"If only we had stopped them on that 3rd down."
"If only we hadn't missed that field goal."
"If only we didn't have that late turnover."
These are common phrases spouted out by scorned users who just saw their team lose by a single score. How different would the season have gone if the result of a game was flipped? Are there teams who always seem to be locked in close games? Let's see how the Season 27 regular season would have finished with one score games flipped in the ASFC.
*I took all the results from S27 and flipped any game that finished by a margin of 8 points or less (didn't look into the data but it seems like 2 PT Conversions are converted at a fairly high rate). If a team won by 8 or less that result was flipped to a loss and if a team loss by 8 or less that result was flipped to a win.
Arizona Outlaws
The Outlaws had a very successful year in S27. They finished up with an 11-5 record on their way to the #2 seed in the ASFC. Even though they had a first round exit against New Orleans, it was still a great season out in the desert.
Let's take a look at how Arizona's season would have went if their close games were flipped:
Arizona would have ended up with a middle of the road season at 8-8 if their 1 score games had flipped. The Outlaws had a total of 5 games flip with 1 win and 4 losses out of those flips.
Austin Copperheads
I really liked the Copperheads coming into Season 27. As a matter of fact I picked them to finish 1st in the ASFC and boy was I wrong. The finished dead last in the division with a 3-13 record.
Let's see how Austin's season would have changed with a flipped result in 1 score games.
Austin had a huge change in fortunes flipping the 1 score games. The Copperheads were able to move up to an 8-8 record. Austin had 7 games that flipped resulting in 6 wins and 1 loss. This team played a lot of close games and the season could've changed dramatically if they went the other way.
Honolulu Hahalua
The biggest surprise of Season 27 was in no doubt the Hahalua. After finishing Season 26 with a 3-13 record Honolulu wasn't expected to do much better in Season 27. However the vastly exceeded expectations and compiled an 11-4-1 record and the #1 seed in the ASFC where they lost in the Championship game to New Orleans.
Would their season have been changed much if their close games were flipped?
Honolulu basically stayed the same after having close games flipped with only having their win total decrease by 1 to finish at 10-5-1. Honolulu had a total of 5 games flip with 2 wins and 3 losses. This team would still have had a great season.
New Orleans Secondline
New Orleans had an above average season notching 9 wins and earning the #3 seed in the ASFC, but they rode that 3 seed all the way to the Ultimus before falling to Sarasota. It was a great season for a team many expected to be middle of the pack.
If the games were flipped would they still have that Cinderella playoff run?
New Orleans saw their season slightly improve from a 9-7 record to a 10-6 record. The Secondline had an astonishing 10 games that were within 1 score and the results flipped. This resulted in 6 wins and 4 losses. This team definitely gave their users heart attacks.
New York Silverbacks
After coming out of nowhere in S26 to earn the #1 seed in the ASFC, there was a ton of hype for the Silverbacks heading into Season 27. I thought they would carry that momentum into another playoff appearance. They did not make the playoffs after slipping to a 7-9 record.
Was it close games that kept them out of the playoffs? Let's take a look at their flipped results.
New York played in a lot of games with two score margins. The Silverbacks went down 2 wins to finish at 5-11. They had the lowest amount of games flipped with only 4 contests. This resulted in 1 win and 3 losses.
Orange County Otters
The Otters were a team that JUST squeaked into the playoffs in Season 26. A lot of people liked the Otters to continue their consecutive playoff run and make it yet again in S27. However, the Otters would stumble to the finish with a 6-10 record.
Would the run of playoff appearances have continued if results were flipped?
The Otters saw a slight increase in their record going from 6-10 to 8-8. Orange County had a lot of close games finishing with 7 that were within 1 score. This resulted in 5 wins and 2 losses for the Otters.
San Jose SaberCats
Even though San Jose had won back to back Ultimus trophies in S24 & S25 and just missed out on the playoffs in S26 there wasn't a lot of hype to them coming into S27. Their recent records hadn't really blown anyone away S24 (9-7) S25 (9-7) S26 (8-8). They matched their S26 record and finished up S27 at 8-8 as well.
Would they escape the 8-9 win mark if their 1 game results were flipped?
San Jose had a lot of close games they narrowly won in S27. With the flip the SaberCats saw their record decrease from 8-8 to 6-10. The SaberCats had the second most one score games in the ASFC with 8. This resulted in 3 wins and 5 losses.
Playoffs
The playoff picture who have been altered slightly with 1 score games flipping results.
Honolulu would still have finished with the #1 seed at 10-5-1 and New Orleans would've moved up to the #2 seed at 10-6. The Otters streak would have continued as they clinched the #3 at 8-8 with a couple head to head tie breakers over Arizona & Austin.
Overall Look
Overall only one playoff team would have changed with Orange County getting in and Arizona missing out. Austin saw the biggest increase with 5 wins and Arizona saw the biggest decrease with 3 losses.
New Orleans and San Jose like to keep their games close as the combined for 18 one score games. We'll see if they continue that trend in S28.
The Silverbacks had the lowest one score games at 4. It'll be interesting to see if their results tighten up in S28.
With how much parity we've seen in the ASFC the last few season I cannot wait to revisit this conference once Season 28 concludes.
I look forward to all of you commenting on errors in this thread and I will post NSFC soon.
