With double media week running out and my bank account still being nearly empty, I needed something else to write about. Well the lucky wheel has spoken and it looks like I’ll be talking about the S23 fantasy season here. I’ll take a look at each position, seeing who was drafted when and what has seemed to work out for the 1st and 2nd place teams in each league.
I’ve put together a list of the ADP for each player that was drafted (for players that went undrafted in a league I used a draft position of 50 for them). There were 23 players/defenses that were drafted in all 32 leagues. 29 of 32 leagues completed their drafts.
![[Image: 55FF0yK.png]](https://i.imgur.com/55FF0yK.png)
Quarterbacks
Heading into the draft, there was a pretty clear top tier of quarterbacks (Franklin Armstrong, Wolfie McDummy, Easton Cole, and Jay Cue). Among these 4, Franklin Armstrong was the first selected on average, being drafted with an ADP of 11.5. The remaining 3 were taken between picks 17 and 23. After these 4, Cooter Bigsby seemed to be the fairly unanimous 5th quarterback. These 5 quarterbacks all seemed like they should be fairly safe and reliable options for this season. However even after these 5 there were still some reasonable options available, though they all had their share of question marks. Dexter Banks II and Brock Phoenix were the most commonly selected 6th quarterbacks, though Stan Francisco and Corvo Havran were also selected in a handful of leagues as well.
13 weeks into the season, Jay Cue is the leading fantasy scorer with 251 points. As he was the 4th QB drafted on average, it’s not surprising that he appears on the most first and second place teams (on the first or second place team in 19 of 32 leagues). It’s actually a little surprising that Cue is only on 6 first place teams, as he has a 30 point lead on the second place quarterback. Franklin Armstrong is the only other quarterback over 200 fantasy points on the season, however as he was drafted over a round earlier than any other quarterback, he only appears on 9 top 2 teams. Surprisingly, Easton Cole actually appears on more first place teams than Jay Cue (9 of 32 compared to just 6 for Jay). Cole is the 3rd highest scoring QB in fantasy, with Wolfie McDummy being less than a point behind him. Cole was actually drafted slightly before McDummy so it’s likely just due to the small sample size that Cole appears on twice as many first and second place teams as McDummy. For those that chose to wait to draft a quarterback, Dexter Banks has turned out to have been the best remaining option. Banks is just 10 points behind Cole and McDummy on the season, and he has outperformed all other options, including Cooter Bigsby and Brock Phoenix. Bigsby actually appears on more first place teams than Banks, however as he was drafted a fair bit earlier than Banks, and has nearly 20 points fewer on the season, it is clear that this is again due to the small sample size.
Since drafters were able to successfully identify the top 4 fantasy quarterbacks heading into the season, it seems that taking a quarterback somewhat early to ensure they got one of the top four options was the slightly better option than waiting until the late rounds. Just based on probability, we would expect two thirds of all first place teams (and second place teams) to have one of the top four QBs. Instead, a little over three quarters of the top two spots are occupied by teams with one of these QB, so it did pay off to take one of them. While it was important to get a top four QB, it didn’t pay off quite as well to take the first QB. At 221 points, 2nd most among QBs, Armstrong hasn’t exactly been a disappointment, however his high draft position has limited the upside he has offered. The best strategy at QB for drafters looks to have been to wait for someone else to use a high draft pick on one, and then try to use a later pick to grab whoever from the first tier was still available.
Number of 1st and 2nd place teams each QB appears on
Running Backs
At the top of every draft, the player picking number one had a tough decision to make – Mathias Hanyadi or Mako Mendonca? The first overall pick was used on was of these two players in 30 of the 32 drafts this season (Sam Torensen was taken 1st overall in the other 2). At the time it looked like Mendonca and Hanyadi would both be fantastic and that drafters couldn’t go wrong with either. However, here we are 12 weeks into the season and Hanyadi has been the best running back in fantasy by far, while Mendonca has been a massive disappointment based on his preseason expectations. Lucky for most that had the number one pick (and unlucky for those with pick number two), they chose right and went with Hanyadi (22 took Hanyadi 1st overall, only 8 took Mendonca). After the top two, it seems like no one could decide who should be the 3rd running back off the board. In total, 9 different running backs were selected as the 3rd running back off the board. However, within this group, two tiers seemed to separate themselves. In the 2nd tier, we had the New Orlenas duo, Marcella Toriki and Forrest Gump, along with Ashley Owens and Sam Torensen. After these 4, was a group of younger running backs, in Darrell Williams, Baby Yoda, and Dax Frost. Frost was selected on a little behind Williams and Yoda on average, however he marked the last of the perceived top running backs, as the next running back had an ADP nearly 20 spots after Frost. There were a number of running backs taken late in drafts, with quite of few of them having very solid seasons that I’ll talk about in a moment. In all, 19 running backs were drafted across all leagues this season.
