I have been hoping to write this article for about two months now, but my goodness life is crazy sometimes isn’t it! I am really excited to write this follow up piece to my previous article “Does Week One Really Matter?” in which I explored the correlations between early season winning streaks and conference/league championships. In this piece, I am investigating the correlation between season-ending win streaks and conference/league championships; in other words, “Does Week 14/17/Whatever The Last Week Is In A Given Season Matter?” Catchy, right?
Going into this, I had a few hypotheses that I believed would be found as a result of this research. At the time of writing this paragraph and the following hypotheses, I have no idea how they are going to play out, so I might look real dumb by the end of this article, or if I’m lucky, I might look like a genius. I assure you all, I am not the latter. Let’s get into it!
Initial Hypotheses:
1) End of the year streaks will matter the most in the DSFL due to the amount of change that a team can go through top to bottom over the course of the season. A team is more likely to be able to separate from the pack if they have a great draft class and great strategies.
2) End of the year streaks will matter significantly less in the ISFL since teams do not change as significantly over the course of the year based on TPE earnings but tend to be about as talented as they were at the start of the year.
3) NFL winners may have a lot of 0-1 finishes as elite teams rest their best players before the playoffs if they have nothing to play for.
4) Streaks of 0-2 or more will be rare in any of the championship games as the best teams tend to peak towards the end of the year.
A note on formatting: for each season, I will list the winning team followed by their winning or losing streak that they carried into the playoffs. I will then list the losing team follow by their winning or losing streak that they carried into the playoffs. And just for fun, I’ve included the final score of each game as well for you all who like to walk down memory lane. To make sure final streaks are clearly understood, if, in a 14 week season, a team lost week 11 and then won weeks 12-14 their final streak would be (3-0) as they won the last three games of the regular season. If they lost on week 14 after winning week 13, their final streak would be (0-1). If a tie occurred during their last winning or losing streak, it is not considered the end of a streak, so a team that loses week 9, wins weeks 10-12, ties week 13, and wins week 14 would have a final streak of (3-0-1). If you’re confused, just ask me and I’ll try to clear it up! Here we go!
ISFL
Ultimus Losers Last Week of the Regular Season – (14-9) – 61%
Ultimus Participants Last Week of the Regular Season – (26-20) – 57%
Better streak coming into the Ultimus (11-12) – 48%
DSFL
Ultimini Losers Last Week of the Regular Season – (7-14) – 33%
Ultimini Participants Last Week of the Regular Season – (22-20) – 52%
Better streak coming into the Ultimini (14-7) – 67%
NFL
Super Bowl Losers Last Week of the Regular Season – (39-15) – 72%
Super Bowl Participants Last Week of the Regular Season – (81-27) – 75%
Better streak coming into the Super Bowl (25-23-6) – 52%
I know it’s a lot of information! If you’re wanting to look into all of these seasons and numbers there are some of what I consider to be really interesting moments throughout the history of both simulation leagues and the NFL represented above. Some unique accomplishments include the Orange County Otters of season 19 who are the only team with an 0-3 finish to the season in the ISFL to ever win the Ultimus. The same feat was accomplished only once in the DSFL by the season 6 San Antonio Marshals. In the NFL, this has also only happened a single time with the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl 44 who went 13-0 to start the year, 0-3 to finish it out, and then won the super bowl. An onside kick to start off the second half of that game was indicative of just how much of a roller coaster that season was in New Orleans. On the other side of things, something I found fascinating was that the longest winning streak heading into the playoffs in each league resulted in a championship loss. The season 7 Orange County Otters went off to end the season on a nine game winning streak, only to lose in the Ultimus. Season 20 saw the Myrtle Beach end the season on a nine game winning streak of their own that also ended in a loss in the Ultimini. And who could forget Super Bowl 42? The only 16-0 regular season ended for the New England Patriots with a helmet catch and a miracle win by the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. So while we all want to end the season hot, watch out for a lengthy winning streak – it most definitely puts a target on your back!
Now, let’s investigate those initial hypotheses and see if I was right!
Hypothesis #1) End of the year streaks will matter the most in the DSFL due to the amount of change that a team can go through top to bottom over the course of the season. A team is more likely to be able to separate from the pack if they have a great draft class and great strategies.
