If there is a single team that has defied projections, performance, analysis, and expectation in the ISFL this season, it's Austin. Not the Second Line managing to win 4 games over their best competition and faltering everywhere else, not the Yeti in the lead for the NSFC, not even the over .500 Sabercats. It's by far Austin, who went into the season testing the 2nd best among all teams in the ASFC with a shade under 11 wins on average according to the testers in my own locker room, and a team who the Casino set the Over/Under at 10.5. Instead, they are currently on a 9 game winless streak that, if this league used Morale, would probably have Austin's close to as low as possible.
If I were to show any score that occurred this season to Austin's locker room before the season started, I'd guess that only a couple would actually look out of place. Maybe Berlin putting up a 50 burger on a defense that should have been one of the best in the league would be surprising, but other than that only 2 results would be a massive shock: Losing to NOLA 24-20, and tying the Sabercats 26-26. Berlin, Sarasota, and Arizona are all better teams and losing to any of those teams would not be a massive shock to Austin. Orange County and New York are both around the same level, slightly worse than Austin but not by so much that losing to them would be a massive shock to Austin. Finally, Colorado are a team that run a strategy that can beat any team in the league but lose to any team in the league, and as such, all that Colorado beating Austin really means is that the roulette table landed on Red that day. The problem for Austin is that all of these results occurred at once.
So what's the problem? I personally think it can squarely be put on the Defense. Austin has more TPE on their defense than any other team in the league. They have 3 linebackers over 1150 TPE, 3 members of the secondary over 1000, and a guy on the D line with over 1300 TPE. The only weak spot their D has is that nobody else on their D line has more than 650 TPE. This weakness has actually reared its head to a massive degree this season: only one team gives up more yards on the ground per game (NOLA, 121.2 to 116.0 rushing yards per game). They are actually one of the best teams in the league at defending against the pass, only the Outlaws and the Second Line are better on that front, but the Copperheads still end up in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. This also happens to be a defense that breaks when it bends, and has given up the 2nd most points of any team in the league, 30 per game, only 3 total behind the Hawks. Once again, this is the highest TPE defense and the highest TPE unit in the entire league, and they've given up 3 less points than a unit with 2/3rds their TPE. And that's the only team that's worse than them this season.
The good news for Austin is that they have, finally, reached the easy part of their schedule. Of their final 6 games, only one is against a team that is definitely better than them (week 13 in Arizona), and they only have one other game against a team in their same ballpark (week 14 vs the Silverbacks). Besides that, their lone NSFC game is against the Hawks, and they face the Second Line, the Hahalua, and the Sabercats. However, it's as close to too late as possible for Austin at this point. Thanks to the tie with the Sabercats, they are currently 4.5 games behind the 3rd place Otters at this time. They are also 4 games behind the 4th place Sabercats. That being said, this still doesn't look very good and is actually worse than it looks, mainly due to the Sabercats and the Otters playing each other.
So, what's the damage? If the Sabercats win against the Otters, then Austin's slimmest of chances get a bit better: In the process of winning out as they pretty much must do, Austin will gain the head to head tiebreaker over the Sabercats, meaning that Austin needs to gain 3 games over the 4 remaining weeks that don't involve head to head matchups. This actually feels doable on the Sabercats side; their 4 other games are against Berlin, Arizona, Honolulu, and New Orleans. 2 of those games will have them as heavy underdogs and NOLA has already proven its ability to upset hopeful playoff contenders. Meanwhile, Austin will also have to gain 4 more games on the Otters in the 5 weeks not involving the Sabercats game. The Otters have an easier schedule than the Sabercats, exchanging games against Austin and Berlin for games against Yellowknife and New York. Orange County still has those couple of games they will be decent favorites in against Honolulu and New Orleans. Still, I can personally see the Otters losing against both Yellowknife and New York, and New Orleans already beat the Otters once already this season. The magic number of Otters wins or Sabercats wins + Copperheads losses that will eliminate Austin in this scenario is 2.
What about if the Otters beat the Sabercats? Things are much more simple: the magic number falls to 1. The Otters winning one more game would give them 8 wins, a total the Copperheads cannot reach. However, they do get a bit of leeway in the Sabercats department. The Sabercats could go 2-2 over their 4 games against HON, NOLA, BER, and AZ, and the Copperheads would tie them in record and win the tiebreaker. So, does Austin really have a chance to make the playoffs? I think it's vanishingly unlikely. It would require Austin simultaneously winning all their remaining games, with the Sabercats and Otters losing all of THEIR remaining games, with a single game of leeway (an Austin Loss), 2 games of leeway (Sabercats win scenario), or flat out zero margin for error if the Otters win a game they'll be favored in. Even an Otters tie would be enough to eliminate Austin in that scenario.
