4,094 words - ready for grading
2x media voucher
Hi everyone! Frost decided to be a total nub and not write ISFL fantasy football advice for the first time in forever this season, leaving everyone in total darkness about what to do with fantasy! Luckily, someone else (me) also made rankings last season, and impartial reviews conducted by @ReverendOReily found that mine were so much more fantastic and amazing than Frost's, so I found some time to quickly go through and write up my fantasy opinions for this season. Hopefully these are helpful, last season was my worst in fantasy ever but a lot of other people told me they found mine really helpful and got TPE from them. So use at your own risk, and be sure to mix my advice with a healthy dose of your own free thought.
To take advantage of the 2x media promotion and to help clarify my thoughts while making the rankings, I decided to go through and write up team-by-team breakdowns of passing and rushing offenses as a whole compared to how they performed last season. Feel free to skip to the huge "Positional Rankings" section header below if you don't need the backstory, but if you want to take the time and read through I think it'll give you a good idea of the general trends for teams outside of my individual player rankings later. Also, please double check me - if I said something in my team breakdowns that's incompatible with my player rankings, let me know and I will change my rankings accordingly (or maybe I'll just change my opinions on the teams, who knows!)
Without further ado,let's start with the team-by-team breakdowns:
Arizona Outlaws
S28 Passing: 567 attempt (11th), 4504 yards (9th), 100 rating (2nd)
S28 Rushing: 419 attempts (2nd), 1982 yards (2nd), 4.7 yards per carry (1st)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
This team has a terrific passing offense that has only improved since the previous season as the young trio of QB Cortez, WR Raimon, and WR Pama only get better. However, given the equally formidable strength of their rushing offense it's hard to project that the team will have a much greater passing volume than last season, and given the already great efficiency numbers they put up it's hard to predict a great improvement on that front either.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME+
If anything, Arizona has a problem of too many good pieces at RB. Nakamura and Thorbjornsson Memes (thanks charity drive) are both right about the same TPE at the same archetype, so if it weren't for one of them being the GM's player I would say we have a slight problem in fantasy of not knowing who will get the ball. But one of them is, and since Z-Whiz is a classic boring selfless GM (ugh), Nakamura is going to remain as likely the top RB option in fantasy this season. There are small concerns of literally not rostering a TE let alone a FB, and an already mediocre OL now undergoing regression on its standout tackle, so the blocking could suffer. But the team has a track record of getting great performances out of Nakamura and I don't expect that to change.
Austin Copperheads
S28 Passing: 554 attempts (12th), 4099 yards (12th), 96 rating (5th)
S28 Rushing: 393 attempts (5th), 1601 yards (6th), 4.1 yards per carry (10th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
QB Daytona had a quietly strong S28, and is now well outside of the bottom tiers of QB TPE in the league. He has a slightly weakened set of receivers to throw to, with WR Videl-San clearly the top option over IA WR Howlett, rookie WR Cowabunga, and regressing TE Vequain. Despite Daytona's improvements, I think the team's comparative strengths remain in rushing and defense, so I don't expect a huge change in passing volume from last season. Videl-San was probably the best WR in the ISFL last season, so it's not a sure thing that they'll be able to repeat the standout performance, but they should have a strong chance.
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
Despite subpar rushing efficiency last season, Austin ran the ball a lot with the duo of Zoe Watts, who put up 1000 rushing yards and 13 TDs, and Jim the Vampire, who actually averaged the greater number of yards per carry between the two with 4.7. FB Ben Alexander-Arnold is earning TPE at a pretty steady pace and figures to be an above average player at the position given the small number in the league, and they have a strong OL led by my old KCC teammates Archstone and Quigley in the 700-800 TPE range. With Watts now the highest TPE RB in the league, I think the Austin offense will remain committed to the run and perhaps even double down, pushing Watts among the top tier of fantasy RBs with an outside shot at RB1.
Baltimore Hawks
S28 Passing: 677 attempts (4th), 4314 yards (11th), 80 rating (14th)
S28 Rushing: 324 attempts (10th), 1098 yards (13th), 3.4 yards per carry (14th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
Baltimore's offense was very inefficient last season, and its passing offense looks to perhaps be even worse with the midseason departure of WR Messi (now a SAR TE) and the regression of IA QB Skywalker. They feature 3 receiving options starting to hit their stride in TPE, with newly converted Preston Parker (swapped to WR from RB) leading the way at 536 TPE, followed closely by Quick at 510 and Badger at 467. TE Mahi'ai also had a strong rookie season with 500 receiving yards and 2 TDs as an immediate callup, so look fo rhim to have continued impact as well. RB Goose gets plenty of work in the passing game as well, ranking 5th among RBs in receiving yards last season with 556 and 3 TDs. Despite the regression at QB, I figure Baltimore to continue its emphasis on the passing attack given its lackluster rushing options and variety of options including TE and RB.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME
Having lost Parker to the aforementioned position swap, Baltimore's rushing attack is now clearly the territory of RB Goose at 521 TPE, with immediate callup rookie RB King unlikely to yield consistent performances at only 348 TPE. As I said before, given the position swap I feel that this position group is in about the same position as last season and it's unlikely that Baltimore will place too much more emphasis on their rushing attack than last season.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
S28 Passing: 621 attempts (7th), 4973 yards (3rd), 96 rating (4th)
S28 Rushing: 323 attempts (11th), 1354 yards (9th), 4.2 yards per carry (9th)
S29 Passing Outlook: BETTER
Last season, Berlin featured a slow tempo game replete with quick passes, which led their offensive splits to tend much more towards passing than rushing. While a few key offensive pieces have hit regression, they've only undergone the one season of it meaning that their total TPE numbers are not hit that much. In addition, the addition of WR Hood in free agency should give their passing attack a huge boost by creating a third incredible receiving option alongside WR Achtfunf and WR Skiuuup, not to mention TE Boyd. While I don't know that the passing volume will increase very much, the efficiency has a good chance to gain from its already high standing.
