05-02-2020, 08:18 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2020, 11:53 AM by IthicaHawk.)
For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
For previous weeks see here:
First off, an update. In my ongoing quest to improve the predictions as much as possible, I have made a minor modifcation to the sheet. I added two additional columns that will seperately calculate win/loss Elo numbers and then apply correctly. This means that, for example, a high ranked team beating a low ranked team will now correctly be awarded a small number of points as will the low ranked team lose a small number of points. On the other hand, if the low ranked team wins, the Elo adjustment is larger for both teams. As it should be. This shuffled the table ever so slightly compared to my week 3 post. I will not be updating that post but I will be posting this weeks rankings as compared to last weeks as posted on the forum. Importantly, none of the actual predictions changed.
Three weeks in and we see two upsets. The minor upset of SaberCats taking the W over Hahalua and the much more unexpected upset of Liberty over Hawks. Liberty only had a 21.03% chance of wining that matchup and yet did so anyway. Going 4/6 this week keeps our season accuracy for predictions at 75%.
In terms of the weekly table. Both ends stayed as-is but we saw a lot of movement around the middle of the table as teams compete for positions 3 through 10. Interestingly, Hahalua and Sailfish swapped places yet again and, despite losing quite different amounts of Elo in their respective losses last week (-39.98 for the Hahalua and -21.80 for the Sailfish) they've ended up with a gap of only 0.03 between them.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(=) 1,689.12
2(=) 1,635.62
3(+1) 1,598.46
4(+1) 1,558.36
5(-2) 1,511.58
6(+1) 1,468.04
7(-1) 1,468.01
8(+1) 1,461.88
9(+1) 1,453.87
10(-2) 1,440.57
11(=) 1,377.99
12(=) 1,303.58
Week 4
@
Top ranked Otters go up against number 9 in the standings this week. Otters of course looking to continue their undefeated season and the odds support that they will with a 84.92% chance of taking the W. Lets not count out SaberCats however who have won their last two with slim or off-odds.
@
A tough match-up for the struggling Butchers this week as Yeti look to try continue their climb up the tables. They've been stalled for a while but the gap between them and Second Line is now within reach. We're giving them a 78.97% chance of taking the win this week.
@
If Second Line want to hold onto their #2 position and continue chasing down Otters they'll need a good showing. Not only do Copperheads have the home field advantage this week, they're a higher ranked team than the SaberCats. Second Line need to hope Otters struggles and they run up the score to close that gap. Second Line have a 67.89% to win.
@
An interesting matchup here as 4th and 5th place face off. Wraiths could hold onto that 4th place despite a loss so long as they keep it close. However, we're predicting that Wraiths will take this one with 65.55% certainty.
@
The war of the expansion teams has almost nothing in it so Sailfish will be looking to take a strong victory here and hopefully put some open air between them and the Hahalua. Liberty are 2-1 however so not to be underestimated. That said, we predict Sailfish with 60.10% chance to win.
@
Unlike Sailfish, Hahalua are on the road visiting the Outlaws. This hurts their chances but we're still estimating they win. It's a very close one with only 53.60% chance however. Important to take the W if they want to keep ontop of the Sailfish
Summary
@ = 84.92%
@ = 78.97%
@ = 67.89%
@ = 65.55%
@ = 60.10%
@ = 53.60%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Three weeks in and we see two upsets. The minor upset of SaberCats taking the W over Hahalua and the much more unexpected upset of Liberty over Hawks. Liberty only had a 21.03% chance of wining that matchup and yet did so anyway. Going 4/6 this week keeps our season accuracy for predictions at 75%.
In terms of the weekly table. Both ends stayed as-is but we saw a lot of movement around the middle of the table as teams compete for positions 3 through 10. Interestingly, Hahalua and Sailfish swapped places yet again and, despite losing quite different amounts of Elo in their respective losses last week (-39.98 for the Hahalua and -21.80 for the Sailfish) they've ended up with a gap of only 0.03 between them.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(=) 1,689.12
2(=) 1,635.62
3(+1) 1,598.46
4(+1) 1,558.36
5(-2) 1,511.58
6(+1) 1,468.04
7(-1) 1,468.01
8(+1) 1,461.88
9(+1) 1,453.87
10(-2) 1,440.57
11(=) 1,377.99
12(=) 1,303.58
Week 4
@
Top ranked Otters go up against number 9 in the standings this week. Otters of course looking to continue their undefeated season and the odds support that they will with a 84.92% chance of taking the W. Lets not count out SaberCats however who have won their last two with slim or off-odds.
@
A tough match-up for the struggling Butchers this week as Yeti look to try continue their climb up the tables. They've been stalled for a while but the gap between them and Second Line is now within reach. We're giving them a 78.97% chance of taking the win this week.
@
If Second Line want to hold onto their #2 position and continue chasing down Otters they'll need a good showing. Not only do Copperheads have the home field advantage this week, they're a higher ranked team than the SaberCats. Second Line need to hope Otters struggles and they run up the score to close that gap. Second Line have a 67.89% to win.
@
An interesting matchup here as 4th and 5th place face off. Wraiths could hold onto that 4th place despite a loss so long as they keep it close. However, we're predicting that Wraiths will take this one with 65.55% certainty.
@
The war of the expansion teams has almost nothing in it so Sailfish will be looking to take a strong victory here and hopefully put some open air between them and the Hahalua. Liberty are 2-1 however so not to be underestimated. That said, we predict Sailfish with 60.10% chance to win.
@
Unlike Sailfish, Hahalua are on the road visiting the Outlaws. This hurts their chances but we're still estimating they win. It's a very close one with only 53.60% chance however. Important to take the W if they want to keep ontop of the Sailfish
Summary
@ = 84.92%
@ = 78.97%
@ = 67.89%
@ = 65.55%
@ = 60.10%
@ = 53.60%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]