First Introduction
The last time I published a write-up of my power rankings was Week 2. Its been a while and I’ve been falling behind getting them out because I’m in the middle of another move. Instead of letting them fall by the wayside I’ve gone ahead and finished each individual week. This does require a disclaimer - my introductions and disclaimers following this one may seem oddly disjointed timeline wise. For example, the introduction under this one - “Second Introduction” - I wrote April 3rd. I’m writing this April 9th. Everything may seem a bit behind but the rankings should be true to scale.
Second Introduction
Yesterday was my last day at my old job. We had a little gathering in the conference room and they bought me cupcakes which was super sweet. The problem is they bought way too many cupcakes. I’ve still got a box of a solid six or seven cupcakes. We’re talking about the kind with the super rich, premium cake part and piles of icing. They’re awesome. They’re also sugar bombs, so I’m riding an incredible sugar high at 10 AM on a Saturday because I decided they’d make a great breakfast. These power rankings are going to end up a bit spastic as a result.
Quick Methodology Recap
Four inputs:
Strength of Victory
Pythagorean/Linear Wins
Point Differential
Elo
All are placed onto a relative scale - i.e. the team with the #1 mark has 100 and the team with the team with the #14 mark has 1 and then everyone is stretched onto that scale relative to how far apart their score is from those two poles. All that is then plugged into the following equation:
RelativeSoV*.25 + RelativePythLinWins*.25 + RelativePD*.25 + RelativeElo*.25
That spits out a raw number and then I put that raw number on the same relative scale as I put the inputs on. For the first time in these rankings I finally have enough data to comfortable use the strength of victory calculation. This made the rankings swing a bit more than I’d probably like in a vacuum but also helped them fit to the season results a bit better.
Week 3 and Week 4 Rankings
To be fully transparent the sheet I pull these from auto-updates after I put in data. I could’ve written Week 3 and Week 4 separately but I decided to combine them both into one for the sake of brevity and because I didn’t realize I wasn’t going to be able to pull Week 3 data until I had already fully updated the inputs.
Tier 1 - Our New Overlords
Berlin Fire Salamanders
Week 2 Ranking: 3rd
Week 2 Raw Score: 69.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 77
Week 4 Raw Score: 93
Week 4 Relative Score: 100
Its amazing how much being 4-0 will fuel a rise up the rankings. The Fire Salamanders look incredible after the first four games. Their ELO ranking has shot up as they’ve continued to win games. They currently hold the 5th overall spot in my elo calculations, behind only Sarasota, Honolulu, Chicago, and Arizona - three teams who are still riding a bit of a high from their spike in elo last season. With four wins against four strong teams - none have losing records on the season - Berlin has the second highest strength of victory calculation on the season as well. A matchup against a sneaky good Baltimore Hawks team in Week 5 might end up being a trap game, however I’m personally confident the engine that is this Berlin team is going to keep chugging forward.
Tier 2 - Can’t Keep Them Down
Sarasota Sailfish
Week 2 Ranking: 10th
Week 2 Raw Score: 51.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 50
Week 4 Raw Score: 83.25
Week 4 Relative Score: 90
This is a huge shoot up the board for the Sailfish. There are two big factors fueling their rise. First, its still so early in the season that just maintaining an average record (2-2) is enough to keep them in the hunt. Second, swapping over to to strength of victory as an input instead of strength of schedule was a huge help for the Sailfish. They don’t have the highest strength of victory but they did have the lowest strength of schedule. The swap normalizes them a bit. Their ELO ranking is still riding the high after their Ultimus title - its the best in the league by around 50 points. The Sailfish haven’t gone away after their championship last season and seem to be firmly in the hunt for a repeat this year. A matchup with the Liberty on the road in Week 5 can continue to solidify their spot atop the rankings.
