05-03-2021, 04:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2021, 06:49 AM by Asked Madden.)
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Austin and New York enter the Wild Card round a little backwards. New York has lost their last two and Austin lost their last three, almost losing the last playoff spot to Honolulu who was on a five game win streak. On the surface Austin has very nice numbers. They have a scoring differential of +70 and pair one of the best offenses in the league with an average or slightly above average defense. What this doesn’t show is that they have lost their last three games and five of their six, including a pivotal to New York that kept them from getting home field for this Wild Card match-up. It’s actually quite strange. Their passing numbers put them on the lower spectrum in the league and their rushing isn’t elite but is definitely above average. They don’t get a ton of pancakes but they give up the least amount of sacks in the league. Somehow this has produced one of the best scoring units in the ASFC. When they were 8-2 Austin was averaging about 30.5 points per game and giving up 22 points. Over their last 6 games they are still giving up around the same amount of points at 23 points per game. So the defense hasn’t really changed all that much. The offense, however, is scoring less than 21 points per game. They haven’t been turning the ball over unnecessarily. Their turnover margin during that losing span is +6. They lost a game to Orange County when the Otters turned the ball over 6 times! 6 turnovers created and they couldn’t win. So what’s the issue? It’s 3rd down efficiency. They were completing 3rd down at around 40% but over the last 6 games of the season they have only converted around 32%. Without going through every single team and adding up numbers I will go out on a limb and say that is probably one of the worst marks across the league. When looking at their record against playoff teams they have played .500 ball against their conference, splitting both match ups with New York and Arizona. They went 1-2 against the NSFC. 3-4 against playoff teams which means their record against teams not playing for the rest of the season was 6-3. Enough of the team outlook, let’s dig into what makes this team tick.
It starts and ends with Zoe Watts. This man ranks in the top 6 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns while also clocking in with the 3rd most carries. This is a team that wants Watts to set the tone early. Probably one of the most unheralded players on this team is Videl-San. While not racking the amount of catches as other number one wide receivers he is the epitome of a deep threat. This 1490 yards on 86 receptions easily puts his 16.9 average per reception in the top 2 in the league. His 12 touchdowns also have him tied for 3rd in the league. The offensive line has been one of the best in the league at limiting sacks which has led to Jackie Daytona making big strides in year 2 in Austin. The signal caller had a pristine 24/9 TD/INT ratio and completed passes at a 66% clip. Maybe their decreased 3rd down conversation rate was due to too much reliance on Watts and not trusting Daytona to throw the ball, but they might need to open up the playbook up if they don’t want to be a one a done playoff team. Defensively, they are fairly middle of the road in multiple facets. They do get into the backfield and cause a lot of turnovers. They rank near the top in fumbles forced and recovered, as well as interceptions and tackles for loss. They are led on defense by Defensive End Troen Egghands and Linebackers Tyler Montain and Dex Kennedy. Lesean Paris Crooks leads the young secondary. On paper this team looks fairly young. Now let’s check out their opponent the New York Silverbacks.
One of the newest expansion teams, the New York Silverbacks, return to the playoffs after missing out last season. They won the division in Season 26 but set a record for wins this year on their way to the 2 seed and homefield advantage. Like their opponent, New York comes in having lost their last two games and three of their last four. Their point differential of +10 doesn’t really standout, but looking at others in the division it ranks 3rd. Their offense and defense both rank closer to the middle and bottom of the league then one would suspect. Despite this 2 game losing streak, they never lost 2 games in a row the entire seasons and honestly have been consistent the whole time. They rattled of 5 straights wins from week 8-12. The last 4 weeks they have been outscored 91 to 66 and have failed to score more than 20 points in any of those games. An even more troubling trend is that the Silverbacks have a record of 1-4 against the other playoff teams. They didn’t play Sarasota or Yellowknife, which to be honest I was still under the assumption you played every team at least once, so they didn’t play the two NSFC teams that are also playing tonight. They lost against Berlin by 1 but in the 4 games they played against Austin and Arizona they went 1-3 and were outscored 56-122. Yikes!! Their one win was the only game decided by less than 13 points, as they were blown out in the 3 loses. Captain Rogers, like Watts, was at the top of the league in rushing attempts and second in yards. They will Rogers all game every game. This receiving corps is very well rounded. Jackson Kingston is their go to guy and ranks around the top 10 in most categories but doesn’t have many touchdowns on the year due to drawing number 1 cornerback priority. They made a mid season trade to bring in Tugg Speedman who has given them a true one play ability to score from anywhere on the field. He ranks up there with Videl-San in average yards per catch. Unlike the quarterback play that Austin is getting Sam Howitzer has been a game manager for most of the season. He has almost the same exact passing yards as Daytona but 9 less touchdowns and only a 61% completion percentage. I wonder if they will alter the game-plan to get the ball into their wide receivers hands more or if they continue to ride Rogers. They don’t pancake many defenders as an offensive unit and they rank in the middle of the pack for sacks given up. Defensively, they sack the quarterback and sack them a lot. This in turn as has lead to the second most interceptions in the league. Jack Banks led the league with 20 sacks on the year. That is one of the highest totals in recent seasons. Brick Van Sanzo chipped in another 13 giving this team one of the most dangerous pass rushing tandems in the league. Free Safety Bob Roberts had 7 interceptions and leads this secondary with captain Colt Mendoza. I thought Austin looked pretty young and then I looked at the New York roster.