As I mentioned above, Hanyadi has had a dominant season, at 239 points, he is the only non QB over 200 points. As the chart below shows. Hanyadi pickers have enjoyed successful fantasy seasons for the most part. Appearing on 16 of 32 first place teams, he is one of only two players in fantasy to appear on 50% or more of first place teams (I’ll give you one guess who the other is). After Hanyadi, the running back landscape has been a lot tougher to figure out. There are four other running backs appearing on over 10 teams in first or second place – Tatsu Nakamura, Marcella Toriki, Jamar Lackson, and Forrest Gump. Toriki and Gump were both top 10 picks, and have mostly played like it this season, sitting 3rd and 4th respectively in fantasy points among running backs. However, both have had some down weeks, and both have actually been dropped in a number of leagues. Nakamura and Lackson on the other hand, were both drafted in under 50% of leagues, and have been great waiver pickups for a lot of teams. After these four, we have Darrell Williams and Dax Frost, who, as mentioned, were both drafted just outside the top 10, with Williams going a few picks before Frost. The two have had fairly similar seasons, as they sit within one fantasy point of each other on the season, and are just outside the top 10 running backs. While drafters were likely hoping for a little more from each when they drafted them, neither was a pick that has really hurt their team. After these two, we have a handful of players that appear on just a few top teams across all 32 leagues. Mako Mendonca, Ashley Owens, and Sam Torensen were all drafted as top five running backs, however they have all underperformed this season, and sit 8th, 9th, and 10th in fantasy points among running backs. The high draft capital used on them has definitely hurt their owners, as combined they only appear on 5 first place teams. Baby Yoda and Acura Skyline were both drafted in the majority of leagues, and both have had fairly successful seasons thus far, being solid, yet unspectacular contributors for their fantasy owners. Honolulu has had a surprisingly effective tandem at running back this season, as Ke?oke?o K?ne-Maika?i and Ruff Ruff have actually combined for more fantasy points than any other RB duo in the league (yes even Toriki and Gump). Unfortunately for fantasy owners, it seems that many have been hesitant to buy in, as both are still available in the majority of leagues. For owners that have taken a chance on them, they have been extremely productive, with both being inside the top 5 of all running backs in fantasy points. Julio Tirtawidjaja is another player, like Tatsu Nakamura and Jamar Lackson, that went undrafted in most leagues, but has been a solid pickup for those that took a chance on him.
Overall, it seems like the best strategy for drafting running backs this season was to have the first overall pick and select Hanyadi. For those that weren’t fortunate enough to land Hanyadi, it surprisingly proved more effective to wait until later rounds to select your running back(s). Like Torensen last season, Mako Mendonca has not lived up to expectations for those that drafted him. While top picks Toriki and Gump have performed well, Owens and Torensen have been somewhat disappointing – and a 50% success rate isn’t what you’re looking for in your 1st round pick. Looking ahead to next season, there figures to again be more than 12 viable running backs available, and this will provide an opportunity to those that decide to spend their top picks elsewhere.
Wide Receivers
Saba Donut was the clear cut number one receiver in fantasy coming into the season. He was the first receiver off the board in 27 of 32 leagues, and was taken in the first round in a number of leagues. After Saba we had Bender Rodriguez and Net Gaines, who were the new top dogs in Yellowknife and Austin respectively. Both were 2nd or 3rd round picks for the most part. The third tier of wide receivers selected included Nacho Varga, Hugh Mongo, Sean O’Leary, and Rayne Gordon, all of whom were drafted with an ADP between 18 and 22. The final group of receivers that were selected in the majority of leagues was Deondre Thomas-Fox, Jed Podolak, William Lim, Action Jackson, and Rod Tidwell. Like with running backs, there were a number of late round wide receivers that have had great seasons and have outperformed many of those drafted ahead of them. One player that jumped out to me a little bit when looking at wide receivers ADPs was Nate Swift. After being the top receiver in fantasy last season (I think), Swift was hit hard with regression, and had to compete with the rise of Bender Rodriguez and the acquisition of Action Jackson. In the end, Swift was drafted in just 7 of 32 leagues, however in 6 of the 7 leagues he was drafted in, he was a top 13 pick. In total, 25 wide receivers were drafted across all leagues this season.
At wide receiver, drafters seemed to do a pretty good job, as the first and 3rd receivers off the board, Saba Donut and Net Gaines, have been the clear cut top two receivers in the league this season. At 178 and 172 points respectively, only one other receiver is within 50 points of them. As such, it’s not at all surprising to see them on so many first and second place teams. Each appears on a top two team in nearly two thirds of all leagues. For those that missed out on these two, Rayne Gordon was the next best option. At 156 points, he has far separated himself from everyone else, and as he was drafted a fair bit after Donut and Gaines, he has provided a great ROI for those that selected him. After these three, there is a group of 12 receivers sitting between 100 and 121 points. High draft picks were used on Bender Rodriguez, Nacho Varga, and Hugh Mongo, and while all three have had somewhat disappointing seasons for their owners, the small number of top receivers this season has meant that these three players have not really hurt their teams. Jed Podolak, William Lim, Jah Bur-berry, Future Trunks, and Ed Barker are also in this group. Podolak and Lim were both drafted in most leagues, however it did not take a high pick to get them. Makes sense to see them on so many top teams as they sit right in that 2nd tier and only cost a late round pick. Bur’berry, Trunks and Barker on the other hand all went undrafted in most leagues. Each of them had a hot start to the season, and were common waiver pickups in many leagues. Unfortunately for those that added them, they have fallen off a bit from their early season pace. This would explain why none appear on more top fantasy teams. Rod Tidwell, Sean O’Leary, Action Jackson, and Deondre Thomas-Fox were all among the top wide receivers last season, and were all drafted in most leagues. All were taken with a mid round pick for the most part, with O’Leary being taken first out of the four. Each of them finds themselves part of the 100-120 point group and on just a handful of top fantasy teams each.
