Hello stonks enthusiasts! Due to a pretty busy work week I didn't have time to put out sim-weekly editions of my Stock Watch articles, so I think I'll be moving to a weekly format going forward to cover some of the main trends from the previous week and the outlook for the next week. Given the 5-10% cuts that the casino takes out of stocks when you sell them back (5% when sold via auction, 10% when sold back to the casino), I'm not sure that week-to-week trading is a great option given the magnitude of gains we've seen in stock prices have capped out at just under 5% for maximally-owned stocks, so this longer-term view may be the best approach anyway, especially as we have a better understanding of teams' quality this far into the season.
With this slower pace of article output, I'm going to try adding in a few new features besides just the team-by-team outlook. I'd really like to make these articles as informative and helpful as possible, so if you have any other ideas of things I could add to the series, please let me know either in a comment or via DM on Discord!
The above plot shows share prices for each stock from the beginning of the preseason until now. I think this gives a good overview of how the market has progressed, both at an aggregate level and for any one particular stock (hopefully I've done an adequate job labeling each team's stock trend well enough for you to make them out).
The immediate thing that jumps out, and what has similarly been the biggest piece of the market thus far in the season, is Baltimore's hugely inflated price at the start of the season and its subsequent plummet. This decline has created a lot of room in the market for other shares to rise, since at its heart this stock market is fundamentally a zero-sum game because of its dependence on underlying Elo ratings.
While none of the the rising shares have seen an ascent quite as steep as Baltimore's, as it seems that the algorithm determining stock prices allows for prices to fall more quickly than rise, we see many stocks like Colorado, Sarasota, New Orleans, and Arizona with steady rises throughout the season. All of these stocks are ones which have seen large purchases made since the stock price algorithm changed during the offseason, and all besides Sarasota have had at least 250 shares owned at some point during the season.
The final thing I'll point out are the two expansion teams, Berlin and New York, which both started at relatively high prices and appeared to be plummeting almost as hard as Baltimore to start the season. Berlin's stock has since made a turnaround after 2 wins this past week and an uptick in stock ownership (finally justifying my STRONG BUY call that I had stubbornly held onto). New York's hasn't yet stopped its downward slide, but it's currently reaching the point at which Berlin stock rallied, and New York has a better record thus far into the season than their expansion counterparts. An interesting developing trend to keep your eye on, for sure.
After very few successful auctions were held for the first few weeks of the new season (mainly just a sell-off of 5 additional NOLA shares from the Casino's 50 held in reserve), this week saw a flurry of auction activity. Let's dive through all the auctions that have been held since my own auction of 5 Yeti shares for $1.4M/share, which I talked about in my last article:
1. 5 shares of COL, Monday - Wednesday - Final sale price: $6.9M
This was a strikingly similar auction to the one I held of Yeti shares over the prior weekend. Although it started with a much lower initial asking price of $4.7M, the final winning bid was $6.9M (nice), just $100,000 less than the winning bid of my auction, and both were won by the same user. From these two auctions combined we can see that this was a pretty fair valuation of Colorado stock early in the week (at least in my and Art's eyes), based on the high ownership and upwards trend at the time.
2. 10 shares of ARI, Tuesday - Wednesday - Final sale price: Unsold (starting bid: $8.5M)
On Tuesday, LB3737, who had already unsuccesfully attempted to sell all 20 of his Outlaws shares in auction previously, tried again to sell just half of them. Despite starting the bidding just a hair over market price, he received no bites, which I find quite interesting as the price of 10 Outlaws shares has already risen a tad above that asking price. From this we can read into this failure to sell that people were probably not very excited about the Outlaws' prospects and/or were hesitant to drop that much money at once on a lump of shares.