Tier 3 - Don’t Blink, They Might be #1 Soon
New York Silverbacks
Week 2 Ranking: 4th
Week 2 Raw Score: 68.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 76
Week 4 Raw Score: 78
Week 4 Relative Score: 84
The Silverbacks continue a steady climb up the rankings this season. They’re still building their elo up after finishing fairly low in the rankings for it last season - they just passed the 1500 threshold which is a huge accomplishment. They’re tied for third in the league in pythagorean/linear wins because of their solid +18 point differential thus far on the season. Their strength of victory calculation is also solidly in the middle of the league right now. This team is for real - their one loss is by one point to the Fire Salamanders - and they continue to produce results no matter who is in front of them. They’re entering a rough stretch of games from Week 5 to Week 7, so continuing this current level of success during that period would do incredible things and potentially vault them to #1 in these rankings.
Arizona Outlaws
Week 2 Ranking: 8th
Week 2 Raw Score: 58.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 60
Week 4 Raw Score: 74
Week 4 Relative Score: 80
Arizona is riding a bit of a high after two big wins against the Otters in Week 3 and Second Line in Week 4 see their season swing back to a level of expected normalcy. Their elo ranking is still incredibly strong, continuing to hover in the high 1500s because of a strong performance in Season 27. The rest of their metrics are also quite high, excluding strength of victory which is around the middle of the pack since they’ve gotten to play a winless team - the Second Line - in their first four games which brings the ranking down. A win on the road in Week 5 against the Sabercats would help this team maintain the slow climb up the rankings after a less than ideal start to their season.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Week 2 Ranking: 6th
Week 2 Raw Score: 65
Week 2 Relative Score: 71
Week 4 Raw Score: 72.25
Week 4 Relative Score: 78
The Wraiths are another team that are seeing themselves slowly creep back up the power rankings. They started the season on the pole after blowing out the Yeti and have normalized a bit towards the middle of the pack since after two losses to the Fire Salamanders in Week 2 and the Sailfish in Week 3. Beating the Sabercats in Week 4 was huge for the Wraiths who might’ve found themselves a bit lower otherwise. They're still riding the high caused by their big win in Week 1 which is keeping them afloat right now. A big matchup on the road against the Butchers awaits in Week 5 - a win could shoot the Wraiths back up towards where they were after the first week of the season.
Chicago Butchers
Week 2 Ranking: 1st
Week 2 Raw Score: 84.5
Week 2 Relative Score: 100
Week 4 Raw Score: 69.25
Week 4 Relative Score: 75
Man oh man the Butchers tumbled down quite a bit after being #1 in the last edition of these rankings. Losses to the Liberty in Week 3 and the Yeti in Week 4 will do that to a team. The internal metrics for the Butchers are still strong which is why they’re still in the upper half of the league, however a matchup against the Wraiths in Week 5 will determine whether they deserve to be this high or its an artificial boost because of historical performance.
Tier 4 - Surging, But Old Metrics Hurt Them + Honolulu
Philadelphia Liberty
Week 2 Ranking: 9th
Week 2 Raw Score: 52
Week 2 Relative Score: 51
Week 4 Raw Score: 66.25
Week 4 Relative Score: 71
The Liberty had an inverted score in the Week 2 edition of these rankings and have seen that swap now as they plow up the board. A win on the road over the Butchers in Week 3 really helped their stock in this edition, and taking care of business against the Hawks only furthered that boost. Their internal metrics are good besides their elo which is still a bit low after their performance last season. A win against the Sailfish in Week 5 would boost Philadelphia into the next tier on these rankings.
Honolulu Hahalua
Week 2 Ranking: 2nd
Week 2 Raw Score: 76.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 88
Week 4 Raw Score: 65
Week 4 Relative Score: 70
The Hahalua are another team that saw themselves tumble down the board between Week 2 and Week 4. They didn’t perform badly during that time but other teams picked up multiple wins which helped them outpace the Hahalua gains. The biggest issue with Honolulu thus far is that their strength of victory is quite low in comparison to the rest of their rankings - a byproduct of playing a winless team early in the season. They need to keep winning games - and hopefully by substantial margins as their point differential is suffering as well - to keep pace in these rankings.
