As we head into the final quarter of the season, a lot rides on these four remaining games for most teams. As a member of Sarasota my focus is primarily on the NSFC and I want to take a look at each team’s schedule that has playoff hopes. Three teams are tied with a 7-5 record and it’s very likely one of them misses out on the post season. Going through each game I’ll take an educated guess at the winner and give a terrible percentage that means nothing. I have no experience with test simming here and I’m not sure what a normal expected win percent is. Guesses will be mostly based off of current record and point differential. After going through each team I’ll list the final expected standings.
Yellowknife Wraiths 9-3
Week 13 at Philadelphia (60% W)
Week 14 vs Berlin (60% W)
Week 15 at Colorado (35% W)
Week 16 vs Sarasota (55% W)
Yellowknife should have no problem locking down their playoff spot and finishing with the bye as we end the season. Their two game lead on the other teams gives them a lot of breathing room in case of an upset. The biggest Challenge will be week 15 when they’re in Colorado. The Yeti are currently 6-0 at home and thus they receive automatic wins for any home game in this article. I’m not sure how tiebreakers work, but if Yellowknife wins their first two games as expected they can do no worse than tying for first. It is possible they lose the next two games and the bye is left up to fate.
Sarasota Sailfish 7-5
Week 13 vs New Orleans (55% W)
Week 14 at Chicago (45% W)
Week 15 vs Baltimore (65% W)
Week 16 at Yellowknife (45% W)
As I went through and listed the schedules, Sarasota has arguably the toughest one. Most other teams play two current playoff teams, but the Sailfish play three, hosting New Orleans from the ASFC next game. I believe that week 14 Sarasota at Chicago will be THE single most important game for the NSFC standings. In my opinion it will be for the third and final playoff spot. Unfortunately it looks like Sarasota’s home loss to Philadelphia in week 10 is going to come back to haunt us. Yellowknife has a single loss at home and already beat the Sailfish in their arena, but it’s possible they’re far enough ahead in the final week they just coast and don’t care about a loss. Looking at this schedule compared to others pains me and I wish I remained ignorant.
Chicago Butchers 7-5
Week 13 at Colorado (35% W)
Week 14 vs Sarasota (55% W)
Week 15 vs New York (55% W)
Week 16 at Baltimore (60% W)
In their next game Chicago plays Colorado at home and shouldn’t expect much. That single game in itself doesn’t seem to be impactful to their final standings at this point. Their next two games against Sarasota and New York will make or break their playoff hopes. To reiterate what I just said above, if you can only watch one more regular season game, watch Sarasota at Chicago in week 14. Week 15 will also prove to be a challenge, but Chicago is still at home and playing a .500 team with a slightly negative differential. I expect them to win, but it has similar upset potential like the game vs Sarasota. The Butchers can end the season 1-3 just as easily as they can finish 3-1.
Colorado Yeti 7-5
Week 13 vs Chicago (65% W)
Week 14 at Baltimore (60% W)
Week 15 vs Yellowknife (65% W)
Week 16 at Philadelphia (60% W)
Colorado lol. They get by far the most pleasant schedule to finish off. Both teams that pose a threat, they get to play at home where they’re undefeated and their other two games are against the bottom of the NSFC. It’s well within the realm of possibility that they finish 4-0 and if they beat Yellowknife it’s possible they cause a tie for first in the conference. I hate this team in a friendly rival kind of way and seeing this schedule is pure suffering. Maybe they miraculously get upset twice and “only” finish 2-2. Even if that happens I think they still make it in so they should be a lock for the second team besides Yellowknife. If Sarasota gets in there’s a large chance we play Colorado at home for the playoffs, kill me.
Berlin Fire Salamanders 5-7
Week 13 vs Baltimore (65% W)
Week 14 at Yellowknife (40% W)
Week 15 vs Philadelphia (60% W)
Week 16 vs Honolulu (70% W)
I didn’t initially plan to list these guys, but they’re an interesting case. With their remaining games they have an outside shot at the third seed. Three favourable home games against bottom teams and a big test playing Yellowknife away. Finishing 3-1 is very likely, and 4-0 is not totally improbable. The only downside of their situation is they have to overtake two teams. Sarasota and Chicago taking each other out week 14 helps their case however. I think they’re going to end up surprising people and have a reasonable chance at forcing a tiebreaker for the 3rd and final playoff spot.
Estimated Final Standings
Yellowknife 12-4
Colorado 11-5
Chicago 10-6
Sarasota 9-7
Berlin 8-8
This makes me very sad to type and I hope I reverse jinx this team. Every single game matters from here on out, but some teams are more privileged than others. If the Sailfish do not make it and you’re not a member of one of the top three teams that did, please join us in solidarity and spam #FireFrolf.
