*Mocking the Mockers - Summary and Light Analysis of the DSFL Mock Drafts

[Gragg9]

Over the past week or so we’ve seen a number of DSFL mock drafts. A quick perusal over them will tell you this draft is difficult to predict and hardly anyone agrees on anything. I thought I’d write this quick article to do a side by side comparison of the authors to see where the consensus lies, if there is any. At the time of writing there were seven mocks. Myself (Gragg9), Astrophy, Vaelynn, Dude_man, CLG Rampage, Miller, and Titanfan each published one, though more may be coming soon. Below is a table containing all of the first round picks. Please check out the links to the original media below to see the excellent writeups that the original authors wrote!



The first thing you likely checked for were repeats. We have only one agreement on the first round pick among 7 mockers, which seems pretty crazy to me. Really drives home the point that no one has this figured out. Past that it’s a little difficult to tell how much these 7 authors agree, so let’s take a look at this table instead. It shows how often each player appears in a round 1 mock, regardless of which pick.



Out of 7 lists, no one made it on to more than 5. So not only do we not agree on who’s going first overall, we can’t even agree on a single player that will go in the first round. The two that get closest are Busch Goose (RB) and ‘Is He...Really Invisible?’ (QB). Both offensive weapons have been raking in the TPE pre draft so this is no big surprise. Who wouldn’t want a player already at nearly 150? Busch Goose also hails from the prospect bowl champion team, the Laser Kiwis *grumble grumble*, while ‘Is He...Really Invisible’ played for the Sols and tried to throw a pass from 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage after having rushed for the first down. So ya, he’s good too.

Beyond those 2 there were only 3 more players on the majority of lists. Of those, Prof. Godfrey Gravity is the only defensive player. Normally these drafts are not biased against defensive players, but this season there are so many irresistible offensive players that it shakes out like that.

Even looking beyond that, 15 players only appear on one list, compared to 13 being repeats. *Most* players appearing in a mock draft only appear in one. That’s how crazy this draft is to predict. Upon noticing that tidbit I decided to see which mockers picked the most unique players, and which tended to go with the majority opinion.  Below is yet another table, except I replaced the player names with how many times that player appeared in a mock draft. For example, I picked Bayley Cowabunga (WR) for my 1st overall pick. That player appeared in 3 mock drafts total (including mine) so the number 3 goes in the first row under my name.



If we do this we can see that CLG Rampage and myself agree most with the consensus. My draft was the first published so that could have had an impact. On the opposite end we have Vaelynn, who picked five players that did not appear in any other mock. To be fair I’m not entirely certain if the two Roman brother picks (picks number 4 and 5) are entirely serious. The picks that did appear in other lists only appeared one time each. Also of interest is Dude Man’s first 4 picks are all unique. Usually it’s these first few picks that will make a lot of appearances throughout the other lists but Dude Man disagrees. Again, their first pick is themselves so I’d take that with a grain of salt. Finally, it’s worth mentioning that every mocker picked one player that appeared in no other list.

But we’re not done yet! I also wanted to see how the mockers agreed regarding which position will be drafted by each team in the first round. You guessed it, that means another table.



This one simplifies picks down to only the position with color coding to signify offense or defense. The final tally by position comes down too:

QB (17)
WR (9)
RB (8)
DE (7)
LB (5)
OL (2)
S (2)
CB (1)
FB, TE, K/P (0) *RIP Hazbin

Obviously this draft is stacked at QB. The wide receiver class is underrated though, with several big TPE earners. Overall this draft class looks to be very offense heavy. The total defensive players projected in these mocks is 17, vs 17 quarterbacks alone. The pick/position match most agreed upon seems to be the Bondi Beach Buccaneers picking a quarterback, with 5 of the 7 agreeing. Of those 5, 3 say it will be Dexter Zaylren, making the last pick of the first round the most agreed upon pick by far.

Before we get onto the last point, someone posed the question on discord: ‘who will the first rookie prospect taken be?’. According to this data, the answer if overwhelmingly Prof. Godfrey Gravity (DT). Not only are they poised to be the first rookie taken, but they are also the defensive player that appears most on these lists.

Finally, I wanted to use this data to attempt to come up with something of a ‘consensus draft’. Each mockers first overall pick will be given 8 ’points’, second overall is worth 7, and so forth. From there we can tally the points each player has to see the overall confidence. Of course, this method will ignore team’s positional needs and other important factors, so take it with a massive grain of salt.



Totaling up these points shows that ‘Is He...Really Invisible?’ and Busch Goose are well ahead of the competition. If you don’t have these two going in the first round in your predictions, I hope you know what you’re doing. It’s also amusing to see Dexter Zaylren who appeared in 4 lists being below some people only picked once. Perhaps that goes to show some faults in this particular analysis.

I could keep going for a while toying with these numbers in various ways, but at this point the draft is soon approaching so I gotta get this posted. Have fun watching the draft everyone! I look forward to seeing which of these mocks proves most accurate! Please check out the original mock draft posts below!

Astrophy @Astrophy058
Vaelynn @Vaelynn
Dude_Man @dude_man
Gragg9 @Gragg9
CLG Rampage @CLG Rampage
Miller @Miller
TitanFan @xtitanxmvpx

Spreadsheet link for the interested https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...edit#gid=0



approx 1080 words

[dude_man]

This piece is amazing. Well done.

My mock is still best mock tho

[CLG Rampage]

nice write up!

[z0rem]

Wow nice insights!

[zaynzk]

good time to drop this, now we can make fun of everyone who was wrong :eyes:

[Pat]

First of all, this article is great.

Second of all, that clip of ...Really Invisible throwing that pass when well past the first down marker is hilarious.

[Magnet]

Pick #3! Congrats Anton!

[Gragg9]

Pick #3! Congrats Anton!

Thanks man! Obviously didn't see it coming.

[infinitempg]

Past that it’s a little difficult to tell how much these 7 authors agree, so let’s take a look at this table instead. It shows how often each player appears in a round 1 mock, regardless of which pick.



Out of 7 lists, no one made it on to more than 5. So not only do we not agree on who’s going first overall, we can’t even agree on a single player that will go in the first round. The two that get closest are Busch Goose (RB) and ‘Is He...Really Invisible?’ (QB). Both offensive weapons have been raking in the TPE pre draft so this is no big surprise. Who wouldn’t want a player already at nearly 150?

oh no why must you hurt me this way