Hi, and welcome to what I hope to be the last edition of a now seemingly three part series on statistical vs performance analysis of players, specifically my own. If you are just now joining us for your first time on our magical journey, might I strongly suggest you go back in your time machine to review part one (easily found Here) and part two (just as easily found Here) before we switch on the “fasten seat belt” sign and take off. For the uninitiated the goal of this exercise is to go back and watch the streams AKA game film of the player in question, once again my own, to evaluate if the statistics generated in the stat sheet at the end of the game are a good indication of actual player performance. Now you might guess by the title of this series that I have a pretty strong suspicion that they in fact do not, but hypotheses are like children so if it aint mine I don’t have to care about it but still have a deep inner desire to prove mine is better than yours. Previously I had left off with two straight game reviews of little AKA zero statistical impact, but showed with play by play break downs that my player performed quite well and was of significant value to the team and overall outcome (spoiler they were both wins, Birddogs on a tear this year). This time around I’ll be rewinding the tape on the most statistically impressive game to see if the gaudy numbers put up in fact show a better performance than the first two games or if there is actually no correlation. So let’s go ahead and grab that popcorn and get to work
Game 3, DSFL Season 27 Week 6, Dallas Birddogs at Portland Pythons
Play 1: 12:16 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop route and maintains tight coverage. The pass goes to another player on the left who starts to break away from the corner in coverage, my player starts pursuit but the ball carrier is tackled downfield before my player gets close - WIN
Play 2: 11:06 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE#87, my player drives on the five yard stop route and maintains tight coverage. The pass goes to another player on the right who breaks away from the corner in coverage, my player starts pursuit but the ball carrier reaches the endzone before my player can catch up - WIN
Play 3: 8:40 Q1 - Run play right, my player holds position, maintaining the ability to break inside or outside, as the ball carrier approaches, but the RB is tackled just before he reaches my player - Minor WIN
Play 4: 8:08 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The ball is thrown to the TE who makes the catch and adds another six yards before my player secures the tackle - LOSS
Play 5: 6:29 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the two yard stop route, maintaining tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player to the right but falls incomplete - WIN
Play 6: 6:09 Q1 - My player appears to have a middle zone or QB spy responsibility, he sits in the middle of the field at about five yards while the play develops, it looks like he starts to pick up WR #28 on the crossing route, but just as the receiver comes into my player’s zone the pass is thrown to another player on the left and my player begins pursuit - WIN
Play 7: 5:26 Q1 - Not exactly sure what the coverage call is, my player is lined up on the defensive left as usual, but comes up and to the middle of the field before driving on TE #87 running the speed out on the defensive right side of the field. My player maintains close coverage and the pass is thrown to another player on the left - WIN
Play 8: 4:23 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the left and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 9 - 15:00 Q2 - Looks to be a two deep zone coverage, my player originally drops back, but with no immediate vertical threat he drives on the ten yard out route by TE #87. Eventually WR #83 does break vertically into my player’s original coverage area, but the pass is thrown to another player on the left and is broken up by the corner in coverage - Minor WIN
Play 10: 12:11 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The ball is thrown to the TE as he starts to break upfield and gains another 15 yards before my player can tackle him - LOSS
Play 11: 11:24 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage.The pass is thrown to another player on the left and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 12: 11:09 Q2 - Looks like another two deep zone coverage with only one receiver running a route on my player’s side of the field. He starts drifting towards WR #83 running the eight yard out route and breaks when the pass is thrown to the receiver,who is then immediately tackled by the corner in coverage- WIN
Play 13: 9:04 Q2 - Appears to be a single high safety look as my player drops towards the deep middle of the field. He does break on TE #87 running a speed out which leaves WR #83 open on the deep post as the receiver breaks away from the corner. The play ends with the QB taking a sack, but it looks like it may have been a broken coverage that could’ve ended very poorly for the Birddogs - Minor LOSS
