Since the end of season 23, I’ve been trying to give some much love to an area of the league we all adore, Fantasy Football. Over that time, I’ve realised a few articles into some the of the data that can be found trolling through the spreadsheet and group pages since its something I had not seen around the media articles almost ever since joining the league. A lack of a true experience and ability to predict the following season, I may not be able to do rankings for fantasy, but I can use my strengths to see if there is anything we would possibly want to change, how it might look and in general, have some fun info out there because why not?
Two of the articles I realised I wanted to go back on now that season 24 is over with, in order to compare and compile a season by season analysis and database. The first of these, this current article you are reading and can tell what its about by the title, was the first article I did on this pseudo series of media found here. Within the real life, most people here have probably done some sort of draft, whether it be a NFL fantasy football draft with friends or doing a NBA 2k fantasy draft, it’s a common thing I would assume amongst the type of users within our sim league. I would has it a guess that in those, you probably had a roughly desired area of where you want to pick, start, middle or end. Serpentine drafts, what our sim fantasy football is, mean that the advantage of picking first should theoretically be removed since they then pick last in every other round. Again, in theory, it should mean every pick position should end up being equal, or is a mirror to one other position, that is, pick position 1 and 6, 2 and 5 ad finally 3 and 4, become mirrors in the pattern between their picks. So, what does the actual data show when experimenting to see how it holds true? Well keep reading and see the table below that has the position of where every player finished in fantasy, keeping in mind that the totals therefore work like a golf score, the lowest total is the best.
Now, if every pick was to be theoretically even, it would achieve a total score of 119. Also a reminder that the lower the score, the better the pick position went. What we see in practice however, is some clear and large variance from the expected results. Whilst fourth pick is only slightly above average, both sixth pick and third pick are 8 points away, one above and one below the expected result, a very fair and small distance that is balanced out on either side. Fifth pick is only slightly more below, 10 points. In contrast to this small gaps, pick one is 15 points below the average whilst the biggest distance belongs to pick two,21 points below the average, 13 points worse than the second worse pick position, giving it a very clear last place.
Another way to break down this data into more understandable and quantifiable way is looking at how many times each pick position achieved a certain result. This makes it easier to understand how these larger data points above may have been causes. Doing this allows us to see if one pick position was clearly more successful or maybe just more consistent across each group. With groups being random chance, it’s hard to ascertain the reason behind the differences in pick position as the user behind it and amongst the group play a large role in the outcome. As this was also done for last season’s fantasy draft, this will allow us to see if there is any patterns that can be seen.
If the distribution of results was equal, each pick position would have 5.66*. Looking across the table, we can see what whilst pick six was the most consistent, it yielded little first place finishes. The largest discrepancies amongst a pick position is found in fourth pick. With only 1 third place finish but 10 fourth place finishes, there is a large difference in terms of results found. Also, noteworthy, was that there were two other variables that reached double digits, second pick coming sixth and third pick pick three. Breaking this down into TPE eligible positions, however, will give a clearer understanding to if any pick position performs much better or worse than the others. This means considering how many top 3 finishes each position got. If even, each position should have 17 top 3 finishes and 51 TPE gained. At the end of the day, this is what really matters when it comes to fairness as we are all are looking for the TPE at the end of it. If there is large imbalances, send a prayer to yourself and believe in miracles to get that juicy, juicy TPE.
This for the most part just further reinforces what the previous tables and extrapolations of data show, that first pick performed much better than any other and second pick was the worst pick to be dealt with. However, the latter point is much lease obvious here. In raw data across all groups It scored 13 points more than the next lowest, being sixth pick. It also had 5 less top 3, or TPE placing, finishes though when looking at TPE earned, it was only 1 TPE off sixth pick. When TPE is what everyone wants, this alludes to no one pick being much worse than any other at earning TPE, that is it is a complete pit of despair to win TPE. Whilst these pick earnt less, they still at least kept pace with one other pick.
So whilst that pretty comprehensively go overs the same data a number of different ways, it ultimately yields data that on its own can’t provide any insight into the strength or weakness of a certain pick position. As a result, since this is a continuation of doing it last season, comparing those two sets of data points will start to give a clearer idea of if a certain pick position is better or worse and if you have a good enough reason to blame your fourth place finish on the hand you were dealt rather than your poor drafting skill.
