So, some of you may have seen yesterday I posted a google form asking where you would draft me if I was each position. I also asked GMs privately, in a separate form for their opinions. As I expected, the public surveys included some troll results, which is why I had the GM survey as my primary data collection tool.
I received 9 responses from GMs. Overwhelmingly, my findings showed that GMs value defense way above offense right now.
This is what each question looked like, and there were 11 questions, 1 for each position. Once I collected the results and started to process the data, I assigned a simple point scale for each answer. Top 3 was worth 8 points, 6th+ round was worth 1 point. This gave me a good estimate for how the answers combined into an overall value for each position.
CB was the most valuable. Even in a deep class at CB, GMs still would have taken me highest if I was a CB. Interestingly, it only had a couple at the top end, 1 top 3, 1 top 5, 1 1st round. But the rest were all 2nd round and 1 3rd round. The 2 defensive line positions tied in overall value, just behind CB, but DE had 2 people put me top 3, and 1 top 5, alongside another 1st round. 2 top 3s and 2 1st rounds if I was DT. But at DL some GMs valued me as late as the 5th round, which ultimately brought the overall value down to below that of CBs. Safety and LB were the next 2. As I mentioned - the GMs overwhelmingly valued defense.
The most valuable offensive position was Offensive Line. Nah, I wish. It was WR, followed by RB. It was a drop after that to TE, then it was actually OL, ahead of QB. Kicker dragged up the rear, significantly.
"That's good and all, but Symm, you're just blabbing about stuff, show me numbers I can understand, what does this mean?"
The combined values for each position were as such:
CB - 50
DE - 47
DT - 47
S - 43
LB - 41
WR - 31
RB - 28
TE - 22
OL - 20
QB - 17
K/P - 11
So, how did I relate these to each other?
Well, since the CB is the most valuable, I gave it a modifier of 1.00, so 212 TPE at CB = 212 TPE independent of position (I am 212 TPE on roster page at the time of this). Based on the percentage of CB's overall score, I gave each other position that modifier. So the D Line positions have 47/50, or a modifier of 0.94 - meaning a 212 TPE DL is equivalent in value to a 199 TPE CB. The other defensive positions fall in at a modifier of 0.86 and 0.82. Offense though. Wide Receiver was the most valuable offensive position. It was still low compared to defense. It's modifier was just 0.62, which means a 212 TPE WR is equivalent to a 131 TPE CB. Poor kickers, at the bottom with just a 0.22 modifier, means a kicker is equal to just a 47 TPE CB.
I also turned it the other way. How much TPE would the other positions need to have to consider themselves equal to a 212 TPE CB? For defense, it's not so bad. DL at 226 TPE is equivalent to a 212 CB. For WRs, you'd need 342 TPE. For kickers? Just pick up a paltry 964 TPE pre-draft and you'd be at the same level as a 212 CB.
The public responses held a similar breakdown between offense and defense. The positions fell in a different order, but there was the same gap between the 5th defensive position and the top offensive position, WR. Thanks to some who submitted some joke surveys, the gap between the top and bottom overall isn't quite as large. According to the public, DE is the top value. DT and LB follow it up, ending up with just 1 fewer points, for a modifier of 0.98. CB ended up 4th according to the public, in an interesting reverse of the GM data, where CB ended up with the 0.94 modifier relative to DE. WRs were a 0.76 modifier, and Kickers once again brought up the rear, this time though with a 0.53 modifier - means the public considers a 400 TPE kicker equivalent to a 212 TPE DE in draft value.
Now, this doesn't translate perfectly between users. There are plenty of other factors that go into the draft, where similar players get valued differently. However, this gives a good comparison as to how much someone might want to take a riskier player at the more valuable position rather than take a safer bet at a low value position.
If you're curious, I adjusted the TPE of each player in S22 by their positional modifier, primarily sorted by their TPE after adjustment by the GM's view of positional value: Spreadsheet
That was the thing I was collecting the data for. It is interesting though, even if I don't know which response is from which GM, but to know how much different teams could value me.
As a QB, 55.6% (5/9 responses) of GMs said they would draft me in the 6th+ round. 2 more said 5th round. 1 GM though said they would draft me as a QB as early as the 2nd round. It a similar story for other offensive positions. RB 44.4% said 5th round, with the top end being 2 GMs picking me in the 2nd. WR it was largely 4th round, again with 1 saying they would go up to the 2nd round to pick me. TE it was split between the top and bottom end evenly. 33.3% said they'd take me 6th+ round, while another 33.3% said 3rd round. The other 3 GMs were split between 4th and 5th. Kicker was almost unanimously 6th+ round, with 2 GMs saying 5th. There was never more than 4 different answers for offense.