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
Meanwhile, although the overall team numbers don't look great, RB King Jr. (another charity name swap from Petrongolo last season) had a strong season with 1100 rushing yards and 12 TDs plus another 500 yards through the air. This will be his peak TPE season (as soon as he does his rare update...) and Berlin can support him with a strong OL led by 1081 TPE Krause and a strong blocking TE in Boyd. I'm extremely high on Berlin this season and I do think they have the potential to be one of the best fantasy scoring offenses this season due to their multitude of threats on both the air and ground.
Chicago Butchers
S28 Passing: 633 attempts (6th), 4956 yards (4th), 85 rating (11th)
S28 Rushing: 331 attempts (8th), 1383 yards (8th), 4.2 yards per carry (8th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Since last season, when Chicago was towards the bottom of passing offenses in the league regarding efficiency, the following things have happened: QB O'Donnell, RB Yoda, and TE Gelbman underwent regression for the second time, WR Campbell left in free agency, OL Bayley Jr. retired., and OL Rubbe regressed below the DSFL cap. Luckily Scabbia is still there as a primary receiving option, but besides that there isn't much to look for in terms of fantasy options.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME
Hayes looks to build on a strong rookie season now that they are the top TPE option in the backfield. As a rookie, they rushed for 720 yards and 11 TDs at 3.9 yards per carry. The efficiency wasn't stellar, so that can definitely improve, but the TD numbers seem quite high to repeat especially with an offense that's lost a lot of other weapons. With fewer red zone opportunities, I expect Hayes to return to earth a bit in that category. The strong OL will definitely help even if it is suffering a bit from the loss of a few pieces.
Colorado Yeti
S28 Passing: 775 attempts (1st), 5668 yards (1st), 95 rating (6th)
S28 Rushing: 246 attempts (14th), 1078 yards (14th), 4.4 yards per carry (4th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME(-?)
There is no reason that Colorado should be passing this much. The team still performs fine because it is a very strong collection of high TPE players at important positions, but I think it's hard to argue after scraping into the playoffs in S27 and finishing at .500 in S28 that the one-dimensional offense they've adopted since the sim transfer is maximizing the talent on the team. I have no expectations that they will start doing anything differently as they've been rewarded with a ton of awards thanks to staggering volume numbers, so once again the team remains a good source for fantasy options. But you never know, maybe the GMs will stop being stubborn and open their mind to the possibility of other offensive approaches, so there's a bit of risk here.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME(+?)
Underutilized RB Gilbert underwent regression this past offseason but still sits at a healthy 1072 TPE. Luckily for our fantasy purposes but unluckily for backup RB Dad, the backfield split is extremely lopsided, with Gilbert receiving 203 of the 246 rushing attempts on the team last season, good for 934 yards and 6 TDs, and supplemented of course by some solid passing numbers with 461 yards and 4 TDs. Gilbert should be solid and has some upside if the team decides to run the ball more.
Honolulu Hahalua
S28 Passing: 718 attempts (2nd), 4633 yards (6th), 85 rating (12th)
S28 Rushing: 325 attempts (9th), 1320 yards (10th), 4.1 yards per carry (11th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Honolulu lost QB Fujiwara to regression, replacing her with S27 Ultimini winner rookie QB Christ Jr. With just 635 TPE he is almost guaranteed to struggle through the season. He has some solid receiving options to throw to, with longtime senddown WR Kendrick-Watts starting his rookie season above 700 TPE, and Ayers and Kai both being strong options in the receiving game. There will definitely be a reduced focus on this aspect of the team with a QB that young, though.
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
Meanwhile, the run game figures to be a strong identity for the Hahalua on offense this season. Their attempts and efficiency last season suffered thanks to the focus on passing, but I think they can rely on Ayers especially to carry a lot of the rushing workload, with Kai supplementing and leading in receiving usage. The OL is a bit of a problem spot, but they also have a solid TE in Krashwagen and FB Hex to help pave the way. While they may still not be the most efficient team, especially due to weaknesses on OL where they will have two <300 users starting after position swaps, I think rushing attempts will have to skyrocket due to the weakness at the QB position.
New Orleans Second Line
S28 Passing: 652 attempts (5th), 4645 yards (5th), 91 rating (6th)
S28 Rushing: 297 attempts (12th), 3.7 yards per carry (13th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
While Slothlisberger hit regression this past offseason, he is still at totally serviceable TPE. The bigger concern for the team is their receiving options, as Barker regressed for the second time, which means WR Bodenhamer actually currently leads the WR corps in TPE. Former WR Spencer will swap to TE to fill the hole left by McCormick's retirement. It's still a solid receiving group, but definitely not quite the same NOLA passing attack that we're used to. However I figure it will still be the team's focus thanks to....