These teams are incredibly similar. Both of these teams are playing their worst football of the season, and they both have offenses that rely on running the ball. Both teams have very good receivers that are at the mercy of their quarterbacks. They split the season series and both have bad underlying numbers that most likely will be exposed. New York has an incredible home record and Austin plays better on the road. I’m not sure you could find a more even match-up. Despite my heart telling me to pick the Silverbacks I think that Austin just has more IT players and their quarterback play will prove to be the difference maker.
Austin Copperheads beat the New York Silverbacks in a defensive struggle 23-20
Now we move over to the NSFC where it seems like these two are always going back and forth. We will look at the Sarasota Sailfish first
Sarasota, fresh off of an Ultimus victory, are back in the playoffs looking for another. They looked to have the second seed locked up until a Week 16 loss to Baltimore dropped them to 3rd.This is still a very good football team and boast one of the best point differentials in the league at 127. While not a bad defense at all, they are one of the worst in the NSFC, but when the bottom 4 teams have given up at minimum 442 points that doesn’t mean much. They get beat through the air but are stout against the run. Their offense is easily the most potent in the league, but in games they have lost they have been unable to outscore their opponents. Sarasota has only played one team from the ASFC that is in the playoff but they are 3-1 against the other teams in the NSFC. Most importantly, they are 2-0 against Yellowknife with both games being 20+ point blowouts. Let’s start with their running back Raphtalia Chan. Chan has rushed for 1260 yards and 19 touchdowns on just 242 touches. His 5.2 yards a carry and longest rush of 86 are easily the best in a loaded rushing class. While their receivers don’t compete with the likes of the top guys they have 2 with over 1k yards and their tight end, James Angler, is a favorite for Tight End of the year. Angler put up his second consecutive 1,000 yard season. Mike Boss Jr. is having a very good year. Not elite passing numbers but well above average with exceptional touchdown to interception ratio. Their offensive line does a decent job of keeping the sacks to a minimum but that’s about it about that group. They are not intimidating. Like Austin, this group causes turnovers at an alarming rate. They led the league in interceptions and fumble categories. They also led the league in defensive touchdowns. They are above average when it comes to sacks and tackles for loss but they get enough pressure on the opposition that it causes teams to make mistakes. Harrison Andrews is the leader of this defense, once again showing his ability to not only pick off quarterbacks, but take it back to the end zone. Derred de Ville also have a phenomenal year filling up the stat sheet and proving to be quite the Linebacker. This team is battle tested and has a good mix of younger players and veterans. If it wasn’t for the end of the season slide they could be looking at a 1 seed but must travel to Yellowknife.
Yellowknife is a few years removed from their last Ultimus but they still have some of those pieces along with some budding superstars. If the Sailfish squandered a chance for the number 1 seed then the Wraiths are a team that seem to be playing their best football right now. After a slow start to the year, they are on a 3 game win streak and are looking to knock out their rival. Their offense is the second best scoring offense behind Sarasota and their defense is pretty darn good as well. Colby Jack commands this team and is looking to win an MVP and get them back to the Ultimus. They do have one of the worst rushing defense, but they shut down passing attacks frequently. They have a 2-3 record against playoff teams and 1-3 in conference. They have been blown out by Berlin and both losses to Sarasota. Colby Jack is easily the best quarterback in the Wild Card round. He was middle of the pack in terms of yardage but he had 32 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions on the season. This wide receiver group is fairly similar to Sarasota. Sakura doesn’t fall into the top 5 or 8 wide receivers but he is still an elite talent, which may be a testament to the amount these two quarterbacks spread the ball around. Sakura had 1370 yards on only 86 catches while Mark Walker and Dre Matthews put up very good years as well. Tight End Zee Rechs will be overshadowed by Angler but he had a fantastic year as well. Unlike the other Wild Card teams this Yellowknife group don’t have the running back star power that others have. A mid season trade to acquire Rando Cardrissian has helped Acura Skyline and bolstered the run game a bit. Despite the individual production they finished near the middle in terms of yardage and above average in yards per rush. Not a prolific pancake group of lineman but they are tied for the second least amount of sacks. Keeping Colby Jack upright will be paramount. This defensive unit is kind of a jack of all trades group. They create turnovers, are among the best at getting sacks and tackling behind the line of scrimmage. Douglas Quaid has been a staple of this defense for some time with budding superstars like Big Slammu and James Cho create havoc on defense. Daniel Foster and Djibutee McJimmerson form one of the best defensive back tandems in the league. It’s a very underrated defensive group blending veterans and youth.
This is a hard one to predict. If we are going strictly off of head to head then it’s an easy choice, but I don’t think Sarasota is a 20 point favorite over Yellowknife, especially in Yellowknife. It’s hard to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone 3 times. I also play for Yellowknife so it will probably be a homer pick but I think Yellowknife wins the important game of the 3 these teams have played this year and I think Colby Jack puts this team on his back while the defense forces Sarasota to become one dimensional.
Yellowknife Wraiths beat the Sarasota Sailfish in a nail-biter. 33-27
I’m not sure if it’s a conference thing or what but both of the Wild Card NSFC teams look good from the eye test while the ASFC teams look to have struggled. Also, why are all of the offenses in the NFSC a lot better than the ASFC? I’ll be doing a roundup of second round matchups after tonight, but just some things that popped out when looking at these teams. It’s also cool to see a new rivalry versus an older one in these Wild Card games.