Hello, and welcome to what I hope to turn into a weekly series covering the last sim day of the week's matchups, providing some TPE analysis to help better guide choices in the predictions, assuming I don't post it late. Seeing as this is the first week I'm doing this, there will be improvements made in the coming weeks that will hopefully allow better comparisons, such as Offense vs Defense, not just skill positions against each other. I'll also be tracking the league leaders in each position through the season.
I would also like to thank @"Punter715" for giving me the original spreadsheet for this and giving me the idea to start this series!
Sarasota comes into this matchup feeling like the clear favorites, and while the TPE does lean their way, it’s not by as much as one might think. Berlin holds the advantage in 5 different skill groups: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle, Cornerback, and Safety. Their strength on the line isn’t something to stick your nose up at either, with an advantage of 724 TPE on the O-Line, and 793 TPE in their Defensive Tackles. Sarasota makes a strong case for their team though, with their largest advantages being in the Defensive End (not surprising, they lead the league with a total of 2555 TPE in the position) and Linebacker positions. Sarasota also makes it count in 3 of the 4 offensive threat positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and they’re only 348 TPE behind in the QB position. The WR threat can possibly be considered neutralized by the fact that Berlin has the second-best group of corners in the league, and it shows with the 964 TPE advantage in that position compared to Sarasota. I’m still taking the defending champs in this matchup, but it’s a tossup for sure.
The Butchers are able to match the Yeti pretty closely in the first two offensive skill positions, combining for less than a 100 TPE disadvantage when you combine the QB and WR positions. After that, the teams are drastically different, with no other position other than Safety being within 380 TPE of each other. The largest differences come on the line, where Chicago’s league-leading groups of Offensive Lineman and Defensive Tackles bring their full weight to bear, with a whopping 1814 TPE advantage on the O-line, and 1137 TPE advantage in the Defensive Tackle group. A large gap in the TE position (861 TPE advantage) also goes the way of Chicago, and while Colorado does take the WR group by a decently wide margin, it can’t overcome the deficits elsewhere, giving Chicago, in the end, an enormous 3056 TPE advantage. It’s hard to say that the Yeti will be able to pull this one out, even with whatever they can manage with a home-field advantage.
This is one of the closer matchups of the week, with the Wraiths having a total of a 110 TPE advantage over the Sabercats. The biggest advantage in this game goes to Yellowknife, who holds a 1004 TPE lead in the Defensive End group. That doesn’t break the backs of San Jose though, as they hold sizable leads in the Running Back, Defensive Tackle, and Linebacker (744 TPE, 520 TPE, and 777 TPE respectively). The San Jose advantage in the Wide Receiver group is minimal and more than covered by the Cornerback advantage (249 TPE) that Yellowknife has. It’s always fun to talk about league-leading positions, and both of these teams have one; the Quarterbacks for Yellowknife lead the league at a total of 1429 TPE, and the Sabercats lead the league in the Kicker/Punter category. This game is a toss-up at best, and since Yellowknife has whatever home-field advantage exists in this engine, I’m going to give it to them.
The Liberty are far and away the better team when it comes to TPE advantage, with their only position that isn’t in their favor being the Quarterback, in which they are 259 TPE behind. That’s nowhere near enough to cut into the lead created elsewhere, especially at the Running Back (1221 TPE advantage) and Offensive Line (1668 TPE advantage). Any team with human Offensive Linemen will crush Baltimore though, as they currently have a total of 0 TPE in that position (bots are not included in these calculations). It’s hard not to say that Baltimore is the worst team in the league this season, and it really shows when compared to a team that’s still coming out of a rebuild like Philadelphia. Take the Liberty in this matchup unless you really believe in home-field advantage or sim magic.
The Hahalua take more advantage in position count, however, the Silverback's massive advantage at the Wide Receiver position (1581 TPE advantage) and Offensive Line (850 TPE advantage) makes it so that they hold the overall advantage in this matchup. Honolulu’s largest advantage comes at the Defensive End position with a 707 TPE advantage, though their Running Back advantage is sizable too, being a 561 TPE gap. The Home team has the advantage in this one, and I agree with the stats here and will likely take New York.
This last matchup is one of the closer ones this week, and Orange County holds the total advantage by 1420 TPE, and in skill positions in 6 of the 11 positions. With a league-leading Safety group (3634 TPE), it’s not surprising that Orange County holds the advantage, but it’s by one of the largest margins we’ve seen so far, a 1933 TPE advantage over the Austin group. Orange County also holds a 1073 TPE advantage in the Defensive Tackle position, not entirely surprising given that Austin’s Max TPE player in the Defensive Tackle spot only has 495 TPE. I’m going with Orange County in this matchup, especially since they hold a home-field advantage alongside the TPE advantage.
I would also like to thank @"Punter715" for giving me the original spreadsheet for this and giving me the idea to start this series!