On defense, 55.6% of GMs said they would take me in the 2nd round as a CB, 1 reaching as high as top 3, another as low as the 3rd round. There were 5 different answers chosen for CB. For LB, there was also 5 different answers, again with 2nd round being the most common choice, at 44.4%. At LB though, 1 GM ranked me as low as the 5th round, while 2 ranked me in the 1st round. At defensive end, I got 7 different answers from GMs. There were only 8 possible choices, the only one that didn't show up was 6th+ round. 2 said top 3 and 2 said 3rd round. Everyone was all over the place on where they would take me as a DE. DT was very similar, but 6 different answers, as this time no one said they would pick me in the top 5. Again though 2 answers for top 3, and 2 more for 1st round, as well as 2nd round. Me as a safety saw GMs give 6 different answers. Most common was 2nd round. Same as DT though, it was as high as top 3, low as 5th round, no one would take me top 5 or 6th+ round though.
The last position I asked about was OL. The position I actually play. This one is the most interesting to me in terms of that information, because that's the one that matters the most for the draft. The highest a GM would take me is -
Come on, I can't be spilling those secrets now?
What I learned from the GMs is that if you play defense, you better do stuff to stand out if you want to get picked high. Teams need defense and the GMs want it, but in such a deep class, you gotta stand out.
The public responses were even more chaotic, even on offense (as was to be expected, the public doesn't really have the same kind of positional value and they treat it more like IRL values of players, especially as it relates to offense). Interestingly, the public was very united on my value as a linebacker. 8/13 picked 1st round value for me, and another 3 went 2nd round. The other 2 responses both said 6th+, which are 2 responses who said 6th+ for everything except kicker, where they said top 3. What I did find very interesting about the public responses is that the people hated the 5th round. Across 9 questions & 13 responses, 5th round was picked just 5 times. Twice for QB, twice for OL, and once for K/P. I think some of that came from the troll responses, as they only picked 6th+ except for kicker - those were the only answers of 6th+ for most positions with the exception of QB/RB/K.
So anyway, that's my analysis on the positional value of the positions. I explains why pretty much the entire 1st round of mock drafts is defense. In my own, the first 9 picks are all defense, and there's just 2 offensive players in the 12 picks. I expect we'll see similar trends in the 2nd round, only broken up by GM picks and a few exceptional offensive players like White Goodman and receivers Lim & Jeeta.
I received 9 responses from GMs. Overwhelmingly, my findings showed that GMs value defense way above offense right now.
This is what each question looked like, and there were 11 questions, 1 for each position. Once I collected the results and started to process the data, I assigned a simple point scale for each answer. Top 3 was worth 8 points, 6th+ round was worth 1 point. This gave me a good estimate for how the answers combined into an overall value for each position.
CB was the most valuable. Even in a deep class at CB, GMs still would have taken me highest if I was a CB. Interestingly, it only had a couple at the top end, 1 top 3, 1 top 5, 1 1st round. But the rest were all 2nd round and 1 3rd round. The 2 defensive line positions tied in overall value, just behind CB, but DE had 2 people put me top 3, and 1 top 5, alongside another 1st round. 2 top 3s and 2 1st rounds if I was DT. But at DL some GMs valued me as late as the 5th round, which ultimately brought the overall value down to below that of CBs. Safety and LB were the next 2. As I mentioned - the GMs overwhelmingly valued defense.
The most valuable offensive position was Offensive Line. Nah, I wish. It was WR, followed by RB. It was a drop after that to TE, then it was actually OL, ahead of QB. Kicker dragged up the rear, significantly.
"That's good and all, but Symm, you're just blabbing about stuff, show me numbers I can understand, what does this mean?"
The combined values for each position were as such:
CB - 50
DE - 47
DT - 47
S - 43
LB - 41
WR - 31
RB - 28
TE - 22
OL - 20
QB - 17
K/P - 11
So, how did I relate these to each other?
Well, since the CB is the most valuable, I gave it a modifier of 1.00, so 212 TPE at CB = 212 TPE independent of position (I am 212 TPE on roster page at the time of this). Based on the percentage of CB's overall score, I gave each other position that modifier. So the D Line positions have 47/50, or a modifier of 0.94 - meaning a 212 TPE DL is equivalent in value to a 199 TPE CB. The other defensive positions fall in at a modifier of 0.86 and 0.82. Offense though. Wide Receiver was the most valuable offensive position. It was still low compared to defense. It's modifier was just 0.62, which means a 212 TPE WR is equivalent to a 131 TPE CB. Poor kickers, at the bottom with just a 0.22 modifier, means a kicker is equal to just a 47 TPE CB.
