankings, San Jose was put in last. This week, they escape to ninth, edging out the Outlaws by the slimmest of margins (it was one point). The SaberCats defeated the Outlaws, raising their record to 2-6 on the season. They fared slightly better in expected wins, where they move from tenth to eighth, improving their expected win total from 3.6 to 4.4. San Jose is another team I have a hard time seeing winning four games on the season. In the remainder of the season, they square off with Orange County, Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Colorado. The game against Orange County will almost certainly be a loss, and I don’t expect them to beat Baltimore either. Philadelphia has looked beatable this season, so it is entirely possible they could pull a win out of that game. To achieve four wins, though, they would have to win another game against either Chicago or Colorado. I expect them to manage one win, but two may be a bit of a stretch for the remainder of the season. San Jose received two last place votes and half of the total voters slotted them into ninth.
Eighth place this week belongs to Philadelphia, who were in a tie with Chicago for 7th/8th in the last installment of this series. The Liberty ended their lengthy losing streak with a win at home against the Yeti, bringing their record up to 2-6. Although the win was enough to elevate their expected win total from 3.7 to 4.2, the increase was not enough to bring them up out of ninth place. The Liberty have Baltimore, Chicago, Yellowknife, San Jose, and Austin on the plate for the remainder of their season. Baltimore is likely the least winnable of those games, but with so many division games remaining and being only one game behind Chicago, it is entirely possible Philadelphia could still claim a slot in the playoffs. Whether this is likely is another question altogether. The Liberty were blown out 45-13 in their last matchup against Chicago. Whether this is indicative of a future loss or just ammunition to put some fire in their bellies for the second matchup remains to be seen. The Liberty received two last place votes, though the majority of voters slotted them in eighth or higher. One voter has them all the way up into sixth place.
Seventh place was bestowed upon Chicago, who was tied for 7th/8th with the Liberty following week five. The Butchers spent week eight losing to Baltimore in a game that had the unusual score of 10-5 at the half. They now sit at 3-5, one game ahead of last place Philadelphia and only two games behind division leading Baltimore. Despite the loss and a decrease of .1 in expected wins that dropped them to 6.3, Chicago sits fourth in the expected wins projections. Still on their plate this season is Austin, Philadelphia, San Jose, Orange County, and New Orleans. The back to back challenge of Orange County and New Orleans is rough, but it seems entirely possible San Jose will win at least two of those games, and possibly three. Philadelphia and San Jose are games I expect Chicago to at least be competitive in and Austin has not exactly been impressive to date this season. Chicago received votes as high as fourth, but half the voters saw them in seventh and another all the way in ninth.
The first team out of the top half in this week’s standings goes to Colorado, who missed out on belonging to the top half by just five points. In the previous edition, Colorado was tied with Austin for 4th/5th. There were two ties last time. Fortunately we avoided such travesty this time around. The Yeti fell on the road to Philadelphia in week eight, costing them a spot in the top five. In terms of expected wins, Colorado fares slightly better and just squeezes into the top half at 6.2 expected wins, behind Chicago by just .1. At an even 4-4, Colorado seems as good a team as any to hit their six win projection. Next week, the Yeti face off against the Wraiths, who also own a 4-4 record and would like to elevate their seeding in the playoffs. The Yeti will also square off against Orange County, Austin, Arizona, and San Jose. Although Colorado may have a shot at challenging Orange County, I have a hard time seeing them winning. They should handle San Jose and Arizona with relatively ease and should provide entertaining games against Yellowknife and Austin. Colorado received three votes as high as fourth and one as low as ninth. Ultimately, the spread was relatively wide but most voters pegged them between fourth and sixth.
The first team to squeeze into the top half this week is Yellowknife. Up from sixth place after week five, the Wraiths come in after an upset of Orange County in which their defense was dominant, limiting Orange County to only six points. The Wraiths are one of the three 4-4 teams through eight weeks and are one of the challengers for the second seed out of the NSFC. Their expected wins jumped from 5.3 to 5.8, which nudges them up into sixth and adds to the growing list of teams expected to come out of the regular season with six wins. The wraiths face off against Colorado next week and then move on to square off against New Orleans, Philadelphia, Austin, and Arizona. Philadelphia and Arizona certainly seem beatable, which would get Yellowknife up to six wins. Austin may prove to be more of a struggle, and New Orleans certainly seems to be the tallest hurdle for anyone this season. It seems entirely possible the Wraiths will win six and potentially could even snatch a seventh. Yellowknife received votes as high as second and had one salty voter limit them to tenth.
