12-29-2020, 04:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-30-2020, 07:07 AM by Asked Madden.)
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1425 words 2x Media
Now that we are two-thirds of the way through the 26th DSFL season I wanted to take a look at where the teams stand currently and compare it to where each team ended last season.
Just to jog memories, let's take a look at the Season 25 final standings:
The NFC North was a blood bath while the SFC South was wrapped up half way through the season. Now let's take a look at where things currently stand.
Seems like things are pretty tight compared to last season. Only 1 team has been pretty much mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Kansas City is far and away the worst team in the league, tanking towards the number 1 pick. Their offense has fallen off of a cliff and the defense has given up almost as many points as they did all of last season with 5 games left to play. Portland is the one team that has almost certainly locked up a #1 seed. Other than that the other 3 playoff spots are up for grabs.
Team - (Points Per Game Year Over Year) - (Points Given Up Year Over Year)
Bondi Beach (0.5) (4.4)
Norfolk (8.1) (-3.5)
Dallas (4.8) (-1.4)
Tijuana (0.6) (2.1)
When looking at average points per game scored and points given up we can see that the entire SFC South offense has improved!
Bondi Beach had the best offense last year averaging almost 23 points per game and this year they are averaging slightly more than 23. Tijuana has barely improved their abysmal offense and still average less than 14 points a game. One of two teams averaging less than two touchdowns. The big improvements have been to Norfolk and Dallas. The former has scored more than a touchdown a game this season and Dallas is averaging almost 5 points more per game. Defensively, Bondi Beach and Tijuana defenses are giving up more points than they did last year while Dallas and Norfolk have improved slightly. Despite Bondi Beach being in first place, there were a few games where they have given up big points on the defensive end that has this defense rated as the worst in the division. Dallas is the only other team with a positive differential thanks to the increase to their offense. Norfolk still has a negative point differential even though they have made improvements along the offense and defense. To show just how crazy that is, Norfolk scored on average 8 points per game last season. This season they have increased that to 16. Their defense was giving up over 21 points per game last year and is now giving up just over 18. That is a 12 point change overall but still negative. This division is pretty crazy and I'm interested to see how things shake out down the stretch.
Team - (Points Per Game Year Over Year) - (Points Given Up Year Over Year)
Portland (2.3) (-3.7)
Minnesota (-1.9) (3.6)
London (-2.5) (-0.2)
Kansas City (-5) (5.6)
A little more extreme in the NFC North. Portland only has 1 loss on the season and has a stranglehold on the first seed. With 5 games left their magic number is 2 pending head to head records. They own the tie breaker in the London series so a magic number of 2 there, and then against Minnesota they won the first game so a big match up with them looms large this week. Checking out the offenses in the North we see that Portland is the only team that has seen improvements. Minnesota and London have seen small decreases to production, and Kansas City has seen a large decrease of 5 points per game. Despite London's decrease in points per game they still sit at 3rd in the league, right behind Portland. Defensively Portland has done an amazing job this season and is currently surrendering 12 points a game. London has been basically the same, Kansas City and Minnesota have been worse on defense. Just to showcase how bad the Kansas City defense has been, they have given up as many points as the number 1 scoring offense in the league, Bondi Beach, scores per game. As a division, the point differentials for every team has decreased except for Portland. The Pythons are easily the best team in this division, but London, despite their step back from last year, is a really good team. Their point differential of 6 is second in the league behind Portland, whose point differential is just under 9.
Predictions for the rest of the season.
*Bondi Beach has the 3rd best point differential and a decent schedule down the stretch. They play lowly Kansas City as well as Dallas, Norfolk, and Minnesota. That's 4 of the 6 worst defenses for the number 1 scoring offense in the league. The only "tough" team on the schedule is London who they play this week. Tough from a point differential perspective.
*Norfolk plays London and Portland, as well as Dallas, Bondi, and Tijuana. Their team will be put to the test down the stretch as they look to show that their improvements from last year don't go to waste.
*Dallas has the same schedule as Norfolk but plays London and Portland to close out the season. The final two weeks look to be the deciding factor as well as the Week 10 match up with Norfolk. This seems to be the playoff battle here.
*Tijuana, sorry but I don't see it. You are scoring less than 14 points per game and need to basically win out to get in, or at least win 4 of 5 and win both of their games against Norfolk and Dallas for tiebreaker purposes.
Final Standings
Bondi 9-5
Dallas 8-6
Norfolk 7-7
Tijuana 5-9
*Portland lost their first game last week to Bondi but that shouldn't slow down this team that plays the 0-9 Coyotes this week. They have played in a ton of 1 score games, winning most of them so I think they come down a little in record but easily the division winner in the North.
*Minnesota is on a slight losing streak but can snap out of it this week against Tijuana. They then play on the road against Portland and London. The Grey Ducks also play Bondi Beach week 14 which could decide their season.
*London has a very manageable schedule moving forward. A big match up with Bondi Beach this week and then Minnesota 2 weeks later. They also play Norfolk and Dallas which aren't slouches. If London wants to play in the post season again they need to win their division games including the Minnesota game. They are currently losing out in the head to head and division record. Their poor away schedule looks to be partly at fault, but they need to win and hope for a little luck to have a shot at the playoffs.
*Kansas City is looking forward to that #1 pick. I would also love to see a winless season. I don't know if it has been done.
Final Standings
Portland 11-3
London 9-5
Minnesota 8-6
Kansas City 0-14
Games to Look forward to
Week 10
London at Bondi Beach - Loser of this game puts them on the back foot for the final 4 weeks
Norfolk at Dallas - Winner gets second seed and possibly first seed in the South if Bondi Beach loses
Week 11
Dallas at Bondi Beach - Massive Playoff Implications!!! If one of these teams loses in both Week 10 and 11 it makes a playoff berth seem very unlikely
Week 12
Minnesota at London - London needs this game for tiebreaker purposes and winner of this game could put them in the driver seat for the 2 seed.
Week 13
Norfolk at Bondi Beach - This game could decide the #1 seed in the South. Bondi gets their 3rd home game in the Game of the Week. Could be huge for them.
Dallas at London - Both of these teams need to win.
Week 14
Norfolk at Tijuana - Norfolk probably needs a win to get in here.
Dallas at Portland - Dallas probably needs to beat Portland on the road to get in.
Bondi Beach at Minnesota - Both of these teams may need a win to get in. This could be the game that decides multiple seedings.
Let's get ready for some football!
**Note: A positive in Defensive points scored per game year over year is equivalent from going from 13 ppg to 15 ppg. In case that was confusing. So a negative number means they have improved by giving up less.