This hypothesis is a bit of a mixed bag as far as the results are concerned. It seems that, for the winners of the Ultimini, end of the season streaks are a big deal. 71% of Ultimini winners won the last game of the season compared to only 52% of Ultimus winners. I attribute this to, as I presupposed in my hypothesis, the ability for the best teams to grow and emerge over the course of a season when you hit with multiple max earning picks as well as solid strategies emerging as teams mesh together throughout the course of the year. However, as much as this seemed like a win when looking at the winners, I have to remember that Ultimini losers are conference champions, and only 33% of them won the final game of the regular season, bringing the participant win percentage down to 52% - lower than both the Ultimus and the Super Bowl participants’ winning percentages. Once again, though, the team coming into the Ultimini with a better winning streak to end the year wins 67% of the time, whereas in the ISFL and the NFL it was a coinflip between which team would win.
I’m not completely sure what to make of this; does one time separate from the pack more often in the DSFL or is this simply a case of me wanting to see that happening because it would prove my own hypothesis? Since there seems to be some weight to my hypothesis but certainly some lingering doubt as well, I’m going to say on the scale of real dumb to genius, this hypothesis makes me look like an average 7th grade student. Trying my best, but too distracted by hormones to get anything completely right.
![[Image: Ways-to-get-your-child-focus.jpg]](https://www.greatschools.org/gk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Ways-to-get-your-child-focus.jpg)
That brings us to hypothesis #2) End of the year streaks will matter significantly less in the ISFL since teams do not change as significantly over the course of the year based on TPE earnings but tend to be about as talented as they were at the start of the year.
I find this to be one of my better assertions from before this analysis. In the ISFL, teams that are good begin and end the season that way as there is not a significant enough percentage of TPE earning to greatly sway who has the best and worst records. Short of a blockbuster trade, the best generally stay that way and the worst do not greatly improve. Because of this, it is not surprising to me in the slightest that all of the win percentages for these teams hover around 60% for the final week of the regular season. A huge number of these last week losses actually came at the hands of the team they went against in the Ultimus, so I do believe that the Ultimus winners’ win percentage being lower was the result of unlucky matchups for the sake of this statistical analysis. The biggest indicator that was in favor of this hypothesis was the results of the Ultimus in relation to end of the year winning streaks. While in the DSFL the better streak won 2/3s of the matchups, in the ISFL, not even half of the champions were those who possessed the better end of the season winning streak, indicating that these streaks are far less predictive in the ISFL than in the DSFL.
This is certainly by no means a home run of a hypothesis, primarily because the Ultimini results were not nearly as inflated as I expected them to be, but was a solid guess nonetheless. Therefore, on the real dumb to genius scale, I award myself the status of member (but not on the cabinet) of the nerdy frat on campus, giving solid general analysis but constantly overestimating and disappointing myself with my own lack of social prowess.
![[Image: Revenge-of-the-Nerds-1984-revenge-of-the...50-534.jpg]](https://am23.mediaite.com/tms/cnt/uploads/2015/04/Revenge-of-the-Nerds-1984-revenge-of-the-nerds-11710197-950-534.jpg)
On we go to hypothesis #3) NFL winners may have a lot of 0-1 finishes as elite teams rest their best players before the playoffs if they have nothing to play for.
I thought this was certain to be a home run of a hypothesis, but the more I thought about it, the more I wondered how many of these Super Bowl competitors had a week one bye all locked up before week 17. It’s honestly not that common to have such a grip on the league that you don’t need to play your starters week 17, and even if you bench those starters so many of these teams are deep enough that they still can compete – especially if they’re lucky and draw the Browns week 17…All that to say, this turned out to be a rotten hypothesis. Super Bowl participants won week 17 a whopping 75% of the time! That’s a 20% higher winning percentage than the Ultimini and Ultimus participants combined, which is absolutely backwards from how I thought this would turn out.
All in all, I think on this hypothesis I underplayed the role of momentum in live football, as so many teams who did not have those extra weeks of rest kept the ball rolling all the way to the super bowl. For this prediction I give myself the grade on the standard scale of real dumb to genius of a chimpanzee just beginning to learn sign language, aware for the first time that there is communication outside of grunts and screeches, but almost entirely unaware of how to interpret the outside world.