This season, the winning strategy at wide receiver was to take one early. While Bender Rodriguez hasn’t worked out quite as well as some hoped, he still sits 4th in the league in receiving yards. Even with his lack of touchdowns, he still appears on a handful of first and second place teams, so he clearly hasn’t hurt his owners that much. The other two top receiver picks, Donut and Gaines, have almost single handedly done enough to put their owners in contention in any league. One thing that has hurt owners that chose to wait on wide receiver in the draft is the lack of options on the waiver wire. Barker and Trunks have been the two most common pick ups, and both have been rather underwhelming since they were added. While I expect Donut, Gaines, and Gordon to be excellent again next season, I expect the gap between the top and everyone else to be much smaller. Bender Rodriguez will likely improve slightly. And younger receivers like William Lim, Ed Barker, Future Trunks, and Asher Quinn, among others, should all be expected to take a big step forward next season.
Tight Ends
Coming into the season, there was a clear cut number one tight end in fantasy. Austin McCormick was the first tight end off the board in all 32 leagues. Looking ahead to next season, I have a feeling we’ll have the same tight end taken first in all 32 leagues again. But it won’t be McCormick. Jeffrey Phillips was the 2nd tight end taken in most drafts this year, however he has been one of the breakout players of the season, and has nearly doubled the production of the 2nd best tight end so far this season. After McCormick and Phillips, there were only two other tight ends that were drafted in over 50% of leagues – Earl Sauce and Heath Evans. There were a number of tight ends that were selected in late rounds, most common was Leon McDavid, Jammerson Irving, Avon Blocksdale Jr, Peter Larson, and James Angler. Angler had not been selected in a single league before the preseason games were streamed just a couple days before the season started. But after putting up solid numbers in all four preseason games, he was selected in a handful of leagues before the season started. Angler has proved to be a solid late round pick up for those that drafted him, though his owners likely can’t help but feel a little disappointed. Angler is actually 2nd in yards among tight ends behind only Jeffrey Phillips, however he has just two touchdowns on the season.
As mentioned, we have at tight end the single most impactful player in fantasy this season, Jeffrey Phillips. While his early season pace has slowed down slightly as of late, he is still by far the top tight end this season. At 142 points, over 50 points ahead of the next best tight end. Combining this with the fact that he wasn’t even the first tight end selected in most leagues, and you have a recipe for a league winning player. Nearly two thirds of all league leaders (21 of 32 leagues) have Phillips at tight end. After Phillips, we have Austin McCormick, James Angler, and Avon Blocksdale Jr all sitting between 80 and 90 points on the season. Angler and Blocksdale both went undrafted in most leagues, and Angler has been the more common waiver addition of the two. It’s not surprising to see Angler on so many 2nd place teams. He is 2nd in tight end scoring, was essentially free for those who have him, and once it was clear what his role on the Sailfish was, owners were confident enough to take him. Blocksdale on the other hand has not been a great fantasy performer in seasons past, so it’s understandable that owners viewed him with a little more skepticism and opted to add Angler instead. While those that drafter Austin McCormick are likely kicking themselves for not taking Phillips instead, the McCormick pick has still worked out alright. Heath Evans and Earl Sauce have both had disappointing seasons. After being drafted in every single league, Evans has failed to crack 50 points on the season. Earl Sauce went undrafted in a few leagues, however those that drafted him were hoping for more than the 53 points he has provided. Peter Larson and James Lewandowski have both performed on par with Evans and Sauce, however both were available at a lesser cost. Both have been reasonable low cost options. One somewhat surprising omission from this list is Leon McDavid. McDavid is less than a point behind Earl Sauce, was available at a later pick than Sauce and Evans, and is on more teams than Larson and Lewandowski. So it is definitely surprising to not see him on at least one first or second place team.
Like running back, the winning strategy at tight end was simple this season: draft Jeffrey Phillips. For those that didn’t get Phillips, waiting until the late rounds to get Angler was the best remaining option. Looking ahead to next season, it will be interesting to see where Phillips gets drafted. I’m sure we will see him go in the first round in more than a few leagues, bit will that be the norm? And with the rise of James Angler and Avon Blocksdale Jr, will the heavy price tag for Phillips be worth it? Angler seems to have remained under the radar, to some extent at least, likely in part due to his lack of touchdowns. James Lewandowski will be someone to keep an eye on next season, as he has had a solid season this year and should only improve as he and QB Chika Fujiwara continue to develop.
Defenses
The Wraiths and Yeti were seen as the top two fantasy defenses entering the season, and they had an ADP within 1 pick of each other, with the Wraiths going around pick 28 and the Yeti going around pick 29. About a round later, the Otters and Second Line defenses were selected. These have been the consensus top four defenses for a few seasons now. The final two defenses that were selected in the majority of leagues were the Copperheads and the Liberty. All 12 defenses were drafted in at least one league, with the Hawks, Butchers, and Hahalua being selected in just one league.