Play 14: 8:17 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the right and is broken up by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 15: 6:10 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the left who is tackled immediately by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 16: 5:06 Q2 - The play starts out looking like a two deep zone coverage, but my player breaks on the eight yard out route by TE #87 as WR #83 runs a rub route. The out route turns into a wheel route but my player is able to get around the pick set by the WR to maintain close coverage and watch the pass to the TE fall incomplete - WIN
Play 17: 4:31 Q2 - Looks to be man to man coverage on TE #29, who stays near the line of scrimmage either as a blocker or as an outlet receiver. My player maintains close coverage and the pass is thrown to another player on the left and is intercepted - WIN
Play 18: 0:57 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87 running the drag route, my player drives on the break and maintains close coverage. The pass is thrown to WR #83 on the slant and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 19: 0:43 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage.The ball is thrown to the TE as he starts to break upfield and gains another 14 yards before my player can tackle him - LOSS
Play 20: 0:10 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #38 who comes out of the backfield on a speed out route with WR #83 running a slant as a rub route. My player is able to avoid the pick route and maintain close coverage on the TE, so the pass goes to another player to the left and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 21: 14:56 Q3 - Run play up the middle, my player maintains outside leverage on the ball carrier as he approaches, attempting to force him back in to the rest of the defense. The ball carrier manages to get past him and start to break outside again but is caught by the other safety - Minor LOSS
Play 22: 13:46 Q3 - Run play up the middle that RB #29 breaks outside to the right, my player is slow to contain and the RB is able to get past him on the outside and continue upfield before being tackled by another defender - LOSS
Play 23: 12:55 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #87 running the drag route, my player drives on the break and maintains close coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the left and my player begins pursuit until the ball carrier is tackled by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 24: 12:08 Q3 - Technically a two deep zone, which is a terrible call on the goal line as both safeties back pedal out of the back of the endzone. The pass is thrown short outside for a touchdown. I blame the sim logic on this one but technically…. - Minor LOSS
Play 25: 5:00 Q3 - Two deep zone coverage, my player back pedals before driving on the pass underneath to TE #19 on the dump off. My player rallies but the ball carrier is tackled by the LB just before my player arrives - Minor WIN
Play 26: 4:23 Q3 - Again the play is moving too fast to tell exactly what the coverage is, could be man to man on WR #19 or a hook zone coverage that he just happens to run his slant directly into, either way the ball is out quick to RB (?) #34 who drops the ball like a scrub - WIN
Play 27: 14:42 Q4 - Genuinely don’t know what my player could be doing, maybe some sort of weird flat zone coverage or a safety blitz he bailed on when he saw the QB start to throw? No idea but either way he hops right in the throwing lane in front of WR #83 running a slant route to snag the pick and return it for 7 yards before being tackled - WIN
Play 28: 11:10 Q4 - Another two deep zone look, both safeties drop back as the play develops. The QB throws the pass to WR #83 on the stop route who then turns it upfield where he is tackled in the open field by my player - WIN
Play 29: 10:21 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The TE gets the pass and is immediately tackled by my player (penalty nullifies the play) - Minor WIN
Play 30: 10:06 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The QB holds the ball too long and gets sacked, fumbling the ball and my player starts to move towards the loose ball before it is recovered by the sacking defender - WIN
Play 31: Maybe a safety blitz or man to man coverage on RB #29 flaring out of the backfield, either way the pass gets out too quick to tell to TE #87 on the three yard stop who gets dropped by the LB right away - Minor WIN
Play 32: 4:58 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player to the left who is tackled immediately by the safety in coverage - WIN
Play 33: 4:18 Q4 - Appears to be quarters coverage, the pass goes out fairly quick to WR #83 on the slant route, who break it back to the outside. My player is able to cut off the ball carriers angle to the sideline and tackle him in the open field - WIN
Play 34: 3:44 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the very slow speed out and maintains tight coverage. The pass is out quick to RB #29 who is tackled immediately by the safety in coverage - WIN