This compiles all the information over the three different statistical measures. Bright green means it was the best in that season/category combination the paler green means second whilst the solid red represents last and the pale red second last, leaving the white cells as the data in the middle.
What becomes exceptionally clear is that third pick has been the best and most consistent over the two season and the pick it seems you would want to be. It won all three categories, (i.e. first in total raw data, top 3 placements and TPE earned), was the only position to have no red cells and only had one white cell. Third pick won every S23 category and did extremely solid in S24, leading itself to be a class above any other pick position.
In terms of ranking the other picks, I did it based off of Total TPE earned as that’s what we all really want at the end of the day. First pick came second despite being last in every S23 category, however its S24 season saw it able to climb considerably up for the bottom of the board. Third place and the only other pick to get over 100 TPE, fifth position had a good S24 and a quite average S23, doing the opposite of what first pick did. After these three there is another step down to the bottom three picks. Second pick beats out fourth pick by 1 TPE, it lost every S24 category but its above average S23 season really does let it scrap into fourth place. Fourth pick also shows up with a lot of red, being second last in each category’s total score. It is pretty surprising that it only is 1 TPE behind with the way it comes across in the table. Last place and what would be surprising giving it only has two second last places is pick position six. Going against it, it is the only position to have no green cells and was second last in S24 for TPE and only just beating out the bottom two places in S23. Whilst for the most part it looks to be on average, it usually took on the moniker of being regulated to fourth place, some by slim margins, resulting in total of it being last place when it comes to the stat we care most about.
With two seasons of this now done, the picture of what fantasy pick position entails becomes clearer. Of course, this has to be done for probably another season or two to really see a trend emerge to account for all the randomness that goes into fantasy football. Although then these articles really don’t lead to any conclusion or call for change, I still will continue to do these because fantasy is such a beloved part of this league and deserves some more media love. The bot by Wonderful_Art and the changes being looked at by fantasy heads Billybolo and Bayley are keeping everyone interested and glued to their teams and groups and I hope is that by media like this will make people intrigued to look into their own ideas for media about the data that goes into fantasy, it is a treasure trove that goes untouched.
Shortly, there will be an article on OL being added and a much more complete picture of what that can look like using the S24 fantasy statistics.
Two of the articles I realised I wanted to go back on now that season 24 is over with, in order to compare and compile a season by season analysis and database. The first of these, this current article you are reading and can tell what its about by the title, was the first article I did on this pseudo series of media found here. Within the real life, most people here have probably done some sort of draft, whether it be a NFL fantasy football draft with friends or doing a NBA 2k fantasy draft, it’s a common thing I would assume amongst the type of users within our sim league. I would has it a guess that in those, you probably had a roughly desired area of where you want to pick, start, middle or end. Serpentine drafts, what our sim fantasy football is, mean that the advantage of picking first should theoretically be removed since they then pick last in every other round. Again, in theory, it should mean every pick position should end up being equal, or is a mirror to one other position, that is, pick position 1 and 6, 2 and 5 ad finally 3 and 4, become mirrors in the pattern between their picks. So, what does the actual data show when experimenting to see how it holds true? Well keep reading and see the table below that has the position of where every player finished in fantasy, keeping in mind that the totals therefore work like a golf score, the lowest total is the best.
Now, if every pick was to be theoretically even, it would achieve a total score of 119. Also a reminder that the lower the score, the better the pick position went. What we see in practice however, is some clear and large variance from the expected results. Whilst fourth pick is only slightly above average, both sixth pick and third pick are 8 points away, one above and one below the expected result, a very fair and small distance that is balanced out on either side. Fifth pick is only slightly more below, 10 points. In contrast to this small gaps, pick one is 15 points below the average whilst the biggest distance belongs to pick two,21 points below the average, 13 points worse than the second worse pick position, giving it a very clear last place.
Another way to break down this data into more understandable and quantifiable way is looking at how many times each pick position achieved a certain result. This makes it easier to understand how these larger data points above may have been causes. Doing this allows us to see if one pick position was clearly more successful or maybe just more consistent across each group. With groups being random chance, it’s hard to ascertain the reason behind the differences in pick position as the user behind it and amongst the group play a large role in the outcome. As this was also done for last season’s fantasy draft, this will allow us to see if there is any patterns that can be seen.
