[div align=\\\"center\\\"]A look at stat priorities for Defensive Linemen
What it means for DT archetypes.
[/div]
Hello again,
I'm writing this article due to the changes to the Defensive tackle archetypes.
We are going to expand upon a few things from the previous article here: http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showtopic=1833
First, I'm going to state the assumptions we are making.
1.) I'm only going to be weighing stats that have a positive correlation. For example, some stats like endurance and intelligence probably positively impact players, however the stat to performance was so variant, that it's completely inconclusive. (Or the opportunity cost recognizes a negative correlation)
2.) I'm going to be using stats from a maxed out archetype (for relevant stats). Based on my findings, strength, speed and tackling make up the majority of correlated performance, therefore I feel like the better DTs will probably be maxing those stats ASAP. I might also do the same calculations based on each archetype with a set amount of TPE to spend, but I think this is largely unnecessary.
Alright for this, we are going to be using the coefficients I calculated earlier and then applying them to the max attributes of the archetypes for Defensive Tackles.
Alright, so what do we do with this information. For each of the correlated stats, I'm going to multiply the max attribute and then add those together to get an aggregate score for each thing.
First lets look at tackling
So now we've combined the max attribute multiplied by the correlation coefficients, lets look at aggregate scores which will allow us to rank and see the effectiveness of each archetype.
As you can see, Nose Tackles and Run stuffer are almost identical for making tackles. Interior rusher is 3% worse and balanced is 4% worse.
Now lets move on to Tackles for loss:
and now here are the aggregate scores and tackle for loss rank
So here Interior rusher is the best followed barely by run stuffer and then balanced and Nose tackle. The big reason for this is because Agility matters much more for Tackle for Loss than it does at most other defensive stats.
Moving on to forced fumbles:
and the aggregate scores
Run stuffer wins again.
Finally lets move on to sacks. I only factor in speed and strength because they have the only strong correlations (surprisingly agility does not, I did touch on why I think this happens in my last article).
and the aggregate scores
Alright, so what does this all mean? well lets just continue with the current ranking system I have set up.
After combining all of the Tackling, Tackle For Loss, Forced Fumble and Sacks, we get the final ranking. I'd like to note that I didn't weight any 1 category more than others. It's possible this swings around a bit but overall my findings won't change due to one archetype being so low across the board.
Run stuffer is the highest ranking even though it isn't perfect at TFL or Sacks. It is still very good and overall better than the other archetypes.
Next up is the Interior rusher which is about 2% worse than the run stuffer. I feel like the interior rusher is balanced because it is good at different things. If you look at timeconsumers article , Interior rusher is a bit lower with being able to spend max tpe than Nose Tackle and Run stuffer. However since it has higher useful stats (according to my findings), this comes in at number 2. Also I'm sure that most DTs who were stacking speed and grabbing sacks before will probably either stay with this archetype or switch to it.
Finally we have the Nose Tackle which is slightly worse than interior rusher. Surprisingly this archetype is ranked first in sacks(and that's probably due to having max strength). Again, I'm ok with this archetype because it is really good at tackling and sacking and not very good at getting tackles for loss. Archetypes should be kind of niche and I think that Interior rusher and Nose Tackle both feel like they accomplish their goals.
Finally we have the balanced archetype, which ranks last at tackling, sacks and forced fumbles. It is ok at tackle for loss but why wouldn't you just be an interior rusher which is better at this and other categories.
With my current model and predictions. The balanced archetype really just doesn't have anything that it's great at. In fact it's generally just bad. I would strongly advise against this archetype and I myself will probably be switching before season 2.
What I imagine the balanced archetype to be is in the middle of the pack at most things without a huge strength or weakness. Instead it's just the worst at most things.
My current proposed solution is possibly raising the max tackling from 75 to 80. However even with this change, the balanced archetype is still last in tackling, 3rd in TFL, second in Forced fumbles and last in sacks.
I think that on top of this change, speed would also need to be raised to 67.
With all of these changes, this brings the final ranking with the Run stuffer at 100%, with the interior rusher behind at 98%, the nose tackle at 97.46% and balanced at 97.37%.
Instead of the above change and a quick and easy change to keep the max stats in line with being divisible by 5, speed could be raised from 65 to 70. The interior rusher still has a niche of having more agility.
This brings the balanced archetype stuck around 3rd on tackles, sacks, TFL and forced fumbles. This brings the rankings much closer with Balanced and Nose Tackle being about even (at about 2.5% worse than the run stuffer).