![[Image: KimballStock_CHI-03-RK0194-01_preview.jpg]](https://www.kimballstock.com/pr/159472846/KimballStock_CHI-03-RK0194-01_preview.jpg)
The final hypothesis (#4) stated that streaks of 0-2 or more will be rare in any of the championship games as the best teams tend to peak towards the end of the year.
This was likely my safest hypothesis, and it came through for me big time. Out of 196 participating teams in the lists above, only 17 of them ended the season 0-2 or worse, a miniscule 8.7% meaning that less than one of every 10 teams to make a championship game came into the playoffs on a true losing streak, rather than just a final week loss that may have come due to lack of concentration or resting starting players in the case of the NFL. This is by no means groundbreaking; it is not likely that many of these teams had significant losing streaks at any point in their seasons, but the best of the best tend to rise at the end of the year and this statistic helped to show just how atypical it is for a team that is not playing its best ball at the end of the regular season to suddenly right the ship and make a deep playoff run.
If your team is looking to make a splash in the history books this year, make sure that you don’t take those last weeks for granted. Whether it be home field advantage or momentum that makes the bigger difference, historically speaking you’re in for a serious uphill battle if you come in on a cold stretch.
While this prediction certainly panned out, it was also definitely a low risk hypothesis, so on the official real dumb to genius scale, I’ll give myself a grade of a killer home run hit…in tee ball
![[Image: TBall-Photo.jpg]](https://durantokkidsbaseball.teamsnapsites.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2011/2019/11/TBall-Photo.jpg)
All in all, I am happy with the results of this long overdue dive into how the end of the season reflects upon the conference and league champions in the history of these three leagues. A few major takeaways for me are as follows:
1) In the DSFL, there is a far greater correlation between end of the season success and bringing home the banner than in the ISFL. This is likely due to the greater relative impact that TPE earning can have on the overall team performance in the course of a single season. If a team has a killer draft class with several max earners, they can separate from the pack towards the end of the season and, more often than not, this is the story of the champion each season.
2) In the ISFL, you’re going to have to find more creative ways to set your team apart than simply earning TPE. TPE earning still certainly matters, but in a league where the best players have already maxed out their most important stats, team strategy and scouting is going to be more important and you just might want to save a few tricks for the playoffs – it truly appears to be anybody’s game once you get there.
3) The NFL’s human element cannot be copied by our simulation and I don’t think that is a bad thing. If we were to add in a significant advantage to momentum or team morale we would see a lot of unbeatable teams or teams that cannot possibly win. The smaller size of our leagues also contributes to this, as the talent is not so widely dispersed that you end up with teams that cannot compete for multiple years. The rarity of a 49ers team that goes from worst to first in the NFC is still uncommon in our league, but not so impossible as to make a rebuild seem so daunting of a task here.
It doesn’t feel right to give myself my overall grade, so I’ll leave that up to the community. Comment below, keeping in mind that this is of course on a scale of real dumb to genius…
(4,087 words...ready to be graded)
Going into this, I had a few hypotheses that I believed would be found as a result of this research. At the time of writing this paragraph and the following hypotheses, I have no idea how they are going to play out, so I might look real dumb by the end of this article, or if I’m lucky, I might look like a genius. I assure you all, I am not the latter. Let’s get into it!
Initial Hypotheses:
1) End of the year streaks will matter the most in the DSFL due to the amount of change that a team can go through top to bottom over the course of the season. A team is more likely to be able to separate from the pack if they have a great draft class and great strategies.
2) End of the year streaks will matter significantly less in the ISFL since teams do not change as significantly over the course of the year based on TPE earnings but tend to be about as talented as they were at the start of the year.
3) NFL winners may have a lot of 0-1 finishes as elite teams rest their best players before the playoffs if they have nothing to play for.
4) Streaks of 0-2 or more will be rare in any of the championship games as the best teams tend to peak towards the end of the year.
