04-06-2021, 10:15 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2021, 02:21 AM by Asked Madden.)
"If only we had stopped them on that 3rd down."
"If only we hadn't missed that field goal."
"If only we didn't have that late turnover."
These are common phrases spouted out by scorned users who just saw their team lose by a single score. How different would the season have gone if the result of a game was flipped? Are there teams who always seem to be locked in close games? Let's see how the Season 27 regular season would have finished with one score games flipped in the NSFC.
*I took all the results from S27 and flipped any game that finished by a margin of 8 points or less (didn't look into the data but it seems like 2 PT Conversions are converted at a fairly high rate). If a team won by 8 or less that result was flipped to a loss and if a team loss by 8 or less that result was flipped to a win.
ASFC EDITION <link to article
Baltimore Hawks
The Hawks had a ROUGH S27. The team had some management changes and the roster was gutted. The team didn't put up a fight in most games on their way to a 0-16 finish.
Could they get a decent record if one score games were flipped?
A few games flipped would've still locked up the #1 pick for Baltimore but they wouldn't have gone winless. Instead of 0-16 they would've limped to the finish line with a 3-13 record but sweeping Philadelphia to have some bragging rights. Baltimore had the lowest amount of flipped games in either conference with only 3 games flipping resulting in 3 wins and 0 losses.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
Berlin didn't have the same early success as it's sister expansion New York but the team had a solid foundation going into S27. They weren't expected to compete for the playoffs but a lot of people saw them finishing around 8-8. The team was close at 6-10 just falling short of the 8 win mark.
Could they reach that 8-8 mark if they had some game results flipped?
Berlin would have seen no change in their record with games flipped. The Fire Salamanders would still have finished with a 6-10 record. Berlin had 6 games flip with a result of 3 wins and 3 losses.
Chicago Butchers
Chicago was expected to be one of the best teams in the league last year and a lot of people picked them to win it all. The Butchers didn't disappoint in the regular season as they compiled a 12-4 record and the #2 seed in the NSFC.
Would Chicago still boast such a great record with close games being flipped?
Just like with Berlin, Chicago's record would not have changed. The Butchers would still finish with a 12-4 record. Chicago had half of their games finish with a 1 score margin. The 8 games flipped resulted in 4 wins and 4 losses.
Colorado Yeti
The Yeti continued being one of the best teams in the league and were able to sneak into the playoffs with a 10-5-1 record with a Week 16 tie and a loss by Yellowknife. The Yeti were even able to pull an upset over #2 Chicago before being bested in the Championship game by Sarasota.
If the games were flipped would they still be making a Championship game appearance?
When I said Colorado was able to sneak into the playoffs I meant it. They just managed to eek out a few close wins to get that 10-5-1 record but with the games flipped they fell to 7-8-1. The Yeti had a total of 7 games flip with a result of 2 wins and 5 losses.
Philadelphia Liberty
Being a member of the Liberty, we lost a lot of close games last year. This was the whole reason I approached this series. We kept saying in the locker room "We're so close, if we just could've had 1 or 2 plays go our way." The Liberty had a respectable S27 finishing at 6-10 in the second year of their roster overhaul and kept up with the big dogs in the league.
The Liberty played up to their competition but would flipping games have really made a difference?
The Liberty would have seen a nice increase in their record going from 6-10 to 9-7. The Liberty played an absurd amount of 1 score games... 11 in total the most out of either conference. This resulted in 7 wins and 4 losses after the flips. Philadelphia had a lot of close calls in S27.
Sarasota Sailfish
The Sailfish were very hyped up going into S27, they had been a team on the rise for the last few seasons and were expected to make waves. Sarasota tied for the best record in the league with Chicago at 12-4. They had the tiebreaker and received the #1 seed in the NSFC on the way to an Ultimus win over New Orleans.
Would they still have a chance at the Ultimus with games being flipped?
Sarasota saw a decent decrease in their record going from 12-4 to 10-6. They were still able to hold onto a winning record but definitely weren't able to garner that top seed in the NSFC. The Sailfish played a lot of 1 score games with a total of 10 games being flipped. The results were 4 wins and 6 losses.
Yellowknife Wraiths
The defending champs from S26 were looking to win back to back championships. The Wraiths had a good season finishing at 10-6 but just missed out on the playoffs after Colorado bested them with a 10-5-1 record.
Could the Wraiths have had a chance to defend their title with games flipped?
Just like Sarasota, Yellowknife would have seen their record decrease by 3 wins. The Wraiths would have gone from 10-6 to 7-9. The Wraiths had about a third of their games finish within 1 score with 5 games beings flipped. This resulted in 1 win and 4 losses.
Playoffs
The playoff picture who have been altered slightly with 1 score games flipping results.
Chicago would have moved up to the #1 seed with games being flipped. Sarasota would have moved down from #1 to #2. Colorado would have fallen out of the playoffs completely. The Liberty would have moved all the way up to the #3 seed.
Overall Look
Overall only one playoff team would have changed with Philadelphia getting in and Colorado missing out. Baltimore and Philadelphia tied for biggest increase with 3 wins. There were two teams that tied for biggest decrease at 3 being Colorado and Yellowknife.
Philadelphia and Sarasota combined for 21 one score games. We'll see if they continue to play close games in S28.
Berlin and Chicago both had their records stay the same but had a big difference in the amount of games flipped. Berlin only having 3 while Chicago had 8.
The NSFC was expected to have a bit more parity in S28 (excluding a blown up Baltimore team) it'll be interesting to see what happens when S28 is revisited.