Minor ASFC Prediction
This conference is very tight and an article like this would be even better for them, however I only care who ends up the last team standing from them. I’m going with the easy pick that Orange County makes it to the Ultimus. They’ll probably get the bye with their record and differential. Without doing a huge dive in schedules like this I think Arizona will sneak into the 3rd playoff spot even though they’re listed as 6th right now. Please give me a Sarasota vs Orange County Ultimus though, beating jeffie and winning an Ultimus for it is all I want in life.
Yellowknife Wraiths 9-3
Week 13 at Philadelphia (60% W)
Week 14 vs Berlin (60% W)
Week 15 at Colorado (35% W)
Week 16 vs Sarasota (55% W)
Yellowknife should have no problem locking down their playoff spot and finishing with the bye as we end the season. Their two game lead on the other teams gives them a lot of breathing room in case of an upset. The biggest Challenge will be week 15 when they’re in Colorado. The Yeti are currently 6-0 at home and thus they receive automatic wins for any home game in this article. I’m not sure how tiebreakers work, but if Yellowknife wins their first two games as expected they can do no worse than tying for first. It is possible they lose the next two games and the bye is left up to fate.
Sarasota Sailfish 7-5
Week 13 vs New Orleans (55% W)
Week 14 at Chicago (45% W)
Week 15 vs Baltimore (65% W)
Week 16 at Yellowknife (45% W)
As I went through and listed the schedules, Sarasota has arguably the toughest one. Most other teams play two current playoff teams, but the Sailfish play three, hosting New Orleans from the ASFC next game. I believe that week 14 Sarasota at Chicago will be THE single most important game for the NSFC standings. In my opinion it will be for the third and final playoff spot. Unfortunately it looks like Sarasota’s home loss to Philadelphia in week 10 is going to come back to haunt us. Yellowknife has a single loss at home and already beat the Sailfish in their arena, but it’s possible they’re far enough ahead in the final week they just coast and don’t care about a loss. Looking at this schedule compared to others pains me and I wish I remained ignorant.
Chicago Butchers 7-5
Week 13 at Colorado (35% W)
Week 14 vs Sarasota (55% W)
Week 15 vs New York (55% W)
Week 16 at Baltimore (60% W)
In their next game Chicago plays Colorado at home and shouldn’t expect much. That single game in itself doesn’t seem to be impactful to their final standings at this point. Their next two games against Sarasota and New York will make or break their playoff hopes. To reiterate what I just said above, if you can only watch one more regular season game, watch Sarasota at Chicago in week 14. Week 15 will also prove to be a challenge, but Chicago is still at home and playing a .500 team with a slightly negative differential. I expect them to win, but it has similar upset potential like the game vs Sarasota. The Butchers can end the season 1-3 just as easily as they can finish 3-1.
Colorado Yeti 7-5
Week 13 vs Chicago (65% W)
Week 14 at Baltimore (60% W)
Week 15 vs Yellowknife (65% W)
Week 16 at Philadelphia (60% W)
Colorado lol. They get by far the most pleasant schedule to finish off. Both teams that pose a threat, they get to play at home where they’re undefeated and their other two games are against the bottom of the NSFC. It’s well within the realm of possibility that they finish 4-0 and if they beat Yellowknife it’s possible they cause a tie for first in the conference. I hate this team in a friendly rival kind of way and seeing this schedule is pure suffering. Maybe they miraculously get upset twice and “only” finish 2-2. Even if that happens I think they still make it in so they should be a lock for the second team besides Yellowknife. If Sarasota gets in there’s a large chance we play Colorado at home for the playoffs, kill me.
Berlin Fire Salamanders 5-7
Week 13 vs Baltimore (65% W)
Week 14 at Yellowknife (40% W)
Week 15 vs Philadelphia (60% W)
Week 16 vs Honolulu (70% W)
I didn’t initially plan to list these guys, but they’re an interesting case. With their remaining games they have an outside shot at the third seed. Three favourable home games against bottom teams and a big test playing Yellowknife away. Finishing 3-1 is very likely, and 4-0 is not totally improbable. The only downside of their situation is they have to overtake two teams. Sarasota and Chicago taking each other out week 14 helps their case however. I think they’re going to end up surprising people and have a reasonable chance at forcing a tiebreaker for the 3rd and final playoff spot.
Estimated Final Standings
Yellowknife 12-4
Colorado 11-5
Chicago 10-6
Sarasota 9-7
Berlin 8-8
This makes me very sad to type and I hope I reverse jinx this team. Every single game matters from here on out, but some teams are more privileged than others. If the Sailfish do not make it and you’re not a member of one of the top three teams that did, please join us in solidarity and spam #FireFrolf.
Minor ASFC Prediction
This conference is very tight and an article like this would be even better for them, however I only care who ends up the last team standing from them. I’m going with the easy pick that Orange County makes it to the Ultimus. They’ll probably get the bye with their record and differential. Without doing a huge dive in schedules like this I think Arizona will sneak into the 3rd playoff spot even though they’re listed as 6th right now. Please give me a Sarasota vs Orange County Ultimus though, beating jeffie and winning an Ultimus for it is all I want in life.