3. 5 shares of NOLA, Monday - Wednesday - Final sale price: $6.3M
A third capped team's shares were put up for auction on Monday with Panda selling 5 of his shares of the Second Line, one of the breakout surprise teams of the early season and I believe the biggest riser of the season thus far. These shares ended up selling for $1.26M/share, well above the going rate of $800k/share at the time. While people were hesitant to buy into the Outlaws, it appears that both the Yeti and Second Line were getting people excited and willing to bet far above market rate for shares that were available only through auction. I think these examples are helpful to understand when is a good time to put shares up for auction and what sorts of conditions make people willing to buy them.
4. 2 batches of 5 shares of COL (Batch1, Batch 2), Wednesday - Thursday - Final sale price: Unsold (starting bid: $6M)
On the same day as the previous batch of Colorado shares closed at $6.9 million for 5 shares, Swanty posted two auctions for chunks of 5 shares (probably learning from LB's inability to sell larger batches) with starting prices of $6M, well below the final sale price of the previous one. However, none of these batches were able to garner even a single bid. While I have no proof of this, my suspicion is that people started getting wary of Colorado stock after a narrow loss at then-winless Berlin dropped them to a .500 record and a clear 4th place in their conference. While this offer was a bargain relative to previous auctions, it was still more expensive than their rate as listed in the Stock Market spreadsheet, and it's possible that turned people away. While it's a small sample size, the dynamics of these auctions of shares that are at the ownership cap are really important to look into when other users are going to be willing to buy shares from you.
5. 5 shares of CHI, Thursday - Friday - Final sale price: $4.9M
This one is interesting as it was an auction of shares that you can buy at the stock market itself rather than through auction. I suspect that the goal for AdamS was to try to get them to sell roughly at market rate and get only the 5% cut taken out of them rather than the full 10% of selling to the casino. Or maybe he just posted it for shits and giggles, idk. In any case, it ended up selling at the opening bid price of $4.9M for five shares, or $980k/share. Given that Chicago stock ownership has held fairly steady without many people interested in buying it, it's interesting to see this kind of auction work to try and find a fair market price for the asset. However, it worked out poorly for AdamS as with the fee taken out he ended up getting $931k/share in auction, as opposed to the $990k/share he would have gotten selling them straight back to the Casino.
6. 5 shares of COL, Thursday - Friday - Final sale price: $4.7M
And here we complete the trajectory of Colorado stocks. After Swanty received no bites at a $6M price, AdamS again started an auction at below the price listed in the spreadsheet. However, later that same day Swanty sold all of his shares of Colorado that weren't tied up in his two auction batches and PMoney sold an additional 35 Colorado shares, freeing up a ton to be bought in the market. No one jumped at the opportunity to buy those, so once again Zayn was able to swoop in and get these at the opening bid price well below market rate. I think the lesson is not to start auctions of shares that are available in the Casino with a bid price below what you would otherwise be getting for selling them.
Alright, after looking at all the auctions and the overall market trends for the season so far, I think that gives us a good basis to go over each team's stock outlook! Because I haven't written one of these in a while, all share and price movements will reflect the change since my previous article last weekend (before Week 5).
Nothing has fundamentally changed with Baltimore, although sometime next week they will finally be surpassed by a different stock as the most expensive share price in the ISFL. Given that they're a well below average team this season, I think they'll keep falling quite a ways below just "not the most expensive".
As the auctions documented above, which is reinforced by a massive selloff of Yeti stock, the market has seemed to lose faith in the Yeti. Without being an extremely high ownership stock, I don't know that there is a ton of reason why the Yeti should continue to rise, although I think they're still a fairly solid team and better than their 3-4 record. Unless you need the cash soon, I think it would be safe to hold onto these for a bit and see how their stock trends now that it's not at 250 shares owned.
Until writing this article I hadn't even realized that Yellowknife's 3 wins these week were all away games against other top teams in their conference. While I can't imagine that they were favored to win all (or perhaps even any) of these games, they're clearly a solid enough team to be in contention with these other strong teams, and having gotten some tough away games out of the way they're set up well to finish the season strong, having only played 2 of their 8 home games so far this season. This is the only stock of a team with this many wins to be priced under $1M at this point, due in part to its low ownership I'm sure, but it could be an appealing play for that same reason.