Play 35: 3:24 Q4 - Run play to the left, RB #38 breaks it back inside. My player is holding contain and is in position to make a play on the ball carrier whichever direction he goes, but the RB is tackled right before reaching my player - Minor WIN
Play 36: 1:38 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass goes to another player on the right who is tackled immediately by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 37: 0:52 Q4 - I think it’s man to man coverage on TE #87, my player rushes up to him quickly but is in kind of a poor trail position on the wheel route before catching back up to the TE. The QB rolls out left and throws it incomplete (way past the line of scrimmage when he threw it, just saying…) - Minor LOSS
Play 38: 0:09 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The TE breaks it upfield and catches the pass only to continue to outrun my player until eventually the corner from the other side of the field is able to tackle the ball carrier - LOSS
So this was statistically by far the best game my player had played by racking up 6 tackles, one pass defense, and reeling in an interception. It is kind of surprising that this statistical showing didn’t come later in the year as he gathered more and more TPE. But I guess that helps my theory that stats don’t necessarily equate to playing well. Grading the play by play breakdown, my player performance ended with a whopping 23 reps as a WIN (61 percent of plays), another 6 reps as a Minor WIN (16 percent of plays), 4 reps as a Minor LOSS (11 percent of plays), and finally a total of 5 reps as a LOSS (13 percent of plays). The combined percentage of LOSS/Minor LOSS plays is definitely the highest of the game watched, a dreadful 24 percent of plays versus the 11 percent and 18 percent performances put up in games one and two, respectively. I will say that these evaluations are pretty subjective as I don’t actually know the play calls or responsibilities on these plays, so some of my assumptions about coverages could be wrong. Anyway, for some sort of explanation as to why this change happened, it could be the level of competition got better, the plays that were still open but dropped or had a bad throw were now able to connect, or perhaps my player just had a bad day, surely that can happen even in the virtual world. It’s hard to say exactly what the case is but either way, the reality is half my tackle statistics came on failed plays. Plays where my player was flat out beat by the offensive player on the rep and happened to recover before bad turned into terrible. To be fair and give a grain of perspective, even on the statistically great night with trouble analysis, my player was still graded to have a positive performance on 72 percent of the plays, so I truly believe he still had a decent at worst game and definitely contributed to the team win, I just don’t think I can honestly say it was a better performance than either of the two previous games I reviewed. So that’s it, stats are stupid out of context and if you only focus on them then shame on you. Oh also don’t vote for league awards solely based on the stats, I mean come one, I just dropped like 7000 words over three articles telling you why that’s bush league. Don’t be bush league. Be better. Watch the film. Vote responsibly.
Word Count: 2749
Game 3, DSFL Season 27 Week 6, Dallas Birddogs at Portland Pythons
Play 1: 12:16 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop route and maintains tight coverage. The pass goes to another player on the left who starts to break away from the corner in coverage, my player starts pursuit but the ball carrier is tackled downfield before my player gets close - WIN
Play 2: 11:06 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE#87, my player drives on the five yard stop route and maintains tight coverage. The pass goes to another player on the right who breaks away from the corner in coverage, my player starts pursuit but the ball carrier reaches the endzone before my player can catch up - WIN
Play 3: 8:40 Q1 - Run play right, my player holds position, maintaining the ability to break inside or outside, as the ball carrier approaches, but the RB is tackled just before he reaches my player - Minor WIN
Play 4: 8:08 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The ball is thrown to the TE who makes the catch and adds another six yards before my player secures the tackle - LOSS
Play 5: 6:29 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the two yard stop route, maintaining tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player to the right but falls incomplete - WIN
Play 6: 6:09 Q1 - My player appears to have a middle zone or QB spy responsibility, he sits in the middle of the field at about five yards while the play develops, it looks like he starts to pick up WR #28 on the crossing route, but just as the receiver comes into my player’s zone the pass is thrown to another player on the left and my player begins pursuit - WIN