Through 13 weeks, the top fantasy defense was not one of the six that was selected in most leagues. The Arizona Outlaws defense has had an outstanding fantasy season, and have put up 175 points on the season. The Outlaws are owned in 10 leagues, and 3 of them are by the first place team (with 2 more by 2nd place). They have been one of the better waiver pickups this season. After the Outlaws, we have Orange County’s defense at 157 points. As the top defense that is owned in every league, the Otters appear on the most first and second place teams, doing so in nearly half of all leagues. The Wraiths, Copperheads, and Yeti are all owned by 10 or 11 top two teams. Each has performed reasonably well this season. Somewhat surprisingly, the Second Line defense is only on 6 top two teams. As a unit with more fantasy points than all three of Austin, Yellowknife, and Colorado, I would have expected to see New Orleans higher on this list, especially when you consider that they were drafted after Colorado and Yellowknife. One possible explanation for this is Second Line players drafting Second Line players along with their defense, rather than taking the best player available.
Looking at what worked, and what didn’t work this season when drafting defenses, it is hard to draw too many conclusions. Taking one of the top defenses seemed to have worked out pretty well, as seen by the number of top teams with Orange County, Yellowknife, and Colorado. But on the other hand, those that waited on defense did fairly well also, as the Copperheads and Liberty defenses have fared alright, and the Outlaws provided a fantastic options on waivers for those that were looking.
Kickers
Finally we get to the kickers. No kicker was drafted with an ADP in the first 6 rounds. The first kickers off the board were Alex D and Dougie Smalls, who both had an ADP of just over 36 and were the only kickers that were drafted in all 32 leagues. Alfredo Crisco and Silver Banana were the only other kickers that were drafted in over 50% of leagues. Both were selected right around the end of round 7. Other commonly drafted kickers included Venus Powers, Herbert Prohaska, and JJ Jay-Jaymison. All 12 kickers were selected in at least one league.
Looking at the below chart, it appears that drafting a top kicker pays off slightly. Teams that drafted Dougie Smalls have performed quite well, as nearly 60% of them are in first or second place. Teams that drafted Silver Banana, Alex D, and Alfredo Crisco have all done about as well as expected, being one approximately one sixth of first place teams and one third of first or second place teams. Teams that didn’t draft one of the top four kickers have done a bit worse than expected, as they have combined for only 6 first place teams.
It appears that drafters are able to predict the top kickers with a fairly good rate of success. Because of this, and how late kickers are drafted on average, drafters can gain a small edge by simply grabbing a top kicker in round 6 or 7 instead of waiting until their final pick. Many people can find it tough justifying using anything except a last round pick on a kicker, however I think it can definitely be worth it. Drafters should be aware of the remaining needs of their fellow league members. Once 5 of 6 teams have selected a quarterback for example, the 6th team is now free to wait until their final pick to select their QB, as they do not have to worry about anyone else selecting one. This frees them up to use a 7th round pick at the very least on a kicker.
I’ve put together a list of the ADP for each player that was drafted (for players that went undrafted in a league I used a draft position of 50 for them). There were 23 players/defenses that were drafted in all 32 leagues. 29 of 32 leagues completed their drafts.
Quarterbacks
Heading into the draft, there was a pretty clear top tier of quarterbacks (Franklin Armstrong, Wolfie McDummy, Easton Cole, and Jay Cue). Among these 4, Franklin Armstrong was the first selected on average, being drafted with an ADP of 11.5. The remaining 3 were taken between picks 17 and 23. After these 4, Cooter Bigsby seemed to be the fairly unanimous 5th quarterback. These 5 quarterbacks all seemed like they should be fairly safe and reliable options for this season. However even after these 5 there were still some reasonable options available, though they all had their share of question marks. Dexter Banks II and Brock Phoenix were the most commonly selected 6th quarterbacks, though Stan Francisco and Corvo Havran were also selected in a handful of leagues as well.
13 weeks into the season, Jay Cue is the leading fantasy scorer with 251 points. As he was the 4th QB drafted on average, it’s not surprising that he appears on the most first and second place teams (on the first or second place team in 19 of 32 leagues). It’s actually a little surprising that Cue is only on 6 first place teams, as he has a 30 point lead on the second place quarterback. Franklin Armstrong is the only other quarterback over 200 fantasy points on the season, however as he was drafted over a round earlier than any other quarterback, he only appears on 9 top 2 teams. Surprisingly, Easton Cole actually appears on more first place teams than Jay Cue (9 of 32 compared to just 6 for Jay). Cole is the 3rd highest scoring QB in fantasy, with Wolfie McDummy being less than a point behind him. Cole was actually drafted slightly before McDummy so it’s likely just due to the small sample size that Cole appears on twice as many first and second place teams as McDummy. For those that chose to wait to draft a quarterback, Dexter Banks has turned out to have been the best remaining option. Banks is just 10 points behind Cole and McDummy on the season, and he has outperformed all other options, including Cooter Bigsby and Brock Phoenix. Bigsby actually appears on more first place teams than Banks, however as he was drafted a fair bit earlier than Banks, and has nearly 20 points fewer on the season, it is clear that this is again due to the small sample size.
