A few weeks ago I made a submission that compared several users and their luck on pulling dotts cards. This included everything from Legends to Hall of Fame cards. Since then, there have been thousands of cards pulled across all dotts users, along with the addition of more cards to the roster. Today we are going to look at the base pull rate, and the rarity of pulling multiple tiers, players, and inserts.
Data String #1: Base odds
The base odds for dotts are listed right here. If you do not feel like going over to the site, I will post the chart of odds at the end of this paragraph. From reading over the chart, it is apparent that the most common card that any user should have will be a backup tier card. This would include the cards for users who went IA, rookie cards, or people who had to be called up to fill a position. The odds of pulling at least one of them in a pack is 94.96%, and has a base rate of 39.22% per card, per pack.
ALL %'s ARE ROUNDED TO 2 DECIMAL NUMBERS
Backup Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one backup in it would be: 94.96%
The odds that a pack has two backup in it would be: 37.24%
The odds that a pack has three backup in it would be: 14.06%
The odds that a pack has four backup in it would be: 5.72%
The odds that a pack has five backup in it would be: 2.24%
The odds that a pack has six backup in it would be 0%*
*The reason there is 0 chance of a full backup or starter pack (at least anymore) is because of changes to ensure that at least one card pulled per pack is a star or higher.*
The next tier beyond backup is Starter tier, for more IA users who stuck around for an extra season, and for rookies or second year starters. The base odds of pulling at least one in a pack is 78.53%, and has a 22.62% per card, per pack chance.
Starter Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one starter in it would be: 78.53%
The odds that a pack has two starter in it would be: 17.76%
The odds that a pack has three starter in it would be: 4.02%
The odds that a pack has four starter in it would be: 0.91%
The odds that a pack has five starter in it would be: 0.21%
The odds that a pack has six starter in it would be: 0%*
After starter comes star tier. They are usually competent players and young players who are about to hit their peak.
Star Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one star in it would be: 100%
The odds that a pack has two star in it would be: 16.40%
The odds that a pack has three star in it would be: 2.69%
The odds that a pack has four star in it would be: 0.44%
The odds that a pack has five star in it would be: 0.072%
The odds that a pack has six star in it would be: 0.012%
Now we have the ability to pull up to six of a tier in a pack, with some of the odds being ridiculously low. For example, the chance of opening a pack with six star players in it would be 1/8333.33^ packs. With each tier being more difficult to find, it becomes even more difficult to pull packs with multiple of a single rarity in it.
All-Pro Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one all-pro in it would be: 50.75%
The odds that a pack has two all-pro in it would be: 5.65%
The odds that a pack has three all-pro in it would be: 0.63%
The odds that a pack has four all-pro in it would be: 0.070%
The odds that a pack has five all-pro in it would be: 0.0078%
The odds that a pack has six all-pro in it would be: 0.00087%
If you wanted to somehow pull a pack with six all-pros inside of it, you would need to open around 114,942.53 packs. Needless to say, we shouldn't see one of these for a couple of seasons, or years.
Legend Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one legend in it would be: 10.33%
The odds that a pack has two legend in it would be: 0.19%
The odds that a pack has three legend in it would be: 0.0033%
The odds that a pack has four legend in it would be: 0.000006%
The odds that a pack has five legend in it would be: 0.000001%
The odds that a pack has six legend in it would be: 0.000000020%
When you first see the drop in percentage from four legends in a pack to five legends in a pack, you might not think it is a large amount, at least numerically. In reality, you go from needing 16,666,666.7 packs to needing 100,000,000 packs. If you wanted to pull an all blue pack, you would need to open around 5,000,000,000 packs. It would take around 13,698,630 years of pulling a pack a day in order to hit that number.
That is it for the base set of dotts cards. The rarity of packs with multiple legends inside of it is incredibly high, being 1/526 packs, which makes it incredible that as of the time of writing this, in the last two days we've had two users have a pack with two legends inside of it.