The first team off the podium this week is Austin. The Copperheads were the most recent team to be blown out by New Orleans. Austin has been an up and down team this season and appears balanced in most regards, with a 4-4 overall record and a 2-2 record both at home and on the road. Their expected win totals dropped to 5.4 after their week 8 loss, lowering them into seventh. The Copperheads will face off against Chicago, Arizona, Colorado, Yellowknife, and Philadelphia. Compared to some of the other schedules features, many of those games are winnable and it seems Austin may have simply suffered from some bad scheduling luck in the early parts of the season. One voter had Austin as high as second and none placed them lower than seventh. Seven of the ten respondents had them in the top half of the league.
Third place once again belongs to Baltimore. They picked up their fifth win by toppling the Butchers and move to 5-3 on the season. Baltimore has fallen off slightly through the middle portion of the season, but still retains their place atop the NSFC and in third in the power rankings and expected wins, which increased by .1 to a grand total of 7.5. Baltimore will close out the season by facing Philadelphia, San Jose, Arizona, New Orleans, and Orange County. They should win the first three with relative ease before ending the season with two consecutive games that are realistic Ultimus matchups. I think the Hawks will end the regular season as the NSFC champions with eight wins. The voters placed them no higher than third and no lower than fifth.
Second place belongs, again, to Orange County. The Otters suffered their second loss last week, a painful 17-6 defeat administered by the Wraiths. The Otters have been a strong contender all season and will surely be looking to rebound next week. Their expected wins fell from 10.4 top 9.8 following their loss, but they remain in second place in that ranking as well. They have not been lower than second at any point this season. The Otters look forward to facing San Jose, Colorado, a rematch on the road against New Orleans, Chicago, and end the season on the road against Baltimore. San Jose, Chicago, and probably Colorado will likely be relatively easy challenges for the dominant Otters. After losing at home to New Orleans, their second matchup becomes even more important and will likely be their toughest game of the home stretch. I expect them to beat Baltimore, although the homefield advantage is working in favor of the Hawks. In any case, I expect Orange County to finish the season with ten wins. The Otters received nine votes in second place and one from a disgruntled manic dropped them all the way into ninth. That person should probably be institutionalized.
New Orleans once again captures the first place spot, unanimously this time. The SecondLine bashed the Copperheads to pick up their eighth consecutive win and remain undefeated. I was intentionally slightly misleading during the section on Orange County to provide an even more surprising twist in this section. New Orleans and Orange county are, in fact, TIED, in expected wins at 9.8. Apparently the fact that New Orleans has scored 35 points more and allowed 12 fewer means nothing to the Excel sheet. This is the first time since week three that New Orleans has not been in sole possession of first place in the expected wins standings. The SecondLine close out their season by facing off against Arizona, Yellowknife, Orange County, Baltimore, and Chicago. According to their expected wins totals, they will only pick up two more wins out of those games. I think New Orleans will outperform their expected totals and win 11. For the sake of drama, I want them to lose to Orange County and Baltimore. I feel like that would make the end of the regular season and the playoffs a little more spicy. New Orleans certainly looks good to be the regular season ASFC champions, though it should be an interesting race to the finish.
Expected wins:
T1. New Orleans – 9.8
T1. Orange County – 9.8
3. Baltimore – 7.5
4. Chicago – 6.3
5. Colorado – 6.2
6. Yellowknife – 5.8
7. Austin – 5.4
8. San Jose – 4.4
9. Philadelphia – 4.2
10. Arizona – 3.8
Power Rankings:
1. New Orleans – 90
2. Orange County – 73
3. Baltimore – 61
4. Austin – 57
5. Yellowknife – 49
6. Colorado – 44
7. Chicago – 36
8. Philadelphia – 19
9. San Jose – 11
10. Arizona - 10