Since drafters were able to successfully identify the top 4 fantasy quarterbacks heading into the season, it seems that taking a quarterback somewhat early to ensure they got one of the top four options was the slightly better option than waiting until the late rounds. Just based on probability, we would expect two thirds of all first place teams (and second place teams) to have one of the top four QBs. Instead, a little over three quarters of the top two spots are occupied by teams with one of these QB, so it did pay off to take one of them. While it was important to get a top four QB, it didn’t pay off quite as well to take the first QB. At 221 points, 2nd most among QBs, Armstrong hasn’t exactly been a disappointment, however his high draft position has limited the upside he has offered. The best strategy at QB for drafters looks to have been to wait for someone else to use a high draft pick on one, and then try to use a later pick to grab whoever from the first tier was still available.
Number of 1st and 2nd place teams each QB appears on
- QB - - - - - - - - -- 1st - - 2nd - - Top 2
- Cue, J. - - - - - - - 6 - - - 13 - - - 19
- Cole, E. - - - - - - - 9 - - -- 5 - - -- 14
- Armstrong, F. - - - 5 - - -- 4 - - - - 9
- McDummy, W. - -- 4 - - -- 3 - - - - 7
- Banks II, D. - - - - 3 - - -- 3 - - - - 6
- Bigsby, C. - - - - -- 4 - - -- 2 - - - - 6
- Phoenix, B. - - - -- 1 - - -- 2 - - - - 3
Running Backs
At the top of every draft, the player picking number one had a tough decision to make – Mathias Hanyadi or Mako Mendonca? The first overall pick was used on was of these two players in 30 of the 32 drafts this season (Sam Torensen was taken 1st overall in the other 2). At the time it looked like Mendonca and Hanyadi would both be fantastic and that drafters couldn’t go wrong with either. However, here we are 12 weeks into the season and Hanyadi has been the best running back in fantasy by far, while Mendonca has been a massive disappointment based on his preseason expectations. Lucky for most that had the number one pick (and unlucky for those with pick number two), they chose right and went with Hanyadi (22 took Hanyadi 1st overall, only 8 took Mendonca). After the top two, it seems like no one could decide who should be the 3rd running back off the board. In total, 9 different running backs were selected as the 3rd running back off the board. However, within this group, two tiers seemed to separate themselves. In the 2nd tier, we had the New Orlenas duo, Marcella Toriki and Forrest Gump, along with Ashley Owens and Sam Torensen. After these 4, was a group of younger running backs, in Darrell Williams, Baby Yoda, and Dax Frost. Frost was selected on a little behind Williams and Yoda on average, however he marked the last of the perceived top running backs, as the next running back had an ADP nearly 20 spots after Frost. There were a number of running backs taken late in drafts, with quite of few of them having very solid seasons that I’ll talk about in a moment. In all, 19 running backs were drafted across all leagues this season.
As I mentioned above, Hanyadi has had a dominant season, at 239 points, he is the only non QB over 200 points. As the chart below shows. Hanyadi pickers have enjoyed successful fantasy seasons for the most part. Appearing on 16 of 32 first place teams, he is one of only two players in fantasy to appear on 50% or more of first place teams (I’ll give you one guess who the other is). After Hanyadi, the running back landscape has been a lot tougher to figure out. There are four other running backs appearing on over 10 teams in first or second place – Tatsu Nakamura, Marcella Toriki, Jamar Lackson, and Forrest Gump. Toriki and Gump were both top 10 picks, and have mostly played like it this season, sitting 3rd and 4th respectively in fantasy points among running backs. However, both have had some down weeks, and both have actually been dropped in a number of leagues. Nakamura and Lackson on the other hand, were both drafted in under 50% of leagues, and have been great waiver pickups for a lot of teams. After these four, we have Darrell Williams and Dax Frost, who, as mentioned, were both drafted just outside the top 10, with Williams going a few picks before Frost. The two have had fairly similar seasons, as they sit within one fantasy point of each other on the season, and are just outside the top 10 running backs. While drafters were likely hoping for a little more from each when they drafted them, neither was a pick that has really hurt their team. After these two, we have a handful of players that appear on just a few top teams across all 32 leagues. Mako Mendonca, Ashley Owens, and Sam Torensen were all drafted as top five running backs, however they have all underperformed this season, and sit 8th, 9th, and 10th in fantasy points among running backs. The high draft capital used on them has definitely hurt their owners, as combined they only appear on 5 first place teams. Baby Yoda and Acura Skyline were both drafted in the majority of leagues, and both have had fairly successful seasons thus far, being solid, yet unspectacular contributors for their fantasy owners. Honolulu has had a surprisingly effective tandem at running back this season, as Ke?oke?o K?ne-Maika?i and Ruff Ruff have actually combined for more fantasy points than any other RB duo in the league (yes even Toriki and Gump). Unfortunately for fantasy owners, it seems that many have been hesitant to buy in, as both are still available in the majority of leagues. For owners that have taken a chance on them, they have been extremely productive, with both being inside the top 5 of all running backs in fantasy points. Julio Tirtawidjaja is another player, like Tatsu Nakamura and Jamar Lackson, that went undrafted in most leagues, but has been a solid pickup for those that took a chance on him.
Overall, it seems like the best strategy for drafting running backs this season was to have the first overall pick and select Hanyadi. For those that weren’t fortunate enough to land Hanyadi, it surprisingly proved more effective to wait until later rounds to select your running back(s). Like Torensen last season, Mako Mendonca has not lived up to expectations for those that drafted him. While top picks Toriki and Gump have performed well, Owens and Torensen have been somewhat disappointing – and a 50% success rate isn’t what you’re looking for in your 1st round pick. Looking ahead to next season, there figures to again be more than 12 viable running backs available, and this will provide an opportunity to those that decide to spend their top picks elsewhere.