While Austin's season is on the verge of being lost, they won't suffer as much from regression as some other teams: They have 5 S22 players and 4 S23 players, and almost half of their regressing players have enough TPE to still be elite after their next hit of regression. Still, this has got to be a disappointment for a team who went to the Ultimus last season.
If I were to show any score that occurred this season to Austin's locker room before the season started, I'd guess that only a couple would actually look out of place. Maybe Berlin putting up a 50 burger on a defense that should have been one of the best in the league would be surprising, but other than that only 2 results would be a massive shock: Losing to NOLA 24-20, and tying the Sabercats 26-26. Berlin, Sarasota, and Arizona are all better teams and losing to any of those teams would not be a massive shock to Austin. Orange County and New York are both around the same level, slightly worse than Austin but not by so much that losing to them would be a massive shock to Austin. Finally, Colorado are a team that run a strategy that can beat any team in the league but lose to any team in the league, and as such, all that Colorado beating Austin really means is that the roulette table landed on Red that day. The problem for Austin is that all of these results occurred at once.
So what's the problem? I personally think it can squarely be put on the Defense. Austin has more TPE on their defense than any other team in the league. They have 3 linebackers over 1150 TPE, 3 members of the secondary over 1000, and a guy on the D line with over 1300 TPE. The only weak spot their D has is that nobody else on their D line has more than 650 TPE. This weakness has actually reared its head to a massive degree this season: only one team gives up more yards on the ground per game (NOLA, 121.2 to 116.0 rushing yards per game). They are actually one of the best teams in the league at defending against the pass, only the Outlaws and the Second Line are better on that front, but the Copperheads still end up in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. This also happens to be a defense that breaks when it bends, and has given up the 2nd most points of any team in the league, 30 per game, only 3 total behind the Hawks. Once again, this is the highest TPE defense and the highest TPE unit in the entire league, and they've given up 3 less points than a unit with 2/3rds their TPE. And that's the only team that's worse than them this season.
The good news for Austin is that they have, finally, reached the easy part of their schedule. Of their final 6 games, only one is against a team that is definitely better than them (week 13 in Arizona), and they only have one other game against a team in their same ballpark (week 14 vs the Silverbacks). Besides that, their lone NSFC game is against the Hawks, and they face the Second Line, the Hahalua, and the Sabercats. However, it's as close to too late as possible for Austin at this point. Thanks to the tie with the Sabercats, they are currently 4.5 games behind the 3rd place Otters at this time. They are also 4 games behind the 4th place Sabercats. That being said, this still doesn't look very good and is actually worse than it looks, mainly due to the Sabercats and the Otters playing each other.
So, what's the damage? If the Sabercats win against the Otters, then Austin's slimmest of chances get a bit better: In the process of winning out as they pretty much must do, Austin will gain the head to head tiebreaker over the Sabercats, meaning that Austin needs to gain 3 games over the 4 remaining weeks that don't involve head to head matchups. This actually feels doable on the Sabercats side; their 4 other games are against Berlin, Arizona, Honolulu, and New Orleans. 2 of those games will have them as heavy underdogs and NOLA has already proven its ability to upset hopeful playoff contenders. Meanwhile, Austin will also have to gain 4 more games on the Otters in the 5 weeks not involving the Sabercats game. The Otters have an easier schedule than the Sabercats, exchanging games against Austin and Berlin for games against Yellowknife and New York. Orange County still has those couple of games they will be decent favorites in against Honolulu and New Orleans. Still, I can personally see the Otters losing against both Yellowknife and New York, and New Orleans already beat the Otters once already this season. The magic number of Otters wins or Sabercats wins + Copperheads losses that will eliminate Austin in this scenario is 2.
What about if the Otters beat the Sabercats? Things are much more simple: the magic number falls to 1. The Otters winning one more game would give them 8 wins, a total the Copperheads cannot reach. However, they do get a bit of leeway in the Sabercats department. The Sabercats could go 2-2 over their 4 games against HON, NOLA, BER, and AZ, and the Copperheads would tie them in record and win the tiebreaker. So, does Austin really have a chance to make the playoffs? I think it's vanishingly unlikely. It would require Austin simultaneously winning all their remaining games, with the Sabercats and Otters losing all of THEIR remaining games, with a single game of leeway (an Austin Loss), 2 games of leeway (Sabercats win scenario), or flat out zero margin for error if the Otters win a game they'll be favored in. Even an Otters tie would be enough to eliminate Austin in that scenario.
While Austin's season is on the verge of being lost, they won't suffer as much from regression as some other teams: They have 5 S22 players and 4 S23 players, and almost half of their regressing players have enough TPE to still be elite after their next hit of regression. Still, this has got to be a disappointment for a team who went to the Ultimus last season.