"If only we hadn't missed that field goal."
"If only we didn't have that late turnover."
These are common phrases spouted out by scorned users who just saw their team lose by a single score. How different would the season have gone if the result of a game was flipped? Are there teams who always seem to be locked in close games? Let's see how the Season 27 regular season would have finished with one score games flipped in the ASFC.
*I took all the results from S27 and flipped any game that finished by a margin of 8 points or less (didn't look into the data but it seems like 2 PT Conversions are converted at a fairly high rate). If a team won by 8 or less that result was flipped to a loss and if a team loss by 8 or less that result was flipped to a win.
Arizona Outlaws
The Outlaws had a very successful year in S27. They finished up with an 11-5 record on their way to the #2 seed in the ASFC. Even though they had a first round exit against New Orleans, it was still a great season out in the desert.
Let's take a look at how Arizona's season would have went if their close games were flipped:
Arizona would have ended up with a middle of the road season at 8-8 if their 1 score games had flipped. The Outlaws had a total of 5 games flip with 1 win and 4 losses out of those flips.
Austin Copperheads
I really liked the Copperheads coming into Season 27. As a matter of fact I picked them to finish 1st in the ASFC and boy was I wrong. The finished dead last in the division with a 3-13 record.
Let's see how Austin's season would have changed with a flipped result in 1 score games.
Austin had a huge change in fortunes flipping the 1 score games. The Copperheads were able to move up to an 8-8 record. Austin had 7 games that flipped resulting in 6 wins and 1 loss. This team played a lot of close games and the season could've changed dramatically if they went the other way.
Honolulu Hahalua
The biggest surprise of Season 27 was in no doubt the Hahalua. After finishing Season 26 with a 3-13 record Honolulu wasn't expected to do much better in Season 27. However the vastly exceeded expectations and compiled an 11-4-1 record and the #1 seed in the ASFC where they lost in the Championship game to New Orleans.
Would their season have been changed much if their close games were flipped?
Honolulu basically stayed the same after having close games flipped with only having their win total decrease by 1 to finish at 10-5-1. Honolulu had a total of 5 games flip with 2 wins and 3 losses. This team would still have had a great season.
New Orleans Secondline
New Orleans had an above average season notching 9 wins and earning the #3 seed in the ASFC, but they rode that 3 seed all the way to the Ultimus before falling to Sarasota. It was a great season for a team many expected to be middle of the pack.
If the games were flipped would they still have that Cinderella playoff run?
New Orleans saw their season slightly improve from a 9-7 record to a 10-6 record. The Secondline had an astonishing 10 games that were within 1 score and the results flipped. This resulted in 6 wins and 4 losses. This team definitely gave their users heart attacks.
New York Silverbacks
After coming out of nowhere in S26 to earn the #1 seed in the ASFC, there was a ton of hype for the Silverbacks heading into Season 27. I thought they would carry that momentum into another playoff appearance. They did not make the playoffs after slipping to a 7-9 record.
Was it close games that kept them out of the playoffs? Let's take a look at their flipped results.
New York played in a lot of games with two score margins. The Silverbacks went down 2 wins to finish at 5-11. They had the lowest amount of games flipped with only 4 contests. This resulted in 1 win and 3 losses.
Orange County Otters
The Otters were a team that JUST squeaked into the playoffs in Season 26. A lot of people liked the Otters to continue their consecutive playoff run and make it yet again in S27. However, the Otters would stumble to the finish with a 6-10 record.
Would the run of playoff appearances have continued if results were flipped?
The Otters saw a slight increase in their record going from 6-10 to 8-8. Orange County had a lot of close games finishing with 7 that were within 1 score. This resulted in 5 wins and 2 losses for the Otters.
San Jose SaberCats
Even though San Jose had won back to back Ultimus trophies in S24 & S25 and just missed out on the playoffs in S26 there wasn't a lot of hype to them coming into S27. Their recent records hadn't really blown anyone away S24 (9-7) S25 (9-7) S26 (8-8). They matched their S26 record and finished up S27 at 8-8 as well.
Would they escape the 8-9 win mark if their 1 game results were flipped?
San Jose had a lot of close games they narrowly won in S27. With the flip the SaberCats saw their record decrease from 8-8 to 6-10. The SaberCats had the second most one score games in the ASFC with 8. This resulted in 3 wins and 5 losses.
Playoffs
The playoff picture who have been altered slightly with 1 score games flipping results.
Honolulu would still have finished with the #1 seed at 10-5-1 and New Orleans would've moved up to the #2 seed at 10-6. The Otters streak would have continued as they clinched the #3 at 8-8 with a couple head to head tie breakers over Arizona & Austin.
Overall Look
Overall only one playoff team would have changed with Orange County getting in and Arizona missing out. Austin saw the biggest increase with 5 wins and Arizona saw the biggest decrease with 3 losses.
New Orleans and San Jose like to keep their games close as the combined for 18 one score games. We'll see if they continue that trend in S28.
The Silverbacks had the lowest one score games at 4. It'll be interesting to see if their results tighten up in S28.
With how much parity we've seen in the ASFC the last few season I cannot wait to revisit this conference once Season 28 concludes.
I look forward to all of you commenting on errors in this thread and I will post NSFC soon.