- RB - - - - - - - - - - -- 1st - - 2nd - - Top 2
- Hanyadi, M. - - - - - - 16 - -- 10 - -- 26
- Nakamura, T. - - - - -- 8 - - - 5 - - - 13
- Toriki, M. - - - - - - - - 6 - - - 7 - - - 13
- Lackson ®, J. - - - -- 6 - - - 6 - -- 12
- Gump, F. - - - - - - - - 5 - - - 6 - - - 11
- Williams, D. - - - - - - 3 - - - 6 - - - 9
- Frost, D. - - - - - - - - 4 - - - 4 - - - 8
- Tirtawidjaja, J. - - - -- 3 - - - 2 - -- 5
- Yoda, B. - - - - - - - -- 1 - - - 4 - -- 5
- Owens, A. - - - - - - - 2 - - - 3 - - - 5
- Torenson, S. - - - - -- 2 - - - 2 - - - 4
- Ruff, R. - - - - - - - -- 2 - - - 2 - - - 4
- Kane-Maika'i, K. - - - 3 - - - 0 - - - 3
- Mendonca, M. - - - -- 1 - - - 2 - - - 3
- Skyline, A. - - - - - -- 0 - - - 3 - - - 3
- Cardrissian, R. - - - - 0 - - - 1 - - - 1
Wide Receivers
Saba Donut was the clear cut number one receiver in fantasy coming into the season. He was the first receiver off the board in 27 of 32 leagues, and was taken in the first round in a number of leagues. After Saba we had Bender Rodriguez and Net Gaines, who were the new top dogs in Yellowknife and Austin respectively. Both were 2nd or 3rd round picks for the most part. The third tier of wide receivers selected included Nacho Varga, Hugh Mongo, Sean O’Leary, and Rayne Gordon, all of whom were drafted with an ADP between 18 and 22. The final group of receivers that were selected in the majority of leagues was Deondre Thomas-Fox, Jed Podolak, William Lim, Action Jackson, and Rod Tidwell. Like with running backs, there were a number of late round wide receivers that have had great seasons and have outperformed many of those drafted ahead of them. One player that jumped out to me a little bit when looking at wide receivers ADPs was Nate Swift. After being the top receiver in fantasy last season (I think), Swift was hit hard with regression, and had to compete with the rise of Bender Rodriguez and the acquisition of Action Jackson. In the end, Swift was drafted in just 7 of 32 leagues, however in 6 of the 7 leagues he was drafted in, he was a top 13 pick. In total, 25 wide receivers were drafted across all leagues this season.
At wide receiver, drafters seemed to do a pretty good job, as the first and 3rd receivers off the board, Saba Donut and Net Gaines, have been the clear cut top two receivers in the league this season. At 178 and 172 points respectively, only one other receiver is within 50 points of them. As such, it’s not at all surprising to see them on so many first and second place teams. Each appears on a top two team in nearly two thirds of all leagues. For those that missed out on these two, Rayne Gordon was the next best option. At 156 points, he has far separated himself from everyone else, and as he was drafted a fair bit after Donut and Gaines, he has provided a great ROI for those that selected him. After these three, there is a group of 12 receivers sitting between 100 and 121 points. High draft picks were used on Bender Rodriguez, Nacho Varga, and Hugh Mongo, and while all three have had somewhat disappointing seasons for their owners, the small number of top receivers this season has meant that these three players have not really hurt their teams. Jed Podolak, William Lim, Jah Bur-berry, Future Trunks, and Ed Barker are also in this group. Podolak and Lim were both drafted in most leagues, however it did not take a high pick to get them. Makes sense to see them on so many top teams as they sit right in that 2nd tier and only cost a late round pick. Bur’berry, Trunks and Barker on the other hand all went undrafted in most leagues. Each of them had a hot start to the season, and were common waiver pickups in many leagues. Unfortunately for those that added them, they have fallen off a bit from their early season pace. This would explain why none appear on more top fantasy teams. Rod Tidwell, Sean O’Leary, Action Jackson, and Deondre Thomas-Fox were all among the top wide receivers last season, and were all drafted in most leagues. All were taken with a mid round pick for the most part, with O’Leary being taken first out of the four. Each of them finds themselves part of the 100-120 point group and on just a handful of top fantasy teams each.
This season, the winning strategy at wide receiver was to take one early. While Bender Rodriguez hasn’t worked out quite as well as some hoped, he still sits 4th in the league in receiving yards. Even with his lack of touchdowns, he still appears on a handful of first and second place teams, so he clearly hasn’t hurt his owners that much. The other two top receiver picks, Donut and Gaines, have almost single handedly done enough to put their owners in contention in any league. One thing that has hurt owners that chose to wait on wide receiver in the draft is the lack of options on the waiver wire. Barker and Trunks have been the two most common pick ups, and both have been rather underwhelming since they were added. While I expect Donut, Gaines, and Gordon to be excellent again next season, I expect the gap between the top and everyone else to be much smaller. Bender Rodriguez will likely improve slightly. And younger receivers like William Lim, Ed Barker, Future Trunks, and Asher Quinn, among others, should all be expected to take a big step forward next season.