Austin Copperheads
Week 2 Ranking: 12th
Week 2 Raw Score: 44.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 39
Week 4 Raw Score: 64
Week 4 Relative Score: 69
The Copperheads are similar to the Liberty in that their performance from Season 27 is pushing them down the board a bit. Their internal metrics are great - good pythagorean/linear win totals and good point differential - but their elo ranking is still suffering from last season and their strength of victory is suffering from having two wins against winless teams in their first four games. If Austin can continue to beat the team thats in front of them each week - starting with the Silverbacks in Week 5 - they’ll begin to shoot up these rankings rapidly.
Tier 5 - Just a Tier
Orange County Otters
Week 2 Ranking: 11th
Week 2 Raw Score: 50.5
Week 2 Relative Score: 49
Week 4 Raw Score: 58.75
Week 4 Relative Score: 63
The Otters are by no means a bad team. Like many, they’re still suffering from poor performance in Season 27 which is bringing down their elo rankings. Their wins thus far haven’t been enough to offset the losses which have been bigger margins in the point differential camp. They have played one of the tougher schedules thus far, however, and a big win against the Copperheads in Week 4 helps them be right on the fringe of the middle of the pack teams. Continuing to handle business in a matchup against the Hahalua in Week 5 will be huge for Orange County.
Colorado Yeti
Week 2 Ranking: 14th
Week 2 Raw Score: 19
Week 2 Relative Score: 1
Week 4 Raw Score: 45.25
Week 4 Relative Score: 49
The Yeti escaped the basement in this edition of the rankings. Similar to the Otters, they aren’t a bad team. A Week 1 blowout loss to the Wraiths followed up by a Week 2 loss to the Sailfish has hurt their ranking thus far. Their strength of victory is still quite low as they got to play a winless team in their first four games, however the rest of their metrics are recovering - even point differential - due to some quality “sized” wins since then. New Orleans awaits the Yeti in Week 5. A loss there would be disastrous.
New Orleans Second Line
Week 2 Ranking: 7th
Week 2 Raw Score: 64.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 70
Week 4 Raw Score: 27.5
Week 4 Relative Score: 29
The Second Line are struggling thus far. Riding an elo high after an Ultimus appearance last season has continually kept their ranking artificially inflated, however after starting 0-4 their beginning to drop down the board. Their pythagorean/linear win ranking is very bad, a byproduct of a low point differential that stems from four big losses thus far on the season. The Second Line need to right the ship in Week 5 against the Yeti or they’ll potentially drop even lower in these rankings.
San Jose Sabercats
Week 2 Ranking: 5th
Week 2 Raw Score: 67.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 75
Week 4 Raw Score: 23.5
Week 4 Relative Score: 25
The Sabercats aren’t a bad team at all. They’re unlucky that they got such a difficult early season schedule, however. After taking care of business in Week 1 against the Second Line they got the Silverbacks, Hahalua, and Wraiths back-to-back-to-back. None of those three teams are bad, however three losses and a single win against a winless team tanks a team’s strength of victory. If the Sabercats can turn their record around in Week 5 against the Outlaws they’ll normalize towards the middle of the pack.
Baltimore Hawks
Week 2 Ranking: 13th
Week 2 Raw Score: 37.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 20
Week 4 Raw Score: 1
Week 4 Relative Score: 1
The Hawks take over the bottom spot from the Yeti in this edition of the rankings. They’re a much better team that many people anticipated, however they aren’t quite “there” yet. Keeping games close is great but they need to pick up some wins to scale the rankings again. A win against the Fire Salamanders in Week 5 would not only play spoiler to Berlin’s perfect season thus far but shoot the Hawks back up the board.