S29 Rushing Outlook: WORSE
Committee leading RB Botty retired prior to the Ultimus, meaning that NOLA will not have access to his corpse this season. This leaves them with RB Rotchburns and rookie RB Roman as their rushing duo, which unfortunately will be one of the worse attacks in the league. Rotchburns's user Schoolboy Shue does seem to be updating recently so there is some hope, but I expect that New Orleans will have about similar efficiency numbers as last season when they do try to run it. The one upside is that Rotchburns is a clearer committee leader so he'll receive a more predictably large bulk of the carries, maybe? I would avoid touching this.
New York Silverbacks
S28 Passing: 539 attempts (13th), 4089 yards (13th), 90 rating (9th)
S28 Rushing: 432 attempts (3rd), 1668 yards (5th), 3.9 yards per carry (12th)
S29 Passing Outlook: BETTER
New York figures to look completely different on offense next season thanks to their midseason splash trade for WR Tugg Speedmann. After trading for him over the last 5 weeks of the season, New York flipped the script on offense thanks to their new weapon and averaged 38 pass attempts per game, which would pan out to 611 attempts over the course of a 16 game season. WR Kingston will lead the way, and TE Wilkinson is reaching the point of being a reliable option as well.
S29 Rushing Outlook: WORSE
While I definitely respect the dedication to the run, New York might have gone a bit overboard with it last season given their subpar stable of rushing options in RB Rogers and Torres. Rogers remains the lead back but has yet to crack 1000 TPE, while the Silverbacks have found a very minor upgrade at RB2 by calling up Brondon Price Brandon Prince from Bondi Beach. These two will have the road paved for them by the best fullback in the league, the legend himself Buster Bawlls, as well as a strong OL with three S25 options and two T4 bots. I think Rogers will remain a viable fantasy option especially given how clearly he leads this backfield in TPE, but the focus of this team is going to be passing next season and Rogers will suffer a bit for that.
Orange County Otters
S28 Passing: 699 attempts (3rd), 4975 yards (2nd), 89 rating (10th)
S28 Rushing: 287 attempts (13th), 1244 yards (11th), 4.3 yards per carry (6th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Despite a low efficiency passing last season, Ramza was definitely a great fantasy QB with almost 5000 yards passing and 32 TDs. However, this season they figure to be a bit worse with QB Ramza undergoing the first pass at regression as well as his top receiving options WR Despacito Jr and TE Evans. However, the biggest change is that the rushing attack should be much more formidable next season, allowing the team to actually choose its offensive strategy rather than being pigeonholed by lack of good running backs, so I expect the volume to decrease some. But maybe efficiency will rise some to counteract that thanks to teams being less able to focus on their one-dimensional offense?
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
GOAT TANK. The meme has swapped to RB, although he frustratingly chose the Speed Back archetype when a Power Back build would obviously be more befitting a former defensive lineman. Top OL Trunks is suffering from regression, but they still have a solid line blocking for him and FB Mills to assist in clearing the way. Given how little they ran it last season it wouldn't take a lot to improve the team's running outlook, and I think Goat Tank swapping to RB is a lot.
Philadelphia Liberty
S28 Passing: 527 attempts (14th), 3508 yards (14th), 84 rating (13th)
S28 Rushing: 475 attempts (1st), 2058 yards (1st), 4.3 yards per carry (5th)
S29 Passing Outlook: BETTER
The S28 Liberty is the type of team I imagine when I think about Honolulu next season with their rookie QB. However, Negs is much improved on last season and will only continue to get better over the course of the season. For comparison's sake, he's currently rivaling Chicago QB O'Donnell in TPE. This, combined with standout RB Williams's retirement, means that the passing offense can take on more of the workload. With WR Panda feeling the effects of regression, this clears a path for WR Chambers to be the focus of the passing offense, so be on the lookout for a breakout year from him. WR Asui and TE San Lorenzo will also provide a diversity of targets for Negs to throw to.
S29 Rushing Outlook: WORSE
RB Williams was one of my biggest risks in last season's fantasy rankings, and he paid off pretty well, amassing over 1000 yards rushing at 5.1 yards per carry and 16 TDs. Unfortunately, he gone, and last season's backup RB Christiansen will take over. He had solid efficiency last season, with 4.1 yards per carry on 150 attempts, but it's definitely a step down and will move some of the focus over to the passing game as I mentioned earlier. RB Jackson will join to supplement the rushing attack but doesn't figure to be a major threat immediately.
San Jose Sabercats
S28 Passing: 578 attempts (10th), 4583 yards (7th), 100 rating (1st)
S28 Rushing: 403 attempts (4th), 1683 yards (4th), 4.2 yards per carry (7th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Regression hit QB Monty Jack somewhat hard, knocking him all the way down to 9th in the QB TPE rankings, just ahead of Daytona. They lost WR Hood to free agency and WR Speedman to trade, but obtained WR Campbell in free agency themselves to offset those a bit. WR Crossley is a solid second option, and TE Lewandowski comes off a nice season but has undergone regression a second time. Overall this looks like a depleted passing attack compared to the recent few seasons and I think the loss of Hood in particular will hurt a lot. Campbell had a great season last year as WR2 with Scabbia opposite, but I'm unsure if they can retain some ridiculous rate stats, let alone facing harder matchups as WR1.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME+
Having traded away RB Cardrissian last season and gotten IA RB Vermillion in return, star RB Lackson has less backup than you would want for a team that figures to be as run heavy as San Jose. I think Lackson will look like a supercharged version of Hayes, having to carry a lot of the load on offense but at least being much more up to the task. Lack of scoring and ability for opposing teams to focus on him may be concerns, though. The OL also doesn't look to be great, and they have no FB to help Lewandowski block, who is himself not the best suited to that role.