Play 7: 5:26 Q1 - Not exactly sure what the coverage call is, my player is lined up on the defensive left as usual, but comes up and to the middle of the field before driving on TE #87 running the speed out on the defensive right side of the field. My player maintains close coverage and the pass is thrown to another player on the left - WIN
Play 8: 4:23 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the left and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 9 - 15:00 Q2 - Looks to be a two deep zone coverage, my player originally drops back, but with no immediate vertical threat he drives on the ten yard out route by TE #87. Eventually WR #83 does break vertically into my player’s original coverage area, but the pass is thrown to another player on the left and is broken up by the corner in coverage - Minor WIN
Play 10: 12:11 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The ball is thrown to the TE as he starts to break upfield and gains another 15 yards before my player can tackle him - LOSS
Play 11: 11:24 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage.The pass is thrown to another player on the left and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 12: 11:09 Q2 - Looks like another two deep zone coverage with only one receiver running a route on my player’s side of the field. He starts drifting towards WR #83 running the eight yard out route and breaks when the pass is thrown to the receiver,who is then immediately tackled by the corner in coverage- WIN
Play 13: 9:04 Q2 - Appears to be a single high safety look as my player drops towards the deep middle of the field. He does break on TE #87 running a speed out which leaves WR #83 open on the deep post as the receiver breaks away from the corner. The play ends with the QB taking a sack, but it looks like it may have been a broken coverage that could’ve ended very poorly for the Birddogs - Minor LOSS
Play 14: 8:17 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the right and is broken up by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 15: 6:10 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the left who is tackled immediately by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 16: 5:06 Q2 - The play starts out looking like a two deep zone coverage, but my player breaks on the eight yard out route by TE #87 as WR #83 runs a rub route. The out route turns into a wheel route but my player is able to get around the pick set by the WR to maintain close coverage and watch the pass to the TE fall incomplete - WIN
Play 17: 4:31 Q2 - Looks to be man to man coverage on TE #29, who stays near the line of scrimmage either as a blocker or as an outlet receiver. My player maintains close coverage and the pass is thrown to another player on the left and is intercepted - WIN
Play 18: 0:57 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87 running the drag route, my player drives on the break and maintains close coverage. The pass is thrown to WR #83 on the slant and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 19: 0:43 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage.The ball is thrown to the TE as he starts to break upfield and gains another 14 yards before my player can tackle him - LOSS
Play 20: 0:10 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #38 who comes out of the backfield on a speed out route with WR #83 running a slant as a rub route. My player is able to avoid the pick route and maintain close coverage on the TE, so the pass goes to another player to the left and falls incomplete - WIN
Play 21: 14:56 Q3 - Run play up the middle, my player maintains outside leverage on the ball carrier as he approaches, attempting to force him back in to the rest of the defense. The ball carrier manages to get past him and start to break outside again but is caught by the other safety - Minor LOSS
Play 22: 13:46 Q3 - Run play up the middle that RB #29 breaks outside to the right, my player is slow to contain and the RB is able to get past him on the outside and continue upfield before being tackled by another defender - LOSS
Play 23: 12:55 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #87 running the drag route, my player drives on the break and maintains close coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the left and my player begins pursuit until the ball carrier is tackled by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 24: 12:08 Q3 - Technically a two deep zone, which is a terrible call on the goal line as both safeties back pedal out of the back of the endzone. The pass is thrown short outside for a touchdown. I blame the sim logic on this one but technically…. - Minor LOSS
Play 25: 5:00 Q3 - Two deep zone coverage, my player back pedals before driving on the pass underneath to TE #19 on the dump off. My player rallies but the ball carrier is tackled by the LB just before my player arrives - Minor WIN
Play 26: 4:23 Q3 - Again the play is moving too fast to tell exactly what the coverage is, could be man to man on WR #19 or a hook zone coverage that he just happens to run his slant directly into, either way the ball is out quick to RB (?) #34 who drops the ball like a scrub - WIN