If the distribution of results was equal, each pick position would have 5.66*. Looking across the table, we can see what whilst pick six was the most consistent, it yielded little first place finishes. The largest discrepancies amongst a pick position is found in fourth pick. With only 1 third place finish but 10 fourth place finishes, there is a large difference in terms of results found. Also, noteworthy, was that there were two other variables that reached double digits, second pick coming sixth and third pick pick three. Breaking this down into TPE eligible positions, however, will give a clearer understanding to if any pick position performs much better or worse than the others. This means considering how many top 3 finishes each position got. If even, each position should have 17 top 3 finishes and 51 TPE gained. At the end of the day, this is what really matters when it comes to fairness as we are all are looking for the TPE at the end of it. If there is large imbalances, send a prayer to yourself and believe in miracles to get that juicy, juicy TPE.
This for the most part just further reinforces what the previous tables and extrapolations of data show, that first pick performed much better than any other and second pick was the worst pick to be dealt with. However, the latter point is much lease obvious here. In raw data across all groups It scored 13 points more than the next lowest, being sixth pick. It also had 5 less top 3, or TPE placing, finishes though when looking at TPE earned, it was only 1 TPE off sixth pick. When TPE is what everyone wants, this alludes to no one pick being much worse than any other at earning TPE, that is it is a complete pit of despair to win TPE. Whilst these pick earnt less, they still at least kept pace with one other pick.
So whilst that pretty comprehensively go overs the same data a number of different ways, it ultimately yields data that on its own can’t provide any insight into the strength or weakness of a certain pick position. As a result, since this is a continuation of doing it last season, comparing those two sets of data points will start to give a clearer idea of if a certain pick position is better or worse and if you have a good enough reason to blame your fourth place finish on the hand you were dealt rather than your poor drafting skill.
This compiles all the information over the three different statistical measures. Bright green means it was the best in that season/category combination the paler green means second whilst the solid red represents last and the pale red second last, leaving the white cells as the data in the middle.
What becomes exceptionally clear is that third pick has been the best and most consistent over the two season and the pick it seems you would want to be. It won all three categories, (i.e. first in total raw data, top 3 placements and TPE earned), was the only position to have no red cells and only had one white cell. Third pick won every S23 category and did extremely solid in S24, leading itself to be a class above any other pick position.
In terms of ranking the other picks, I did it based off of Total TPE earned as that’s what we all really want at the end of the day. First pick came second despite being last in every S23 category, however its S24 season saw it able to climb considerably up for the bottom of the board. Third place and the only other pick to get over 100 TPE, fifth position had a good S24 and a quite average S23, doing the opposite of what first pick did. After these three there is another step down to the bottom three picks. Second pick beats out fourth pick by 1 TPE, it lost every S24 category but its above average S23 season really does let it scrap into fourth place. Fourth pick also shows up with a lot of red, being second last in each category’s total score. It is pretty surprising that it only is 1 TPE behind with the way it comes across in the table. Last place and what would be surprising giving it only has two second last places is pick position six. Going against it, it is the only position to have no green cells and was second last in S24 for TPE and only just beating out the bottom two places in S23. Whilst for the most part it looks to be on average, it usually took on the moniker of being regulated to fourth place, some by slim margins, resulting in total of it being last place when it comes to the stat we care most about.
With two seasons of this now done, the picture of what fantasy pick position entails becomes clearer. Of course, this has to be done for probably another season or two to really see a trend emerge to account for all the randomness that goes into fantasy football. Although then these articles really don’t lead to any conclusion or call for change, I still will continue to do these because fantasy is such a beloved part of this league and deserves some more media love. The bot by Wonderful_Art and the changes being looked at by fantasy heads Billybolo and Bayley are keeping everyone interested and glued to their teams and groups and I hope is that by media like this will make people intrigued to look into their own ideas for media about the data that goes into fantasy, it is a treasure trove that goes untouched.
Shortly, there will be an article on OL being added and a much more complete picture of what that can look like using the S24 fantasy statistics.
Code:
1643 words + tables