Data string #2: Pulling a specific player
When users open up dotts packs, their motivation is to pull rare cards, or themselves. The odds of pulling oneself in a pack is incredibly rare, with only a 0.157% chance of doing so at the lowest tier, backup. At each individual tier it gets more and more difficult to pull a specific player, ending at a low of 0.007% for the Hall of Fame tier. This means that if you wanted a hall of fame Kazmir Oles card, you would have to open around 2,381 packs in order to pull it. In other terms, it would take around 6 1/2 years in order to pull a specific Hall of Fame tier, so best of luck @Oles. One oddity that most users really don't understand the rarity of, is pulling the same card twice in the same pack. At the lowest tier, the odds of pulling the same Sweet-James Jones backup card in the same pack is 0.00025%. This should only result in a duplicate card once out of every 400,000 cards, or once out of every 66,667 packs.
Odds of pulling 2 similar backup tier cards: 0.0015% 1/66,667 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar starter tier cards: 0.0014% 1/71,429 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar star tier cards: 0.0006% 1/166,667 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar all-pro cards: 0.00027% 1/370,370 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar legend cards: 0.00015% 1/666,667 packs
As you can see, the odds for pulling the same player of the same tier in the same pack is incredibly rare, with the odds of pulling two of the same backup tier cards in the same pack being 800% more rare than pulling a pack with all star tier cards in it.
Data string #3: Pulling two different tiers
When you open a dotts pack, you are looking to pull inserts from one of our different programs. The most sought after ones are Hall of Fame, Awards, and Rookie autographs. These are the three that I see the most admiration for in the dotts discord.
Odds of pulling 1 Award in a pack: 8.85%
Odds of pulling 2 Award in a pack: 0.14%
Odds of pulling 1 Hall of Fame in a pack: 1.11%
Odds of pulling 2 Hall of Fame in a pack: 0.0021%
Odds of pulling 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 7.55%
Odds of pulling 2 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.098%
Odds of pulling 1 Award and Hall of Fame in a pack: 0.017%
Odds of pulling 1 Award and 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.12%
Odds of pulling 1 Hall of Fame and 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.014%
Odds of pulling 1 Award, 1 Hall of Fame, and 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.00022%
The odds of pulling 3 of the most premier inserts in the same pack are 1/454,546 packs, or 1245 years worth of packs.
To conclude, I don't really have a point for doing this, I just wanted to make some money, and this seemed like a fun idea. If you ever come across one of these rare packs, be sure to show it off on the dotts discord!
Data String #1: Base odds
The base odds for dotts are listed right here. If you do not feel like going over to the site, I will post the chart of odds at the end of this paragraph. From reading over the chart, it is apparent that the most common card that any user should have will be a backup tier card. This would include the cards for users who went IA, rookie cards, or people who had to be called up to fill a position. The odds of pulling at least one of them in a pack is 94.96%, and has a base rate of 39.22% per card, per pack.
ALL %'s ARE ROUNDED TO 2 DECIMAL NUMBERS
Backup Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one backup in it would be: 94.96%
The odds that a pack has two backup in it would be: 37.24%
The odds that a pack has three backup in it would be: 14.06%
The odds that a pack has four backup in it would be: 5.72%
The odds that a pack has five backup in it would be: 2.24%
The odds that a pack has six backup in it would be 0%*
*The reason there is 0 chance of a full backup or starter pack (at least anymore) is because of changes to ensure that at least one card pulled per pack is a star or higher.*
The next tier beyond backup is Starter tier, for more IA users who stuck around for an extra season, and for rookies or second year starters. The base odds of pulling at least one in a pack is 78.53%, and has a 22.62% per card, per pack chance.
Starter Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one starter in it would be: 78.53%
The odds that a pack has two starter in it would be: 17.76%
The odds that a pack has three starter in it would be: 4.02%
The odds that a pack has four starter in it would be: 0.91%
The odds that a pack has five starter in it would be: 0.21%
The odds that a pack has six starter in it would be: 0%*
After starter comes star tier. They are usually competent players and young players who are about to hit their peak.
Star Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one star in it would be: 100%
The odds that a pack has two star in it would be: 16.40%
The odds that a pack has three star in it would be: 2.69%
The odds that a pack has four star in it would be: 0.44%
The odds that a pack has five star in it would be: 0.072%
The odds that a pack has six star in it would be: 0.012%
Now we have the ability to pull up to six of a tier in a pack, with some of the odds being ridiculously low. For example, the chance of opening a pack with six star players in it would be 1/8333.33^ packs. With each tier being more difficult to find, it becomes even more difficult to pull packs with multiple of a single rarity in it.