Sarasota Sailfish
S28 Passing: 595 attempts (9th), 4426 yards (10th), 97 rating (3rd)
S28 Rushing: 375 attempts (6th), 1766 yards (3rd), 4.7 yards per carry (2nd)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
The loss of WR Witheblock (who swapped to LB) is definitely a concern, but WR J'Vathon put up quite solid numbers last season and TE Angler figures once again to be a huge factor in the passing game, having eclipsed 1000 receiving yards each of the last two seasons. Young WRs Spence and Radetzky as well as TE Messi round out the receiving corps, and RB Ichinose (formerly Chan, formerly Frost... what a weeb) has performed well in a pass catching role as well. It won't look quite the same as previous seasons but I'm confident that the Sailfish can replicate their passing performance from last season, which isn't too hard a mark to meet given below average attempts and yards although strong efficiency numbers. The OL also looks to take some pressure off of Boss Jr with big additions of Bob Bob and LBJ3 as well as the continued improvement of young tackle Stumpy Jones.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME-
While Ichinose has gone through two regressions now, they still rank 6th among RBs in TPE and should be a strong offensive option for the team. The Sailfish's improvement at OL should pay dividends here as well, and they remain committed to the run by rostering two TEs and a FB as well. Frost's anime player may no longer be quite the same top top option as they have been the past few years, but should still be a strong consideration for a top pick in fantasy.
Yellowknife Wraiths
S28 Passing: 615 attempts (8th), 4524 yards (8th), 94 rating (7th)
S28 Rushing: 337 attempts (7th), 1563 yards (7th), 4.6 yards per carry (3rd)
S29 Passing Outlook: MORE
While the Wraiths were an extremely balanced (and average) team last season, that figures not to be the case this season as RB Skyline enters regression and their backup will be immediate callup RB Cue Jr. starting the season at less than 400 TPE. QB Jack should still be among the top passers in the league by TPE and he'll have great options to throw to with Sakura and Walker being joined by IA signing Jeeta as WR3 and TE Rechs hoping to follow up on his TEotY performance from last season.
S29 Rushing Outlook: LESS
Like I said, the running options simply aren't there for Yellowknife in the way that they've grown accustomed to. While their OL is led by star OL Buckley and TE Rechs is a plus blocker, the rest of the line is filled out by acceptable quality T3 bots, so I don't have high hopes for the blocking to pave the way for a great rushing attack this season.
I'll be editing these minorly depending on how my thinking changes. * indicates someone who's moved since the initial rankings came out.
QB
TIER 1
1. Mattathias Caliban
2. Nicholas Kaepercolin
TIER 2
3. Colby Jack
4. Suleiman Ramza
TIER 3
5. Charlemagne Cortez
6. Ben Slothlisberger
7. Sam Howitzer
Potential waiver breakout: Jackie Daytona
RB
TIER 1
1. Tatsu Nakamura
TIER 2
2. Zoe Watts
3. *Chizuru Ichinose (Prev: 4)
4. *Danny King Jr. (Prev: 5)
5. *Jamar Lackson (Prev: 3)
TIER 3
6. Goat Tank
7. Richard Gilbert
8. Nicholas Ayers
9. Captain Rogers
10. Acura Skyline
TIER 4
11. Madison Hayes
12. Busch Goose
13. Cobra Kai
14. Deadly Memes
15. Anders Christiansen
Potential waiver breakout: Mike Rotchburns
WR
TIER 1
1. William Lim
TIER 2
2. Tychondrius Hood
3. Videl-San
4. Kai Sakura
5. Jackson Kingston
TIER 3
6. Ed Barker
7. Taro Raimon
8. Owen Holloway
9. Raphael Delacour
10. Luca Scabbia
11. Tre'Darius J'Vathon
TIER 4
12. Joshua Campbell
13. Mark Walker
14. Killian Chambers
15. Garfield Despacito Jr.
16. Achtfunf
17. Tugg Speedman
Potential waiver breakout: Brock Bodenhamer
TE
TIER 1
1. James Angler
2. Heath Evans
TIER 2
3. Clark Boyd
4. Zee Rechs
TIER 3
5. Adam Spencer
6. James Lewandowski
7. Tree Gelbman
Potential waiver breakout: James Wilkinson (Again! I still believe!)
OL
TIER 1
1. Matt Krause
2. Bruce Buckley
3. Adam Mellott
TIER 2
4. Julio Jones
5. Felix Archstone
6. Calvin Golladay
7. Mo "Mamba" Magic
Potential waiver breakout: Alexander Franklin
K/P
TIER 1
1. Danny King
2. Blago Kokot
3. Dougie Smalls
TIER 2
4. Matthew McDairmid
5. Jacob Small
6. Cade York
7. Sam Sidekick
Potential waiver breakout: Leo Bloomfield (But don't use your waiver priority on kickers, probably...)
DEFENSE
TIER 1
1. New York Silverbacks
2. Austin Copperheads
3. Sarasota Sailfish
TIER 2
4. Berlin Fire Salamanders
5. Arizona Outlaws
6. Colorado Yeti
7. Orange County Otters
Thank you so much for reading! Best of luck in your fantasy drafts, everyone.