Week 5 and Week 6 Rankings
Tier 1 - The Solidifying Top
Sarasota Sailfish
Week 3/4 Ranking: 2nd
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 83.25
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 90
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 92
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 100
Another iteration of the power rankings, another team at the top of the board. I’m sure a handful of people are wondering how Sarasota is #1 and not Berlin when the Fire Salamanders are undefeated. Sarasota is riding a huge elo high from Season 27. Right now my calculation has them at 1673 which is 50 higher than the next closest team (Arizona). For reference, Berlin is at 1598, which is good but when put on the 1 to 100 scale I normalize everything to drops them a bit below Sarasota. My model also likes Sarasota’s point differential (+81 compared to +61) a bit more and as a result their pythagorean/linear win amount is also scaled higher. This boost for Sarasota does come off two wins that were probably expected - Week 5 on the road against Philadelphia and Week 6 at home against Baltimore - however just because a win is expected doesn’t mean a team isn’t going to benefit from it. There’s a sweet spot where a team gets a boost for taking care of business, albeit a small one. Week 7 at home against Honolulu is an important game for the Sailfish - a win really does solidify them at #1 in 99.99% of situations.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
Week 3/4 Ranking: 1st
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 93
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 100
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 87.25
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 95
I know the question I’m going to get asked: how did a team end up #1 in the rankings last set, win both their games, and drop? The answer lies in the underlying metrics. Berlin is still a great team, however Sarasota is beginning to outpace them in terms of point differential which is a huge factor in a lot of the backend inputs. A lot of that boost for the Sailfish comes from a big blowout win against Philadelphia, but it still counts. Berlin being up this high is a testament to how quickly their winning streak has boosted their elo ranking. If they keep winning they’ll keep nipping on Sarasota’s heels.
Tier 2 - The First Drop
Arizona Outlaws
Week 3/4 Ranking: 4th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 74
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 80
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 81.75
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 89
Arizona keeps climbing. Their point differential is an incredible +65 on the year which is second in the league behind only Sarasota. That keeps them ahead of some of the competition in their conference - such as Austin. Their strength of victory isn’t that high - its one of the lowest of any contenders, however if they keep producing wins they’ll knock that score up a bit. Week 7 against the Silverbacks will be important for extending their lead and boosting that strength of victory metric since the Silverbacks have a positive record on the year.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Week 3/4 Ranking: 5th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 72.25
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 78
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 80.25
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 88
The Wraiths keep chuggin along this year, slowly working their way up towards the top of the board. After blowing out the Yeti in Week 1 they struggled a bit with two losses after that but have rebounded with three straight wins including two blowouts in Week 4 and Week 6. That’s stretched their point differential out a bit to +56 which keeps them strongly towards the top tier of the league. Week 7 against the Hawks is a trap game for the Wraiths, however if they can handle the matchup they should ride into the halfway point of the season in the top 5.
Austin Copperheads
Week 3/4 Ranking: 9th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 64
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 69
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 74.5
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 81
Austin continues to climb up the rankings. The only thing slowing them is their elo ranking which is up to 1553 with my calculations right now. A few more wins - especially wins on the road - and they’ll pass most of the teams in front of them (Yellowknife is at 1592 for example) and slide into the top 3 of these rankings assuming they can maintain strong point differential fueled metrics. Week 7 on the road against the Sabercats won’t be a cakewalk, however a win serves as a launching point to propel Austin even further up the board.
Orange County Otters
Week 3/4 Ranking: 10th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 58.75
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 63
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 66.25
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 75
Orange County is really in a tier of their own right now. Their point fueled metrics - pythagorean/linear wins, point differential, etc. - are only middle of the pack and their elo isn’t outstanding, however they have the highest strength of victory rating by a mile which pushes them this high up the board. That high strength of victory rating is mostly fueled by not having played either Baltimore or New Orleans yet, however, and since they get New Orleans in Week 7 that ranking should normalize a bit which means Orange County may slide down the board a bit even with a win.
Tier 3 - Contenders?