Nothing has really changed with Chicago stock since I wrote my last article either. Ownership and price are both stable. It's an expensive stock, so I don't really advise buying it, but they're a good team so I don't expect the price to fall much if at all either. If you need the money, this is a fine sell, as I don't think you'll be missing out on many future gains.
I thought Philadelphia stock might have been close to its minimum price, but it continues to fall and fall. No reason to think that trend will change anytime soon. This will definitely be an appealing buy a little bit later in the season, since the Liberty have been much better than I expected this season and are set up to successfully rebuild in the future, but I can't advise that yet when there are more appealing short- to mid-term buys.
Orange County had a bit of a stumble to start the week, losing its first two games of the season including a home loss to New York where they were never able to get much going on offense. However, they finished it out with a strong win against Colorado that never really seemed in doubt. While there are definitely other good teams in their conference, I think Orange County remains a clear contender and would not hesitate to buy their stock if you're looking for a more expensive but secure play.
New Orleans, the most-owned stock in the league, continues to see a strong climb with no signs of slowing down as they currently hold the top spot in the conference. Considering a recent auction closing at nearly $1.3M/share, I think the market recognizes that the share price should continue to rise, and I wouldn't expect any Colorado-style selloff in the near future. So if more opportunities to buy at that price open up, I'd consider them strongly.
Austin is certainly one of the early surprises of the season for me as they recorded a fantastic 3-0 record this past week. However, looking at their schedule holistically, they're 5-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. With only 3 more home games remaining all season (against 3 strong teams in OCO, BER, and NOLA), I think there's a distinct possibility that Austin doesn't fare quite as well down the back stretch of the season. Normally I'd want to advise to SELL because the schedule is going to get much harder, but given that the stock is still so cheap I can't really recommend that. Instead, I think this stock is a long-term HOLD as the team promises to be quite strong after they are able to move on next season from 2015 Peyton Manning Easton Cole, so you could potentially see a good increase in stock price then.
The two-time reigning Ultimus champs are having quite a struggle early on in this season, the main culprit of which has to be offensive underperformance. The Sabercats have scored the fewest points in the league behind the likes of Philadelphia, New York, and Baltimore, and in such a competitive division I think it's difficult to see a path where the Sabercats end up as one of the top teams in the conference. Their upcoming schedule is brutal, with the only home games between now and week 15 against the Sailfish and Otters. With poor ownership and no apparent eagerness from anyone in buying up more of their stock, I'd advise selling San Jose stock now and perhaps coming back to buy some later in the season after a potential slide in price if the team continues to struggle.
The Outlaws are the other team besides the Yeti who started the week with all 250 shares owned and since then have seen a massive selloff. Their stock has continued to rise quite nicely, and although their record thus far doesn't quite reflect it I think this is a strong team that has lots of room to gain for the rest of the season. While the price might seem a little high now for a team with this record, I think the record will improve to match the share price rather than the other way around. I recommend holding onto Arizona stock and seeing if anyone comes in and buys up more shares now that they've become available.
We've seen in the past that huge moves in stock ownership can cause a team's stock to soar, even if the team itself doesn't back up that price on the field - see the Outlaws, who hold a 2-5 record this far into the season yet have seen their share price increase by 30% since the preseason due to max ownership. If any Hahalua shares come up for auction I wouldn't hesitate to bid on them at well above their $700k market price, although I would be wary that there's only a handful of shareholders who could tank the stock in a selloff.
While the Sarasota don't have 100% of shares owned in the market, they've still clearly demonstrated they're a good team, and have a reasonable share price and strong ownership for a team of their quality compared to the likes of Yellowknife (low ownership) or Orange County (low ownership and more expensive shares). I still recommend buying the Sailfish, their hot streak to start the season wasn't entirely a fluke and they should continue to steadily rise this season.
