03-16-2021, 08:50 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2021, 06:44 AM by Asked Madden.)
A few times throughout the season, I put out a power rankings article. I didn’t get around to it quite as often as I would have liked to, but I did enjoy writing them. And now, at the end of the season, I would like to evaluate the performance of the power rankings against the actual happenings in the sim and see how accurate they were at predicting playoff success based on regular season results. Theoretically, this should be pretty straightforward. Teams with more power should perform better in general. In a perfect world, we would expect to see the teams with the most power in their respective conferences facing off in the Ultimus with the team with the most power ultimately winning the game.
Fortunately, we are not in a perfect world and things are never that easy! So without further ado, here is how the power rankings performed!
NSFC
7th place – Baltimore: -52. We start at the bottom so that the playoff reveal is a little bit more dramatic. Baltimore by far was the worst team in the league. They scored fewer points than anyone other team while allowing more than any other team. And while the team was already on this course, the new GMs came in and committed entirely to the tank. Baltimore will suck for the next several seasons at least while they rebuild the team. The Hawks have a lot of rebuilding to do ad that will take time. I’m comfortable calling this one correct in the power rankings. Baltimore is dead last in the index and definitely belongs there.
6th place – Philadelphia: -8.5. The Liberty are in a bit of a rebuild of their own. They finish tied with Berlin at 6-10 in the index. Despite going 4-4 at home, they struggled to win anything on the road and finish the season with a losing record (although they managed to put together a couple wins at the end of the season and play spoiler to Yellowknife). This is the second time the power rankings have matched up with the index, so I am comfortable checking this one off as a success as well.
5th place – Berlin: -4.7. The Fire Salamanders never could get their offense going. They managed only 333 points on the season, finishing only ahead of Baltimore in the NSFC. I would expect to see that addressed in the draft, because their defense was actually top three in points allowed, finishing behind Sarasota and Chicago, both of which were very strong teams last season. Should the Fire Salamanders manage to boost their production on offense, they could be a real contender. Unfortunately, they come in fifth in both the power rankings and the index, making it the third time the power rankings are officially correct and starting a streak! Yay!
4th place – Yellowknife: 7.7. The difference between Berlin and fifth and Yellowknife in fourth was a massive 12.4 points. The playoff race was very tight and came down to a tie between the Yeti and the Hahalua in week 16 and Yellowknife’s loss at the hands of the Liberty, also in week 16. The defending champs missed the playoffs despite a 10 win season. As difficult as that must be, the Wraiths did manage the third most points and the most yards per game in the conference, though their defense struggled to contain their opponents’ offense. They were 6th in the conference and 13th in the league in average points allowed when the dust settled. However, the Wraiths misfortune marks the fourth consecutive time the power ranking model is correct, continuing the streak.
3rd place – Colorado: 10.8. The Yeti finished the regular season in spectacular fashion, relying on a last second bomb to send a game to overtime, then managing another game tying field goal late in overtime to end in a tie and keep the playoff hopes alive, though their fate then rested with Yellowknife. Ultimately, the Yeti ended up in the playoffs as the third seed and managed to win a playoff game before getting absolutely blown out by the eventual Ultimus winners in the conference championships. Within the regular season, the Yeti are yet another success for the power rankings model. They finished third in the index and in the power rankings, making that six straight correct placements. The playoff picture, though, is a touch more complicated. While the Yeti did manage the third seed, they faced up against Chicago in the first round. As a bit of a spoiler (though I’m sure you could have figured this one out quite easily through the simple process of elimination), the Yeti faced up against Chicago in the first round. Chicago had a significantly higher power ranking and should have won the game based on that. The Yeti, though, ended up winning and advancing to the conference championships, making this one only partially correct. I’ll still count it as correct so I can continue stroking my ego, but I feel a little less good about it.
2nd place – Sarasota: 19.4. This is the first time the power rankings have been wrong compared to the index. The Sailfish took the first seed at 12-4 in the index and went on to win the Ultimus, despite having the second best power score int eh conference and league as a whole. The Sailfish were impressive, though their defense wasn’t as impressive as the Butchers, who finished the season as the only team to allow under 300 points. They did, however, manage to put up an impressive 475 points scored on the season and win an ultimus, so I would be willing to bet they can live with the fact that their defense was “only” second best in the conference. Still, they ended the streak and I’ll never forgive them for that. Frost sux after all I guess…
1st place – Chicago: 24.2. Because the sailfish were out of place, it obviously makes sense that another team must also be out. In the ASFC, this comes with Chicago and Sarasota. After allowing only 276 points on the season and having a 6-2 record both at home and on the road (I feel I should mention here that the Sailfish had the same home/road splits), the power ranking model gave Chicago the nod. Unfortunately for the model, the index dropped Sarasota to second place AND the Yeti managed to pull of a win, knocking the highest scorer in the power raking model out of the playoffs in the first round. The Butchers had quite an amazing season, but the end result did not live up to the start, unfortunately.
