05-12-2020, 03:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2020, 03:57 AM by IthicaHawk.)
For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
For previous weeks see here:
Week 8. What a week. Upsets abound with the favourites eating the L in four out of six matchups. Not only that we had some interesting results, including three new instances of Scorigami in the SNFL.
First off, we have the 10-0 shutout of the previously dominant Yeti by Hahalua. Last week, Hahalua lost to the Butchers with a score of 9-5, the lowest winning score in SNFL history and second lowest scoring game of all time. Clearly they looked at that and thought, this is the right way to do things and recorded not only the lowest scoring game of all time but also the lowest scoring shutout of all time. Previously, a shutout has always had at least 15 point scored. Their 10-0 defeat of the Yeti, on the road no less, is good enough for an Elo bump of 52.71, not bad at all.
SaberCats also got a big boost by defeating Liberty 35-9, good enough for 51.95 points. Meanwhile, Otters held off the Sailfish 34-26 and climbed 7.49 points further ahead in the tables.
Speaking of Scorigami, the Copperheads 14-12 victory over the now floudering 1-7 Hawks and the 35-9 score from the SaberCats over Liberty were also instances of Scorigami and have been added to the records as such.
Yeti have fallen further down the tables from second place just three weeks ago, riding high and set to challenge the Otters #1 position, they've sunk down to 5th place and well over 170 points behind the top spot now. Second Line, who dipped down to 4th have climbed back up to reclaim their spot with their defeat of the Wraiths.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(=) 1,700.71
2(+1) 1,631.69
3(-1) 1,622.34
4(+1) 1,580.23
5(-1) 1,533.59
6(+1) 1,481.44
7(+1) 1,477.56
8(-2) 1,435.77
9(+2) 1,416.77
10(-1) 1,416.73
11(-1) 1,403.66
12(=) 1,266.58
Week 9
@
The number one team faces the number seven this week as Otters travel to sunny Hawaii to face the expansion team. Hahalua will need to get their offense in gear having scored a total of 15 points over their last two games compared to the Otters who have scored 74. In the same time, however Otters porous defence have allowed 43 points compared to just 9 by Hahalua proving, without a doubt, that statistics can be used to tell any story we want them to.
Despite being on the road, Otters are the favourites to take this with a 71.31% chance of winning.
@
Yeti started so strong, going 5-0 and beating some tough teams. Then it all fell to pieces, capped off with last weeks 10-0 shutout to Hahalua. No team has been shutout by that few points before. I suppose it can be said that at least their defence was present but the Yeti offense was as hard to find as their mythical namesake. If they want to turn this streak around they'll need to have a strong showing this week. Wraiths are in third and easily in reaching distance of second place once again. We give them 70.79% odds of taking this W.
@
Two fairly equal teams here, both sitting at 3-4-1 but the Copperheads have had a slightly better season overall and are 6th in the tables vs 9th for Outlaws. The home field advantage helps give them 67.84% chance to win this week.
@
Butchers just traded away their starting QB to the Sailfish for a 4th round draft pick next season all but ending the likeliness of a 'late season surge' for the team. That being said, the defence has been fairly strong, able to keep top teams in contention until reasonably late in the game. Except, of course, the 51-10 thumping they took at the hands of Liberty in week 1. This week it's their chance to settle the score but it'll be tough as Liberty are 64.56% favourites.
@
Hawks started the season top 4 and it's been downhill ever since. Now sitting at 1-7 and ranked #11 in the tables, Hawks look like they've had their wings clipped at some point. Their lone win this season was over #12 ranked Butchers so they've not had much to shout about this season. There is still plenty of margin above the #12 spot for them but if they don't start winning soon they might start slipping closer to that bottom spot. Sailfish to win 61.05%
@
Too close to call this one. The #2 spot Second Line travel to San Jose to face the enigmatic SaberCats who have climbed from #11 all the way to #4. With a win here, San Jose could very well break into the top 3.
Second Line can't be discounted of course, they're #2 for a reason. Home Field Advantage goes to SaberCats this week so they end up getting a slim edge with 51.95% chance to win.