League Leaders
Week 4 Matchups
Berlin Fire Salamanders @ Sarasota Sailfish
Sarasota comes into this matchup feeling like the clear favorites, and while the TPE does lean their way, it’s not by as much as one might think. Berlin holds the advantage in 5 different skill groups: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle, Cornerback, and Safety. Their strength on the line isn’t something to stick your nose up at either, with an advantage of 724 TPE on the O-Line, and 793 TPE in their Defensive Tackles. Sarasota makes a strong case for their team though, with their largest advantages being in the Defensive End (not surprising, they lead the league with a total of 2555 TPE in the position) and Linebacker positions. Sarasota also makes it count in 3 of the 4 offensive threat positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and they’re only 348 TPE behind in the QB position. The WR threat can possibly be considered neutralized by the fact that Berlin has the second-best group of corners in the league, and it shows with the 964 TPE advantage in that position compared to Sarasota. I’m still taking the defending champs in this matchup, but it’s a tossup for sure.
Chicago Butchers @ Colorado Yeti
The Butchers are able to match the Yeti pretty closely in the first two offensive skill positions, combining for less than a 100 TPE disadvantage when you combine the QB and WR positions. After that, the teams are drastically different, with no other position other than Safety being within 380 TPE of each other. The largest differences come on the line, where Chicago’s league-leading groups of Offensive Lineman and Defensive Tackles bring their full weight to bear, with a whopping 1814 TPE advantage on the O-line, and 1137 TPE advantage in the Defensive Tackle group. A large gap in the TE position (861 TPE advantage) also goes the way of Chicago, and while Colorado does take the WR group by a decently wide margin, it can’t overcome the deficits elsewhere, giving Chicago, in the end, an enormous 3056 TPE advantage. It’s hard to say that the Yeti will be able to pull this one out, even with whatever they can manage with a home-field advantage.
San Jose Sabercats @ Yellowknife Wraiths
This is one of the closer matchups of the week, with the Wraiths having a total of a 110 TPE advantage over the Sabercats. The biggest advantage in this game goes to Yellowknife, who holds a 1004 TPE lead in the Defensive End group. That doesn’t break the backs of San Jose though, as they hold sizable leads in the Running Back, Defensive Tackle, and Linebacker (744 TPE, 520 TPE, and 777 TPE respectively). The San Jose advantage in the Wide Receiver group is minimal and more than covered by the Cornerback advantage (249 TPE) that Yellowknife has. It’s always fun to talk about league-leading positions, and both of these teams have one; the Quarterbacks for Yellowknife lead the league at a total of 1429 TPE, and the Sabercats lead the league in the Kicker/Punter category. This game is a toss-up at best, and since Yellowknife has whatever home-field advantage exists in this engine, I’m going to give it to them.
Philadelphia Liberty @ Baltimore Hawks
The Liberty are far and away the better team when it comes to TPE advantage, with their only position that isn’t in their favor being the Quarterback, in which they are 259 TPE behind. That’s nowhere near enough to cut into the lead created elsewhere, especially at the Running Back (1221 TPE advantage) and Offensive Line (1668 TPE advantage). Any team with human Offensive Linemen will crush Baltimore though, as they currently have a total of 0 TPE in that position (bots are not included in these calculations). It’s hard not to say that Baltimore is the worst team in the league this season, and it really shows when compared to a team that’s still coming out of a rebuild like Philadelphia. Take the Liberty in this matchup unless you really believe in home-field advantage or sim magic.
Honolulu Hahalua @ New York Silverbacks
The Hahalua take more advantage in position count, however, the Silverback's massive advantage at the Wide Receiver position (1581 TPE advantage) and Offensive Line (850 TPE advantage) makes it so that they hold the overall advantage in this matchup. Honolulu’s largest advantage comes at the Defensive End position with a 707 TPE advantage, though their Running Back advantage is sizable too, being a 561 TPE gap. The Home team has the advantage in this one, and I agree with the stats here and will likely take New York.
New Orleans Second Line @ Arizona Outlaws
Arizona is the clear victor in this matchup when it comes to TPE advantage, with a total of 5382 TPE overall skill positions. They have four positions with more than a 1000 TPE advantage, and while the Second Line has an 1163 TPE advantage in the Defensive End position, it’s not nearly enough to make up for how far ahead the Outlaws are elsewhere. New Orleans also holds a lead in the Quarterback position and in the Tight End position, but with an advantage of only 318 TPE and 215 TPE respectively, the 656 TPE advantage Arizona holds in just the Wide Receiver position is more than enough to cover those. Look for Arizona to win this matchup.Austin Copperheads @ Orange County Otters
This last matchup is one of the closer ones this week, and Orange County holds the total advantage by 1420 TPE, and in skill positions in 6 of the 11 positions. With a league-leading Safety group (3634 TPE), it’s not surprising that Orange County holds the advantage, but it’s by one of the largest margins we’ve seen so far, a 1933 TPE advantage over the Austin group. Orange County also holds a 1073 TPE advantage in the Defensive Tackle position, not entirely surprising given that Austin’s Max TPE player in the Defensive Tackle spot only has 495 TPE. I’m going with Orange County in this matchup, especially since they hold a home-field advantage alongside the TPE advantage.
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