The power rankings model was pretty good throughout the NSFC in the regular season. The final standings were dead on until the top two finishers were switched. The playoff picture, though, was a little more muddled as the #2 team ended up winning it all and the #1 overall team was knocked out in the first round. At this point, I’m cautiously optimistic that the results might kind of match up in the far more confusing ASFC, though early results seem to indicate that the power rankings are no good come playoff time.
ASFC
7th place – Austin: -18.5. The Copperheads did not have a good season. They came in with a final tally of 3-13, scoring more points than only lowly Baltimore and giving up more than anyone else in the conference. Sometimes you can get away with struggling a little bit on one side of the ball, but a team that struggles on both is going to the bottom and fast. The copperheads will find themselves with some real holes to address in the draft and free agency and a long way to go in order to get back into the playoff picture. Once again, the power ranking model successfully predicts last place in the regular season and moves to 1/1 in the ASFC and 6/9 overall (nice).
6th place – New York: -7.9. After having our first success, we have our first failure in the conference already and the streak ends before it even had a chance to really begin. After a good showing the insanity that was the ASFC last season, the Silverbacks did not have as good a season this time around as they come in below .500 on the season. You could probably attribute this to the five game losing streak they ended the regular season on. Yet the index thinks the Silverbacks were slightly better than the power ranking system did, so we find ourselves in this awkward situation. The Silverbacks did finish with more wins than the team above them in the power rankings, though, so I guess I’ll have to agree with the index on this one. The power rankings are wrong.
5th place – Orange County: -5.9. As previously mentioned, any time there is a “wrong” answer in the power rankings, another team will also find themselves out of place. While that was delayed until the top two finishers in the NSFC, we find it early in the ASFC with the Silverbacks and Otters. Neither team did as well as they would have liked, but the Otters fall from grace is certainly more spectacular. Their woes started early, with a controversy in the fantasy football draft before continuing to their on field performance, where they find themselves second from the bottom in the index and third from the bottom in the power rankings, missing the playoffs in both. The power rankings gave them more benefit than the index did, but ultimately it doesn’t matter much outside of the top three.
4th place – San Jose: -3.3. After that little incident with San Jose and OCO, the power rankings are back on track with San Jose in fourth. The first team out of the playoffs in both standings, the Sabercats came in with an 8-8 record, despite a point differential that was well below 0. Ultimately, they finish up pretty much even across the board. 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 6-6 in conference…truly an impressive feat to be that perfectly balanced. It feels good to be back in the “right” column after our little excursion.
3rd place – New Orleans: 8.1. In the NSFC, the huge jump was between fourth and fifth. Things were a little more clear-cut in the playoff picture of the ASFC with New Orleans holding a huge advantage over San Jose for third in the power rankings and having things pretty much locked down in week 16. While the power rankings once again find themselves “right” in terms of the regular season, the playoff picture continues to give it trouble. Despite coming in as the third seed in both the standings and power rankings, NOLA manages two wins and found themselves in the final game of the season, where they ultimately lost to the Sailfish. New Orleans had the 6th most power points in the entire league, meaning that the Ultimus was a matchup between the #2 and #6 overall teams. Not exactly a great mark for the power ranking index, though it does continue to perform adequately in the power rankings.
2nd place – Arizona: 13.7. The Outlaws had a very strong showing, winning 11 games and being in the running for the first seed going into the final game of the regular season. Unfortunately for them, Honolulu somehow managed to not lose and held onto the #1 seed in the conference. The Outlaws found themselves in second in both the index and the power rankings, putting them in the ever-more-common “right” column for the regular season, but “wrong” in terms of playoff performance as they lost in the first round to the SecondLine.
1st place – Honolulu: 16.9. The Hahalua went from last to first in a single season, ending the season on a tie to take home the #1 seed in the conference in both the official index and the power rankings measure. Powered by a 9-3 record, they earned the first round bye only to be upset in the conference championships, adding them to the still-growing list of teams that the power rankings got right for the regular season and wrong for the playoffs. It will be really interesting to see if the Hahalua manage to replicate an impressive season next time around, or if this season will be proved to be the luck of a new sim for a team that struggled mightily in DDSPF16. Only time will tell and they will certainly be an interesting team to watch.
Like the NSFC, the only issues in the ASFC were two teams being flipped and some issues predicting the playoff picture. The power rankings really seem to struggle with predicting how the 3 seed will do come playoff time, with both three seeds managing to advance and one of them finding themselves going all the way through and into the Ultimus. Overall, I would say I am happy with the overall ability of the power rankings to accurately establish who gets into the playoffs, though it would be nice if I could find a way to better predict the actual playoff finishes. Of course one singular season of analysis is hardly enough to make any overarching conclusions, but it’s more fun to overreact to limited data and assume that it must be the case. Thank you to anyone who made it this far. I hope you are enjoying your offseason and have a wonderful next season!