The Fire Salamanders finally hit their price bottom this week and have turned a corner into gaining share price, which is great to see. The team has a bad record, but have suffered from awful sim luck early this season and have strong potential to turn it around and end up competing for a playoff spot. Even if they don't quite make it this season, their share price is sure to rise now that they've reached 250 shares owned, and they should be solid contenders in future seasons as one of the younger teams in the league. Nothing has changed for me about Berlin, except for the fact that you'll need some of their shares to become available via auction in order to buy into this team.
New York's share price has continued to steadily drop, but as I pointed out in the Market History section they're very close now to the point at which Berlin stocks bottomed out. While I'm not as confident in this team being good as I am in Berlin's strength, I do think they're a solid team that has the potential to go on a hot streak and see some good returns in the future. Their first game this next week is an away game at Sarasota, so it might be a solid plan to wait for them to lose that game before buying in, as their ownership is nowhere close to the 250 cap and I don't think there's a huge risk of shares getting bought out before you have a chance to invest.
STRONG BUY
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BUY
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HOLD
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SELL
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STRONG SELL
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With this slower pace of article output, I'm going to try adding in a few new features besides just the team-by-team outlook. I'd really like to make these articles as informative and helpful as possible, so if you have any other ideas of things I could add to the series, please let me know either in a comment or via DM on Discord!
Market History
The above plot shows share prices for each stock from the beginning of the preseason until now. I think this gives a good overview of how the market has progressed, both at an aggregate level and for any one particular stock (hopefully I've done an adequate job labeling each team's stock trend well enough for you to make them out).
The immediate thing that jumps out, and what has similarly been the biggest piece of the market thus far in the season, is Baltimore's hugely inflated price at the start of the season and its subsequent plummet. This decline has created a lot of room in the market for other shares to rise, since at its heart this stock market is fundamentally a zero-sum game because of its dependence on underlying Elo ratings.
While none of the the rising shares have seen an ascent quite as steep as Baltimore's, as it seems that the algorithm determining stock prices allows for prices to fall more quickly than rise, we see many stocks like Colorado, Sarasota, New Orleans, and Arizona with steady rises throughout the season. All of these stocks are ones which have seen large purchases made since the stock price algorithm changed during the offseason, and all besides Sarasota have had at least 250 shares owned at some point during the season.
The final thing I'll point out are the two expansion teams, Berlin and New York, which both started at relatively high prices and appeared to be plummeting almost as hard as Baltimore to start the season. Berlin's stock has since made a turnaround after 2 wins this past week and an uptick in stock ownership (finally justifying my STRONG BUY call that I had stubbornly held onto). New York's hasn't yet stopped its downward slide, but it's currently reaching the point at which Berlin stock rallied, and New York has a better record thus far into the season than their expansion counterparts. An interesting developing trend to keep your eye on, for sure.
Auction Watch
After very few successful auctions were held for the first few weeks of the new season (mainly just a sell-off of 5 additional NOLA shares from the Casino's 50 held in reserve), this week saw a flurry of auction activity. Let's dive through all the auctions that have been held since my own auction of 5 Yeti shares for $1.4M/share, which I talked about in my last article:
1. 5 shares of COL, Monday - Wednesday - Final sale price: $6.9M
This was a strikingly similar auction to the one I held of Yeti shares over the prior weekend. Although it started with a much lower initial asking price of $4.7M, the final winning bid was $6.9M (nice), just $100,000 less than the winning bid of my auction, and both were won by the same user. From these two auctions combined we can see that this was a pretty fair valuation of Colorado stock early in the week (at least in my and Art's eyes), based on the high ownership and upwards trend at the time.
2. 10 shares of ARI, Tuesday - Wednesday - Final sale price: Unsold (starting bid: $8.5M)
On Tuesday, LB3737, who had already unsuccesfully attempted to sell all 20 of his Outlaws shares in auction previously, tried again to sell just half of them. Despite starting the bidding just a hair over market price, he received no bites, which I find quite interesting as the price of 10 Outlaws shares has already risen a tad above that asking price. From this we can read into this failure to sell that people were probably not very excited about the Outlaws' prospects and/or were hesitant to drop that much money at once on a lump of shares.