A note on formatting: for each season, I will list the winning team followed by their winning or losing streak that they carried into the playoffs. I will then list the losing team follow by their winning or losing streak that they carried into the playoffs. And just for fun, I’ve included the final score of each game as well for you all who like to walk down memory lane. To make sure final streaks are clearly understood, if, in a 14 week season, a team lost week 11 and then won weeks 12-14 their final streak would be (3-0) as they won the last three games of the regular season. If they lost on week 14 after winning week 13, their final streak would be (0-1). If a tie occurred during their last winning or losing streak, it is not considered the end of a streak, so a team that loses week 9, wins weeks 10-12, ties week 13, and wins week 14 would have a final streak of (3-0-1). If you’re confused, just ask me and I’ll try to clear it up! Here we go!
ISFL
- Season 1 – The Arizona Outlaws (0-1) beat the Colorado Yeti (1-0). Final score: 29-6
- Season 2 – The Arizona Outlaws (6-0) beat the Baltimore Hawks (0-2). Final score: 33-6
- Season 3 – The Arizona Outlaws (2-0) beat the Baltimore Hawks (0-2). Final score: 49-12
- Season 4 – The Orange County Otters (0-1) beat the Yellowknife Wraiths (1-0). Final score: 30-23
- Season 5 – The Orange County Otters (0-1) beat the Yellowknife Wraiths (2-0). Final score: 26-15
- Season 6 – The Orange County Otters (4-0) beat the Philadelphia Liberty (3-0). Final score: 23-17
- Season 7 - The Philadelphia Liberty (0-2) beat the Orange County Otters (9-0). Final score: 28-19
- Season 8 – The Yellowknife Wraiths (2-0) beat the New Orleans Second Line (1-0). Final score: 24-13
- Season 9 – The New Orleans Second Line (4-0) beat the Baltimore Hawks (0-1). Final score: 37-24
- Season 10 – The Baltimore Hawks (7-0) beat the New Orleans Second Line (0-1). Final score: 29-23
- Season 11 – The New Orleans Second Line (3-0) beat the Baltimore Hawks (0-1). Final score: 42-36 (OT)
- Season 12 – The Orange County Otters (0-2) beat the Baltimore Hawks (2-0). Final score: 48-24
- Season 13 – The Orange County Otters (0-1) beat the Colorado Yeti (2-0). Final score: 24-21
- Season 14 – The San Jose Saber Cats (2-0) beat the Philadelphia Liberty (0-3). Final score: 36-24
- Season 15 – The Baltimore Hawks (1-0) beat the San Jose Saber Cats (2-0). Final score: 49-0
- Season 16 – The Arizona Outlaws (0-1) beat the Philadelphia Liberty (1-0). Final score: 34-30
- Season 17 – The Orange County Otters (1-0) beat the Baltimore Hawks (0-1). Final score: 28-17
- Season 18 – The Orange County Otters (5-0) beat the Yellowknife Wraiths (0-1). Final score: 16-10
- Season 19 – The Orange County Otters (0-3) beat the Yellowknife Wraiths (2-0). Final score: 30-27
- Season 20 – The Austin Copperheads (0-1) beat the Yellowknife Wraiths (2-0). Final score: 37-20
- Season 21 – The New Orleans Second Line (0-4) beat the Yellowknife Wraiths (0-1). Final score: 33-13
- Season 22 – The Colorado Yeti (2-0) beat the Orange County Otters (1-0). Final score: 25-24
- Season 23 – The Yellowknife Wraiths (0-2) beat the Austin Copperheads (2-0). Final score: 38-13
Ultimus Losers Last Week of the Regular Season – (14-9) – 61%
Ultimus Participants Last Week of the Regular Season – (26-20) – 57%
Better streak coming into the Ultimus (11-12) – 48%
DSFL
- Seasons 1-2 NO DSFL
- Season 3 – The San Antonio Marshals (2-0) beat the Norfolk Seawolves (0-1). Final score: 19-3
- Season 4 – The Portland Pythons (4-0) beat the San Antonio Marshals (0-1). Final score: 27-14
- Season 5 – The Palm Beach Solar Bears (3-0) beat the Portland Pythons (6-0). Final score: 17-13
- Season 6 – The San Antonio Marshals (0-3) beat the Kansas City Coyotes (0-1). Final score: 23-13
- Season 7 – The Portland Pythons (5-0) beat the Tijuana Luchadores (0-1). Final score: 24-17
- Season 8 – The Tijuana Luchadores (0-1) beat the Kansas City Coyotes (6-0). Final score: 21-20
- Season 9 – The Tijuana Luchadores (3-0) beat the Portland Pythons (1-0). Final score: 30-24