What it means for DT archetypes.
[/div]
Hello again,
I'm writing this article due to the changes to the Defensive tackle archetypes.
We are going to expand upon a few things from the previous article here: http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showtopic=1833
First, I'm going to state the assumptions we are making.
1.) I'm only going to be weighing stats that have a positive correlation. For example, some stats like endurance and intelligence probably positively impact players, however the stat to performance was so variant, that it's completely inconclusive. (Or the opportunity cost recognizes a negative correlation)
2.) I'm going to be using stats from a maxed out archetype (for relevant stats). Based on my findings, strength, speed and tackling make up the majority of correlated performance, therefore I feel like the better DTs will probably be maxing those stats ASAP. I might also do the same calculations based on each archetype with a set amount of TPE to spend, but I think this is largely unnecessary.
Alright for this, we are going to be using the coefficients I calculated earlier and then applying them to the max attributes of the archetypes for Defensive Tackles.
Alright, so what do we do with this information. For each of the correlated stats, I'm going to multiply the max attribute and then add those together to get an aggregate score for each thing.
First lets look at tackling
So now we've combined the max attribute multiplied by the correlation coefficients, lets look at aggregate scores which will allow us to rank and see the effectiveness of each archetype.
As you can see, Nose Tackles and Run stuffer are almost identical for making tackles. Interior rusher is 3% worse and balanced is 4% worse.
Now lets move on to Tackles for loss:
and now here are the aggregate scores and tackle for loss rank
So here Interior rusher is the best followed barely by run stuffer and then balanced and Nose tackle. The big reason for this is because Agility matters much more for Tackle for Loss than it does at most other defensive stats.
Moving on to forced fumbles:
and the aggregate scores
Run stuffer wins again.
Finally lets move on to sacks. I only factor in speed and strength because they have the only strong correlations (surprisingly agility does not, I did touch on why I think this happens in my last article).
and the aggregate scores
Alright, so what does this all mean? well lets just continue with the current ranking system I have set up.
After combining all of the Tackling, Tackle For Loss, Forced Fumble and Sacks, we get the final ranking. I'd like to note that I didn't weight any 1 category more than others. It's possible this swings around a bit but overall my findings won't change due to one archetype being so low across the board.
Run stuffer is the highest ranking even though it isn't perfect at TFL or Sacks. It is still very good and overall better than the other archetypes.
Next up is the Interior rusher which is about 2% worse than the run stuffer. I feel like the interior rusher is balanced because it is good at different things. If you look at timeconsumers article , Interior rusher is a bit lower with being able to spend max tpe than Nose Tackle and Run stuffer. However since it has higher useful stats (according to my findings), this comes in at number 2. Also I'm sure that most DTs who were stacking speed and grabbing sacks before will probably either stay with this archetype or switch to it.
Finally we have the Nose Tackle which is slightly worse than interior rusher. Surprisingly this archetype is ranked first in sacks(and that's probably due to having max strength). Again, I'm ok with this archetype because it is really good at tackling and sacking and not very good at getting tackles for loss. Archetypes should be kind of niche and I think that Interior rusher and Nose Tackle both feel like they accomplish their goals.
Finally we have the balanced archetype, which ranks last at tackling, sacks and forced fumbles. It is ok at tackle for loss but why wouldn't you just be an interior rusher which is better at this and other categories.
With my current model and predictions. The balanced archetype really just doesn't have anything that it's great at. In fact it's generally just bad. I would strongly advise against this archetype and I myself will probably be switching before season 2.
What I imagine the balanced archetype to be is in the middle of the pack at most things without a huge strength or weakness. Instead it's just the worst at most things.
My current proposed solution is possibly raising the max tackling from 75 to 80. However even with this change, the balanced archetype is still last in tackling, 3rd in TFL, second in Forced fumbles and last in sacks.
I think that on top of this change, speed would also need to be raised to 67.
With all of these changes, this brings the final ranking with the Run stuffer at 100%, with the interior rusher behind at 98%, the nose tackle at 97.46% and balanced at 97.37%.
Instead of the above change and a quick and easy change to keep the max stats in line with being divisible by 5, speed could be raised from 65 to 70. The interior rusher still has a niche of having more agility.
This brings the balanced archetype stuck around 3rd on tackles, sacks, TFL and forced fumbles. This brings the rankings much closer with Balanced and Nose Tackle being about even (at about 2.5% worse than the run stuffer).