3. 5 shares of NOLA, Monday - Wednesday - Final sale price: $6.3M
A third capped team's shares were put up for auction on Monday with Panda selling 5 of his shares of the Second Line, one of the breakout surprise teams of the early season and I believe the biggest riser of the season thus far. These shares ended up selling for $1.26M/share, well above the going rate of $800k/share at the time. While people were hesitant to buy into the Outlaws, it appears that both the Yeti and Second Line were getting people excited and willing to bet far above market rate for shares that were available only through auction. I think these examples are helpful to understand when is a good time to put shares up for auction and what sorts of conditions make people willing to buy them.
4. 2 batches of 5 shares of COL (Batch1, Batch 2), Wednesday - Thursday - Final sale price: Unsold (starting bid: $6M)
On the same day as the previous batch of Colorado shares closed at $6.9 million for 5 shares, Swanty posted two auctions for chunks of 5 shares (probably learning from LB's inability to sell larger batches) with starting prices of $6M, well below the final sale price of the previous one. However, none of these batches were able to garner even a single bid. While I have no proof of this, my suspicion is that people started getting wary of Colorado stock after a narrow loss at then-winless Berlin dropped them to a .500 record and a clear 4th place in their conference. While this offer was a bargain relative to previous auctions, it was still more expensive than their rate as listed in the Stock Market spreadsheet, and it's possible that turned people away. While it's a small sample size, the dynamics of these auctions of shares that are at the ownership cap are really important to look into when other users are going to be willing to buy shares from you.
5. 5 shares of CHI, Thursday - Friday - Final sale price: $4.9M
This one is interesting as it was an auction of shares that you can buy at the stock market itself rather than through auction. I suspect that the goal for AdamS was to try to get them to sell roughly at market rate and get only the 5% cut taken out of them rather than the full 10% of selling to the casino. Or maybe he just posted it for shits and giggles, idk. In any case, it ended up selling at the opening bid price of $4.9M for five shares, or $980k/share. Given that Chicago stock ownership has held fairly steady without many people interested in buying it, it's interesting to see this kind of auction work to try and find a fair market price for the asset. However, it worked out poorly for AdamS as with the fee taken out he ended up getting $931k/share in auction, as opposed to the $990k/share he would have gotten selling them straight back to the Casino.
6. 5 shares of COL, Thursday - Friday - Final sale price: $4.7M
And here we complete the trajectory of Colorado stocks. After Swanty received no bites at a $6M price, AdamS again started an auction at below the price listed in the spreadsheet. However, later that same day Swanty sold all of his shares of Colorado that weren't tied up in his two auction batches and PMoney sold an additional 35 Colorado shares, freeing up a ton to be bought in the market. No one jumped at the opportunity to buy those, so once again Zayn was able to swoop in and get these at the opening bid price well below market rate. I think the lesson is not to start auctions of shares that are available in the Casino with a bid price below what you would otherwise be getting for selling them.
Team-by-Team Breakdown
Alright, after looking at all the auctions and the overall market trends for the season so far, I think that gives us a good basis to go over each team's stock outlook! Because I haven't written one of these in a while, all share and price movements will reflect the change since my previous article last weekend (before Week 5).
BALTIMORE HAWKS
2-5
Current Price: $1,157,780
Price Change: -$231,132 (-15.2%)
Shares Owned: 45
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 17-27 vs. SAR, W 30-20 @ PHI, L 17-24 vs. BER
2-5
Current Price: $1,157,780
Price Change: -$231,132 (-15.2%)
Shares Owned: 45
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 17-27 vs. SAR, W 30-20 @ PHI, L 17-24 vs. BER
Nothing has fundamentally changed with Baltimore, although sometime next week they will finally be surpassed by a different stock as the most expensive share price in the ISFL. Given that they're a well below average team this season, I think they'll keep falling quite a ways below just "not the most expensive".