Summary
@ = 71.31%
@ = 70.79%
@ = 67.84%
@ = 64.56%
@ = 61.05%
@ = 51.95%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
First off, we have the 10-0 shutout of the previously dominant Yeti by Hahalua. Last week, Hahalua lost to the Butchers with a score of 9-5, the lowest winning score in SNFL history and second lowest scoring game of all time. Clearly they looked at that and thought, this is the right way to do things and recorded not only the lowest scoring game of all time but also the lowest scoring shutout of all time. Previously, a shutout has always had at least 15 point scored. Their 10-0 defeat of the Yeti, on the road no less, is good enough for an Elo bump of 52.71, not bad at all.
SaberCats also got a big boost by defeating Liberty 35-9, good enough for 51.95 points. Meanwhile, Otters held off the Sailfish 34-26 and climbed 7.49 points further ahead in the tables.
Speaking of Scorigami, the Copperheads 14-12 victory over the now floudering 1-7 Hawks and the 35-9 score from the SaberCats over Liberty were also instances of Scorigami and have been added to the records as such.
Yeti have fallen further down the tables from second place just three weeks ago, riding high and set to challenge the Otters #1 position, they've sunk down to 5th place and well over 170 points behind the top spot now. Second Line, who dipped down to 4th have climbed back up to reclaim their spot with their defeat of the Wraiths.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(=) 1,700.71
2(+1) 1,631.69
3(-1) 1,622.34
4(+1) 1,580.23
5(-1) 1,533.59
6(+1) 1,481.44
7(+1) 1,477.56
8(-2) 1,435.77
9(+2) 1,416.77
10(-1) 1,416.73
11(-1) 1,403.66
12(=) 1,266.58
Week 9
@
The number one team faces the number seven this week as Otters travel to sunny Hawaii to face the expansion team. Hahalua will need to get their offense in gear having scored a total of 15 points over their last two games compared to the Otters who have scored 74. In the same time, however Otters porous defence have allowed 43 points compared to just 9 by Hahalua proving, without a doubt, that statistics can be used to tell any story we want them to.
Despite being on the road, Otters are the favourites to take this with a 71.31% chance of winning.
@
Yeti started so strong, going 5-0 and beating some tough teams. Then it all fell to pieces, capped off with last weeks 10-0 shutout to Hahalua. No team has been shutout by that few points before. I suppose it can be said that at least their defence was present but the Yeti offense was as hard to find as their mythical namesake. If they want to turn this streak around they'll need to have a strong showing this week. Wraiths are in third and easily in reaching distance of second place once again. We give them 70.79% odds of taking this W.
@
Two fairly equal teams here, both sitting at 3-4-1 but the Copperheads have had a slightly better season overall and are 6th in the tables vs 9th for Outlaws. The home field advantage helps give them 67.84% chance to win this week.
@
Butchers just traded away their starting QB to the Sailfish for a 4th round draft pick next season all but ending the likeliness of a 'late season surge' for the team. That being said, the defence has been fairly strong, able to keep top teams in contention until reasonably late in the game. Except, of course, the 51-10 thumping they took at the hands of Liberty in week 1. This week it's their chance to settle the score but it'll be tough as Liberty are 64.56% favourites.
@
Hawks started the season top 4 and it's been downhill ever since. Now sitting at 1-7 and ranked #11 in the tables, Hawks look like they've had their wings clipped at some point. Their lone win this season was over #12 ranked Butchers so they've not had much to shout about this season. There is still plenty of margin above the #12 spot for them but if they don't start winning soon they might start slipping closer to that bottom spot. Sailfish to win 61.05%
@
Too close to call this one. The #2 spot Second Line travel to San Jose to face the enigmatic SaberCats who have climbed from #11 all the way to #4. With a win here, San Jose could very well break into the top 3.
Second Line can't be discounted of course, they're #2 for a reason. Home Field Advantage goes to SaberCats this week so they end up getting a slim edge with 51.95% chance to win.
Summary
@ = 71.31%
@ = 70.79%
@ = 67.84%
@ = 64.56%
@ = 61.05%
@ = 51.95%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]