Chicago Butchers
Week 3/4 Ranking: 6th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 69.25
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 75
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 60
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 65
Continuing to lose is really hurting the Butchers. Their elo ranking has fallen to 1537 which is about middle of the pack for the league. The rest of their metrics all clock in at around the 50 mark which solidifies them even further as league average thus far this year. A Week 7 matchup on the road against Berlin is a brutal game to be staring down the barrel at, however a win would right the ship immediately for Chicago.
New York Silverbacks
Week 3/4 Ranking: 3rd
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 68.75
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 76
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 54.5
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 59
Losing to Austin in Week 5 didn’t help the Silverbacks much at all, dropping their elo rating a substantial bit which sees them fall down the board. They keep winning for the most part, however none of their wins are blowouts which isn’t helping their point differential at all. It currently sits at a -2, making them the highest team in the rankings with a negative point differential. A Week 7 matchup against the Outlaws is huge for New York. A win will help solidify their elo and fix their point differential, a loss could send them tumbling.
Honolulu Hahalua
Week 3/4 Ranking: 8th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 65
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 70
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 43.25
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 47
Like Chicago, Honolulu continues to lose and continues to slide down the board. Their last two games saw them not even break into double digit points which has killed their point differential - it clocks in at a -36. Honolulu needs to rebound with a win in Week 7 and put points on the board or they’ll slide even closer to the bottom in those metrics. The Sailfish await, which won’t be an easy matchup.
Colorado Yeti
Week 3/4 Ranking: 11th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 45.25
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 49
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 39.75
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 43
The Yeti continue to move up the board in terms of ranking, however their raw metrics continue to slide. A 12 point loss to the Fire Salamanders in Week 6 almost doubled their point differential deficit going into the week - dropping them to -26 - which is hurting most of the point fueled metrics. A win at home against the Liberty in Week 7 is crucial to fixing that differential which should slingshot them up towards the middle of the pack.
Tier 4 - Might Not Be Their Year
San Jose Sabercats
Week 3/4 Ranking: 13th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 23.5
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 25
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 31.75
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 34
A win in Week 6 boosted the Sabercats up from #13 to #11 and improved their raw metrics pretty significantly since the road win boosted their elo by a nice chunk. They need to fix their -51 point differential before they can move any further up the board, however. A Week 7 matchup against the Copperheads won’t be easy, however if they can pull out some more magic like they did in Week 6 we could be talking about a top half of the league team here come next week.
New Orleans Second Line
Week 3/4 Ranking: 12th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 27.5
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 29
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 22.75
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 24
No movement up or down the board for the Second Line this week as they remain winless. The raw/relative score metrics continue to dip, however they aren’t in that bad of a place thus far. Although they’re winless they have a better point differential than the Sabercats who are above them this week in the rankings. If they can steal a win on the road against the Otters in Week 7 they can push their way up the board just a tad. Keeping games close is keeping them in the race for rankings.
Philadelphia Liberty
Week 3/4 Ranking: 7th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 66.25
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 71
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 20.25
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 22
Two huge losses in Week 5 and Week 6 really tanked the Liberty in this week’s set of rankings. A -73 point differential is the second worst in the league, only -11 better than the league-worst Hawks (-84). Their elo continues to dip, clocking it at 1394 this week which is also the second lowest mark in the league. A win in Week 7 against the Yeti would be huge for the Liberty.
Baltimore Hawks
Week 3/4 Ranking: 14th
Week 3/4 Raw Score: 1
Week 3/4 Relative Score: 1
Week 5/6 Raw Score: 1
Week 5/6 Relative Score: 1
The Hawks aren’t a bad team. They’re keeping their point differential close to the rest of the league - they’re only -11 behind Philly for example. Their elo is still low because of their performance in Season 27. A win would give it a nice surge, although it would take a few to get them into a position to jump up very much on this board. They’ve shown talent for a young team however and continue to get the chance to play spoiler to a lot of teams in the league as we approach the halfway point. Upsetting the Wraiths in Week 7 would be an incredible boost for this team.