All-Pro Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one all-pro in it would be: 50.75%
The odds that a pack has two all-pro in it would be: 5.65%
The odds that a pack has three all-pro in it would be: 0.63%
The odds that a pack has four all-pro in it would be: 0.070%
The odds that a pack has five all-pro in it would be: 0.0078%
The odds that a pack has six all-pro in it would be: 0.00087%
If you wanted to somehow pull a pack with six all-pros inside of it, you would need to open around 114,942.53 packs. Needless to say, we shouldn't see one of these for a couple of seasons, or years.
Legend Tier Misc. Odds
The odds that a pack has one legend in it would be: 10.33%
The odds that a pack has two legend in it would be: 0.19%
The odds that a pack has three legend in it would be: 0.0033%
The odds that a pack has four legend in it would be: 0.000006%
The odds that a pack has five legend in it would be: 0.000001%
The odds that a pack has six legend in it would be: 0.000000020%
When you first see the drop in percentage from four legends in a pack to five legends in a pack, you might not think it is a large amount, at least numerically. In reality, you go from needing 16,666,666.7 packs to needing 100,000,000 packs. If you wanted to pull an all blue pack, you would need to open around 5,000,000,000 packs. It would take around 13,698,630 years of pulling a pack a day in order to hit that number.
That is it for the base set of dotts cards. The rarity of packs with multiple legends inside of it is incredibly high, being 1/526 packs, which makes it incredible that as of the time of writing this, in the last two days we've had two users have a pack with two legends inside of it.
Data string #2: Pulling a specific player
When users open up dotts packs, their motivation is to pull rare cards, or themselves. The odds of pulling oneself in a pack is incredibly rare, with only a 0.157% chance of doing so at the lowest tier, backup. At each individual tier it gets more and more difficult to pull a specific player, ending at a low of 0.007% for the Hall of Fame tier. This means that if you wanted a hall of fame Kazmir Oles card, you would have to open around 2,381 packs in order to pull it. In other terms, it would take around 6 1/2 years in order to pull a specific Hall of Fame tier, so best of luck @Oles. One oddity that most users really don't understand the rarity of, is pulling the same card twice in the same pack. At the lowest tier, the odds of pulling the same Sweet-James Jones backup card in the same pack is 0.00025%. This should only result in a duplicate card once out of every 400,000 cards, or once out of every 66,667 packs.
Odds of pulling 2 similar backup tier cards: 0.0015% 1/66,667 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar starter tier cards: 0.0014% 1/71,429 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar star tier cards: 0.0006% 1/166,667 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar all-pro cards: 0.00027% 1/370,370 packs
Odds of pulling 2 similar legend cards: 0.00015% 1/666,667 packs
As you can see, the odds for pulling the same player of the same tier in the same pack is incredibly rare, with the odds of pulling two of the same backup tier cards in the same pack being 800% more rare than pulling a pack with all star tier cards in it.
Data string #3: Pulling two different tiers
When you open a dotts pack, you are looking to pull inserts from one of our different programs. The most sought after ones are Hall of Fame, Awards, and Rookie autographs. These are the three that I see the most admiration for in the dotts discord.
Odds of pulling 1 Award in a pack: 8.85%
Odds of pulling 2 Award in a pack: 0.14%
Odds of pulling 1 Hall of Fame in a pack: 1.11%
Odds of pulling 2 Hall of Fame in a pack: 0.0021%
Odds of pulling 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 7.55%
Odds of pulling 2 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.098%
Odds of pulling 1 Award and Hall of Fame in a pack: 0.017%
Odds of pulling 1 Award and 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.12%
Odds of pulling 1 Hall of Fame and 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.014%
Odds of pulling 1 Award, 1 Hall of Fame, and 1 Rookie Auto in a pack: 0.00022%
The odds of pulling 3 of the most premier inserts in the same pack are 1/454,546 packs, or 1245 years worth of packs.
To conclude, I don't really have a point for doing this, I just wanted to make some money, and this seemed like a fun idea. If you ever come across one of these rare packs, be sure to show it off on the dotts discord!