2x media voucher
Hi everyone! Frost decided to be a total nub and not write ISFL fantasy football advice for the first time in forever this season, leaving everyone in total darkness about what to do with fantasy! Luckily, someone else (me) also made rankings last season, and impartial reviews conducted by @ReverendOReily found that mine were so much more fantastic and amazing than Frost's, so I found some time to quickly go through and write up my fantasy opinions for this season. Hopefully these are helpful, last season was my worst in fantasy ever but a lot of other people told me they found mine really helpful and got TPE from them. So use at your own risk, and be sure to mix my advice with a healthy dose of your own free thought.
To take advantage of the 2x media promotion and to help clarify my thoughts while making the rankings, I decided to go through and write up team-by-team breakdowns of passing and rushing offenses as a whole compared to how they performed last season. Feel free to skip to the huge "Positional Rankings" section header below if you don't need the backstory, but if you want to take the time and read through I think it'll give you a good idea of the general trends for teams outside of my individual player rankings later. Also, please double check me - if I said something in my team breakdowns that's incompatible with my player rankings, let me know and I will change my rankings accordingly (or maybe I'll just change my opinions on the teams, who knows!)
Without further ado,let's start with the team-by-team breakdowns:
Arizona Outlaws
S28 Passing: 567 attempt (11th), 4504 yards (9th), 100 rating (2nd)
S28 Rushing: 419 attempts (2nd), 1982 yards (2nd), 4.7 yards per carry (1st)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
This team has a terrific passing offense that has only improved since the previous season as the young trio of QB Cortez, WR Raimon, and WR Pama only get better. However, given the equally formidable strength of their rushing offense it's hard to project that the team will have a much greater passing volume than last season, and given the already great efficiency numbers they put up it's hard to predict a great improvement on that front either.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME+
If anything, Arizona has a problem of too many good pieces at RB. Nakamura and Thorbjornsson Memes (thanks charity drive) are both right about the same TPE at the same archetype, so if it weren't for one of them being the GM's player I would say we have a slight problem in fantasy of not knowing who will get the ball. But one of them is, and since Z-Whiz is a classic boring selfless GM (ugh), Nakamura is going to remain as likely the top RB option in fantasy this season. There are small concerns of literally not rostering a TE let alone a FB, and an already mediocre OL now undergoing regression on its standout tackle, so the blocking could suffer. But the team has a track record of getting great performances out of Nakamura and I don't expect that to change.
Austin Copperheads
S28 Passing: 554 attempts (12th), 4099 yards (12th), 96 rating (5th)
S28 Rushing: 393 attempts (5th), 1601 yards (6th), 4.1 yards per carry (10th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
QB Daytona had a quietly strong S28, and is now well outside of the bottom tiers of QB TPE in the league. He has a slightly weakened set of receivers to throw to, with WR Videl-San clearly the top option over IA WR Howlett, rookie WR Cowabunga, and regressing TE Vequain. Despite Daytona's improvements, I think the team's comparative strengths remain in rushing and defense, so I don't expect a huge change in passing volume from last season. Videl-San was probably the best WR in the ISFL last season, so it's not a sure thing that they'll be able to repeat the standout performance, but they should have a strong chance.
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
Despite subpar rushing efficiency last season, Austin ran the ball a lot with the duo of Zoe Watts, who put up 1000 rushing yards and 13 TDs, and Jim the Vampire, who actually averaged the greater number of yards per carry between the two with 4.7. FB Ben Alexander-Arnold is earning TPE at a pretty steady pace and figures to be an above average player at the position given the small number in the league, and they have a strong OL led by my old KCC teammates Archstone and Quigley in the 700-800 TPE range. With Watts now the highest TPE RB in the league, I think the Austin offense will remain committed to the run and perhaps even double down, pushing Watts among the top tier of fantasy RBs with an outside shot at RB1.
Baltimore Hawks
S28 Passing: 677 attempts (4th), 4314 yards (11th), 80 rating (14th)
S28 Rushing: 324 attempts (10th), 1098 yards (13th), 3.4 yards per carry (14th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
Baltimore's offense was very inefficient last season, and its passing offense looks to perhaps be even worse with the midseason departure of WR Messi (now a SAR TE) and the regression of IA QB Skywalker. They feature 3 receiving options starting to hit their stride in TPE, with newly converted Preston Parker (swapped to WR from RB) leading the way at 536 TPE, followed closely by Quick at 510 and Badger at 467. TE Mahi'ai also had a strong rookie season with 500 receiving yards and 2 TDs as an immediate callup, so look fo rhim to have continued impact as well. RB Goose gets plenty of work in the passing game as well, ranking 5th among RBs in receiving yards last season with 556 and 3 TDs. Despite the regression at QB, I figure Baltimore to continue its emphasis on the passing attack given its lackluster rushing options and variety of options including TE and RB.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME
Having lost Parker to the aforementioned position swap, Baltimore's rushing attack is now clearly the territory of RB Goose at 521 TPE, with immediate callup rookie RB King unlikely to yield consistent performances at only 348 TPE. As I said before, given the position swap I feel that this position group is in about the same position as last season and it's unlikely that Baltimore will place too much more emphasis on their rushing attack than last season.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
S28 Passing: 621 attempts (7th), 4973 yards (3rd), 96 rating (4th)
S28 Rushing: 323 attempts (11th), 1354 yards (9th), 4.2 yards per carry (9th)
S29 Passing Outlook: BETTER
Last season, Berlin featured a slow tempo game replete with quick passes, which led their offensive splits to tend much more towards passing than rushing. While a few key offensive pieces have hit regression, they've only undergone the one season of it meaning that their total TPE numbers are not hit that much. In addition, the addition of WR Hood in free agency should give their passing attack a huge boost by creating a third incredible receiving option alongside WR Achtfunf and WR Skiuuup, not to mention TE Boyd. While I don't know that the passing volume will increase very much, the efficiency has a good chance to gain from its already high standing.