Play 27: 14:42 Q4 - Genuinely don’t know what my player could be doing, maybe some sort of weird flat zone coverage or a safety blitz he bailed on when he saw the QB start to throw? No idea but either way he hops right in the throwing lane in front of WR #83 running a slant route to snag the pick and return it for 7 yards before being tackled - WIN
Play 28: 11:10 Q4 - Another two deep zone look, both safeties drop back as the play develops. The QB throws the pass to WR #83 on the stop route who then turns it upfield where he is tackled in the open field by my player - WIN
Play 29: 10:21 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The TE gets the pass and is immediately tackled by my player (penalty nullifies the play) - Minor WIN
Play 30: 10:06 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The QB holds the ball too long and gets sacked, fumbling the ball and my player starts to move towards the loose ball before it is recovered by the sacking defender - WIN
Play 31: Maybe a safety blitz or man to man coverage on RB #29 flaring out of the backfield, either way the pass gets out too quick to tell to TE #87 on the three yard stop who gets dropped by the LB right away - Minor WIN
Play 32: 4:58 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player to the left who is tackled immediately by the safety in coverage - WIN
Play 33: 4:18 Q4 - Appears to be quarters coverage, the pass goes out fairly quick to WR #83 on the slant route, who break it back to the outside. My player is able to cut off the ball carriers angle to the sideline and tackle him in the open field - WIN
Play 34: 3:44 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the very slow speed out and maintains tight coverage. The pass is out quick to RB #29 who is tackled immediately by the safety in coverage - WIN
Play 35: 3:24 Q4 - Run play to the left, RB #38 breaks it back inside. My player is holding contain and is in position to make a play on the ball carrier whichever direction he goes, but the RB is tackled right before reaching my player - Minor WIN
Play 36: 1:38 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass goes to another player on the right who is tackled immediately by the corner in coverage - WIN
Play 37: 0:52 Q4 - I think it’s man to man coverage on TE #87, my player rushes up to him quickly but is in kind of a poor trail position on the wheel route before catching back up to the TE. The QB rolls out left and throws it incomplete (way past the line of scrimmage when he threw it, just saying…) - Minor LOSS
Play 38: 0:09 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #87, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The TE breaks it upfield and catches the pass only to continue to outrun my player until eventually the corner from the other side of the field is able to tackle the ball carrier - LOSS
So this was statistically by far the best game my player had played by racking up 6 tackles, one pass defense, and reeling in an interception. It is kind of surprising that this statistical showing didn’t come later in the year as he gathered more and more TPE. But I guess that helps my theory that stats don’t necessarily equate to playing well. Grading the play by play breakdown, my player performance ended with a whopping 23 reps as a WIN (61 percent of plays), another 6 reps as a Minor WIN (16 percent of plays), 4 reps as a Minor LOSS (11 percent of plays), and finally a total of 5 reps as a LOSS (13 percent of plays). The combined percentage of LOSS/Minor LOSS plays is definitely the highest of the game watched, a dreadful 24 percent of plays versus the 11 percent and 18 percent performances put up in games one and two, respectively. I will say that these evaluations are pretty subjective as I don’t actually know the play calls or responsibilities on these plays, so some of my assumptions about coverages could be wrong. Anyway, for some sort of explanation as to why this change happened, it could be the level of competition got better, the plays that were still open but dropped or had a bad throw were now able to connect, or perhaps my player just had a bad day, surely that can happen even in the virtual world. It’s hard to say exactly what the case is but either way, the reality is half my tackle statistics came on failed plays. Plays where my player was flat out beat by the offensive player on the rep and happened to recover before bad turned into terrible. To be fair and give a grain of perspective, even on the statistically great night with trouble analysis, my player was still graded to have a positive performance on 72 percent of the plays, so I truly believe he still had a decent at worst game and definitely contributed to the team win, I just don’t think I can honestly say it was a better performance than either of the two previous games I reviewed. So that’s it, stats are stupid out of context and if you only focus on them then shame on you. Oh also don’t vote for league awards solely based on the stats, I mean come one, I just dropped like 7000 words over three articles telling you why that’s bush league. Don’t be bush league. Be better. Watch the film. Vote responsibly.
Word Count: 2749