- Season 10 – The Tijuana Luchadores (5-0) beat the Portland Pythons (0-1). Final score: 37-7
- Season 11 – The Portland Pythons (8-0) beat the Tijuana Luchadores (0-2). Final score: 13-6
- Season 12 – The Kansas City Coyotes (4-0) beat the San Antonio Marshals (0-1). Final score: 37-7
- Season 13 – The Tijuana Luchadores (0-1) beat the Kansas City Coyotes (3-0). Final score: 30-27
- Season 14 – The Portland Pythons (3-0) beat the Tijuana Luchadores (0-1). Final score: 34-20
- Season 15 – The Palm Beach Solar Bears (0-1) beat the Portland Pythons (0-2). Final score: 17-13
- Season 16 – The Tijuana Luchadores (0-1) beat the Portland Pythons (5-0). Final score: 28-14
- Season 17 – The Tijuana Luchadores (0-2) beat the Portland Pythons (0-1). Final score: 17-16
- Season 18 – The Portland Pythons (5-0) beat the San Antonio Marshals (0-1). Final score: 23-10
- Season 19 – The Minnesota Grey Ducks (4-0) beat the Tijuana Luchadores (1-0). Final score: 16-13
- Season 20 – The Minnesota Grey Ducks (6-0) beat the Myrtle Beach Buccaneers (9-0). Final score: 28-13
- Season 21 – The Myrtle Beach Buccaneers (1-0) beat the Kansas City Coyotes (0-1). Final score: 27-10
- Season 22 – The Tijuana Luchadores (1-0) beat the London Royals (0-1). Final score: 10-6
- Season 23 – The Norfolk Seawolves (4-0) beat the Kansas City Coyotes (0-4). Final score: 26-6
Ultimini Losers Last Week of the Regular Season – (7-14) – 33%
Ultimini Participants Last Week of the Regular Season – (22-20) – 52%
Better streak coming into the Ultimini (14-7) – 67%
NFL
- Super Bowl 1 – The Green Bay Packers (5-0) beat the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0-1). Final Score: 35-10
- Super Bowl 2 – The Green Bay Packers (0-2) beat the Oakland Raiders (10-0). Final Score: 33-14
- Super Bowl 3 – The New York Jets (4-0) beat the Baltimore Colts (8-0). Final Score: 16-7
- Super Bowl 4 – The Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) beat the Minnesota Vikings (0-1). Final Score: 23-7
- Super Bowl 5 – The Baltimore Colts (4-0) beat the Dallas Cowboys (5-0). Final Score: 16-13
- Super Bowl 6 – The Dallas Cowboys (7-0) beat the Miami Dolphins (1-0). Final Score: 24-
- Super Bowl 7 – The Miami Dolphins (14-0) beat the Washington Redskins (0-2). Final Score: 14-7
- Super Bowl 8 – The Miami Dolphins (1-0) beat the Minnesota Vikings (2-0). Final Score: 24-7
- Super Bowl 9 – The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) beat the Minnesota Vikings (3-0). Final Score: 16-6
- Super Bowl 10 – The Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) beat the Dallas Cowboys (2-0). Final Score: 21-17
- Super Bowl 11 – The Oakland Raiders (10-0) beat the Minnesota Vikings (2-0). Final Score: 32-14
- Super Bowl 12 – The Dallas Cowboys (4-0) beat the Denver Broncos (0-1). Final Score: 27-10
- Super Bowl 13 – The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) beat the Dallas Cowboys (6-0). Final Score 35-31
- Super Bowl 14 – The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) beat the Los Angeles Rams (0-1). Final Score: 31-19
- Super Bowl 15 – The Oakland Raiders (2-0) beat the Philadelphia Eagles (0-1). Final Score: 27-10
- Super Bowl 16 – The San Francisco 49ers (5-0) beat the Cincinnati Bengals (2-0). Final Score: 26-21
- Super Bowl 17 – The Washington Redskins (4-0) beat the Miami Dolphins (3-0). Final Score: 27-17
- Super Bowl 18 – The Los Angeles Raiders (1-0) beat the Washington Redskins (9-0). Final Score: 38-9
- Super Bowl 19 – The San Francisco 49ers (9-0) beat the Miami Dolphins (2-0). Final Score: 38-16
- Super Bowl 20 – The Chicago Bears (3-0) beat the New England Patriots (1-0). Final Score: 46-10
- Super Bowl 21 – The New York Giants (9-0) beat the Denver Broncos (0-1). Final Score: 39-20
- Super Bowl 22 – The Washington Redskins (1-0) beat the Denver Broncos (2-0). Final Score: 42-10
- Super Bowl 23 – The San Francisco 49ers (0-1) beat the Cincinnati Bengals (1-0). Final Score: 20-16
- Super Bowl 24 – The San Francisco 49ers (5-0) beat the Denver Broncos (0-1). Final Score: 55-10
- Super Bowl 25 – The New York Giants (2-0) beat the Buffalo Bills (0-1). Final Score: 20-19