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
Meanwhile, although the overall team numbers don't look great, RB King Jr. (another charity name swap from Petrongolo last season) had a strong season with 1100 rushing yards and 12 TDs plus another 500 yards through the air. This will be his peak TPE season (as soon as he does his rare update...) and Berlin can support him with a strong OL led by 1081 TPE Krause and a strong blocking TE in Boyd. I'm extremely high on Berlin this season and I do think they have the potential to be one of the best fantasy scoring offenses this season due to their multitude of threats on both the air and ground.
Chicago Butchers
S28 Passing: 633 attempts (6th), 4956 yards (4th), 85 rating (11th)
S28 Rushing: 331 attempts (8th), 1383 yards (8th), 4.2 yards per carry (8th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Since last season, when Chicago was towards the bottom of passing offenses in the league regarding efficiency, the following things have happened: QB O'Donnell, RB Yoda, and TE Gelbman underwent regression for the second time, WR Campbell left in free agency, OL Bayley Jr. retired., and OL Rubbe regressed below the DSFL cap. Luckily Scabbia is still there as a primary receiving option, but besides that there isn't much to look for in terms of fantasy options.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME
Hayes looks to build on a strong rookie season now that they are the top TPE option in the backfield. As a rookie, they rushed for 720 yards and 11 TDs at 3.9 yards per carry. The efficiency wasn't stellar, so that can definitely improve, but the TD numbers seem quite high to repeat especially with an offense that's lost a lot of other weapons. With fewer red zone opportunities, I expect Hayes to return to earth a bit in that category. The strong OL will definitely help even if it is suffering a bit from the loss of a few pieces.
Colorado Yeti
S28 Passing: 775 attempts (1st), 5668 yards (1st), 95 rating (6th)
S28 Rushing: 246 attempts (14th), 1078 yards (14th), 4.4 yards per carry (4th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME(-?)
There is no reason that Colorado should be passing this much. The team still performs fine because it is a very strong collection of high TPE players at important positions, but I think it's hard to argue after scraping into the playoffs in S27 and finishing at .500 in S28 that the one-dimensional offense they've adopted since the sim transfer is maximizing the talent on the team. I have no expectations that they will start doing anything differently as they've been rewarded with a ton of awards thanks to staggering volume numbers, so once again the team remains a good source for fantasy options. But you never know, maybe the GMs will stop being stubborn and open their mind to the possibility of other offensive approaches, so there's a bit of risk here.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME(+?)
Underutilized RB Gilbert underwent regression this past offseason but still sits at a healthy 1072 TPE. Luckily for our fantasy purposes but unluckily for backup RB Dad, the backfield split is extremely lopsided, with Gilbert receiving 203 of the 246 rushing attempts on the team last season, good for 934 yards and 6 TDs, and supplemented of course by some solid passing numbers with 461 yards and 4 TDs. Gilbert should be solid and has some upside if the team decides to run the ball more.
Honolulu Hahalua
S28 Passing: 718 attempts (2nd), 4633 yards (6th), 85 rating (12th)
S28 Rushing: 325 attempts (9th), 1320 yards (10th), 4.1 yards per carry (11th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Honolulu lost QB Fujiwara to regression, replacing her with S27 Ultimini winner rookie QB Christ Jr. With just 635 TPE he is almost guaranteed to struggle through the season. He has some solid receiving options to throw to, with longtime senddown WR Kendrick-Watts starting his rookie season above 700 TPE, and Ayers and Kai both being strong options in the receiving game. There will definitely be a reduced focus on this aspect of the team with a QB that young, though.
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
Meanwhile, the run game figures to be a strong identity for the Hahalua on offense this season. Their attempts and efficiency last season suffered thanks to the focus on passing, but I think they can rely on Ayers especially to carry a lot of the rushing workload, with Kai supplementing and leading in receiving usage. The OL is a bit of a problem spot, but they also have a solid TE in Krashwagen and FB Hex to help pave the way. While they may still not be the most efficient team, especially due to weaknesses on OL where they will have two <300 users starting after position swaps, I think rushing attempts will have to skyrocket due to the weakness at the QB position.
New Orleans Second Line
S28 Passing: 652 attempts (5th), 4645 yards (5th), 91 rating (6th)
S28 Rushing: 297 attempts (12th), 3.7 yards per carry (13th)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
While Slothlisberger hit regression this past offseason, he is still at totally serviceable TPE. The bigger concern for the team is their receiving options, as Barker regressed for the second time, which means WR Bodenhamer actually currently leads the WR corps in TPE. Former WR Spencer will swap to TE to fill the hole left by McCormick's retirement. It's still a solid receiving group, but definitely not quite the same NOLA passing attack that we're used to. However I figure it will still be the team's focus thanks to....
