*S22 Expansion Draft Protections Review

[RussDrivesTheBus]

Teams have now officially announced their protection lists, which means it’s time to dive in and see how far off I was with my predictions. When I made the initial lists, I thought I could be around 65-70% correct. That didn’t seem like too big a stretch, and had a large enough accounting for error that was realistic. So, how did I do?

NSFC


– 6 of 7 (5 of 6 without GM)
Actual List
1. Walt Green
2. Darrel Williams
3. Apollo Reed
4. Asher Quin
5. Juan Marston
6. Logan Uchiha
7. FA Pass
8. ForThe Brand

My List
1. Walt Green
2. Darrel Williams
3. Apollo Reed
4. Asher Quinn
5. Juan Marston
6. Logan Uchiha
7. Sandip Bakshi
8. FA Pass

Kickers were a position I wasn’t sure about. I toyed with protecting some on teams where things were a little more certain, but it seemed that other positional needs would be more important to future success. I understand the decision here, and overall, I got everything else spot on. Not a bad start!


– 6 of 7 (4 of 5 without GMs)
Actual List
1. Mo Berry
2. Bubba Thumper
3. Ashley Owens
4. Wolfie McDummy
5. Louisiana Purchase
6. Pete Parker
7. Earl Sauce

My List
1. Mo Berry
2. Bubba Thumper
3. Ashley Owens
4. Wolfie McDummy
5. Louisiana Purchase
6. Pete Parker
7. Laszlo Forty-Two

This post is not about questioning the GMs. They know infinitely more about their teams than a guy who basically looked at the TPE Tracker and Retirement thread to make his decision. Earl is a big part of their offense, and he’s younger than Laszlo. Tight End is a pretty shallow position as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Earl isn’t the only one that shows up in here. But again, only missing one feels pretty good.


– 6 of 7 (5 of 6 without GM)
Actual List
1. FA Pass
2. FA Pass
3. Mathias Hanyadi
4. Bender B Rod
5. Maurice Virtanen
6. Nero Alexander
7. Giannis Kroustis
8. Johnny Snuggles
9. Mervin Leonard

My List:
1. Nero Alexander
2. Maurice Virtanen
3. Bender B. Rodriguez
4. Giannis Kroustis
5. Mathias Hanyadi
6. Mervin Leonard
7. Cooter Bigsby
8. FA Pass
9. FA Pass

I think this one boiled down to not having all the information. Sources are telling me the Cooter is unprotected most likely due to how his contract is structured. Either way, another successful set of picks for me, only missing the one. I’m on a roll!


– 4 of 7 (3 of 6 without GM)
Actual List
1. Brock Phoenix
2. Sam Torenson
3. Nacho Varga
4. Randy Vuxta
5. Warren Stephens
6. Wayne Howyanow
7. ILove Gimmy

My List
1. Ilove Gimmy
2. Sam Torenson
3. Nacho Varga
4. Brock Phoenix
5. Edmondov Emoji
6. Richard D’Attoria
7. Lamont McKinnie

Philly was definitely the team I was least confident on. They have a lot of inactive players with high TPE, some of which had more than 1000 TPE (McKinnie, Emoji and D’Attoria). Protecting instead, some active layers, which I 100% understand. Howyaknow has been IA for a little over a month now, and isn’t necessarily a high TPE earner, but keeping two younger LBs will allow them to target the secondary more heavily in this deep draft class.

– 0 of 0 (Did not pick, as their list was posted prior to my article)


ASFC


– 5 of 7 (3 of 5 without GM)
Actual List
1. Korrin Abernathy
2. Tyrone Biggums
3. Franklin Armstrong
4. Hugh Mongo
5. A.J. Lattimer
6. Kacey Dream
7. Bobby Boucher

My List
1. Korrin Abernathy
2. Tyrone Biggums
3. Franklin Armstrong
4. Hugh Mongo
5. Kacey Dream
6. Ludicolo Bigsby
7. Lanzer Grievous

Ludicolo us a bit of a shock to me, but I understand wanting to protect active players instead. This will leave them without a starting Running Back, so that will need to be addressed this off-season. I think the most interesting part of this list is that we both agreed to leave Dexter unprotected. This is the type of decision that makes this draft so difficult and influential. No doubt, one of the expansion teams will be picking up a great player.


– 5 of 7 (3 of 5 without GMs)
Actual List:
1. Forrest Gump
2. Quenton Bode
3. Stan Francisco
4. Marcella Toriki
5. David Rector
6. Mason Blaylock
7. Austin McCormick

My List
1. Forrest Gump
2. Stan Francisco
3. Quenton Bode
4. Marcella Tōriki
5. David Rector
6. Xavien Adams
7. Mark Arianlacher

Interestingly, Blaylock was on my first draft list, but I removed him for Arianlacher. Blaylock will keep the secondary young, and is the only S currently on the roster, so it makes sense to stash him. McCormick, as I said earlier, joins the list of Tight End Protections. He’s an integral part of what this offense does, so I can’t be too mad at wanting to keep the young pass catcher around.