- Super Bowl 26 – The Washington Redskins (0-1) beat the Buffalo Bills (0-1). Final Score: 37-24
- Super Bowl 27 – The Dallas Cowboys (2-0) beat the Buffalo Bills (0-1). Final Score: 52-17
- Super Bowl 28 – The Dallas Cowboys (5-0) beat the Buffalo Bills (4-0). Final Score: 30-13
- Super Bowl 29 – The San Francisco 49ers (0-1) beat the San Diego Chargers (2-0). Final Score: 49-26
- Super Bowl 30 – The Dallas Cowboys (2-0) beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1). Final Score: 27-17
- Super Bowl 31 – The Green Bay Packers (5-0) beat the New England Patriots (1-0). Final Score: 35-21
- Super Bowl 32 – The Denver Broncos (1-0) beat the Green Bay Packers (5-0). Final Score: 31-24
- Super Bowl 33 – The Denver Broncos (1-0) beat the Atlanta Falcons (9-0). Final Score: 34-19
- Super Bowl 34 – The St. Louis Rams (0-1) beat the Tennessee Titans (4-0). Final Score: 23-16
- Super Bowl 35 – The Baltimore Ravens (7-0) beat the New York Giants (5-0). Final Score: 34-7
- Super Bowl 36 – The New England Patriots (6-0) beat the St. Louis Rams (6-0). Final Score: 20-17
- Super Bowl 37 – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) beat the Oakland Raiders (2-0). Final Score: 48-21
- Super Bowl 38 – The New England Patriots (12-0) beat the Carolina Panthers (3-0). Final Score: 32-29
- Super Bowl 39 – The New England Patriots (2-0) beat the Philadelphia Eagles (0-2). Final Score: 24-21
- Super Bowl 40 – The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0) beat the Seattle Seahawks (0-1). Final Score: 21-10
- Super Bowl 41 – The Indianapolis Colts (1-0) beat the Chicago Bears (0-1). Final Score: 29-17
- Super Bowl 42 – The New York Giants (0-1) beat the New England Patriots (16-0). Final Score: 17-14
- Super Bowl 43 – The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) beat the Arizona Cardinals (1-0). Final Score: 27-23
- Super Bowl 44 – The New Orleans Saints (0-3) beat the Indianapolis Colts (0-2). Final Score: 31-17
- Super Bowl 45 – The Green Bay Packers (2-0) beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0). Final Score: 31-25
- Super Bowl 46 – The New York Giants (2-0) beat the New England Patriots (8-0). Final Score: 21-17
- Super Bowl 47 – The Baltimore Ravens (0-1) beat the San Francisco 49ers (1-0). Final Score: 34-31
- Super Bowl 48 – The Seattle Seahawks (1-0) beat the Denver Broncos (2-0). Final Score: 43-8
- Super Bowl 49 – The New England Patriots (0-1) beat the Seattle Seahawks (6-0). Final Score: 28-24
- Super Bowl 50 – The Denver Broncos (2-0) beat the Carolina Panthers (1-0). Final Score: 24-10
- Super Bowl 51 – The New England Patriots (7-0) beat the Atlanta Falcons (4-0). Final Score: 34-28
- Super Bowl 52 – The Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) beat the New England Patriots (3-0). Final Score: 41-33
- Super Bowl 53 – The New England Patriots (2-0) beat the Los Angeles Rams (2-0). Final Score: 13-3
- Super Bowl 54 – The Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) beat the San Francisco 49ers (2-0). Final Score 31-20
Super Bowl Losers Last Week of the Regular Season – (39-15) – 72%
Super Bowl Participants Last Week of the Regular Season – (81-27) – 75%
Better streak coming into the Super Bowl (25-23-6) – 52%
I know it’s a lot of information! If you’re wanting to look into all of these seasons and numbers there are some of what I consider to be really interesting moments throughout the history of both simulation leagues and the NFL represented above. Some unique accomplishments include the Orange County Otters of season 19 who are the only team with an 0-3 finish to the season in the ISFL to ever win the Ultimus. The same feat was accomplished only once in the DSFL by the season 6 San Antonio Marshals. In the NFL, this has also only happened a single time with the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl 44 who went 13-0 to start the year, 0-3 to finish it out, and then won the super bowl. An onside kick to start off the second half of that game was indicative of just how much of a roller coaster that season was in New Orleans. On the other side of