S29 Rushing Outlook: WORSE
Committee leading RB Botty retired prior to the Ultimus, meaning that NOLA will not have access to his corpse this season. This leaves them with RB Rotchburns and rookie RB Roman as their rushing duo, which unfortunately will be one of the worse attacks in the league. Rotchburns's user Schoolboy Shue does seem to be updating recently so there is some hope, but I expect that New Orleans will have about similar efficiency numbers as last season when they do try to run it. The one upside is that Rotchburns is a clearer committee leader so he'll receive a more predictably large bulk of the carries, maybe? I would avoid touching this.
New York Silverbacks
S28 Passing: 539 attempts (13th), 4089 yards (13th), 90 rating (9th)
S28 Rushing: 432 attempts (3rd), 1668 yards (5th), 3.9 yards per carry (12th)
S29 Passing Outlook: BETTER
New York figures to look completely different on offense next season thanks to their midseason splash trade for WR Tugg Speedmann. After trading for him over the last 5 weeks of the season, New York flipped the script on offense thanks to their new weapon and averaged 38 pass attempts per game, which would pan out to 611 attempts over the course of a 16 game season. WR Kingston will lead the way, and TE Wilkinson is reaching the point of being a reliable option as well.
S29 Rushing Outlook: WORSE
While I definitely respect the dedication to the run, New York might have gone a bit overboard with it last season given their subpar stable of rushing options in RB Rogers and Torres. Rogers remains the lead back but has yet to crack 1000 TPE, while the Silverbacks have found a very minor upgrade at RB2 by calling up Brondon Price Brandon Prince from Bondi Beach. These two will have the road paved for them by the best fullback in the league, the legend himself Buster Bawlls, as well as a strong OL with three S25 options and two T4 bots. I think Rogers will remain a viable fantasy option especially given how clearly he leads this backfield in TPE, but the focus of this team is going to be passing next season and Rogers will suffer a bit for that.
Orange County Otters
S28 Passing: 699 attempts (3rd), 4975 yards (2nd), 89 rating (10th)
S28 Rushing: 287 attempts (13th), 1244 yards (11th), 4.3 yards per carry (6th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Despite a low efficiency passing last season, Ramza was definitely a great fantasy QB with almost 5000 yards passing and 32 TDs. However, this season they figure to be a bit worse with QB Ramza undergoing the first pass at regression as well as his top receiving options WR Despacito Jr and TE Evans. However, the biggest change is that the rushing attack should be much more formidable next season, allowing the team to actually choose its offensive strategy rather than being pigeonholed by lack of good running backs, so I expect the volume to decrease some. But maybe efficiency will rise some to counteract that thanks to teams being less able to focus on their one-dimensional offense?
S29 Rushing Outlook: BETTER
GOAT TANK. The meme has swapped to RB, although he frustratingly chose the Speed Back archetype when a Power Back build would obviously be more befitting a former defensive lineman. Top OL Trunks is suffering from regression, but they still have a solid line blocking for him and FB Mills to assist in clearing the way. Given how little they ran it last season it wouldn't take a lot to improve the team's running outlook, and I think Goat Tank swapping to RB is a lot.
Philadelphia Liberty
S28 Passing: 527 attempts (14th), 3508 yards (14th), 84 rating (13th)
S28 Rushing: 475 attempts (1st), 2058 yards (1st), 4.3 yards per carry (5th)
S29 Passing Outlook: BETTER
The S28 Liberty is the type of team I imagine when I think about Honolulu next season with their rookie QB. However, Negs is much improved on last season and will only continue to get better over the course of the season. For comparison's sake, he's currently rivaling Chicago QB O'Donnell in TPE. This, combined with standout RB Williams's retirement, means that the passing offense can take on more of the workload. With WR Panda feeling the effects of regression, this clears a path for WR Chambers to be the focus of the passing offense, so be on the lookout for a breakout year from him. WR Asui and TE San Lorenzo will also provide a diversity of targets for Negs to throw to.
S29 Rushing Outlook: WORSE
RB Williams was one of my biggest risks in last season's fantasy rankings, and he paid off pretty well, amassing over 1000 yards rushing at 5.1 yards per carry and 16 TDs. Unfortunately, he gone, and last season's backup RB Christiansen will take over. He had solid efficiency last season, with 4.1 yards per carry on 150 attempts, but it's definitely a step down and will move some of the focus over to the passing game as I mentioned earlier. RB Jackson will join to supplement the rushing attack but doesn't figure to be a major threat immediately.
San Jose Sabercats
S28 Passing: 578 attempts (10th), 4583 yards (7th), 100 rating (1st)
S28 Rushing: 403 attempts (4th), 1683 yards (4th), 4.2 yards per carry (7th)
S29 Passing Outlook: WORSE
Regression hit QB Monty Jack somewhat hard, knocking him all the way down to 9th in the QB TPE rankings, just ahead of Daytona. They lost WR Hood to free agency and WR Speedman to trade, but obtained WR Campbell in free agency themselves to offset those a bit. WR Crossley is a solid second option, and TE Lewandowski comes off a nice season but has undergone regression a second time. Overall this looks like a depleted passing attack compared to the recent few seasons and I think the loss of Hood in particular will hurt a lot. Campbell had a great season last year as WR2 with Scabbia opposite, but I'm unsure if they can retain some ridiculous rate stats, let alone facing harder matchups as WR1.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME+
Having traded away RB Cardrissian last season and gotten IA RB Vermillion in return, star RB Lackson has less backup than you would want for a team that figures to be as run heavy as San Jose. I think Lackson will look like a supercharged version of Hayes, having to carry a lot of the load on offense but at least being much more up to the task. Lack of scoring and ability for opposing teams to focus on him may be concerns, though. The OL also doesn't look to be great, and they have no FB to help Lewandowski block, who is himself not the best suited to that role.