- WR - - - - - - - - - - 1st - - 2nd - - Top 2
- Donut, S. - - - - - - 11 - -- 10 - - - 21
- Gaines, N. - - - - -- 10 - - - 9 - - - 19
- Gordon, R. - - - - -- 9 - - -- 6 - - - 15
- Podolak, J. - - - - -- 6 - - -- 5 - - - 11
- Varga, N. - - - - - -- 4 - - -- 4 - - - 8
- Lim, W. - - - - - - -- 4 - - -- 4 - - -- 8
- Mongo, H. - - - - - - 3 - - -- 4 - - - 7
- Rodriguez, B. - - - - 3 - - -- 4 - - - 7
- Trunks, F. - - - - - - 4 - - - - 3 - - - 7
- Thomas-Fox, D. - - 2 - - - - 5 - - - 7
- Barker, E. - - - - - - 3 - - - - 2 - - - 5
- Bur'berry, J. - - - -- 3 - - - - 2 - - - 5
- Jackson, A. - - - - - 0 - - - - 4 - - - 4
- O'Leary, S. - - - - - 1 - - - - 2 - - -- 3
- Tidwell, R. - - - - -- 1 - - - - 1 - - - 2
- Quinn, A. - - - - - - 1 - - - - 0 - - - 1
- Passmann, T. - - - - 1 - - -- 0 - - - 1
Tight Ends
Coming into the season, there was a clear cut number one tight end in fantasy. Austin McCormick was the first tight end off the board in all 32 leagues. Looking ahead to next season, I have a feeling we’ll have the same tight end taken first in all 32 leagues again. But it won’t be McCormick. Jeffrey Phillips was the 2nd tight end taken in most drafts this year, however he has been one of the breakout players of the season, and has nearly doubled the production of the 2nd best tight end so far this season. After McCormick and Phillips, there were only two other tight ends that were drafted in over 50% of leagues – Earl Sauce and Heath Evans. There were a number of tight ends that were selected in late rounds, most common was Leon McDavid, Jammerson Irving, Avon Blocksdale Jr, Peter Larson, and James Angler. Angler had not been selected in a single league before the preseason games were streamed just a couple days before the season started. But after putting up solid numbers in all four preseason games, he was selected in a handful of leagues before the season started. Angler has proved to be a solid late round pick up for those that drafted him, though his owners likely can’t help but feel a little disappointed. Angler is actually 2nd in yards among tight ends behind only Jeffrey Phillips, however he has just two touchdowns on the season.
As mentioned, we have at tight end the single most impactful player in fantasy this season, Jeffrey Phillips. While his early season pace has slowed down slightly as of late, he is still by far the top tight end this season. At 142 points, over 50 points ahead of the next best tight end. Combining this with the fact that he wasn’t even the first tight end selected in most leagues, and you have a recipe for a league winning player. Nearly two thirds of all league leaders (21 of 32 leagues) have Phillips at tight end. After Phillips, we have Austin McCormick, James Angler, and Avon Blocksdale Jr all sitting between 80 and 90 points on the season. Angler and Blocksdale both went undrafted in most leagues, and Angler has been the more common waiver addition of the two. It’s not surprising to see Angler on so many 2nd place teams. He is 2nd in tight end scoring, was essentially free for those who have him, and once it was clear what his role on the Sailfish was, owners were confident enough to take him. Blocksdale on the other hand has not been a great fantasy performer in seasons past, so it’s understandable that owners viewed him with a little more skepticism and opted to add Angler instead. While those that drafter Austin McCormick are likely kicking themselves for not taking Phillips instead, the McCormick pick has still worked out alright. Heath Evans and Earl Sauce have both had disappointing seasons. After being drafted in every single league, Evans has failed to crack 50 points on the season. Earl Sauce went undrafted in a few leagues, however those that drafted him were hoping for more than the 53 points he has provided. Peter Larson and James Lewandowski have both performed on par with Evans and Sauce, however both were available at a lesser cost. Both have been reasonable low cost options. One somewhat surprising omission from this list is Leon McDavid. McDavid is less than a point behind Earl Sauce, was available at a later pick than Sauce and Evans, and is on more teams than Larson and Lewandowski. So it is definitely surprising to not see him on at least one first or second place team.
Like running back, the winning strategy at tight end was simple this season: draft Jeffrey Phillips. For those that didn’t get Phillips, waiting until the late rounds to get Angler was the best remaining option. Looking ahead to next season, it will be interesting to see where Phillips gets drafted. I’m sure we will see him go in the first round in more than a few leagues, bit will that be the norm? And with the rise of James Angler and Avon Blocksdale Jr, will the heavy price tag for Phillips be worth it? Angler seems to have remained under the radar, to some extent at least, likely in part due to his lack of touchdowns. James Lewandowski will be someone to keep an eye on next season, as he has had a solid season this year and should only improve as he and QB Chika Fujiwara continue to develop.