things, something I found fascinating was that the longest winning streak heading into the playoffs in each league resulted in a championship loss. The season 7 Orange County Otters went off to end the season on a nine game winning streak, only to lose in the Ultimus. Season 20 saw the Myrtle Beach end the season on a nine game winning streak of their own that also ended in a loss in the Ultimini. And who could forget Super Bowl 42? The only 16-0 regular season ended for the New England Patriots with a helmet catch and a miracle win by the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. So while we all want to end the season hot, watch out for a lengthy winning streak – it most definitely puts a target on your back!
Now, let’s investigate those initial hypotheses and see if I was right!
Hypothesis #1) End of the year streaks will matter the most in the DSFL due to the amount of change that a team can go through top to bottom over the course of the season. A team is more likely to be able to separate from the pack if they have a great draft class and great strategies.
This hypothesis is a bit of a mixed bag as far as the results are concerned. It seems that, for the winners of the Ultimini, end of the season streaks are a big deal. 71% of Ultimini winners won the last game of the season compared to only 52% of Ultimus winners. I attribute this to, as I presupposed in my hypothesis, the ability for the best teams to grow and emerge over the course of a season when you hit with multiple max earning picks as well as solid strategies emerging as teams mesh together throughout the course of the year. However, as much as this seemed like a win when looking at the winners, I have to remember that Ultimini losers are conference champions, and only 33% of them won the final game of the regular season, bringing the participant win percentage down to 52% - lower than both the Ultimus and the Super Bowl participants’ winning percentages. Once again, though, the team coming into the Ultimini with a better winning streak to end the year wins 67% of the time, whereas in the ISFL and the NFL it was a coinflip between which team would win.
I’m not completely sure what to make of this; does one time separate from the pack more often in the DSFL or is this simply a case of me wanting to see that happening because it would prove my own hypothesis? Since there seems to be some weight to my hypothesis but certainly some lingering doubt as well, I’m going to say on the scale of real dumb to genius, this hypothesis makes me look like an average 7th grade student. Trying my best, but too distracted by hormones to get anything completely right.
That brings us to hypothesis #2) End of the year streaks will matter significantly less in the ISFL since teams do not change as significantly over the course of the year based on TPE earnings but tend to be about as talented as they were at the start of the year.
I find this to be one of my better assertions from before this analysis. In the ISFL, teams that are good begin and end the season that way as there is not a significant enough percentage of TPE earning to greatly sway who has the best and worst records. Short of a blockbuster trade, the best generally stay that way and the worst do not greatly improve. Because of this, it is not surprising to me in the slightest that all of the win percentages for these teams hover around 60% for the final week of the regular season. A huge number of these last week losses actually came at the hands of the team they went against in the Ultimus, so I do believe that the Ultimus winners’ win percentage being lower was the result of unlucky matchups for the sake of this statistical analysis. The biggest indicator that was in favor of this hypothesis was the results of the Ultimus in relation to end of the year winning streaks. While in the DSFL the better streak won 2/3s of the matchups, in the ISFL, not even half of the champions were those who possessed the better end of the season winning streak, indicating that these streaks are far less predictive in the ISFL than in the DSFL.