Advice: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
COLORADO YETI
3-4
Current Price: $1,074,030
Price Change: +$72,661 (8.1%)
Shares Owned: 105
Ownership Change: -145
On-Field Performances: W 27-16 vs. PHI, L 17-20 @ BER, L 13-23 @ OCO
3-4
Current Price: $1,074,030
Price Change: +$72,661 (8.1%)
Shares Owned: 105
Ownership Change: -145
On-Field Performances: W 27-16 vs. PHI, L 17-20 @ BER, L 13-23 @ OCO
As the auctions documented above, which is reinforced by a massive selloff of Yeti stock, the market has seemed to lose faith in the Yeti. Without being an extremely high ownership stock, I don't know that there is a ton of reason why the Yeti should continue to rise, although I think they're still a fairly solid team and better than their 3-4 record. Unless you need the cash soon, I think it would be safe to hold onto these for a bit and see how their stock trends now that it's not at 250 shares owned.
Advice: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
YELLOWKNIFE WRAITHS
6-1
Current Price: $953,442
Price Change: +$25,190 (+2.8%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 27-17 @ BER, W 23-10 @ CHI, W 26-6 @ SAR
6-1
Current Price: $953,442
Price Change: +$25,190 (+2.8%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 27-17 @ BER, W 23-10 @ CHI, W 26-6 @ SAR
Until writing this article I hadn't even realized that Yellowknife's 3 wins these week were all away games against other top teams in their conference. While I can't imagine that they were favored to win all (or perhaps even any) of these games, they're clearly a solid enough team to be in contention with these other strong teams, and having gotten some tough away games out of the way they're set up well to finish the season strong, having only played 2 of their 8 home games so far this season. This is the only stock of a team with this many wins to be priced under $1M at this point, due in part to its low ownership I'm sure, but it could be an appealing play for that same reason.
Advice: BUY (Previously: SELL)
CHICAGO BUTCHERS
5-2
Current Price: $1,145,993
Price Change: -$1,785 (-0.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 10-3 @ SJS, L 10-23 @ YKW, W 31-13 @ PHI
5-2
Current Price: $1,145,993
Price Change: -$1,785 (-0.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 10-3 @ SJS, L 10-23 @ YKW, W 31-13 @ PHI
Nothing has really changed with Chicago stock since I wrote my last article either. Ownership and price are both stable. It's an expensive stock, so I don't really advise buying it, but they're a good team so I don't expect the price to fall much if at all either. If you need the money, this is a fine sell, as I don't think you'll be missing out on many future gains.
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY
2-5
Current Price: $677,559
Price Change: -$111,663 (-13.1%)
Shares Owned: 25
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 27-16 @ COL, L 20-30 @ BAL, L 13-31 @ CHI
2-5
Current Price: $677,559
Price Change: -$111,663 (-13.1%)
Shares Owned: 25
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 27-16 @ COL, L 20-30 @ BAL, L 13-31 @ CHI
I thought Philadelphia stock might have been close to its minimum price, but it continues to fall and fall. No reason to think that trend will change anytime soon. This will definitely be an appealing buy a little bit later in the season, since the Liberty have been much better than I expected this season and are set up to successfully rebuild in the future, but I can't advise that yet when there are more appealing short- to mid-term buys.
Advice: STRONG SELL (Previously: SELL)
ORANGE COUNTY OTTERS
5-2
Current Price: $1,110,333
Price Change: -$62,247 (-5.9%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 22-34 @ NOLA, L 3-17 vs. NYS, W 23-13 vs. COL
5-2
Current Price: $1,110,333
Price Change: -$62,247 (-5.9%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 22-34 @ NOLA, L 3-17 vs. NYS, W 23-13 vs. COL
Orange County had a bit of a stumble to start the week, losing its first two games of the season including a home loss to New York where they were never able to get much going on offense. However, they finished it out with a strong win against Colorado that never really seemed in doubt. While there are definitely other good teams in their conference, I think Orange County remains a clear contender and would not hesitate to buy their stock if you're looking for a more expensive but secure play.