Fortunately, we are not in a perfect world and things are never that easy! So without further ado, here is how the power rankings performed!
NSFC
7th place – Baltimore: -52. We start at the bottom so that the playoff reveal is a little bit more dramatic. Baltimore by far was the worst team in the league. They scored fewer points than anyone other team while allowing more than any other team. And while the team was already on this course, the new GMs came in and committed entirely to the tank. Baltimore will suck for the next several seasons at least while they rebuild the team. The Hawks have a lot of rebuilding to do ad that will take time. I’m comfortable calling this one correct in the power rankings. Baltimore is dead last in the index and definitely belongs there.
6th place – Philadelphia: -8.5. The Liberty are in a bit of a rebuild of their own. They finish tied with Berlin at 6-10 in the index. Despite going 4-4 at home, they struggled to win anything on the road and finish the season with a losing record (although they managed to put together a couple wins at the end of the season and play spoiler to Yellowknife). This is the second time the power rankings have matched up with the index, so I am comfortable checking this one off as a success as well.
5th place – Berlin: -4.7. The Fire Salamanders never could get their offense going. They managed only 333 points on the season, finishing only ahead of Baltimore in the NSFC. I would expect to see that addressed in the draft, because their defense was actually top three in points allowed, finishing behind Sarasota and Chicago, both of which were very strong teams last season. Should the Fire Salamanders manage to boost their production on offense, they could be a real contender. Unfortunately, they come in fifth in both the power rankings and the index, making it the third time the power rankings are officially correct and starting a streak! Yay!
4th place – Yellowknife: 7.7. The difference between Berlin and fifth and Yellowknife in fourth was a massive 12.4 points. The playoff race was very tight and came down to a tie between the Yeti and the Hahalua in week 16 and Yellowknife’s loss at the hands of the Liberty, also in week 16. The defending champs missed the playoffs despite a 10 win season. As difficult as that must be, the Wraiths did manage the third most points and the most yards per game in the conference, though their defense struggled to contain their opponents’ offense. They were 6th in the conference and 13th in the league in average points allowed when the dust settled. However, the Wraiths misfortune marks the fourth consecutive time the power ranking model is correct, continuing the streak.
3rd place – Colorado: 10.8. The Yeti finished the regular season in spectacular fashion, relying on a last second bomb to send a game to overtime, then managing another game tying field goal late in overtime to end in a tie and keep the playoff hopes alive, though their fate then rested with Yellowknife. Ultimately, the Yeti ended up in the playoffs as the third seed and managed to win a playoff game before getting absolutely blown out by the eventual Ultimus winners in the conference championships. Within the regular season, the Yeti are yet another success for the power rankings model. They finished third in the index and in the power rankings, making that six straight correct placements. The playoff picture, though, is a touch more complicated. While the Yeti did manage the third seed, they faced up against Chicago in the first round. As a bit of a spoiler (though I’m sure you could have figured this one out quite easily through the simple process of elimination), the Yeti faced up against Chicago in the first round. Chicago had a significantly higher power ranking and should have won the game based on that. The Yeti, though, ended up winning and advancing to the conference championships, making this one only partially correct. I’ll still count it as correct so I can continue stroking my ego, but I feel a little less good about it.
2nd place – Sarasota: 19.4. This is the first time the power rankings have been wrong compared to the index. The Sailfish took the first seed at 12-4 in the index and went on to win the Ultimus, despite having the second best power score int eh conference and league as a whole. The Sailfish were impressive, though their defense wasn’t as impressive as the Butchers, who finished the season as the only team to allow under 300 points. They did, however, manage to put up an impressive 475 points scored on the season and win an ultimus, so I would be willing to bet they can live with the fact that their defense was “only” second best in the conference. Still, they ended the streak and I’ll never forgive them for that. Frost sux after all I guess…
1st place – Chicago: 24.2. Because the sailfish were out of place, it obviously makes sense that another team must also be out. In the ASFC, this comes with Chicago and Sarasota. After allowing only 276 points on the season and having a 6-2 record both at home and on the road (I feel I should mention here that the Sailfish had the same home/road splits), the power ranking model gave Chicago the nod. Unfortunately for the model, the index dropped Sarasota to second place AND the Yeti managed to pull of a win, knocking the highest scorer in the power raking model out of the playoffs in the first round. The Butchers had quite an amazing season, but the end result did not live up to the start, unfortunately.