This is certainly by no means a home run of a hypothesis, primarily because the Ultimini results were not nearly as inflated as I expected them to be, but was a solid guess nonetheless. Therefore, on the real dumb to genius scale, I award myself the status of member (but not on the cabinet) of the nerdy frat on campus, giving solid general analysis but constantly overestimating and disappointing myself with my own lack of social prowess.
On we go to hypothesis #3) NFL winners may have a lot of 0-1 finishes as elite teams rest their best players before the playoffs if they have nothing to play for.
I thought this was certain to be a home run of a hypothesis, but the more I thought about it, the more I wondered how many of these Super Bowl competitors had a week one bye all locked up before week 17. It’s honestly not that common to have such a grip on the league that you don’t need to play your starters week 17, and even if you bench those starters so many of these teams are deep enough that they still can compete – especially if they’re lucky and draw the Browns week 17…All that to say, this turned out to be a rotten hypothesis. Super Bowl participants won week 17 a whopping 75% of the time! That’s a 20% higher winning percentage than the Ultimini and Ultimus participants combined, which is absolutely backwards from how I thought this would turn out.
All in all, I think on this hypothesis I underplayed the role of momentum in live football, as so many teams who did not have those extra weeks of rest kept the ball rolling all the way to the super bowl. For this prediction I give myself the grade on the standard scale of real dumb to genius of a chimpanzee just beginning to learn sign language, aware for the first time that there is communication outside of grunts and screeches, but almost entirely unaware of how to interpret the outside world.
The final hypothesis (#4) stated that streaks of 0-2 or more will be rare in any of the championship games as the best teams tend to peak towards the end of the year.
This was likely my safest hypothesis, and it came through for me big time. Out of 196 participating teams in the lists above, only 17 of them ended the season 0-2 or worse, a miniscule 8.7% meaning that less than one of every 10 teams to make a championship game came into the playoffs on a true losing streak, rather than just a final week loss that may have come due to lack of concentration or resting starting players in the case of the NFL. This is by no means groundbreaking; it is not likely that many of these teams had significant losing streaks at any point in their seasons, but the best of the best tend to rise at the end of the year and this statistic helped to show just how atypical it is for a team that is not playing its best ball at the end of the regular season to suddenly right the ship and make a deep playoff run.
If your team is looking to make a splash in the history books this year, make sure that you don’t take those last weeks for granted. Whether it be home field advantage or momentum that makes the bigger difference, historically speaking you’re in for a serious uphill battle if you come in on a cold stretch.
While this prediction certainly panned out, it was also definitely a low risk hypothesis, so on the official real dumb to genius scale, I’ll give myself a grade of a killer home run hit…in tee ball
All in all, I am happy with the results of this long overdue dive into how the end of the season reflects upon the conference and league champions in the history of these three leagues. A few major takeaways for me are as follows:
1) In the DSFL, there is a far greater correlation between end of the season success and bringing home the banner than in the ISFL. This is likely due to the greater relative impact that TPE earning can have on the overall team performance in the course of a single season. If a team has a killer draft class with several max earners, they can separate from the pack towards the end of the season and, more often than not, this is the story of the champion each season.
2) In the ISFL, you’re going to have to find more creative ways to set your team apart than simply earning TPE. TPE earning still certainly matters, but in a league where the best players have already maxed out their most important stats, team strategy and scouting is going to be more important and you just might want to save a few tricks for the playoffs – it truly appears to be anybody’s game once you get there.
3) The NFL’s human element cannot be copied by our simulation and I don’t think that is a bad thing. If we were to add in a significant advantage to momentum or team morale we would see a lot of unbeatable teams or teams that cannot possibly win. The smaller size of our leagues also contributes to this, as the talent is not so widely dispersed that you end up with teams that cannot compete for multiple years. The rarity of a 49ers team that goes from worst to first in the NFC is still uncommon in our league, but not so impossible as to make a rebuild seem so daunting of a task here.
It doesn’t feel right to give myself my overall grade, so I’ll leave that up to the community. Comment below, keeping in mind that this is of course on a scale of real dumb to genius…
(4,087 words...ready to be graded)
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