Advice: BUY (Unchanged)
NEW ORLEANS SECOND LINE
5-2
Current Price: $882,958
Price Change: +$108,406 (15.4%)
Shares Owned: 255
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 34-22 vs. OCO, W 31-19 vs. HON, L 12-27 @ SJS
5-2
Current Price: $882,958
Price Change: +$108,406 (15.4%)
Shares Owned: 255
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 34-22 vs. OCO, W 31-19 vs. HON, L 12-27 @ SJS
New Orleans, the most-owned stock in the league, continues to see a strong climb with no signs of slowing down as they currently hold the top spot in the conference. Considering a recent auction closing at nearly $1.3M/share, I think the market recognizes that the share price should continue to rise, and I wouldn't expect any Colorado-style selloff in the near future. So if more opportunities to buy at that price open up, I'd consider them strongly.
Advice: BUY (Previously: HOLD)
AUSTIN COPPERHEADS
5-2
Current Price: $762,021
Price Change: +$19,577 (+2.7%)
Shares Owned: 70
Ownership Change: +16
On-Field Performances: W24-7 vs. NYS, W 27-10 vs. SJS, W 29-26 vs. ARI
5-2
Current Price: $762,021
Price Change: +$19,577 (+2.7%)
Shares Owned: 70
Ownership Change: +16
On-Field Performances: W24-7 vs. NYS, W 27-10 vs. SJS, W 29-26 vs. ARI
Austin is certainly one of the early surprises of the season for me as they recorded a fantastic 3-0 record this past week. However, looking at their schedule holistically, they're 5-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. With only 3 more home games remaining all season (against 3 strong teams in OCO, BER, and NOLA), I think there's a distinct possibility that Austin doesn't fare quite as well down the back stretch of the season. Normally I'd want to advise to SELL because the schedule is going to get much harder, but given that the stock is still so cheap I can't really recommend that. Instead, I think this stock is a long-term HOLD as the team promises to be quite strong after they are able to move on next season from 2015 Peyton Manning Easton Cole, so you could potentially see a good increase in stock price then.
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
SAN JOSE SABERCATS
3-4
Current Price: $856,053
Price Change: +$11,294 (+1.4%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 3-10 vs. CHI, L 10-27 @ AUS, W 27-12 vs. NOLA
3-4
Current Price: $856,053
Price Change: +$11,294 (+1.4%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 3-10 vs. CHI, L 10-27 @ AUS, W 27-12 vs. NOLA
The two-time reigning Ultimus champs are having quite a struggle early on in this season, the main culprit of which has to be offensive underperformance. The Sabercats have scored the fewest points in the league behind the likes of Philadelphia, New York, and Baltimore, and in such a competitive division I think it's difficult to see a path where the Sabercats end up as one of the top teams in the conference. Their upcoming schedule is brutal, with the only home games between now and week 15 against the Sailfish and Otters. With poor ownership and no apparent eagerness from anyone in buying up more of their stock, I'd advise selling San Jose stock now and perhaps coming back to buy some later in the season after a potential slide in price if the team continues to struggle.
Advice: SELL (Previously: BUY)
ARIZONA OUTLAWS
2-5
Current Price: $871,845
Price Change: +$58,125 (+7.9%)
Shares Owned: 122
Ownership Change: -128
On-Field Performances: W 44-20 vs. HON, L 20-34 vs. SAR, L 26-29 @ AUS
2-5
Current Price: $871,845
Price Change: +$58,125 (+7.9%)
Shares Owned: 122
Ownership Change: -128
On-Field Performances: W 44-20 vs. HON, L 20-34 vs. SAR, L 26-29 @ AUS
The Outlaws are the other team besides the Yeti who started the week with all 250 shares owned and since then have seen a massive selloff. Their stock has continued to rise quite nicely, and although their record thus far doesn't quite reflect it I think this is a strong team that has lots of room to gain for the rest of the season. While the price might seem a little high now for a team with this record, I think the record will improve to match the share price rather than the other way around. I recommend holding onto Arizona stock and seeing if anyone comes in and buys up more shares now that they've become available.