I also turned it the other way. How much TPE would the other positions need to have to consider themselves equal to a 212 TPE CB? For defense, it's not so bad. DL at 226 TPE is equivalent to a 212 CB. For WRs, you'd need 342 TPE. For kickers? Just pick up a paltry 964 TPE pre-draft and you'd be at the same level as a 212 CB.
The public responses held a similar breakdown between offense and defense. The positions fell in a different order, but there was the same gap between the 5th defensive position and the top offensive position, WR. Thanks to some who submitted some joke surveys, the gap between the top and bottom overall isn't quite as large. According to the public, DE is the top value. DT and LB follow it up, ending up with just 1 fewer points, for a modifier of 0.98. CB ended up 4th according to the public, in an interesting reverse of the GM data, where CB ended up with the 0.94 modifier relative to DE. WRs were a 0.76 modifier, and Kickers once again brought up the rear, this time though with a 0.53 modifier - means the public considers a 400 TPE kicker equivalent to a 212 TPE DE in draft value.
Now, this doesn't translate perfectly between users. There are plenty of other factors that go into the draft, where similar players get valued differently. However, this gives a good comparison as to how much someone might want to take a riskier player at the more valuable position rather than take a safer bet at a low value position.
If you're curious, I adjusted the TPE of each player in S22 by their positional modifier, primarily sorted by their TPE after adjustment by the GM's view of positional value: Spreadsheet
That was the thing I was collecting the data for. It is interesting though, even if I don't know which response is from which GM, but to know how much different teams could value me.
As a QB, 55.6% (5/9 responses) of GMs said they would draft me in the 6th+ round. 2 more said 5th round. 1 GM though said they would draft me as a QB as early as the 2nd round. It a similar story for other offensive positions. RB 44.4% said 5th round, with the top end being 2 GMs picking me in the 2nd. WR it was largely 4th round, again with 1 saying they would go up to the 2nd round to pick me. TE it was split between the top and bottom end evenly. 33.3% said they'd take me 6th+ round, while another 33.3% said 3rd round. The other 3 GMs were split between 4th and 5th. Kicker was almost unanimously 6th+ round, with 2 GMs saying 5th. There was never more than 4 different answers for offense.
On defense, 55.6% of GMs said they would take me in the 2nd round as a CB, 1 reaching as high as top 3, another as low as the 3rd round. There were 5 different answers chosen for CB. For LB, there was also 5 different answers, again with 2nd round being the most common choice, at 44.4%. At LB though, 1 GM ranked me as low as the 5th round, while 2 ranked me in the 1st round. At defensive end, I got 7 different answers from GMs. There were only 8 possible choices, the only one that didn't show up was 6th+ round. 2 said top 3 and 2 said 3rd round. Everyone was all over the place on where they would take me as a DE. DT was very similar, but 6 different answers, as this time no one said they would pick me in the top 5. Again though 2 answers for top 3, and 2 more for 1st round, as well as 2nd round. Me as a safety saw GMs give 6 different answers. Most common was 2nd round. Same as DT though, it was as high as top 3, low as 5th round, no one would take me top 5 or 6th+ round though.
The last position I asked about was OL. The position I actually play. This one is the most interesting to me in terms of that information, because that's the one that matters the most for the draft. The highest a GM would take me is -
Come on, I can't be spilling those secrets now?
What I learned from the GMs is that if you play defense, you better do stuff to stand out if you want to get picked high. Teams need defense and the GMs want it, but in such a deep class, you gotta stand out.
The public responses were even more chaotic, even on offense (as was to be expected, the public doesn't really have the same kind of positional value and they treat it more like IRL values of players, especially as it relates to offense). Interestingly, the public was very united on my value as a linebacker. 8/13 picked 1st round value for me, and another 3 went 2nd round. The other 2 responses both said 6th+, which are 2 responses who said 6th+ for everything except kicker, where they said top 3. What I did find very interesting about the public responses is that the people hated the 5th round. Across 9 questions & 13 responses, 5th round was picked just 5 times. Twice for QB, twice for OL, and once for K/P. I think some of that came from the troll responses, as they only picked 6th+ except for kicker - those were the only answers of 6th+ for most positions with the exception of QB/RB/K.
So anyway, that's my analysis on the positional value of the positions. I explains why pretty much the entire 1st round of mock drafts is defense. In my own, the first 9 picks are all defense, and there's just 2 offensive players in the 12 picks. I expect we'll see similar trends in the 2nd round, only broken up by GM picks and a few exceptional offensive players like White Goodman and receivers Lim & Jeeta.
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