– 6 of 7 (4 of 5 without GMs)
Actual List
1. Mako Mendonca
2. Easton Cole
3. Awkward Sexjoke
4. Kyle Idlewylde
5. Net Gaines
6. Honda Edmonds
7. Dermot Lavelle Jr

My List
1. Mako Mendonca
2. Easton Cole
3. Honda Edmonds
4. Kyle Idlewyld
5. Awkward Sexjoke
6. Dermot Lavelle Jr.
7. Rod Tidwell

There were some Copperheads I had locked in, I definitely did a lot of waffling with some of these picks. Ultimately, it looks like I came out pretty well. The only miss I had was between Tidwell and Gains. As I mentioned in my writeup, I considered Gains here and I understand the decision. His youth will help him to produce solid numbers for at least another 4 seasons. He did reach the 1000 yard mark this year, but I believe that had a lot to do with teams having to use the CB1 to cover Tidwell. Will Gains be able to produce on the same level without his presence next season? Will Tidwell even be picked up in the expansion draft? Both questions will be answered soon enough, but for now, I get the justification.


– 6 of 7 (6 of 7 without GM?)
Actual List

1. Tyron Brackenridge
2. Brayden Ennis
3. Inspectah Deck
4. Deondre Thomas-fox
5. Action Jackson
6. Dan Wright
7. Quindarius Tyerucker

My List

1. Trey Staley
2. Tyron Brackenridge
3. Inspectah Deck
4. Deondre Thomas-Fox
5. Action Jackson
6. Dan Wright
7. Brayden Ennis

I’m not sure what happened here. I had Tyerucker protected originally, even though he’s been inactive for 4 months and has less than 300 TPE. SJS has a big issue with inactive players, so picking who the final protection would go to is difficult. The sim absolutely loved him this year, but it was still hard to justify keeping him around. But, if I had the extra spot from not protecting Staley, I would have given it to Tyerucker. I’m unsure as to why Staley wasn’t an auto-protection because he’s listed as the GM. Unfortunately, I thought I’d be able to count this as a 7 of 7, but, even if they were supposed to protect Staley, there’s no guarantee they would’ve dropped Tyerucker to do so. It’s possible Staley could be announcing his retirement, therefore freeing up the protection, but at this point, that’s purely speculative.


– 5 of 7 (3 of 5 without GMs)
Actual List

1. Desmond Scarlett
2. Jamie Nkiah
3. Galf Wilf
4. Jah Bur'Berry
5. Jay Cue
6. Shane Masters
7. Saba Donut

My List

1. Desmond Scarlett
2. Jamie Nkiah
3. Galf Wilf
4. Jay Cue
5. Saba Donut
6. Ruff Ruff
7. Lucas Knight

Not protecting Ruff Ruff tells me that I didn’t have all the information here. While he has been inactive since the beginning of February, he’s the only RB on the roster. I think letting him go could be a huge misstep in Arizona’s journey toward contention. I also disagree with keeping Masters over Knight. If the Outlaw’s didn’t have two young and promising Defensive Tackles, I would be fine with this. But they do, so I’m not sure I see the merit. With Montgomery already deep into regression, if Knight is picked off in the Expansion, this secondary will take a huge hit. Perhaps they’re banking on reloading in the draft, as they have a ton of capital and the DB class is massively talented. It should also be noted that there are a handful of Running Backs in this rookie class that could be on the Outlaws' radar to fill Ruff Ruff's shoes.

Overview

So, how did I do? Honestly, a lot better than I thought! This draft is putting a ton of pressure on the front offices of every team. I felt the heat briefly, and I’m just an outsider looking in. For the most part, I feel like I was on the same page as a lot of GMs, but there were some teams where that clearly wasn’t the case. Granted, I’m not privy to what they have planned for the offseason regarding trades and free agency, I still think I can happily say I did better than decent. Hopefully, this was an enjoyable read for y’all, and it served as a decent distraction between us and the time between games. Let me know if you think I missed some obvious cases here. Thanks for reading!

Total correct: 54 out of 63 or 85.7%
Total correct without GMs: 36 out of 53 or 67.9%


Word Count: 1626

[SabaDonutMan]

Jah over Donut is a choice I can get behind

I was actually protected

[RussDrivesTheBus]

I was actually protected

Oh wow you sure were. And I had it right there. What a dingus. I'll edit.

[ItsJustBarry]

You heard it here first. Ryan LeafJr is headed to OCO to fill the RB vacancy.

[ckroyal92]

I’m not sure what happened here. I had Tyerucker protected originally, even though he’s been inactive for 4 months and has less than 300 TPE. SJS has a big issue with inactive players, so picking who the final protection would go to is difficult. The sim absolutely loved him this year, but it was still hard to justify keeping him around. But, if I had the extra spot from not protecting Staley, I would have given it to Tyerucker. I’m unsure as to why Staley wasn’t an auto-protection because he’s listed as the GM. Unfortunately, I thought I’d be able to count this as a 7 of 7, but, even if they were supposed to protect Staley, there’s no guarantee they would’ve dropped Tyerucker to do so. It’s possible Staley could be announcing his retirement, therefore freeing up the protection, but at this point, that’s purely speculative.

Good call!