Advice: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
HONOLULU HAHALUA
1-6
Current Price: $693,680
Price Change: -$1,057 (-0.2%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +182 (!!!)
On-Field Performances: L 20-44 @ ARI, L 19-31 @ NOLA, W 34-27 vs. NYS
1-6
Current Price: $693,680
Price Change: -$1,057 (-0.2%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +182 (!!!)
On-Field Performances: L 20-44 @ ARI, L 19-31 @ NOLA, W 34-27 vs. NYS
We've seen in the past that huge moves in stock ownership can cause a team's stock to soar, even if the team itself doesn't back up that price on the field - see the Outlaws, who hold a 2-5 record this far into the season yet have seen their share price increase by 30% since the preseason due to max ownership. If any Hahalua shares come up for auction I wouldn't hesitate to bid on them at well above their $700k market price, although I would be wary that there's only a handful of shareholders who could tank the stock in a selloff.
Advice: STRONG BUY (Previously: HOLD)
SARASOTA SAILFISH
5-2
Current Price: $1,009,560
Price Change: +$40,274 (+4.3%)
Shares Owned: 116
Ownership Change: +3
On-Field Performances: W 27-17 @ BAL, W 34-20 @ ARI, L 6-26 vs. YKW
5-2
Current Price: $1,009,560
Price Change: +$40,274 (+4.3%)
Shares Owned: 116
Ownership Change: +3
On-Field Performances: W 27-17 @ BAL, W 34-20 @ ARI, L 6-26 vs. YKW
While the Sarasota don't have 100% of shares owned in the market, they've still clearly demonstrated they're a good team, and have a reasonable share price and strong ownership for a team of their quality compared to the likes of Yellowknife (low ownership) or Orange County (low ownership and more expensive shares). I still recommend buying the Sailfish, their hot streak to start the season wasn't entirely a fluke and they should continue to steadily rise this season.
Advice: BUY (Unchanged)
BERLIN FIRE SALAMANDERS
2-5
Current Price: $829,517
Price Change: +$90,396 (+10.9%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +114
On-Field Performances: L 17-27 vs. YKW, W 20-17 vs. COL, W 24-17 @ BAL
2-5
Current Price: $829,517
Price Change: +$90,396 (+10.9%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: +114
On-Field Performances: L 17-27 vs. YKW, W 20-17 vs. COL, W 24-17 @ BAL
The Fire Salamanders finally hit their price bottom this week and have turned a corner into gaining share price, which is great to see. The team has a bad record, but have suffered from awful sim luck early this season and have strong potential to turn it around and end up competing for a playoff spot. Even if they don't quite make it this season, their share price is sure to rise now that they've reached 250 shares owned, and they should be solid contenders in future seasons as one of the younger teams in the league. Nothing has changed for me about Berlin, except for the fact that you'll need some of their shares to become available via auction in order to buy into this team.
Advice: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
NEW YORK SILVERBACK
3-4
Current Price: $800,712
Price Change: -$154,100 (-13.8%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 7-24 @ AUS, W 17-3 @ OCO, L 27-34 @ HON
3-4
Current Price: $800,712
Price Change: -$154,100 (-13.8%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 7-24 @ AUS, W 17-3 @ OCO, L 27-34 @ HON
New York's share price has continued to steadily drop, but as I pointed out in the Market History section they're very close now to the point at which Berlin stocks bottomed out. While I'm not as confident in this team being good as I am in Berlin's strength, I do think they're a solid team that has the potential to go on a hot streak and see some good returns in the future. Their first game this next week is an away game at Sarasota, so it might be a solid plan to wait for them to lose that game before buying in, as their ownership is nowhere close to the 250 cap and I don't think there's a huge risk of shares getting bought out before you have a chance to invest.
Advice: BUY (Previously: SELL)
Team-by-Team Breakdown
STRONG BUY
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BUY
(+)
(++)
(++)
HOLD
(-)
(-)
SELL
(- -)
STRONG SELL
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