- TE - - - - - - - - - - - 1st - - 2nd - - Top 2
- Phillips, J. - - - - - -- 21 - -- 5 - - - 26
- Angler ®, J. - - - - - - 2 - - - 9 - - - 11
- McCormick, A. - - - -- 3 - -- 4 - - -- 7
- Evans, H. - - - - - - -- 2 - -- 4 - - -- 6
- Sauce, E. - - - - - - -- 1 - -- 5 - - -- 6
- Blocksdale Jr., A. - - - 3 - -- 1 - - -- 4
- Larson, P. - - - - - - -- 0 - -- 3 - - -- 3
- Lewandowski, J. - - -- 0 - -- 1 - - -- 1
Defenses
The Wraiths and Yeti were seen as the top two fantasy defenses entering the season, and they had an ADP within 1 pick of each other, with the Wraiths going around pick 28 and the Yeti going around pick 29. About a round later, the Otters and Second Line defenses were selected. These have been the consensus top four defenses for a few seasons now. The final two defenses that were selected in the majority of leagues were the Copperheads and the Liberty. All 12 defenses were drafted in at least one league, with the Hawks, Butchers, and Hahalua being selected in just one league.
Through 13 weeks, the top fantasy defense was not one of the six that was selected in most leagues. The Arizona Outlaws defense has had an outstanding fantasy season, and have put up 175 points on the season. The Outlaws are owned in 10 leagues, and 3 of them are by the first place team (with 2 more by 2nd place). They have been one of the better waiver pickups this season. After the Outlaws, we have Orange County’s defense at 157 points. As the top defense that is owned in every league, the Otters appear on the most first and second place teams, doing so in nearly half of all leagues. The Wraiths, Copperheads, and Yeti are all owned by 10 or 11 top two teams. Each has performed reasonably well this season. Somewhat surprisingly, the Second Line defense is only on 6 top two teams. As a unit with more fantasy points than all three of Austin, Yellowknife, and Colorado, I would have expected to see New Orleans higher on this list, especially when you consider that they were drafted after Colorado and Yellowknife. One possible explanation for this is Second Line players drafting Second Line players along with their defense, rather than taking the best player available.
Looking at what worked, and what didn’t work this season when drafting defenses, it is hard to draw too many conclusions. Taking one of the top defenses seemed to have worked out pretty well, as seen by the number of top teams with Orange County, Yellowknife, and Colorado. But on the other hand, those that waited on defense did fairly well also, as the Copperheads and Liberty defenses have fared alright, and the Outlaws provided a fantastic options on waivers for those that were looking.
- DEF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1st - - 2nd - - Top 2
- Orange County Otters - - - - - - 7 - - - 8 - - -- 15
- Yellowknife Wraiths - - - - - - -- 3 - - - 8 - - -- 11
- Austin Copperheads - - - - - - - 4 - - - 7 - - - - 11
- Colorado Yeti - - - - - - - - - - -- 7 - - - 3 - - -- 10
- New Orleans Second Line - - - 3 - - - 3 - - -- 6
- Philadelphia Liberty - - - - - - -- 4 - - - 1 - - -- 5
- Arizona Outlaws - - - - - - - - -- 3 - - - 2 - - -- 5
- Sarasota Sailfish - - - - - - - - -- 1 - - - 0 - - -- 1
Kickers
Finally we get to the kickers. No kicker was drafted with an ADP in the first 6 rounds. The first kickers off the board were Alex D and Dougie Smalls, who both had an ADP of just over 36 and were the only kickers that were drafted in all 32 leagues. Alfredo Crisco and Silver Banana were the only other kickers that were drafted in over 50% of leagues. Both were selected right around the end of round 7. Other commonly drafted kickers included Venus Powers, Herbert Prohaska, and JJ Jay-Jaymison. All 12 kickers were selected in at least one league.
Looking at the below chart, it appears that drafting a top kicker pays off slightly. Teams that drafted Dougie Smalls have performed quite well, as nearly 60% of them are in first or second place. Teams that drafted Silver Banana, Alex D, and Alfredo Crisco have all done about as well as expected, being one approximately one sixth of first place teams and one third of first or second place teams. Teams that didn’t draft one of the top four kickers have done a bit worse than expected, as they have combined for only 6 first place teams.
It appears that drafters are able to predict the top kickers with a fairly good rate of success. Because of this, and how late kickers are drafted on average, drafters can gain a small edge by simply grabbing a top kicker in round 6 or 7 instead of waiting until their final pick. Many people can find it tough justifying using anything except a last round pick on a kicker, however I think it can definitely be worth it. Drafters should be aware of the remaining needs of their fellow league members. Once 5 of 6 teams have selected a quarterback for example, the 6th team is now free to wait until their final pick to select their QB, as they do not have to worry about anyone else selecting one. This frees them up to use a 7th round pick at the very least on a kicker.
- K - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1st - - 2nd - - Top 2
- Smalls, D. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9 - - - 9 - - -- 18
- Banana, S. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- 5 - - - 6 - - -- 11
- Dasistwirklichseinnachname, A. - 6 - - - 4 - - -- 10
- Crisco, A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- 6 - - - 3 - - -- 9
- McDairmid, M. - - - - - - - - - - - - -- 2 - - - 2 - - -- 4
- Brand, F. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - - - 3 - - -- 4
- Jay-Jaymison, J. - - - - - - - - - - - -- 2 - - - 1 - - -- 3
- Prohaska, H. - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- 0 - - - 2 - - -- 2
- Powers, V. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - - - 1 - - -- 2
- Small ®, J. - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- 0 - - - 1 - - -- 1
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