I look forward to all of you commenting on errors in this thread and I appreciate you reading my articles.
"If only we hadn't missed that field goal."
"If only we didn't have that late turnover."
These are common phrases spouted out by scorned users who just saw their team lose by a single score. How different would the season have gone if the result of a game was flipped? Are there teams who always seem to be locked in close games? Let's see how the Season 27 regular season would have finished with one score games flipped in the NSFC.
*I took all the results from S27 and flipped any game that finished by a margin of 8 points or less (didn't look into the data but it seems like 2 PT Conversions are converted at a fairly high rate). If a team won by 8 or less that result was flipped to a loss and if a team loss by 8 or less that result was flipped to a win.
ASFC EDITION <link to article
Baltimore Hawks
The Hawks had a ROUGH S27. The team had some management changes and the roster was gutted. The team didn't put up a fight in most games on their way to a 0-16 finish.
Could they get a decent record if one score games were flipped?
A few games flipped would've still locked up the #1 pick for Baltimore but they wouldn't have gone winless. Instead of 0-16 they would've limped to the finish line with a 3-13 record but sweeping Philadelphia to have some bragging rights. Baltimore had the lowest amount of flipped games in either conference with only 3 games flipping resulting in 3 wins and 0 losses.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
Berlin didn't have the same early success as it's sister expansion New York but the team had a solid foundation going into S27. They weren't expected to compete for the playoffs but a lot of people saw them finishing around 8-8. The team was close at 6-10 just falling short of the 8 win mark.
Could they reach that 8-8 mark if they had some game results flipped?
Berlin would have seen no change in their record with games flipped. The Fire Salamanders would still have finished with a 6-10 record. Berlin had 6 games flip with a result of 3 wins and 3 losses.
Chicago Butchers
Chicago was expected to be one of the best teams in the league last year and a lot of people picked them to win it all. The Butchers didn't disappoint in the regular season as they compiled a 12-4 record and the #2 seed in the NSFC.
Would Chicago still boast such a great record with close games being flipped?
Just like with Berlin, Chicago's record would not have changed. The Butchers would still finish with a 12-4 record. Chicago had half of their games finish with a 1 score margin. The 8 games flipped resulted in 4 wins and 4 losses.
Colorado Yeti
The Yeti continued being one of the best teams in the league and were able to sneak into the playoffs with a 10-5-1 record with a Week 16 tie and a loss by Yellowknife. The Yeti were even able to pull an upset over #2 Chicago before being bested in the Championship game by Sarasota.
If the games were flipped would they still be making a Championship game appearance?
When I said Colorado was able to sneak into the playoffs I meant it. They just managed to eek out a few close wins to get that 10-5-1 record but with the games flipped they fell to 7-8-1. The Yeti had a total of 7 games flip with a result of 2 wins and 5 losses.
Philadelphia Liberty
Being a member of the Liberty, we lost a lot of close games last year. This was the whole reason I approached this series. We kept saying in the locker room "We're so close, if we just could've had 1 or 2 plays go our way." The Liberty had a respectable S27 finishing at 6-10 in the second year of their roster overhaul and kept up with the big dogs in the league.
The Liberty played up to their competition but would flipping games have really made a difference?
The Liberty would have seen a nice increase in their record going from 6-10 to 9-7. The Liberty played an absurd amount of 1 score games... 11 in total the most out of either conference. This resulted in 7 wins and 4 losses after the flips. Philadelphia had a lot of close calls in S27.
Sarasota Sailfish
The Sailfish were very hyped up going into S27, they had been a team on the rise for the last few seasons and were expected to make waves. Sarasota tied for the best record in the league with Chicago at 12-4. They had the tiebreaker and received the #1 seed in the NSFC on the way to an Ultimus win over New Orleans.
Would they still have a chance at the Ultimus with games being flipped?
Sarasota saw a decent decrease in their record going from 12-4 to 10-6. They were still able to hold onto a winning record but definitely weren't able to garner that top seed in the NSFC. The Sailfish played a lot of 1 score games with a total of 10 games being flipped. The results were 4 wins and 6 losses.
Yellowknife Wraiths
The defending champs from S26 were looking to win back to back championships. The Wraiths had a good season finishing at 10-6 but just missed out on the playoffs after Colorado bested them with a 10-5-1 record.
Could the Wraiths have had a chance to defend their title with games flipped?
Just like Sarasota, Yellowknife would have seen their record decrease by 3 wins. The Wraiths would have gone from 10-6 to 7-9. The Wraiths had about a third of their games finish within 1 score with 5 games beings flipped. This resulted in 1 win and 4 losses.
Playoffs
The playoff picture who have been altered slightly with 1 score games flipping results.
Chicago would have moved up to the #1 seed with games being flipped. Sarasota would have moved down from #1 to #2. Colorado would have fallen out of the playoffs completely. The Liberty would have moved all the way up to the #3 seed.
Overall Look
Overall only one playoff team would have changed with Philadelphia getting in and Colorado missing out. Baltimore and Philadelphia tied for biggest increase with 3 wins. There were two teams that tied for biggest decrease at 3 being Colorado and Yellowknife.
Philadelphia and Sarasota combined for 21 one score games. We'll see if they continue to play close games in S28.
Berlin and Chicago both had their records stay the same but had a big difference in the amount of games flipped. Berlin only having 3 while Chicago had 8.
The NSFC was expected to have a bit more parity in S28 (excluding a blown up Baltimore team) it'll be interesting to see what happens when S28 is revisited.
I look forward to all of you commenting on errors in this thread and I appreciate you reading my articles.