The power rankings model was pretty good throughout the NSFC in the regular season. The final standings were dead on until the top two finishers were switched. The playoff picture, though, was a little more muddled as the #2 team ended up winning it all and the #1 overall team was knocked out in the first round. At this point, I’m cautiously optimistic that the results might kind of match up in the far more confusing ASFC, though early results seem to indicate that the power rankings are no good come playoff time.
ASFC
7th place – Austin: -18.5. The Copperheads did not have a good season. They came in with a final tally of 3-13, scoring more points than only lowly Baltimore and giving up more than anyone else in the conference. Sometimes you can get away with struggling a little bit on one side of the ball, but a team that struggles on both is going to the bottom and fast. The copperheads will find themselves with some real holes to address in the draft and free agency and a long way to go in order to get back into the playoff picture. Once again, the power ranking model successfully predicts last place in the regular season and moves to 1/1 in the ASFC and 6/9 overall (nice).
6th place – New York: -7.9. After having our first success, we have our first failure in the conference already and the streak ends before it even had a chance to really begin. After a good showing the insanity that was the ASFC last season, the Silverbacks did not have as good a season this time around as they come in below .500 on the season. You could probably attribute this to the five game losing streak they ended the regular season on. Yet the index thinks the Silverbacks were slightly better than the power ranking system did, so we find ourselves in this awkward situation. The Silverbacks did finish with more wins than the team above them in the power rankings, though, so I guess I’ll have to agree with the index on this one. The power rankings are wrong.
5th place – Orange County: -5.9. As previously mentioned, any time there is a “wrong” answer in the power rankings, another team will also find themselves out of place. While that was delayed until the top two finishers in the NSFC, we find it early in the ASFC with the Silverbacks and Otters. Neither team did as well as they would have liked, but the Otters fall from grace is certainly more spectacular. Their woes started early, with a controversy in the fantasy football draft before continuing to their on field performance, where they find themselves second from the bottom in the index and third from the bottom in the power rankings, missing the playoffs in both. The power rankings gave them more benefit than the index did, but ultimately it doesn’t matter much outside of the top three.
4th place – San Jose: -3.3. After that little incident with San Jose and OCO, the power rankings are back on track with San Jose in fourth. The first team out of the playoffs in both standings, the Sabercats came in with an 8-8 record, despite a point differential that was well below 0. Ultimately, they finish up pretty much even across the board. 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 6-6 in conference…truly an impressive feat to be that perfectly balanced. It feels good to be back in the “right” column after our little excursion.
3rd place – New Orleans: 8.1. In the NSFC, the huge jump was between fourth and fifth. Things were a little more clear-cut in the playoff picture of the ASFC with New Orleans holding a huge advantage over San Jose for third in the power rankings and having things pretty much locked down in week 16. While the power rankings once again find themselves “right” in terms of the regular season, the playoff picture continues to give it trouble. Despite coming in as the third seed in both the standings and power rankings, NOLA manages two wins and found themselves in the final game of the season, where they ultimately lost to the Sailfish. New Orleans had the 6th most power points in the entire league, meaning that the Ultimus was a matchup between the #2 and #6 overall teams. Not exactly a great mark for the power ranking index, though it does continue to perform adequately in the power rankings.
2nd place – Arizona: 13.7. The Outlaws had a very strong showing, winning 11 games and being in the running for the first seed going into the final game of the regular season. Unfortunately for them, Honolulu somehow managed to not lose and held onto the #1 seed in the conference. The Outlaws found themselves in second in both the index and the power rankings, putting them in the ever-more-common “right” column for the regular season, but “wrong” in terms of playoff performance as they lost in the first round to the SecondLine.
1st place – Honolulu: 16.9. The Hahalua went from last to first in a single season, ending the season on a tie to take home the #1 seed in the conference in both the official index and the power rankings measure. Powered by a 9-3 record, they earned the first round bye only to be upset in the conference championships, adding them to the still-growing list of teams that the power rankings got right for the regular season and wrong for the playoffs. It will be really interesting to see if the Hahalua manage to replicate an impressive season next time around, or if this season will be proved to be the luck of a new sim for a team that struggled mightily in DDSPF16. Only time will tell and they will certainly be an interesting team to watch.
Like the NSFC, the only issues in the ASFC were two teams being flipped and some issues predicting the playoff picture. The power rankings really seem to struggle with predicting how the 3 seed will do come playoff time, with both three seeds managing to advance and one of them finding themselves going all the way through and into the Ultimus. Overall, I would say I am happy with the overall ability of the power rankings to accurately establish who gets into the playoffs, though it would be nice if I could find a way to better predict the actual playoff finishes. Of course one singular season of analysis is hardly enough to make any overarching conclusions, but it’s more fun to overreact to limited data and assume that it must be the case. Thank you to anyone who made it this far. I hope you are enjoying your offseason and have a wonderful next season!