Sarasota Sailfish
S28 Passing: 595 attempts (9th), 4426 yards (10th), 97 rating (3rd)
S28 Rushing: 375 attempts (6th), 1766 yards (3rd), 4.7 yards per carry (2nd)
S29 Passing Outlook: SAME
The loss of WR Witheblock (who swapped to LB) is definitely a concern, but WR J'Vathon put up quite solid numbers last season and TE Angler figures once again to be a huge factor in the passing game, having eclipsed 1000 receiving yards each of the last two seasons. Young WRs Spence and Radetzky as well as TE Messi round out the receiving corps, and RB Ichinose (formerly Chan, formerly Frost... what a weeb) has performed well in a pass catching role as well. It won't look quite the same as previous seasons but I'm confident that the Sailfish can replicate their passing performance from last season, which isn't too hard a mark to meet given below average attempts and yards although strong efficiency numbers. The OL also looks to take some pressure off of Boss Jr with big additions of Bob Bob and LBJ3 as well as the continued improvement of young tackle Stumpy Jones.
S29 Rushing Outlook: SAME-
While Ichinose has gone through two regressions now, they still rank 6th among RBs in TPE and should be a strong offensive option for the team. The Sailfish's improvement at OL should pay dividends here as well, and they remain committed to the run by rostering two TEs and a FB as well. Frost's anime player may no longer be quite the same top top option as they have been the past few years, but should still be a strong consideration for a top pick in fantasy.
Yellowknife Wraiths
S28 Passing: 615 attempts (8th), 4524 yards (8th), 94 rating (7th)
S28 Rushing: 337 attempts (7th), 1563 yards (7th), 4.6 yards per carry (3rd)
S29 Passing Outlook: MORE
While the Wraiths were an extremely balanced (and average) team last season, that figures not to be the case this season as RB Skyline enters regression and their backup will be immediate callup RB Cue Jr. starting the season at less than 400 TPE. QB Jack should still be among the top passers in the league by TPE and he'll have great options to throw to with Sakura and Walker being joined by IA signing Jeeta as WR3 and TE Rechs hoping to follow up on his TEotY performance from last season.
S29 Rushing Outlook: LESS
Like I said, the running options simply aren't there for Yellowknife in the way that they've grown accustomed to. While their OL is led by star OL Buckley and TE Rechs is a plus blocker, the rest of the line is filled out by acceptable quality T3 bots, so I don't have high hopes for the blocking to pave the way for a great rushing attack this season.
Positional Rankings
I'll be editing these minorly depending on how my thinking changes. * indicates someone who's moved since the initial rankings came out.
QB
TIER 1
1. Mattathias Caliban
2. Nicholas Kaepercolin
TIER 2
3. Colby Jack
4. Suleiman Ramza
TIER 3
5. Charlemagne Cortez
6. Ben Slothlisberger
7. Sam Howitzer
Potential waiver breakout: Jackie Daytona
RB
TIER 1
1. Tatsu Nakamura
TIER 2
2. Zoe Watts
3. *Chizuru Ichinose (Prev: 4)
4. *Danny King Jr. (Prev: 5)
5. *Jamar Lackson (Prev: 3)
TIER 3
6. Goat Tank
7. Richard Gilbert
8. Nicholas Ayers
9. Captain Rogers
10. Acura Skyline
TIER 4
11. Madison Hayes
12. Busch Goose
13. Cobra Kai
14. Deadly Memes
15. Anders Christiansen
Potential waiver breakout: Mike Rotchburns
WR
TIER 1
1. William Lim
TIER 2
2. Tychondrius Hood
3. Videl-San
4. Kai Sakura
5. Jackson Kingston
TIER 3
6. Ed Barker
7. Taro Raimon
8. Owen Holloway
9. Raphael Delacour
10. Luca Scabbia
11. Tre'Darius J'Vathon
TIER 4
12. Joshua Campbell
13. Mark Walker
14. Killian Chambers
15. Garfield Despacito Jr.
16. Achtfunf
17. Tugg Speedman
Potential waiver breakout: Brock Bodenhamer
TE
TIER 1
1. James Angler
2. Heath Evans
TIER 2
3. Clark Boyd
4. Zee Rechs
TIER 3
5. Adam Spencer
6. James Lewandowski
7. Tree Gelbman
Potential waiver breakout: James Wilkinson (Again! I still believe!)
OL
TIER 1
1. Matt Krause
2. Bruce Buckley
3. Adam Mellott
TIER 2
4. Julio Jones
5. Felix Archstone
6. Calvin Golladay
7. Mo "Mamba" Magic
Potential waiver breakout: Alexander Franklin
K/P
TIER 1
1. Danny King
2. Blago Kokot
3. Dougie Smalls
TIER 2
4. Matthew McDairmid
5. Jacob Small
6. Cade York
7. Sam Sidekick
Potential waiver breakout: Leo Bloomfield (But don't use your waiver priority on kickers, probably...)
DEFENSE
TIER 1
1. New York Silverbacks
2. Austin Copperheads
3. Sarasota Sailfish
TIER 2
4. Berlin Fire Salamanders
5. Arizona Outlaws
6. Colorado Yeti
7. Orange County Otters
Thank you so much for reading! Best of luck in your fantasy drafts, everyone.